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The headlines are bleak: Regions of our planet becoming uninhabitably hot (1), crippling droughts, wildfires, and floods, collapsing ecosystems. Extreme climate change, models suggest, is likely if nations continue to increase emissions at close to their current rate, with global average temperature rises of at least 1.1 to 3.1 °C by 2100.
Integrated assessment models have long made dire predictions about climate change and its myriad impacts. Some researchers would like to see more transparency in how these models are devised. Image credit: ( Clockwise from Top Left ) Shutterstock/ccpixx photography, Zenobillis, Witsawat.S, and Christian Roberts-Olsen.
Such warming is probably enough to trigger planetary tipping points, says Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, NY. “We may hit a threshold even with [low emissions],” Schmidt says. “We are at the top of the [ski] mountain and there’s only black runs. And we ve got to hope th