Youll be in to go build United States we will not be with you we meet with global news makers the stories that matter just 0. Hello im daryn jordan this is counting the cost on aljazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week its the 1st nation in lockdown in europe after a spike in deaths from the coronavirus maybe the worlds biggest economy but growth has been anemic over the last 20 years so will it need a eurozone bailout. Plants employing 14000000 people across europe are shutting down we talked to b. M. W. About the future of the industry. And up to spending the cash on stock buybacks to make shareholders richer airlines are begging for bailouts. Well the worlds biggest economy and its 60000000 citizens are under lockdown italy became the 1st european nation to introduce drastic measures to control the spread of the corona virus outside of china italy has recorded the most deaths from the virus schools have been closed shops have been shuttered businesses are winding down nonessential work and transport hubs of ground to a halt. Well the Italian Government has pledged 28000000000. 00 to ease the burden of the pandemic that includes helping companies homeowners with their mortgage payments and people losing their jobs well its only really needs all the support it can get right now its never really recovered from europes debt crisis its debt stands close to 135 percent of g. D. P. And growth since the introduction of the euro almost 20 years ago has barely grown well such is the dire state of its economy recession is looming and theres been warnings that it may need to seek a bailout from the euro zone and even the i. M. F. So lets put this all together with lorenzo called dont you know chief economist at l. C. Macro advisors he joins us via skype from chislehurst in the u. K. Lorenzo as weve mentioned the Italian Economy has barely grown over the past 20 years or so what sort of impact do you think coronavirus will now have on the Italian Economy. I think were talking about Something Like a 5 percent contraction in the current year it could be even more so its pretty sizable and probably would be very concentrated in the in the months saying which. There were restrictions on mobility so march april and possibly even may this is on the assumption that by july most of the Economic Impact is over and the renzo many experts say the economy hadnt really recovered from the financial crisis is that your assessment indeed i mean it does he suffered tremendously from the 2011 sovereign debt crisis and since then the credit has not really grown that much or the economy has continued to struggle to past decent growth and so it comes this kind of shock when the economy still somewhat fragile. There and so its really is huge dent has been a longstanding concern having to mean that been suggestions from economists it may need and it may need to seek help possibly some badly needed cash from the Eurozone Bailout Fund and maybe even the i. M. F. You know what italy needs right now is to have the possibility to use the fiscal. Leverage and and fight the downturn in demand. And spend related to the spreading of the virus we doubt that by doing too much about the finance inside so the only way to achieve that is through some some sort of safety net if you want to so the c. B. E. And possibly even the s. M. In the future and making sure that the cost of borrowing doesnt go up or if the cost of orange thats a blow out of the telly and that might be going to see to have sustainable because it. Italy has a primary socialist last year was 1. 7 percent of g. D. P. The problem is that if the cost of borrowing increases shapley then that italy would enter into a problem its its an interesting point lorenzo you make about the e. C. B. Because do you think the European Central bank has done enough its only and for europe as a whole well i think of the city was a bit late in responding to the to the crisis 2 but last came up with broad based and comprehensive package the only problem with that package was 1st that. The president like got. Messed it up with communication mistake referring to the spreads but that was just a communication mistake and secondly that the Asset Purchase Program was limited both in terms of the amount and in terms of time b. C. B. Decided to fix this problem in other words now there is a massive package its a big bazooka if you want. The e. C. B. Also easiest easy is the legal requirements for the bonds and that provides more flexibility also in the use of collateral so i think that this is the big bazooka and i think this will says this time realize Financial Markets of course cannot do much for the economy so i think the economy will be stabilizing the sense that there wont be exponential grices and this is good news in itself but also on the government side they need to be prompt action to support demanding the near term and make sure that there is no damage on the supply side and this can only be done maybe with a credit line from the s. N. All right lorenzo kidani a thank you very much indeed for talking to counting the cost thank you. Now a company with huge breach b. M. W. With a presence in china the epicenter of the pandemic has ceased production and warned it wont hit profit targets this year aljazeera is economics editor of a daily caught up with b. M. W. Board member peter not a he began by asking about those plant closures because of corona we will run down all of our effect trees in europe and that is also to follow the mom because we see of course across the globe but now also particularly in europe many countries closing down infected dealerships in italy france and also other European Countries are closing down and thats why we also just our production we did also guide on sales and earnings saying that we expect sales due to corona actually to be significantly below 20. 