all. the dollar dropping like a stone and the 2024 risk? politics. former president trump ahead of president biden in michigan now, leading in all seven swing states. we will have the latest for you. welcome to bloomberg markets -- i gotta say, i am pretty surprised. the last 12 hours, we did a lot of stuff. guy: definitely. i am still in shock about the fed, and how far the fed was prepared to go at this point. i get the idea that the u.s. economy is more readable and understandable, that you can cut rates, but the gap between the fed and ecb is galactic now, huge. should i believe the ecb? they didn't even talk about rate cuts. alix: but when you look at the core inflation chart for europe as well as the u.s., europe had a higher peak, but it is coming down hard and fast. the fed has a lower inflation forecast for next year then the ecb. i find that puzzling and do not understand what is going on there. guy: yeah. i think the ecb has the potentials to lean on cuts in a much more significant way. they are looking at wages in the beginning of next year because of the highly structured way the european labor market works. they need to see the data coming in next year before they can make a decision. the bank of england looks like an outlier now. you have members of the mpc voting for rate hikes still, but the bank of england looks very different. let's kick it around and get into this, this will dominate the rest of the year, the spread gap between the central banks. christine lagarde wrapping up her news conference. many investors have been pushing and anticipating rate cuts. christine: we did not the scott -- discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion, no debate on this issue. not everyone takes the view that between hike and cuts, there is a whole plateau, whole beach of hold. it's like -- i don't know. solid, liquid, gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going through the liquid phase. guy: ok. that is an interesting way of looking at it. maria has been there at the ecb today in frankfurt and is still there. rate work today, first of all. let's talk about the gap between the ecb and people are surprisee fed. many people are more surprised that the ecb stuck to this idea that it did not even discuss rate cuts. do people believe the ecb when it says that? maria: look, it's a very good question and will become a fundamental question. before we get to that, you played it very clearly. it is clear this is a central bank that wants to stretch this idea of higher for longer as long as it possibly can. she said no debate about cuts, none at all. that did not happen. this is also not a bank going from hiking to cutting in between, there is a mindset and the narrative they want to continue certainly carries the expectation that it is also interesting that she talked about the first half of the year. there will be a lot of data in the european central bank and we will monitor that. so if you thought there was room for a cut that would come in april q1, q2, we will look at the first half of the year to reassess where we are at. to answer your question specifically, how long can they defend this? at this point, it will exclusively come down to the data. this is a central bank that has been accused of being too optimistic about their resilience. the european economy should consider the risks are tilted to the downside. when it comes to inflation, we have seen positive surprises. it will come down to the idea of hire for longer and how they can defend it. when it comes to the messaging now, there is nothing to suggest they want to pivot. they did not follow suit of the fed, and the central bank is saying be patient, because we will monitor the data. it is not q1, it could stretch even longer. alix: and a cut as early as march being priced out for the ecb. bloomberg's maria tadeo, we appreciate it. we want to get more on this and are joined by carsten brzeski. what do you make of the gap we see now between these central banks? carsten: clearly, even after the fed, the ecb is not pivoting at all. we'll see more of a significant downswing in the u.s., which will allow the fed to do these rate cuts next year. we did not fly high in europe, now we are slowing down again. the ecb, they have been lagging behind the fed anyhow. we will look to rate cuts in the second quarter at the earliest in europe. guy: the fed seems to be cutting because the inflation is coming down. the ecb is cutting because growth is -- is not cutting because growth is slowing down. shouldn't they be thinking about action earlier than the fed? carsten: not really, guy. the first thing, the interest rate and the u.s. is higher, so the fed has more room to cut rates. in europe, the ecb still expects growth to come in at 12.8% next year. we are a bit more pessimistic, but we do not forecast a fully fleshed recession. i think to really see any ecb cutting as aggressively as markets have been pricing in over the last couple of days, we would have to see a severe recession in the euro zone and inflation falling below 4.2%. alix: you could make the argument that the neutral rate is higher in the u.s., so the ecb would have more room to cut. but if growth is holding up well in the u.s., look at retail sales, how can we price in a cut in march? carsten: for the u.s., it is really that everyone is expecting these high interest rates. think of the interest rates on credit cards, consumer loans, car loans.everyone is expecting these high interest rates to take a toll on the u.s. economy and seeing at least a soft landing if not worse in the u.s. and the second half of next year. that would allow the fed to anticipate on it and start