According to the report, only 35% of the domestic equity funds that ranked in the top half among peers for their performance from June 2015 to June 2016 were able to replicate that accomplishment in the following year, and just 16% did so annually through June 2020.
That’s not an anomaly: S&P Global’s reports from previous years all had similar if not worse results. For example, only 32% of the top-half funds from September 2012 to September 2013 did it again in the next year, and less than 4% managed to stay in the cohort annually through September 2017.
Statistically speaking, the odds that a random fund could remain in the top half for four consecutive years is 6.25% meaning an outperforming fund sometimes has a smaller chance of achieving future success than a random one.