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Down. You can see the nasdaq down more than a ercent. Not such great action, either, in sectors, sara, with an echo of yesterday as well. Where energy and maybe staples were the only green arrows. Today its energy and utilities. The tenyear yield is back to 43, which is the cycle high. The data we got this morning, also not helpful. Better news for the economy, services came in a little bit stronger. But bad news for investors that are cheering on the whole disinflation story, because services, a key part of whats hot in this economy, could mean that inflation a little bit stickier than we think. And prices paid inside that Services Number also comes in a little bit hotter. Not ideal data for the markets. Well get the beige book later, which summarizes all the different districts across the country and gives a lot of color around inflation in services, like restaurants and theaters and hospitality. Usually a good read well watch that at 2 00. Our next guest, meantime, does expect a momentum slowdown, and the firsthalf market rally to reverse in the next 6 to 12 months. She says look to companies with strong pricing power, low exposure to labor and commodity costs. Joining us now, newburgher holly newman kroft. Her team manages more than 3. 5 billion by barrons, as one of the top Financial Advisers in the u. S. Great to have you back. Carl, thank you. The setup so far, your thesis has kind of worked nicely. Would you make adjustments to it if we do see growth really roll over . Our thesis all year is that weve been cautiously watching the market. Theres no doubt the market has had great run the first eight months of the year, even with some volatility in a down month in august, were still up, the s p 19 . Global equities up 15 . But there are a lot of headwinds, as sarah and you were just mentioning, you know, inflation might be stickier than expected. We expect the fed is going to have to keep rates higher for longer. We heard Susan Collins this morning say that until there is a clear path to inflation coming down, that the fed will not revert and pivot. And thats what we think at mv private wealth. And all of that will lead to an economic slowdown that we think will eventually play out in lower corporate earnings and will have to affect equities. So you have to remember, at mv private wealth, our job first and foremost is protection of our clients irreplaceable wealth. So we have to grow their assets responsibly, without taking too much risk, and in a taxefficient manner. And thats what weve done quite nicely. You know, my teams aum is up 15 year over year, the firms aum is up. And we protected it nicely down year. Were growing this year. And were going to stay the course and keep watching the headlines in the news. Do you think there have been some calls this week from jpmorgan, a good example, who argue that the rate environment, even if its higher for longer, increases the risk of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months. Is that somewhere in your playbook . It could be a soft last nighting or a recession. Were not expecting a deep recession, or what youre referring to as a crisis, but we are expecting an economic slowdown. We do believe in higher for longer. And the market today is priced to protection. Were expecting doubledigit Earnings Growth next year, multiples are trading above longterm averages, and so even if we navigate a soft landing, which has proven quite impossible in a tightening environment, historically, we are going to see expectations pull back. But s ps up 16 this year. Nasdaqs up 33 this year. Do you worry that you miss the rally with some of these concerns . We havent missed anything. We have equity exposure. We havent been overweight equities. And we will never position our client portfolios to be concentrated in the magnificent seven or f. A. A. N. G. We will always have diversification in our equity exposure. So we havent missed the rally. But the equity market is not appealing right now to go into more heavily. So were finding really great returns in fixed income and opportunities for outside returns and alternatives in private equity and in private debt. And there are some warning signs. I mean, you look at oil, the price of oil is up 10 , just this quarter. And russia has said, saudi arabia has said that theyll continue with their production cuts through the end of the year. Thats a risk to a second wave of inflation. Were seeing Wage Inflation super high, as evidenced by all the Union Strikes that were reading about. So theres a lot and china what about china . you know, responsible for 40 of global gdp growth over the last ten years. And their gdp number most recently is less than 4 annualized. Thats really concerning to us. So, we want to be mindful of all of the news. Its less fun to focus on the negative news, more fun to focus on the positive. And a client, actually, i think sarah told you this, texted me last time i was on and said, there was some woman who looked strangely like you posing as the grim reaper of the financial markets. Not negative, but cautious and aware, i would say. And we always ask, what would make you change the allocation and get more enthusiastic about stocks . I would say, if the fed pivots, which we dont expect sooner rather than later to tuts, you mean . Yeah, if they pivot to cuts, it would be more then we would see a market pullback and