cutting rates. guy: so you think the fed is cutting rates because of a growth slowdown, not because inflation is moderating at a faster pace than anticipated? carsten: it's the growth story and inflation being lower, allowing the fed to react to the growth story, yes. alix: on the flipside, europe's inflation is slowing faster, they have a worse growth story, but they will not cut as fast. carsten: because the ecb is still worried that it has it wrong on inflation. they have a dismal track record of forecasting inflation, so now we have a few monthly prints of inflation coming down slightly faster than expected. then we have the models of the ecb showing inflation coming around 2% in the second half of 2025, not earlier. with the dismal track record, i think the ecb wants to be cautious. like i said already, wage settlements in the first half of next year will be crucial. it will also be crucial to see if there will be any additional paths through inflation this year into prices next year. the ecb really wants to be extremely sure that it is more isolated and has brought down inflation before they will cut rates. guy: it feels like the ecb still feels like it has an inflation problem, whereas the fed doesn't. the fed sees inflation coming down very rapidly and jay powell talked about this idea, he doesn't want to leave the rate cuts too late. that could be politics or all kinds of reasons, but it is more likely to be economic. he doesn't want to leave the rate cuts too late. is there a danger that the ecb is too focused on inflation at this point, that inflation is coming down and growth starts to become a bigger problem? carsten: it is indeed a big risk for the ecb, almost built-in in how the ecb looks at the economy and on inflation. why is that? first, they want to be sure to see inflation really being down at 2%, which implies that they will be late in cutting rates. there is a big risk that they will be behind the curve, actually twice in one cycle, on the way up and now on the way down. alix: if that is the case, why didn't christine lagarde push back harder on market pricing? she was given many opportunities to do so. carsten: i agree, but christine lagarde has learned from past experiences, which have told her to not comment on these market expectations, to not be the number one ecb watcher and predicting what the ecb will do. really, to give no forward guidance. she did extremely well today, although she might have been tempted to give forward guidance, but she did a good job today not giving forward guidance, being cautious, and pushing back rate cut expectations a tiny bit, because christine lagarde knows whether there will be rate cuts next year. the only question is when and how much. alix: carsten brzeski of ing. you have the nasdaq 100 sitting at a closing record high, so coming up, our question of the day -- what will stop the everything rally? the boe did not, the ecb did not, what will? kristin bitterly is at citigroup global wealth. she joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. ♪ >> i think you can say that there is little basis for thinking the economy is in a recession now. there is always a probability that there will be a recession in the next year. inflation has eased from its highs and this has come without a significant and recent in unemployment. we still have a ways to go. no one is declaring victory, that would be premature, but inflation is still too high. ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured. participants did not want to take the possibility of further hikes off the table, so that is what we are thinking. how far we have,, the committee is proceeding carefully. alix: fed chair powell speaking yesterday at the fomc meeting, but did not push back on market pricing of cuts when he opened the door, the nasdaq 100 sitting at a closing record high, the semis at a record high also, and the question is, what is going to stop it? what will stop everything rally, aside from the weaker dollar? kristin bitterly joins us now. what do you think? kristen: i think he gave us an early christmas gift in terms of market reaction yesterday, but you have to break down what he said that was pretty definitive. the fed is done raising rates for now -- this is the first time he gave a nod to the trajectory of inflation and the fact that it is easing. he was very dovish in his messaging. even given the ability as you mentioned to acknowledge the loosen sing of financial conditions we have seen over the past several weeks, he did not bite that apple at all. we are clearly expecting that dovish messaging from jay powell, but the fed met the market and i think the market continues to move. guy: the market continues to move, good morning. i'm wondering if you think market prices are now commensurate with what powell said, and whether the market pricing is commensurate with a simple slowdown in inflation. you look at the market pricing on rate cuts at the moment, it would seem to imply quite a severe slowdown. i'm wondering whether or not we get that. if we don't get that, what needs to change? kristin: when you look at the movement we have seen in rates, the market make the head of -- might be ahead of itself. the question is around the timing of the dot plot, starting in march or more in the summer months. the fed, in terms of what they are going to do, march seems premature in terms of getting the first cut in that month. yes, you have the inflation data, yes, they looked at core pce, but he made a couple of comments about watching the labor market. i think they will continue to watch the resiliency of the labor market until they make the first cut. remember, and prior