How will africa deal with coronavirus the pandemic is slowly reaching the confidence vote for Public Health infrastructure and an inability to enforce law whats the impact going to be this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im peter know its taken the coronavirus longer to reach africa than other parts of the world but experts are warning of a possible large scale outbreak on the worlds poorest continent of 1200000000 people and if europe or the u. S. Were struggling to contain the pandemic the potential consequences across that continent are possibly devastating if not catastrophic one example mali has 56 ventilators for a population of 17000000 africa is still reporting low numbers of cases compared to europe and china but that could change and change fast coronaviruses reached almost every nation on the continent and as you see there the infection rate and the death rate well they are both increasing for most of the african countries the question now is not how and when do we test but the moment they simply cant the question now is when people start dying. South sudan was the latest african country to report its 1st case on sunday the Public Health laboratory tested and confirmed cases of covered 19 in an individual the said spector presented to the u. N. Clinic on the 2nd april 2020 with fever cough headache and shut ness of breath. The government urges members of the public to strictly observed the rules of social distancing. Well strict measures are already in place in many african countries including south africa rwanda kenya and the democratic republic of congo but social distancing and self isolation are nearly impossible in these informal settlement countries and towns many people also dont have access to soap and water and Healthcare Systems in many african states are among the weakest anywhere in the world malnutrition and disease are already commonplace and aid workers in nigeria and elsewhere say millions of displaced People Living in camps are at risk of becoming infected a nation wide locked in african countries means millions are unable to work thats especially hard on poor people trying to feed their families experts warn up to 10 percent of the continents Gross Domestic Product will be wiped out and many african countries do not have the financial power to counter any economic slump they also face being shut out of debt markets already struggling because of the pandemic world bodies have pledged billions of dollars in Financial Aid for the developing countries but that is unlikely to be enough and some governments are trying to extend aid to the vulnerable and food is being distributed to around one and a half 1000000 ugandans. Ok lets get going lets bring in our guests today there joining us from a budget we have Abdul Salam Mina cd hes the provest of the college of Health Sciences at the university of africa in our state in nigeria in london we have david heyman hes a professor of Infectious Disease epidemiology at the London School of hygiene and tropical medicine and joining us today from nairobi we have david or we are oh hes the founder and Principal Consultant at the Africa Development think tank gentlemen welcome to you all abdul salam in the cd coming to you 1st why is this virus taking longer to get a foothold across the continent of africa. Well this is a very tough question but theres a question of us here asking 1st and foremost maybe we should google it to be to the history of the koran awarenesses it seems the previous and lettuces that cause it to our breaks of such as and is it here i could rest pretty syndrome and break and then the 2nd. Minute is this which is in there must be a break or other book seem to scare africa and it seems. It is either way you know a political factors are some. Other factors or weather maria sure of so also is the noble coronavirus is seems to be going around africa and there digital in cases where ive seen so far connected with imported. Cases from the developed countries of italy and it was kissing the jury and then of cause egypt and their geria and then subsequently from france from. The u. K. Particularly you know that came in the last 2 weeks and there are of course now the us so. We dont know what could be responsible for these and also what the cases address is all for. A few returned to school be. And no due to me be funded the tests been carried out and not. Many because of lack of ok. Is sufficient to systems ok lets go to nairobi david a widow if its taking its time to get a grasp of the african countries is that may be good news in one sense because it gives the relevant medical authorities and the governments time to prepare. No its certainly not good news because if indeed already we have higher levels of infections on the ground that what has been tested then essentially our Public Health systems will be overwhelmed whenever these emergencies but you need to do with the spirit of the disorders come in place and so its certainly not good news but. For african nations we certainly have had a chance to learn form other country experiences to better prepare in terms of our response but you know to do with the issues to do with the behavioral change to mitigate the spread of the disease so certainly we do have some headroom in terms of planning for more what other country experiences i want to go on David Heymann in london from your point of view and from your skill set is this a triple whammy in as much as weve been reporting a lot here on aljazeera about the outbreaks of cholera across africa about the outbreaks of measles across africa another got coronavirus how to get them as well. Yes africa has several different Public Health issues going on at the same time which is difficult when this particular outbreak of Novel Coronavirus coded 19 because in virus its possible that africa may be spared more than the rest of the world because they do have a younger population and this infection is less severe in younger populations and as weve heard previously its not really clear whether or not this will take a foothold in africa what what i think is very important is that africa knows how to deal with many of these outbreaks and i look at the overall outbreaks in particular if you talk with a more m. B. A. Judge be who was the 1st medically trained doctor to see ebola in 1976 and whos gone to most outbreaks in the r. C. Since then his tactic is not to treat this is a biomedical issue but as an issue that involves the communities and so his 1st stop when he goes to an outbreak and ive been on several with him is