go overweight, into equities, because bond yields would start to come down. But for now, were going to stay the course, enjoy our growth and less volatility. Theres a lot of unanswered questions. You see at the bottom of the screen, looking for lowcost companies. Where would you say the richest minds are for companies that have done have made Good Progress with opex . We are real believers in any industry, you can find value companies. So we believe in active management. And in doing Due Diligence on every Company Balance sheet. Were not going to buy just a sector to buy it. Were going to do fundamental research on all of this the securities in our portfolios to try to find value. I know you talk about munis. Is there a part of the fixed income that you think is most underappreciated right now . I think right now, weve been very short duration and in the next quarter, well start to extend duration in anticipation of the fed eventually reversing course, but we dont see that as imminent right now. Look, will the fed hike, pivot, or pause . Will we have a soft landing or a recession . So many unanswered questions. And were going to, you know, read the news, listen to both of you, and all of your expert guests, and chart our course. Youre one of them thank you. Its good having you on. Thanks for coming in. Thank you. Weve got some news here on our parent company, comcast. Lets get back to the west coast and our david faber whos at comemunicopia. It involves hulu. Something that of course may be familiar to our viewers and that process by which, remember, comcast was down 33 can put to disney that ownership and force disney essentially to buy it. January 1st was when that was supposed to take effect. When basically comcast could say, hey, youre going to buy it now. Its been moved up, september 30th is now the date. So really, only a handful of weeks from now, comcast will be able to put, as it will, by the way, its 33 ownership stake in hulu to disney and disney will have to buy it. And that is something mr. Roberts shared here a few moments ago. He went into some detail of which the process itself, for which a value for hulu will be ascertained. Making it clear that it is not as though youre just going to get a couple of investment banks to say, this is what its worth based on values of the likes of netflix or multiples that trade for streaming properties, if you can even figure out any company multiples beyond netflix. He says the contract language is very close, and the appraisal process is clear in terms of, it has to be treated as if hulu were to be sold as is to value maximize the equity and it would have to be, its considered a hypothetical sale process in which you have numerous potential buyers, and you assume that the programming being produced by both comcast and disney is in perpetuity for the service. Its contractual language that people may not have been as focused on, but it is seen by mr. Roberts, certainly, as a real positive for the potential to realize value far above the 27 billion overall floor that is in place for the value of hulu. And in fact, in a sign of confidence, that they expect to get perhaps more than just 9 billion for their one third stake, comcast has also increased the pace of its buyback, or higher run rate, going to be several billion above the current run rate in buying stock back. All of which is why that stock has moved, of course, as you can see, higher. We want to share that when we get news somewhere where we are actually attending, its good to get it back to you. Thanks for laying it out. David faber in San Francisco with comcast shares up 1. 7 . When we come back, global m a was down 31 last quarter compared to 22. But with some recent deals making headlines, including todays energy deal, is m a ready to make a comeback . Well discuss with lazard ceo elect, peter orszag. Microsoft has pbillions ridig on the line as it tries to close that deal with activision blza. ll talk to microsofts head of gaming when were back in a moment. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Welcome back. This morning, Morgan Stanley out with new estimates for deal making, predicting the Fourth Quarter of this year will see the first increase on a year over year basis after seven straight quarters of declines. This on the back of deal news this morning between enbridge and dominion. And last month tapestry and capri striking a deal. Lets bring in peter orszag, the ceoelect at lazard, a role hell start october 1st, and he formerly served as the director of the office of management and budget in the obama administration. Peter, its good to have you. Are we kboipg to see an m a cutback . Great to be with you. I think were at one of these turning appoints that m a has bought them out, but we need to be clear what that means. Theres an increase in overall activity and discussions. It then takes a little bit of time for that to manifest itself in new announcements. And thats what the Morgan Stanley report was suggesting may occur in the Fourth Quarter. But its also really important to remember that in terms of completions, that is deals that are actually closing, that really reflects what was happening, you know, nine months ago, or a year ago. And we are seeing, excuse me, we are seeing deals take longer to close, mostly for regulatory reasons. I was just going to say, what is leading to the thaw . Is it the fact that the fed is close to the end of the