Sides of the atlantic. 1 , tech00 up 4 10 of doing the heavy lifting. The stoxx 600 up 6 10 of 1 . Euro weakness today. It started before the durable goods number and the news out of berlin. Weakness in the russian ruble. Isssure from belarus increasing on moscow and the ruble is taking it harder as a result. Keep an eye on japan. There is a press conference with it is friday and fascinating to see where we go. European stocks lagging their american peers. This anlysts calling opportunity to shift investments from the United States to hear in europe. Will that happen or will that be missed . Scarlet it is kind of happening right now, and europe looks appealing because it is a diversification away from the u. S. Which is crowded, high devaluation, and trading highs. There is stimulus coming in europe, 27 member nations able to agree on more public spending , in contrast to what we have seen in the u. S. Fund flows for the biggest equity etf in the u. S. Got the itt since january, and since is a vanguard etf it is targeted for retail investors. Evidence europe is the most favored region and investors are harboring the largest overweight in european stocks since 2018 due to the potential for catch up. The stoxx 600 has rallied and given a return of 17 since late march in contrast to the united the s p,2 return for more for the nasdaq. The u. S. Market is making new highs on a daily basis. One reason europe has trailed is a relative lack of technology versus 20 ony 7 the s p 500. One of the highest European Tech names flamed out, wirecard, which is insolvent. Industrial companies in europe are more directly tied to china than the u. S. , and that will likely be the case with tensions rising between the u. S. And beijing. A lot depends on the path of the virus and how that is reflected in fx markets. Europe and asia are seen managing the virus better than the United States but there is a headwind for european stocks. Some say europe could have reached its limits and jane foley says the euro is likely to ak above one dollar 20 1. 20. Guy lets bring in bhanu baweja. Money in the states or europe . Bhanu for the next three months, europe. Scarlet gave a good round up. To main factor if you want understand country allocations is to understand sector allocations and one step further, factor allocations, do we want to be in growth or lowvolume,entum, or quality . The market has been more and more priced in, will price in jackson hole and the vaccine. These are already in the price but there is room to run, and as we move away from growth to value which is difficult because of how strong it has been, but if you want to start on a clean sheet of paper, value stocks will do slightly better and that should be a reallocation towards europe. That is a tactical call, i emphasize that. Longer term, the amount of stimulus the u. S. Economy has, there will be a much bigger recovery in the u. S. Next year. Tech, from a shortterm perspective, is the future. Allocationsset portfolio, it will be tough to diversify, given china, given the hopes on vaccines. It will be tactical asset allocation. Europes a trade value on and investment growth, tech. Kailey we have seen plenty of value fixed over the years that has yet to be sustained. When looking for value in europe, where can you find it without falling into a value trap . Bhanu we have to distinguish between cyclicals and value. Cyclicals have done very well. , industrialcks companies linked to china have done extremely well. Gone one warren , companies that trade quite cheaply. Spain, you could see a tactical move and the reason why the value trade is always going to be one step forward, two steps back is because it is difficult for inflation to recover and difficult for Inflation Expectations to pick up sustainably. The market has done well in picking up inflation u. S. Tations, 1. 72 in the and europe as well, but oil has only recovered 15 of its profits and its trading is heavy. There is a limited time in the most under discussed factor and the most under discussed factor is china. If china cannot continue the pace of stimulus, in the next six months global expectations are likely to hedge over and china drives the value change. There will be a time for value to do well for europe. It will be in the case that china is giving the credit stimulus that is now. When the dollar is slightly weak, these are the requirements that the value trade can do well. These are shortterm developments. If i had to start on a clean sheet of paper with a trade i would be thinking about a rotation now. Guy what happens if china doesnt deliver . The dax is heavily geared toward what is happening in china. If china decides it cannot continue to deliver the stimulus it has been, isnt the high beat rate on that the German Market . Bhanu the question will lead to timing. It is inevitable that china will not be able to let me put some numbers. 42 a has delivered stimulus of gdp, incremental stimulus. Even for china, that is a crazy number. China has liquidity at about 30 of gdp and the tightening of liquidity is only 22 of liquidity, average numbers of the last decade. In the first half of this year, partly because nominal gdp has not growth, china has added liquidity of 42 and that is percolating through the autos market, excavators market, and properties market, helping europe. By the Fourth Quarter of this year, the chinese credit impulse will start coming down and that will have a major impact on european earnings into next year and that is when the market will smell the coffee will comean stocks under greater pressure. This is not the time to press the panic button on european stocks. Europe,with china and as scarlet alluded to, they handled the virus better and they will outperform, but the bloomberg has a basket of activities and they are seeing that come down in italy and spain with a resurgence of cases and a lack of activity. What does that say about the fragility of this rebound . Bhanu let me also add in a point i think is relevant, although the virus cases in the u. S. Have been very high, mobility improvements have been higher in the u. S. In the last two months than in europe because europe has had significantly mobility improvements until