Tom i would really suggest oil is important, but complete we secondary to the implosion that we saw yesterday and american jobs data. And the french data not much better. Right now, for global wall street, it is about calibrating the slow down and the nonrecovery out in the third quarter. And also, its the follow on from the rents that werent paid. There were massive upsets this morning. Francine i dont disagree. But oil can make things worse. Lets get straight to uber first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. Viviana we do begin with oil. Opec putting together a Virtual Meeting of its members as President Donald Trump calls for a court need cut to end the historic crash in crude prices. Two delegates telling bloomberg the meeting will be held on monday. Saudi arabia insists it will only cut if others do. This includes the u. S. Of thetoric streak economy adding jobs for one under 13 months is probably ending as tom was mentioning. The march jobs report coming out at 8 30 a. M. New york time, economists surveyed it last month, 100,000 jobs lost due to the coronavirus. The actual situation is likely to be worse. Employers were surveyed before the heavy layoffs. Now to a grim milestone. The coronavirus has infected one Million People worldwide and that is after the emergence in china. The number of infections is much higher because many countries are unable or unwilling to conduct testing. The death toll is more than 53,000. Local covid19 infections rise. The secretary. , mac hancock pledges testing for 100,000 people a day. The government being criticized for acting too late to battle the pandemic. He just emerged from isolation himself after falling sick with the virus. Thanl news powered by more 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Viviana, thanks so much. The data was jumbled today. Shops recalibrate their economic calls. Oil is a big deal. , pulling back on oil. What i really underscore, francine, is that through all of resilient dollar and even a strong dollar particularly against hypersensitive em currencies. Francine we have to spend a lot more time looking at high sensitive em currencies because the Health System is not as up to scratch as it is here. The impact could be that much bigger. Stocks are dipping with u. S. Futures. Investors figuring out the latest corporate and economic turmoil caused by the pandemic. The dollar strengthening. I would point to march payrolls as the one thing that we really need to watch. They are expected to decline for the First Time Since 2010. Data is unlikely and showing the full extent of the impact. It lets get to paul donovan from ubs wealth management, a global chief economist. How ugly will the Employment Situation be in the u. S. . With that not start is a really difficult why not start with an easy question, francine . That is a really difficult question. I believe it will be above european unemployment for a few months. What policy has done in europe is generally to try to protect jobs, prevent unemployment. Whereas the buyers of u. S. Policy until very recently has more being focused on dealing with the consequences of unemployment. And we are seeing that come through in these numbers. Unemploymentnd 15 is entirely realistic and it could be higher than that as we go through the two or three months of lockdown and the immediate aftermath. Francine how can we measure the full extent of how bad it will actually be . People are getting paid and furloughed, they can keep afloat. If they can, we will have solvency problems. The criticals difference, i think, between europe and the state so far. It europe is generally furloughing people. You may not get full pay on furlough. You may not get much money at all. But what you do have is the knowledge that your job will be there for you when the government changes policy. When the government starts to encourage growth again. In the United States, i think thee is a risk that some of unemployment is caused by business is failing and you dont have that certainty that you will have a job at the end. The saving rate will be higher. You will be reluctant to spend throughout the downturn and unable to spend as we go into the recovery phase. The optimistic spin on initial jobless claims is that the numbers have been going up so with a sort of furlough in an american accent. Companies have been firing early and aggressively to make sure the Company Still survives. The company that fires you in march might hire you in may again. That is still pretty economically damaging, but less damaging than Companies Failing and people losing jobs as a result. You and ubse learning with your particular bond operation . What have you learned about the followed of furloughs and firings over to a lack of rent being paid and what we have seen in the last 48 hours, the beginning of the implosion of the Mortgage Market. What do you observe this morning about the immediacy of the collapse in trust . Again, different policies in europe then the states. It has been a move toward mortgage holidays. People in difficult situations have been given a three month to six month holiday. If you are given a holiday, thats fine. Your mortgage now lasts another six months. We just pretend the next six months never happened and off we go again as normal. Worksas very well that very well with a furlough. And of course, you do have that risk in regards to rent and in regards to mortgage payments. The number of people losing their jobs is so dramatic and can be an issue. Shouldnt panic, necessarily, about a very sharp rise now. On, that is carries where it gets really serious. Tom can you say that we will mimic the mortgage holiday process of europe . That is primarily a political decision. In my view, it is fairly logical. Theurope, the cost of mortgage