19 and also that on earnings on even in the automotive sector and we expect a significant. Just meant there as well so nevertheless and its important to say that there is time during corona like we are in today but there will also be a time after corona so we also expressed confidence about our ability to drive the transformation the out motive industry we are investing significantly also with coronado we plan to invest significantly in future technologies we believe the future lies in excellent technologies we will drive the mobility of tomorrow and we plan to invest up to 30000000000 euros. And until 2025 i want to come to intellectual occasion in a few moments but tell me how long do you think the factories being closed fall well so far we actually announced. To close to factories in europe until mid april around mid april but of course the Current Situation is very dynamic very volatile so it depends really also on how fast and effective governments are able to actually control and to actually. Get grips on the corona outbreak so lets talk about the investment because he said you can invest there to 1000000000 are you worried about the financial well being of b. M. W. Joe in this job in this process are you concerned that we could see a shakeout in the Auto Industry as a whole because of the question of virus what i can talk about is of course our own group the b. M. W. Group and we have a very solid financial situation we have also very soul its cash position which is important of course indies time we are also taking measures really also to control costs we already have programs in place which will be reinforced now so we are confident that over the coming time period and again there will be a time after corona as well we will be able to sustain those significant investments that are talked about so 30000000000. 00 over 30000000000. 00 until 2025 and that is a significant number do you think the Auto Industry will get the right kinds the poor from governments during this testing time well of course governments around the world also in europe and in germany our whole market have said of course there will be significant capital injections in the markets which of course we welcome but also the b. M. W. Group itself has a solid financial position weve also shown in previous crisis that actually we can come out stronger out of a crisis and actually we went into it so last question say what kind of recovery do you think corona what do you. What do you think the shape of the Auto Industry will be like after the well as 1st say a few words about china in this case because we saw that by concerted action of the Chinese Government a very effective action actually day seem to have gotten control back and we see also after a dip in sales in the month of february in china we see actually already recall very in the months march and we expect actually did also to continue well into april and beyond so it is possible actually to get to grips with this shown by the china example and of course we prepare also certainly towards the 2nd time of this year for. The time after corona b. M. W. Pier to know to theyre talking to al jazeera as economics editor now the pandemic is a big test for latin america is ending economies already struggling on several fronts including the devaluation of its currency soaring inflation and huge unpayable debt so the impact could be devastating for argentina as it was to raise the bar reports from when as iras. Exports are crucial for argentinas economy these days it following currency generated by crops the fund other products i what could help this country fail following debt. But the covert 19 its already having an impact here too you know i mean the. Main market but it may start to recover were now seeing many of our european clients cancel the orders because nobody knows who would buy the beef and know theyre already freezing some of it its a huge problem for us because we depend on exports. This plant so its mostly premium beef to china you are up in the United States and finding client its not easy these days. As the 1000. 00 spreads around the world shows and Public Events are being suspended in argentina in an attempt to contain the virus. Flights are also being cancelled in a country that is already struggling with capital controls double digit inflation and this restructuring foreign debt the government have imposed mandatory isolations on people arriving from europe china and even the United States theyre also considering fining those who do not respect the law and pose a threat to Public Health but even though many believe that argentina could succeed in containing the virus the spread of the virus in this country it is the Economic Situation that has a many people worried here. In the past 2 years most administrations have pinned down their hopes of economic recovery back on one of the one of the largest shale oil and gas reserves in the world but as the local economy deteriorates and worldwide markets tumble investments are being rerouted outside the country we have a common characteristic that is the lead in american countries especially south american ones we export commodities right we export of copper and mean it all seen. Then in the world order business where soil in brazil origin the you know why but i why is soybeans its other types of food so i think we are going to feel the same but we are feeling it right now with a cline the price of commodities saw i believe this is a regional problem but it is going to be more important in the countries who need foreign help us for example the case of argentina. Help that could prevent a default like the one in 2001 that devastated this countrys economy people here are wary of the spread of the covert 19 virus. But the faltering is what hes warning the government the most. And defeat at one site. Well most airlines could be bankrupt by the end of may this is the warning from a stranger center for aviation as governments impose travel bans due to the fast spreading coronavirus many could be technically bankrupt already well before the imposition of those travel bans airlines were expected to lose 113000000000. 