late may. Despite high virus cases, mobility has not improved. If you look through the mobility lens, it makes more sense in terms of the u. S. Versus europe. The big risk in the u. S. Is the election, one issue we need to think about, but Biggest Issue we need to consider in the u. S. , the entire focus is on jackson hole and how much more help the government can give us. A lot of Monetary Policy is priced into that market. The festival is question is whether physical help can come in time fiscal help can come in time. The s p will definitely sense it. The russell will definitely sense it. It will be a large enough move that it has an impact on the s p overall. Thats when you can see rotation away, not necessarily because europe is attractive but because thestart worrying about primary factor, the fiscal problem in the u. S. Where you dont have the same supplementary benefits for the unemployed. Up issues of spending. Thatthe market always at point has gone, it doesnt matter because the fed will step in, the powell put exists. What do you make of that argument . At this point, the fed stepped in all the time. They bring down the risk rate. Bringing down the price of risk, the price of money and the price of risk. The price of risk is already done, credit spreads are already tight, so the price of risk is in the bottom quartile. The 10 year real rate is below where it was in 2012, so the key question is whether or not real Interest Rates can be defined further. The key question is if Inflation Expectations can rise. Inflation expectations rise . A lot of people think it is very likely. Unlikely. 2 is not a binding constraint so 2. 5 will not be a binding constraint. 20think we are within 15 to basis points of real rates bottoming, an important call for the s p and global stark markets. Dutch stockmarkets. Stockmarkets. Of course there can be overshoot and rotations, but the fact that risk pre riskfree rates are bottoming is important. Kailey bhanu baweja will be sticking with us. We will have more on the fed and Monetary Policy. Extend taking steps to employment but does not want to spend to do it. This is bloomberg. York, i ame from new kailey leinz with guy johnson in london. Still with us is bhanu baweja at ubs investment bank. At this time tomorrow, we will be picking apart everything fed fair fed chair jay powell has told us that jackson hole. What should we be looking for . [indiscernible] kailey that sounds like we are having a bit of an issue. Guy this was my great fear. Fear, thatnus great the technology would let us down and the internet would not provide us with the band with we would be hoping for. We are going to be picking apart everything jay powell has to say. We will get more details come september, but the big question that keeps being asked, if we go to average inflation forecasting that the fed is potentially moving to, how do you communicate that . People can understand a 2 inflation target. It raises the risk of a miscommunication by the fed, and jay powell had a few of those. Kailey that is a huge issue, not just on inflation but how they will communicate their forward guidance. Whodoes fed chair powell, has been quite open speaking to the american public, has gone on the today show remains an open question . We have been talking about the resurgence in virus cases in 1367e, italy reporting more cases. Thatf the areas in europe has seen activity indicators start to come back down as we see these indicators climb up. Guy what is happening, a lot of people are coming back from places like sardinia and bringing the virus back. We were talking to the Italian Health minister early are earlier on and he was suggesting we do not see a national lockdown, but numbers like this may suggest that more targeted, maybe more draconian lockdowns could certainly be coming towards italy. Is still am told bhanu with us. Sorry for the technical difficulties. We have talked about the inflation targeting, the communication issue. How is jay powell best going to communicate this . Bhanu he is going to talk about this in broad brush strokes. This will not be the big reveal tomorrow. At jackson hole, i think it will have to wait for the details in the meeting september 16, the fed meeting. What he is likely to communicate he is increasingly dashed increasingly worried about fiscal policy so he will say we will do everything it takes and this will be the whatever it takes speech, equivalent of that. The talk about administration spoke about them not being the key but he will term premiumsand and Inflation Expectations getting up. He will be speaking and broad brush strokes, and a significant commitment from the fed to do whatever it takes is what we can expect. There will be a lot of good sounding stuff from the fed for the markets. Were discussing earlier is whether or not inflation rates can maintain another 10 or 15 basis points, especially if we get a democratic sweep. A six month is on view, can you push up inflation . I have my doubts. Guy let me ask you the kind of hypothetical. What happens if the fed is successful and we see fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus and a vaccine combining to produce a reasonably strong, maybe not relative to history, but recent history pick in inflation . What happens then . Pickup in inflation . What happens then . Bhanu if that happens, first, you would need to see a and the labor market. Mores a discussion done than it needs to be and the labor market discussion is done much less than it needs to be. Unless we see wages even out, it will be tough to get inflation. The only time you saw inflation pick up without wages picking up was in the 1970s during the oil shortage because of a supplyside shock. This is not a supplyside shock. Lets assume you are right and demand picks up independently of significant healing of the labor market, just monetary and fiscal policy. Months,go up in six what kind of world would we wake up to . A significant rotation of growth towards value, especially in the u. S. Because real rates have been declining over 200 basis points in the last two months, much less than germany and emerging markets. Up,nflation begins to pick you will see a major value rotation and i would argue the dollar would be much weaker and the curves will not steepen aggressively. Breakevens. Will be there will be some steepening of 1. 