cutting cycles, we still saw job g rowth. we were adding 146 thousand with the first cut, so it does not have to turn negative for them to begin their cutting cycle. alix: let's go to the allocation part of this. why would we go by the 10 year, which some might of said a couple of weeks ago -- why not go by small caps or big tech? why am i going to put money into the bond market if markets are going to fly higher on the cut potential? kristin: we have very well diversified portfolios that we are managing here at citi, and there is a decent allocation to fixed income. locking in some of the yields makes sense, especially with the quality price of fixed income. that is the exact question, where are there opportunities within the equity market? we saw that in small and mid-caps a bit on the back of the cpi print, but there is room to run there. if you look at the trajectory into an environment where we would avoid recession and see rate cuts, from an equity standpoint, there are opportunities that could interplay the broadening of the rally. guy: do you think history will remember the last couple of years with the midcycle slowdown? kristin: potentially, potentially. the recession we were all anticipating was not a traditional recession. as chair powell said, there is a potential risk of a recession that is certainly not our base case. but what we need to factor in is the fact that the recession was a rolling recession. we saw contraction in manufacturing and on a backward looking, 12 months from an early standpoint, we have seen a profit recession with the decline of 6%. it did not happen at the same time. i think different parts of the economy and the market were impacted at different times, so the tightening has come through, it just has not shown itself and what people would label a traditional recession, but rather a rolling one. alix: do you trust the fed? it feels like team transitory was right. core inflation is still high and the fed did not address that yesterday. how closely do you have to pay attention when it feels like the fed changed course in a few weeks? kristin: we have to look at the data and look at the differences we have seen, there seems to be more consensus from the fed in terms of where people landed in terms of the overall dot plot. a big thing we are watching here is inflation and whether there is a trajectory in looking at the fed's target, 2%. we see a clear path to 2.5% based on our analysis by the end of 2024. when you look at the underlying components, you have goods at no inflation. services are still elevated. when you use the disconnect between how shelter is calculated and if you look at an index like the home index and the declines we are seeing in rent, or disinflationary forces, in terms of home prices and rents, you can get to the calculus around 2.5 percent by year-end. i think that is what they are looking at for 2024. guy: great to catch up. thank you for stopping by and seeing us. kristin bitterly, joining us from citigroup global wealth. we will turn to what is happening with tech. adobe sliding on a weaker sales outlook. we will talk about that, and a new start up. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: it is 22 past 7:00 on the west coast. you want to get to the top tech stories from the bay area and beyond. joining us now in new york, caroline hyde, on set. adobe shares getting hit pretty hard. what happened here? caroline: tough on a day were everything else was high because of the fed. everyone saw adobe as a big generative ai winner, the way in which we will be using photoshop and use our marketing skills because we can generate new images -- they are still saying revenue will klein 10% -- climb 10% next year, but the market wanted to see more. it's about whether the digital media part of the business will be growing at the rate it has thought. especially for firefly, their ai product. guy: talk us through the s.e.c. problems as well. caroline: this could be a big settlement fee. they are being investigated because basically, it is too hard to cancel. i am sure you have gotten the hot email from adobe in the past . trying to unsubscribe, and the biden administration took aim at the digital subscriptions, saying it has to be as easy to cancel as it is to sign up. adobe, it is painful, if you do not cancel in the first two weeks it is prorated in how much it charges you. since november, the ftc might have a chance to settle. alix: it is like quitting the gym. adobe is a little worse, but it is like quitting the gym. it is hard to try and time it on the right day. i do want to ask, take us back to the shift there -- this doesn't feel like chips. you are in a structural shift versus a cyclical industry. caroline: and how quickly that will end up boosting sales and giving you numbers. nvidia has managed to live up to high expectations, 10% increase in revenue is nothing to be sniffed at. the ceo was trying to put out the statement that, we are seeing an uptick in demand, sales, seeing firefly do particularly well, but we have had investors come on and say, adobe is what you should be looking at, and the shares have priced that in. guy: caroline, great stuff. thank you very much indeed. quite a difficult day, in as much as everything else is having a good day, adobe is not. but nonetheless, timing is everything. caroline coming up a little bit later with ed ludlow, bloomberg technology. 