00 in revenue this year and thats pushed Many Airlines to see Government Support in the United States airlines have asked for a 50000000000 dollar bailout but critics argue the airlines have mismanaged their finances choosing to spend their cash on buying back shares to enrich shareholders and by doing this theres less stock in the market thereby pushing up prices according to bloomberg u. S. Airlines that used up about 96 percent of their cash on stock buybacks well joining us now via skype from leicester in the u. K. Is poor hes an aviation consultant so what do you make of all of this i mean do you think that some airlines could be bankrupt already or are well on their way to actually filing for bankruptcy. But deron was happy in the industry and so unprecedented in the last few weeks this is the worst crisis since 2008 the financial crisis and the sars outbreak combined now whats happening and 911 of course so if you combine all those 3 incidents we are seeing the worst crisis in the Aviation Industry and inevitably we are going to say some heavy losses across the industry were also going to see. Facing a lot of difficulties in terms sense of keeping that cash flows going a lot of airlines do have crushes its estimated quite a few airlines only had like 2 months or 3 months max cash reserves left so there is a real real concern that were going to see lines folding weve already seen one airline fold in the u. K. Flight be a few weeks ago which is already chronic it was facing difficulties thats the 1st casualty we are expected to see more casualties in the next month or 2 definitely so goodness what can governments do i mean theres talk of relaxing regulations on airlines so they wont lose those new protective takeoff and landing slots but i guess what airlines really want a financial bailout plan that absolutely i dont think the takeoff and landing slots issue its actually an issue right now its more to you know get money pumped into these airlines because whats happening with the airlines is they are laying off staff theyre asking start to take unpaid leave for several weeks or a period of several months so you know what theyre looking for is tax breaks tax breaks on fuel costs which obviously of reduced now. That there are tax taxes that were also looking at pumping money into support salaries which as i say you know people are being forced labor to be laid off and also to keep the airlines running because dont forget this is not just the Airline Industry this is the entire travel and Tourism Industry so 5 percent of global trade relies on the Aviation Industry. And if theres a break in any shape or form in the Aviation Industry thanks the supply chain across the board travel Tourism Hospitality exception so yes the governments need to step in i know it goes against investing put it playing money into private enterprise you know they have to do their own thing they have to work you know their own way however in the Current Situation there is definitely one of the government takes and weve also seen it in the say says you know the u. S. Cares about theosophy or Financial Assistance or white house theres a 50000000000. 00 aid package thats being put into the economy in the u. K. Weve seen 330000000000 pounds worth of money expect to be pumped into the economy some of that will obviously you know go to t. Sectors like travel the tourism of which aviation is a key component desha lets just throw this forward i mean when the dust has settled in all of this do you think this and lead to a shake out of the industry fewer and lines bigger cochairing partnerships for instance i think we will see a shake up you know history is say that history has shown that you know when things like this happen you know you are finding the airlines will shrink in size some airlines wouldnt disappear in terms of shrinking in size and you just explain what happens that if you got stuck 10012000 star of a star 2530 percent of the stuff would probably disappear over the next few weeks or so and it could be very very difficult to cool that 25 percent once the situation gets a lot better so i think what were going to see is in the end to see that there be a bit of cover audrie across the industry. Saying this but i think the whole Industry Needs to Work Together nice to Work Together to go forward and were going to see more and more partnerships because whats going to happen is analyze cannot fly every single route they can to rely on each other just to support each other in partnerships to fly people from a to date and this issue of revenue is very important because i ata believe the airlines could lose Something Like 100. Tiene 1000000000 dollars this year but that was before the travel ban so what do you think now well i think thats a very conservative estimate if you look over the years of the last 10 years revenues have actually increased up to about 860000000000 dollars last year and the the projected figures are 887880 1000000000 dollars next year 28 so this year 2020 now with 113000000000 dollars white off thats the here is shut and again this is just conservative estimates i dont think anybody realizes the severe impact of this that 113. 00 probably just rely on is is is a figure thats been given based on whats been happening the last few weeks but the industry is going to go through more to more over the next few weeks and months so i expect the 113 to be revised to 200 1000000000. 00 up its just a final question to you india is looking to bail out its airlines providing Something Like 1600000000. 00 but the industry there has been in trouble for some time hasnt absolutely its been over capacity in india we saw jet airways collapse last year th