60, but iwards would argue you dont get a major selloff in the market. The fiveyear is trading flat. That is where you get the biggest optionality because nothing is priced five to seven years. Guy on that note, we are going to leave it. You very much indeed, bhanu baweja with ubs investment bank. This is bloomberg. Guy welcome back. Plan frome flight seattle to moses lake, this is a regulatory flight designed to continue the 737 maxs return to the skies. This is apparently in the canadian sphere of influence, the canadian regulators looking for the test. It will be interesting to see when this aircraft makes it back. The ftse is down, cac is up. The ftse is down because we have seen oil stocks come down like bp. From a sector point of view in europe, technology up 1. 72 . There is a read across from salesforce and we are seeing the Technology Sector outperforming. Careoms, utilities, health are underperforming a little bit as well in london. The european close is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Guy we are 30 seconds away from the end of regular trading this wednesday. I have to put a few caveats on that one of these is there is spectacularly light volume. We are at the end of a bank holiday in the u. K. , a lot of people have taken the week off even if they were not able to leave the country. Pushing higher throughout the session and we are up 8 10 of 1 . The Technology Stocks have been the lead performer. Heres whats happening with and the technicals in these markets, the stoxx 600, while it has reallyhigher, is struggling to make headway. You can see the yellow line is the 200 Day Moving Average. You can see that we bump up against this. This is something that a lot of people are paying attention to. Does that provide the kind of thatrio and the rotation may last a little while . And does this continue to provide a moderating force in europe . Of the individual markets today, we see the ftse 100 struggling to make headway and the dax is a big outperform her over last few months, up by 8 10 of 1 . Astrazeneca is acting as a bit of a drag and you have the oil stocks, fascinating despite the fact that we have a category four hurricane approaching United States. We have some clues as to whats happening here, the grr is showing up and the technology has been relatively well. , the utilities and gas as well as an eclectic mix. You have mentioned, the european stocks have been struggling to make through breakthrough the moving average. Katie,st joins us now, we have been flirting with these levels for weeks, are we going to break out . This is really neutralized over the past as the benchmark fights with the 200 Day Moving Average. Resistance, or sometimes a support level in part because it is so widely followed. If you go back to october 2019, the 200 Day Moving Average was support and now we are looking at it as a resistance. A breakout would be an incremental positive and require more than just a day. We need to see a couple of strong closes for the stoxx 600. That would indicate a breakout and put the next major resistance at the high. The benchmark does have the support. Of people are looking to the u. K. For a catchup tray. We contrast. W ritika its really the u. K. Katie its really the u. K. Or the ftse 100 that has an a lagger. Underperformed, and really theres no indication of a reversal in trends for the ftse 100 versus the stoxx 600. Where we are seeing that outperformance come from his sweden. Ireland, even the countries that we rely on for the upside leadership. These are more likely than the u. K. To get the stoxx 600 above resistance. Here in the u. S. The market rally has been very narrow, what does it look like to you in europe . Its actually not been too narrow, it has expanded with the march low. And in the u. S. We have the s p 500. Its add a degree in which it , i think what folks confuse it with his leadership, which has been quite narrow. Its a small segment of these. Arkets the outperformance is coming from this small group of stocks. That does not necessarily were a weakeningect trend. Because participation can be strong in that environment. Out of curiosity, we are in the dog days of summer, everybodys on vacation. Is there a calendar affect we need to Pay Attention to . Katie it used to be that we would see volatility pickup around september or october globally. That seems to have been bumped up in recent years to august. Here we are approaching the end of august with not much downside volatility. I think september holds the possibility of capturing a pullback in the major indices around the world. We are just not seeing that malt that loss of momentum in earnest. We do have some radians in sentiment which could be an issue once folks get back to their desks. I think what that has done to the stoxx 600 is really kept it in its consolidation phase. There has not been enough strength or momentum to break it out, but there has been enough to keep it firm. Laughinger here because when i asked you to speak out with us about the stoxx 600 you said yes, not about the s p. So i dont want to ask you about the s p but i want to ask about the nasdaq. Today, howe than 1 long can we sustain this rally . Katie isnt it wild . If you pull up a chart you can see everything and it gets higher even after an extended up the move and sometimes trends do go parabolic. Its where you see the short term moving average like a 20 Day Moving Average turning up higher and well below current levels. It makes it if occult to add exposure because you feel like youre chasing things but it has been the right thing to do. We do still have that momentum and also the major constituents of that benchmark but there are signs of exhaustion that have been attuned to the shortterm gauges. We have some countertrend signals that have arisen, enough to suggest that we are tuned into those doctrines. We have also seen a lot of gaps in some of these large tech driven the have indexes higher. If we see them fall quickly that would be a check against the market in the near term. This is a momentum market, how strong is the