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The Fixed Income Conundrum: Part I Understanding the Challenge
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Three Reasons for Economic Growth and Higher Equity Prices
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How to Navigate the Largest Economic Stimulus in U.S. History January 20, 2021
Between the massive fiscal response and dramatic monetary policy actions, we think that the U.S. government’s response to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will ultimately be judged as the largest economic stimulus in our history based on total inflation-adjusted dollars. For example, consider the inflation adjusted dollars that the federal government spent over the entirety of World War II and the single year 2020 fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. spent roughly $4.1 trillion over the nearly four years of direct involvement in World War II. In 2020 alone, the federal government already spent over $3.7 trillion with more likely to come in 2021. The monetary response from the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been significant as well with approximately $3 trillion of asset purchases and other facilities made available in response to the pandemic.
December 28, 2020
January 2021 will mark the transition to the Biden administration and with it former Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen as Biden’s nominee for Secretary of the Treasury. With any change in power, there are positives and negatives that need to be considered as the information we have in making investment decisions and managing risk evolves. Since this transition occurs in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, it will also have implications for those states that are struggling to balance their budgets while keeping their economies growing.
Both Republicans and Democrats have come together this year to quickly direct aid packages to Americans negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, there are some differences of opinion when it comes to aid for states that have not been fiscally responsible prior to the pandemic. The debates between opinions could go on and on, and we have no opinions or political stance. We can, however, objectively look at what the
December 14, 2020
Our work suggests that there are many reasons to be optimistic about the broad economy going into 2021. In this article, we will focus on three. First, monetary and broad financial conditions, which are our primary forecasting tools, look very healthy. For example, after spiking to reflect the difficult conditions during the lockdowns this past spring, the Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index has settled down to more normal levels. We think this quick recovery in financial conditions has been a major contributor to the broader economic recovery we have seen thus far. Furthermore, we expect that the recession of 2020 will be judged as the shortest recession since records began in 1854.
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