University of California - Riverside
Sometimes, the “gate” stops earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range, while ones that pass through the gate grow to magnitude 8 or greater, releasing over 32 times as much energy as a magnitude 7.
“An earthquake gate is like someone directing traffic at a one-lane construction zone. Sometimes you pull up and get a green ‘go’ sign, other times you have a red ‘stop’ sign until conditions change,” said UC Riverside geologist Nicolas Barth.
Researchers learned about this gate while studying New Zealand’s Alpine Fault, which they determined has about a 75 percent chance of producing a damaging earthquake within the next 50 years. The modeling also suggests this next earthquake has an 82 percent chance of rupturing through the gate and being magnitude 8 or greater. These insights are now published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
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“From the record of past earthquakes, we can determine that the probability of a magnitude-7 or higher event is about 75 per cent in the next 50 years. So we now know the chances of seeing a large Alpine Fault earthquake in our lifetime are better than a coin toss. That is a really significant result, but we can’t forecast the magnitude of the next event from these data alone,’ Howarth said. One of the researchers’ findings is that a curious “earthquake gate” on the fault south of Jackson Bay, near Martyr River, appears to determine how large an Alpine Fault earthquake gets.
Victoria University of Wellington law professor Gordon Anderson said companies might be able to dismiss employees stuck across the Tasman, but courts or the Employment Relations Authority would likely set a high bar for such an action. Whether it would go as far as allowing you to sack people would be a bit tricky because can they then sack you if you go on an Adventure Holiday to Mt Cook, break your leg and are in hospital for three weeks? If they take any disciplinary action against you it has to be what a reasonable employer would do in all of the circumstances.
Press Release – New Zealand Government New research into the probability of an Alpine Fault rupture reinforces the importance of taking action to plan and prepare for earthquakes, Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi says. Research published by Dr Jamie Howarth of Te Herenga …
New research into the probability of an Alpine Fault rupture reinforces the importance of taking action to plan and prepare for earthquakes, Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi says.
Research published by Dr Jamie Howarth of Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University of Wellington today, shows there is a 75 per cent probability of the Alpine Fault rupturing over the next 50 years, up from around 30 per cent. The research also calculates there is about an 82 percent chance that such an earthquake would be magnitude 8 or higher.