90 minutes time, they have plenty to talk about. we will be talking about retail sales surprising to the upside. alix steel, did you have anything to do with this? alix: it was the black friday, woodberry commons deal. you should have seen this coming . guy: you have a strong labor market, so in economy that is slowing down -- dana te lsey joining us next to discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ we harness the power of a 360° perspective, delivering local insights and global expertise across public and private equity and debt. our experienced team and vast network uncover compelling opportunities giving our clients an exclusive advantage. principal asset management. actively invested. i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network. alix: we are an hour into the u.s. trading session. we are seeing a little heat taken off of the rally here. the nasdaq 100 is now around the lows of the session, still looking at a record closing high. >> let's take a look at the russell 2000 this has been the lacquered on the year. look at the decline we had out of the summer peak into october. basically a bear market, down about 19% at that time, reversing the entire thing. this is a parabolic uptrend, so it will probably be consolidated. that does not mean the rally will continue. all of this on the pivot, a complete surprise to many, including this is the first time since 2018 and also 2021 but the opposite direction where he has really surprised markets in a big way. take a look at the nasdaq 100, on pace for a record high. are we seeing a hangover here for some of these indexes? that have been going up since the beginning of november when some traders started to price it in? the s&p 500 equal weighted. still up 2% today after a gain yesterday. look at the banks, up 4% now. it has everything to do with yields on the dollar. here is the two year yield and a wide range we have been looking at. we looked at a virgin -- version of this chart saying we would go back or to 4%. i'm surprised it is to the downside, but you can see why. this is quickly filling. we are basically going back to the levels of the crisis. that is clearly what that was a messaging of yesterday with technical support, which would suggest more legs ahead for stocks, even if there is consolidation. on the year, let's take a look at retail. amazon, a big winner, up 77%. home depot also. acs, i imagine this as well off the lows given the possible bid and etsy down 30.5%. alix: we appreciate it. those retail sales coming in strong. we are joined by david chelsea -- denny chelsea. were you surprised? >> i was surprised. it was a better-than-expected number. certainly it is on track, meeting for holiday sales. if anything, we have a long season. the next 10 days, given christmas is on a monday, will be important. inventories are clearing, and that sets us up for a january and february. guy: do you get a sense the u.s. consumer is slowing down? dana: the u.s. consumer is cautious, discerning. what has changed is below the lower and middle income consumer. look how we are not talking about student loan payments but you have seen a moderation in look three -- luxury consumer spend. it is not the same as last year. even luxury good sales are up 50% plus from 2019. it is slower this year than it was last year. alix: do you feel some sales were pulled forward into november? is that a risk for december numbers? dana: the risk for december numbers is a pull forward into october given amazon prime day. november overall, black friday was a solid weekend and we need to see want versus need come through. do not forget travel and experiences are part of that spend. guy: in terms of -- break it down for me sector by sector. what is happening? where is strength and weakness? if the consumer is more discerning, where are they spending and where are they not? dana: strength is in beauty. strength is in selective footwear. the cold weather has helped. overall, where you are seeing weakness, it continues -- you continue to see pressure points and department stores given income levels. the consumers under pressure. you continue to get stressed overall from some specialty stores out there. specialty stores like joanne's. you continue to see pressure in the home area or home specialty has been weaker. at home goes, it has been strong. alix: my skin products are the thing that never goes on sale. guy: but everything else does. you've described alix's shopping habits. alix: if i am buying something at a location, you probably do not want to invest in that because that probably means they are having deep discounts because i do not buy anything that is not on sale. will i be said next year -- sad year? like bloomingdale's or macy's or big guys like that that struggle with inventory. is that better now? dana: inventory levels and macy's are improved. you are seeing that from all the department stores. it is allowing retailers to chase into goods so they can get the goods consumers want. you have seen that for brands. guy: if interest rates get caught, what impact does that have on the retail sector? dana: if we see strength in the market, because of stock market volatility, you can tell how luxury goods do by the strength of the stock market. if we see a strong stockmarket, that will help luxury goods consumers. we need tourists from overseas to shop the u.s. and help our consumer names. right now, stocks are trading at high levels, given in a couple weeks they have really zoomed. the ability for earnings to catch up with stock prices is something we will need to see. next year will be about innovation and value. alix: i am stunned how empty it is. on the holiday season, that is crazy. dana: we do not have overseas tourists. we have domestic tourists more. alix: everyone still feels bad. we are going to talk about this in a second. they are feeling better, but sentiment is depressed. they keep spending. i am trying to