with the district commissioner and he says lets get all the Community Chiefs together 1st and let me explain in their language whats going on and he does he tells them you have the power to stop this outbreak if you understand 2 things number one that these people who are sick in their own context are filled with evil spirits trying to get out and if you touch them or their dead bodies those spirits will come in to you and you will become sick and you need to take that message back to the Community Help them understand how they can work to help the teams that are coming to stop the operate so africa has the power within its communities and its Community Organization to deal with these outbreaks and hopefully well use that in this case if this does become a major pandemic throughout africa as well salami coming back to that in a budget is another issue that the infrastructure the medical infrastructure is weak the most other places in the world so even before you get to treatment the idea of monitoring and tracking people is very difficult anyway. That and that is absolutely true that and that was the story of africa particularly before the outbreak but i can assure you that with the advent of one at the african continent woke up so it was there with up call for the continent and there was a push in what we needed to do before that is to stand in our Health System by establishing a National Public and is tubes for is as an engineer we started by establishing our own c. D. C. Want that will connect it as it is easy and that was used to effectively find it when i when it came to nigeria we. Record was declared by the biju as a piece of. Political. Song here that was carried out by any country so which means you know weve got to do things that were in the last budget to do before so i said youre the decision of the public it is to Southern Partners to able to identify cases any and dad knows this case is by ourselves we dont wait for anybody to tell us to help was there no those cases anymore and that is him time to do a track in effectively. A contract tricity so with that we could you know. Many african countries so following the success of the nigerian c. D. C. It was countries in the west african region. Deemed it important to establish a regional c. D. C. There and that was done successfully now without because we didnt c. D. C. That is a disability and Regional Business was on a business and this was immediately also full of great African Union in the same the. You know the whole continent should have you know a public editor. So it is literally is there isnt an african cities let me just boil some of that down and go back to nairobi david and were oh david how did different african countries work with their neighbors if they choose to in as much as there is a certain resistance coming from certain president s and Prime Minister Prime Ministers you know burundi only reported its 1st 2 cases on march the 31st and the official line they put out a communique saying weve only had 2 cases because we put god 1st surely this is got nothing to do with the almighty this is to do with the signs this is to do with the medicine. Yes sunday. As you normally they are porch that Africa Missions of chicken been differing from our country to country bases and saw the book on the kids of course is much dependent on the general thought it is and the stars that they took before that there was a comment which was widely circulated on social media that there is one why would he had such long numbers was because they didnt have the testing kits in place and you know just to reflect the challenges that most african nations are facing really to do with the capacities for testing. Their limitation that they have in terms of the public measures that they put in place but certainly we see. Now more countries within africa doing. Lockdowns all coffee use. According to measures in place. And bring down the flattening the car so to speak so that the Public Health systems are not overwhelmed it remains to be seen the sect of less of this since we do not nor the true number of. The roots of inspections and so we cant really trust the seekers that we see being reported currently because. Limitations to do with the Testing Capacity and also the. Mortalities up which theyre doing the testing in some cases were seeing them you know or are confining the testing to people perhaps with traveling to countries or who have been in contact with individuals whove had to positive test outcomes but really those mortalities im not so well laid out and so we cannot speak to the. Effectiveness of the numbers. And i just moved on to David Heymann in london david when it comes to those modalities when it comes to the testing capabilities if we talk about kenya if we talk about ethiopia if we talk about sudan they have big camps for either internally displaced people or people whove been displaced from other countries is it a given that the curve will flatten out before those camps become coronavirus hotspots. Its not a given clearly its not a given that any part of africa will be spared from outbreaks should this disease begin to transmit rapidly in africa as it has done in other countries i think there are some interesting events occurring in africa that at least at present theres not been a large amount of mortality among the elderly thats been seen or at least identified as coronavirus in capital City Hospitals thats certainly the 1st place to look to see whether this outbreak is affecting people and if it effects people in hospital settings and in the general communities it will certainly affect refugee populations and as you know refugee populations are according to u. N. Agreements to be treated within the same house systems as our nationals but this is often very hard to do and it is often the situation that refugees are treated differently in Different Health facilities whatever their conditions are and whatever the arrangements are it will be necessary to look out for refugees as well as for National Populations david a were all in nairobi returning to you if i can please is there a chance here that 6 months down the line the coronavirus aggravates a delicate kind of preexisting Economic Situation you know to resume according to the world travel and Tourism Council tourism across africa sustains 24 and a half 1000000 jobs a lot of them are in kenya because of your beach resorts because of your safari industry you know which is absolutely wonderful but if no ones traveling if no ones getting on a plane those jobs are gone and they will come