holiday was born by the banking system. In america, if you had a formede holiday, that is by a larger group of people. Ofks can whether the cost select mortgage holidays and on a casebycase basis. When youe complicated have a Mortgage Market in the United States. I am sure with enough administration resources, you could come up with a solution. But it is more complicated to do in america. Tom well said. Morning in america, this is front and center, percolating all across new york and wall street. This complete collapse of new york pricing and certain etfs and other indicators like that. I am sure this will be a topic for jon ferro as he speaks to lawrence kudlow. Thats after the jobs report. Of course, mr. Kudlow is leaving the white house with a number of policy prescriptions including the fixation of saudi arabia. Early front and center after the jobs report is the stark inability of people to keep their jobs. Please stay with us. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. We are talking a lot about the u. S. , some of the figures that we may see a little bit later on in terms of jobless claims. We will get back to paul donovan and ubs management. I wanted to ask about europe. There is so much fight between italy and some of the countries that corona has hit. Can we talk about Debt Forgiveness or will we see italy in a Bailout Program once this is over . That it isnt think the only way. I think there are institutional mechanisms that with a bit of tweeting can possibly help provide common assistance. We have seen the commission talking about raising calls as well including the markets that are not quite corona bonds but led by the European Commission with the government guarantee. I dont think we need to fixate on corona bonds. I think we need to focus on the Financial Assistance across the euro area in the way we have already seen europe come together with common medical assistance and common programs for purchasing medical equipment. Of cooperation is there in the european union. I think that is clear. It is perhaps not quite so easy to engineer on the fiscal side. I think there is a recognition that there is a crisis that we can manage collectively. Francine what is your take on splitting Government Debt . It seems politically insurmountable at the moment, but i see a number of research, including City Research that says this could be a way to make sure we are dealing with the crisis and at the same time, not putting the economy on its feet in five or 10 years. We have to get some sense of perspective here. The debt increases we are are notabout necessarily quite as alarming as some of the debt increases that we saw back in 2008. One of the reasons for that is even though this is a horrific crisis in humanitarian terms and in terms of the Economic Impact, it is also a crisis with a finite time limit. It does not create an openended obligation. And a lot of the damage, once the damage is done, within a couple of courses, you can to a more normal environment. Italy, for example, having 150 gdp ratio, it is a burden. Is a disaster for italy. Japan has it debt to gdp ratio of 100 and might be domestically financed like italy. It is not a problem. A 250k. In 1945 had percent gdp ratio. And again, managing that with no particular problem. Im not necessarily looking for this to be a debt crisis in the way that 2008 was. I think there is an argument for sharing the burden, but im not convinced that we need to be panicked about this level. Francine Paul Donovan Tom paul donovan, what is the to do list for the Prime Minister . Guest getting better, one hopes. The u. K. In terms of the Economic Policy response, i think has been pretty effective. With the possible accusation of undue patriotism, the uks economic response was a little chaotic but one of the most effective in going very early. Tom that would be true. Guest the problem is that the u. K. Government has been increasingly criticized for the health care response. The focus is testing. Shift awayre is a from the economic focus. There will still be a lot of attention to make sure implementation of policy happens quickly. That is still going to be a priority. But i think that we probably move instead to more focus on the economic side and onto the medical side, making sure ventilators, protective equipment, the nhs is running effectively. Tom do you assume dollar resiliency . Guest i dont. Timing partly because of of the second phase of this, the u. S. May be lagging behind. The u. S. May have higher on employment then europe for some time. Europe yment then than europe for some time. None of that necessarily lends itself to dollar strength. Once you go beyond the liquidity that initially comes in. And, of course, there are two other factors. Reducing dollar demand. The price of oil. And regardless of what happens on monday, i rather suspect that we will not see a 35 million or 45 million barrel reduction in oil. Regardless of where we are with trade negotiations and everything else, global trade is not going to go back to where it was very quickly. Global trade is dollar funded. I think it would be wrong to assume beyond the liquidity demand that the dollar is able to hold on to gains. Francine what action should ,pecplus with the u. S. Take paul . If there is underinvestment, does it shoot up to insane levels . Guest this is quite a complicated question. The price of oil in absolute terms is neutral for the economy because all the change in the price of oil does is transfer money between oil buyers and oil sellers. High oil price, sellers get lots of cash. Low oil price, they dont get so much. Oil buyers are better off. The Economic Impact of this is complex. But what it is for the moment is disruptive. Frankly, i could do with a little bit less disruption