understand what is behind that psychology. is this different than other periods you have seen? dana: the u.s. consumer is always a spending consumer. spending makes consumers feel good. we have seen credit card to one sees pick up. right now, we are focused more on essentials than discretionary. i think consumers, it gives them a sense of comfort to spend. certainly when you have taylor swift concerts going on, new movies coming out, it gives them a reason to spend. confidence breeds from labor and you are seeing low unemployment rates. guy: if the labor markets holds up, we are seeing claims data and retail data suggesting on employment remains low. claims are low. if we do not see a pickup in unemployment, do you expect the u.s. consumer to power through what is happening here? i hear what you're saying about discretionary story, but if it is underpinned by jobs, presumably strength remains. dana: strength does remain. you are seeing and also in retail and real estate where there is a lack of new development and more demand for spaces out there and retailers have updated their product and store formats. the utilization of those store formats, there is a reason why you are seeing the focus of retail being more energetic than it was a couple years ago, because that strength of the consumer is giving companies more confidence to invest. i am seeing that whether it is retail companies -- alix: this all tracks. thanks a lot. really good to see you. coming up, a new poll is highlighting the struggles for president biden as he makes a case for a second term. this is bloomberg. ♪ you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence. alix: coming up, sonal desai joins bloomberg television, 3:00 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. there are a lot of troubles growing from president biden's reelection bid. donald trump has pulled ahead in key swing state michigan as voters remain pessimistic about the u.s. economy, but they keep spending. kailey leinz is taking us through the polls here. let's start with michigan. what did we learn? kailey: trump is now ahead of biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election rematch in that state. this has not been the case across bloomberg polling. they were tied in that battleground state. now trump is ahead. when you look at the demographics, where biden is losing is pretty key members of his own democratic party, people who voted for him the first time around, one of them being suburban women. likely that comes down to economic concerns about inflation, prices people are seeing at the grocery store, and young people. voters ages 18 to 34. there is disappointment about the work biden has done in addressing student loan debt. there could be issues regarding israel. michigan has a large muslim population. there is growing discontent with how president biden is handling that and the civilian death toll in gaza. union workers, for all of president biden's rhetoric, are pulling suggests he is struggling to gain traction with union members. guy: i hear what you are saying about inflation, but the fed told disinflation will come down and stay down. does this pull change? we are a long way from the election. if the trend continues and inflation continues to fall, does it swing back biden's way? kailey: it could. what we hear from campaign strategists is voter minds about the economy tend to be cemented in the first and second quarter of the election year. if inflation does start trending in a more positive direction and we start to see pressures easing, that could change voter minds. what we see is when voters think about the economy broadly, consistent across polling, across swing states and age and racial demographics, they trust trump on the economy more than they do biden. that has been a stubborn fact for some time now. what may be leaning more in his favor and suggests he could gain ground is what they are asked about the national economy they feel more pessimistic than when asked about the local economy. that was trending more upward for him, so that could be a more positive sign. alix: how much of it is gasoline prices? kailey: we know that is the most visible sign of inflation for the american people. that is why the president has been outwardly trying to make sure that gas prices stay low, tapping the spr, encouraging other countries like opec-plus to be pumping more. even as we have seen gas prices go lower with other price pressures cooling, even as the labor market has stayed resilient with unemployment below 4%, the president does not get good marks on the economy. we will see if that changes. there is still almost a full year to go, but right now there is not a direct correlation. guy: is this biden losing or trump winning? i ask because i wonder if you were to substitute trump for nikki haley would you see the same numbers? kailey: the polling would suggest not necessarily. if we are looking at a rematch between trump and biden, a lot of voters do not want to see that. they would rather neither be the nominee for the republican and democratic parties. this pulling did show a lot of swing state voters suggested they would support a third-party candidate, so there is a lot of dissatisfaction with these two as candidates, but for democrats in washington, the idea nikki haley is more frightening to democrats because thinking goes that president biden may not be able to defeat her in the general election. pulling suggests biden might not be able to defeat trump either if these critical swing states are trending toward trump. those are the states that could decide the election overall, so this does not necessarily bode well for the