back suddenly the Economic Impacts of the. Option of going to be quite devastating. If you look at. I think on missions mostly. Comprised of a large Informal Sector and having a large Informal Sector. It means that people have to essentially go out every day to whatever to incomes that they arent and so the moment you have this. Measure. And all that being put in place you bring many sectors to our court and so specifically to the Tourism Industry we are seeing Hotel Industry i also dont see industries in general putting on hold or closing down their facilities some even going to the extent of laying off their workers and we not only result in loss of incomes but also just. Dumping sector growth across the economy in terms of when. Were talking about you know wiping out almost half the g. D. P. Nations and so this is quite what is some and it calls upon National Governments to put in. Question measures to protect not only the workers in those sectors but also to incomes to some and never once for the decor sectors of the economy at all salami in a city how do the relevant medical authorities prioritize here because presumably they will have to were talking about a part of the world where 38 almost 40000000 people have a compromised immune system anyway because of hiv aids so the starting point for providing medical care is so complex from the get go. I am very happy to at least in. The african countries are specially educated and others. Have given the green arrows. You know grig poverty to their extended countries and repurposing. Structures that were either to use for other diseases to transit this disease for this is. We in a good hour effectively repurposing and the other infrastructures we used to fight polio and they were born or affected lee position ourselves for any possible surprise in that then he did it in who land. Spilled on or so im aware that because we do know countries and in the same ghana is very active and down very proactive in fact. In the. Countries now have and their leaders and heads of the the president taking challenge of this fight so. Did not aspect of our Health System which as you know was led the public it aspect is not business jump in my other countries i think this is a new development and we also have. Partners friends that are there to work with those even though ok im most of the countries that look into this will also have been. Programs ok to be even human in london staying with that idea of polio we also this time yesterday were talking about yellow fever whats whats the chances here that the corona virus will morph from being a pandemic to being endemic in certain countries so in a year or 5 years well have a conversation saying someone say oh youre going to country x. Remember the coronavirus issue that its still there thats a real issue but it wouldnt be just endemic in one country if this is a virus its destined to become endemic it would be come in demick everywhere where its been transmitting and thats pretty well throughout the world just like hiv each i. V. Was an emerging infection in the early 20th century and now its endemic throughout the world so if this does this in this virus is destined to become endemic and we dont know that for sure we dont know its future but if it is it would certainly not just be endemic in one country would be endemic in many countries and cause a Constant Health threat. David we are in nairobi is there another aspect to this and it might be that other countries who generally would donate to such a big need in africa cant because they for understandable reasons theyre focusing on their own communities theyre focusing on their own terms and cities that is suddenly there. If you look at the traditional dollars or. Relationships that africa has with the rest of the world those donors tend to be drawn from areas where. Damage is already. Has already spread and therefore those traditional dollars. Perhaps a way to funds for africa to talk on and to put interventions to manage that pandemic are now with their own domestic issues so that is certainly something that weve. Therefore cause for african nations to look mystically into their own. Economies to raise this additional monies of science that would provide you know sources for me to get in the missions that theyre putting in place and so one of the things that has been discussed at length is. Countries coming together a huge Level Holding discussions in the e. U. When in order to have another initiative which is essentially for. You know low Income Countries to sort of have debt relief efforts over there be able to have written off the score space within the economies to baltimore and to put those funds towards putting less mitigating measures do you have a 2nd level of course that have come to essentially for us were going to suspend that Debt Repayment essentially to put in place a moratorium so. Whatever plans that african nations had. To submit in terms of documents for those to be there to handling. Challenges and mitigating the economic negative effects that as a result of that let me just put the very final point salami the cd in a very very briefly me is money enough weve got the ethiopian Prime Minister the Award Winning ethiopian Prime Minister in 30 seconds clearly saying he wants to see the continent getting 150000000000 us dollars is money the answer or is it how that money is used. Well definitely it would situation we are now. Empowered africa will be positioned to fight their own brickbat in their pollution in the situation where the money is theirs how city of money and the economy quickly is definitely in our ability to fight this disease is printed as the developed countries are doing would be limited so therefore definitely there should be in need of for an african fund as proposed by the South African president and theyre also a saudi but our tour and no been broader and put forward by in a different government and when one is made it really would question the effect within this is it would weird into a been president in india and president and their ghana and their sort of rekha champion in this is looking inwards this is what your career is and then see it would confer flew in from us ok gentlemen we have to leave it there thank you so much for joining the conversation today thanks to i guess they were abdulsalam in a cd david heyman and david a weirdo and thank you too for watching it and see the program again any time on the website aljazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. 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