Some more details from Newsquawk
ADP PAYROLLS: Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, the ADP’s gauge of payrolls showed 692k jobs being added to the US economy in June, above the forecasted 600k, but below May’s figure which was revised lower to 886k from 978k. Pantheon Macroeconomics hoped for a greater increase, based on the Homebase employment data, suggesting the signal for Friday’s NFP release is unclear. Pantheon highlights the ADP’s measure was short of the official payroll data for most of the pandemic, but it suddenly overshot in April and May, adding that the change was likely due to ADP’s model overstating the strength of macroeconomic variables (retail sales and jobless claims) while ignoring the labor supply shortfall. As such, payrolls growth has not kept pace with demand due to the participation rate remaining lower. Looking ahead, PM writes, “if the new pattern continues for June, Friday’s print will only be about 200K, but that would be wildly at odds with
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Yves here. The cheerleading about the recovery is turned up loud, when unemployment is still high and we’re soon going to see an eviction wave begin (moving costs money even when you are broke). And remember that even in the old normal, there was lots of involuntary part time employment and the jobs created were mainly McJobs.
In February, “households” reported that 150.2 million people were working – including gig workers – bringing the number of working people back to a level first seen in December 2015 (red line in the chart below), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report this morning. This was up by 208,000 from January. Over the four months since October, households reported an increase of 570,000 jobs.