president. alix: what you think the administration's message is going to be? kailey: they are working on track to tie the legislative accomplishment of the president to things voters are seeing quite like infrastructure development. it is why we saw the president a few weeks ago going to colorado, highlighting a win -- a wind factory that makes wind turbines in the district of lauren boebert. they are trying to make more direct connections, but it is largely going to be trying to fight this messaging that the one thing the president does have on his side is that he is an incumbent. he is not really dealing with a primary fight like trump is even though he is far and away the leader in the republican primary. president biden is dealing with other headaches. congress formalized a vote on an impeachment inquiry, so they will look into the president and his family members, including his son. that is not necessarily helpful for him. guy: it is not an easy pitch that he has to face over the next 12 months. thank you, kailey leinz with the latest data on what is happening in this key swing states. coming up, ubs trying to recoup millions of dollars in bonuses. details on that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪ (adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh alix:alix: we take a look at what is buzzing on wall street. first, a bloomberg scoop, ubs trying to claw back bonuses from credit suisse defectors. what is going on here? >> credit suisse is struggling through a money-losing quarter. it awarded some of its directors cash bonuses come a bit to try to retain talent as it was moving through these scandals. there were some strings attached to bonuses, that if the employees left within three years they would have to pay some or all of the bonus back, plus income tax. ubs has decided to go after some of that money, looking to recover about $1.4 billion, and ubs wants to recover a figure that is less than half of that. it has lawyered up and is threatening legal action to any employees who do not hand over the money. guy: in terms of -- what does it say about its relationship with the credit suisse brand? what does it tell us about the ongoing fight within the company to assert itself as well? is this about bonuses or is this about culture? is this about this is now ubs? is it more than just money? >> i think it is the latter, culture. ubs has this vast, complex task ahead of it of integrating credit suisse. with that comes a number of legal headaches that will likely cost it billions of dollars. ubs got credit suisse at a good price by one measure them a five cents on the dollar, so it has wiggle room to afford regulatory or legal hurdles, whatever they may look like, but the risk is the unknown element. it does not necessarily know what they will run into, but we know that the chairman has dubbed it the culture filter. they are running credit suisse through the culture filter to weed out these problems and this bonus situation is another headache on top of that. alix: can we go to the fun thing? blackstone every year puts out a holiday video where they make upwards the popular songs and dress up. i realize it is an ad for blackstone, but it is pretty funny. let's play if you -- a few of the blackstone holiday video. >> ♪ not to be confused with blackrock ♪ >> ♪ it is the alternative era filled with blackstone we lead in private equity it is true real estate and secondaries it is the alternative era build with blackstone ♪ >> this tour rolls on. guy: i do not know. if you can have secondaries in some kind of smooth video, that is not the worst thing i have seen. they are not the worst thing. >> apparently the genesis of this is that president john gray took his daughters to a taylor swift concert, loved it so much he decided the holiday video could be based on the idea that blackstone is going out to raise a fund on the alternative era tour, like taylor swift. guy: that is never going to happen. i think some sort of video involving alex and me would be bad. alix: this is what we do every day. >> may be some hidden talents should remain hidden. guy: yes. alix: we could do it to a beatles song. guy hates the beatles. guy: i hate the beatles. do not tell my father. he gets crossed when i talk about that. taylor swift is coming to europe next year. we will all get to experience the taylor swift experience in europe. alix: we will see what that does to inflation and growth. guy: absolutely. we should talk about what is happening with the markets. thank you for joining us on what is happening with ubs and that video, which i think is excellent. and if we get the opportunity to play some more we well. let me show you it is going on. this is the picture right now, stoxx 600 up .8%. looking at a decent gain here. that has not begun to fade as well. the bank of england certainly firmly pushing back on the idea that rates are coming down anytime soon. it still has an inflation problem, talking very much about that today. you also have an interesting story. yields are lower, but they are off early lows, christine lagarde making it clear that she did not even discuss rate cuts today. a chief economist at ecb joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: the ftse 100 in particular up by 1.2% today. the pound is having a good day. usually those are antagonistic. today, you see oil higher and commodity companies tracking hire as well. those two factors lifting the ftse 100. it is not a stock market day here in europe. it is in the states, but it is a central bank day. we are going to discuss. the countdown to the close starts right now. >> the
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