in my life. The disruption and the uncertainty caused by the oil price and the oil sector in terms of equities and the uncertainty around investment, all of that is frankly unwelcome. The best thing i think opec could do is give a degree of certainty about where the price is going to be. And calm the markets in that sense. And whether the price is high or low, the certainty is the more important thing. Do we see a surge in investment in the future . Im not convinced by that. I do think that the sustainability shift in the Global Economy has duration. I think it lasts through this crisis. And if that is the case, then i think the move away from Oil Dependency which has been very rapid over the last 10 years, will probably continue. Focus is still going to be on Sustainable Investment in Energy Rather than necessarily ramping up investment in oil in the future. Francine thank you so much. Always valuable, paul donovan. If you have bloomberg, check out the function tv. You can watch all of our interviews live. Click on our charts and interact with us directly. Just go to tv. This is bloomberg. Francine viviana you are watching bloomberg surveillance. We begin with shares of tesla. Today, they are surging. First Quarter Sales came in better than expected. At last month, elon musk introduced tesla deliveries. That came at a time when authorities began urging future car buyers to stay home. Now to apples u. S. Retail stores. They will stay closed and work from home procedures will stay in place. That will be until early may. In march, outside of china, taiwan, and hong kong, apple closed 458 stores. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine and tom. Tom i am that you mentioned the apple store. It really extraordinary to see. See companies extend out through april and touching into may as well. On the data front, decidedly mixed. Oil is riled by an opecplus meeting that you will see earlier later today. Securities is grim and emerging markets are being watched is well with the resilient dollar. Good to hear paul donovan give us a brief on the dollar. And the dollar out into the future. We will give you the data up to the jobs report this morning. It will be much, much more information today. Jobs and sales with florence kudlow with jon ferro in the 9 00 hour. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Theres no place like home. Especially when xfinity has you covered with fast, reliable internet. With advanced security to help keep you secure online. And with the most tv shows, movies and streaming apps all in one place. With simple Digital Tools you can get the help you need or even trouble shoot your services on your own. Download the xfinity my account app or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. We are working to make things a little easier on everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. The lockdown is more or less producing 3 negative growth obviously after the lockdown will finish, the rebound will be immediate. Tom bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everyone. Tom keene in new york, Francine Lacqua in london. David westin yesterday speaking with the Vice President of the United States. This is extremely fluid for our global audience, and i cannot convey how the messaging out of washington whether the executive branch canegislative change over three or four hours, so even though this is a current comment by the Vice President it is already dated. David, i can tell you, is that because of the Public Private partnership we forged with these vast commercial labs that your listeners know well, labcorp, testingoche, we are over 100,000 americans a day, but a very significant breakthrough happened this weekend. Speed,moving with record the fda approved Abbott Laboratoriess pointofcare test that people can have administered at their doctors office. We are in the process of identifying thousands of Abbot Laboratory machines around the making sure we are distributing those not just to areas seeing an impact today, but we want to distribute those as Abbott Laboratories is making about 50,000 tests a day now. We want to distribute those two areas where we can do what you had so had implied, surveillance testing that will allow states that do not have a significant outbreak to be forewarned and forearmed, and to do Contract Tracing to limit the spread of the coronavirus. The answer to the other part of your question, we literally are tracking every single day the number of cases coming out, where they are coming out. Already received a briefing of county by county, state by state analysis and that is informing our coordination not only with the Strategic National stockpile, fema, but with Health Care Distributors across the country about we are focusing and sourcing everything from personal protective equipment to all the supplies healthcare workers need. We are focusing it where the outbreaks are and working closely with governors to support their requests for personal protective equipment and field hospitals, and will continue to do that aroundtheclock. lets talk about personal protective equipment and ventilators. Coordinatingyour and monitoring, is there consideration being given to centralizing . Is there a thought we should have a Central Location under you at the task force to decide where they go . Thehen the president signed National Disaster declaration a femaeeks ago, he stood up as the lead coordinator of our nations response. Closely been working through its regional administrators and governors to process requests not just from the national stockpile, but we are working with distributors around the country and directing them in many cases where we need that personal protective equipment to go. We established what the president has called an air bridge, a