hiking cycle . Is it the fact that microsoft and activision were successful in challenging the ftc, which could open the wave of i guess deal making . Yeah, i think its a push and pull of several factors. Youve got the underlying drivers of m a activity, technology, Life Sciences revolution, reshoring and the disentanglement with china in the greater economy. All of those are drivers towards m a activity. And then you have three headwinds, pricing, financing, which is thawing, and regulatory. And on regulatory, things are taking longer to close, but it is significant that the ftc backed off of not only lost the activision case, but backed off of the amgen horizon case, providing a little bit of clarity that there is a pathway forward to completion. And what youre seeing is an expanded willingness to consider those kinds of deals along with others and in a perhaps clearer environment. Do you see m a providing any type of vacuum. In other words, do they uncoil their springs in the hopes of a chang to an administration thats a little more permissive . I think you are starting to see, again, a turning point and lots of discussions about green shoots. But the pace of activity is definitely picking up. The only thing that people need to remember, it takes time for deals to be announced after initial discussions begin, and another period of time to close. I dont really see the election as a big impediment right now. But if youre looking at when will deals actually be completed, theres just a natural lag in the process, and even if the regulators are being a bit clearer at the margin about what they will challenge or wont challenge, and the courts are being a bit clearer about even challenge deals, what is permissible and whats not, that still takes a lot of time. What do you think about ftc chair lina khans. Now that youre on the deal making side, it seems like theres news every day, amazon today reports that theyre going to get a suit from the ftc. What do you think theyre trying to do. Well, she made clear at the Economic Club of new york what shes not she doesnt believe that every traction, you know, violates the statutes. I think there is a lot of ambiguity, about whether the ftc is reinterrupting existing statutes, and thats whats leading to some of the losses in court. The result of that is what youre seeing again in csuites and boardrooms is an expanded willingness to say, look, the ftc may or may not or the department of justice may or may not object to this, but if the courts are providing clarity, perhaps we can proceed regardless. We have to build in additional time for a trial and the additional cost of that, but if the odds of winning are high enough, deals will proceed anyway. And in addition to that, again, i think it is noteworthy that the ftc backed off of the amgen horizon case, suggesting, perhaps, i dont want to get too excited about it, but perhaps there will be greater clarity about which transactions will be challenged and which ones will not. What about the environment in washington . Peter beon, regulatory ftc, im sure youre keeping a close eye on the possibility of a Government Shutdown happening the end of the month. In your prior hat you wore, do you think this is where were headed and do you think it will have an impact for investors . I think the impact of a Government Shutdown is much less material than the risk of the debt limit issue that we are thankfully passed, for now so, hard to tell exactly how the negotiations over a Government Shutdown, which involves that part of the budget that are annual appropriations. Its not quite as disastrous a situation as the debt limit would have been. But its not helpful, in an economy that is still chugging along decently, to have that kind of ambiguity or that kind of uncertainty. And again, it just reflects the extreme polarization that has taken over washington, and is occurring in an environment in which there has been a significant increase in the budget deficit, despite the fact that the economy remains decent. Hey, peter, finally, i wonder where does m a stack in the list of priorities given the attention thats being paid to things like capex after years of underinvestment and the ai chase. Obviously, the cost of existing debt, weve already seen buy backes kind of suffer as a result of these shifting priorities. Can it compete . Obviously, that depends on the sector and the company, but in many cases, inorganic approaches help to accelerate, so deal making, help to accelerate Companies Getting to where they want to go. And i think thats again why youre starting to see some degree of momentum in the marketplace, because of those underlying drivers that i spoke about. That again can be accelerated by a deal relative to investing yourself. But its very companyspecific. Theres not one answer there. Really quickly, theres a lot of excitement around ipos now with instacart and arm. What are you advising companies about going public at this moment . Well, what i would say about that is i think it reflects one of the headwinds had been financing markets in general. Its not just some degree of reopening in the ipo market, but financing markets writ large are becoming, you know, Interest Rates are higher, but the availability of financing is becoming more widespread, and that is one of the things that has been changing over the past couple of months. And the ipo activity is a reflection of that broader point. Got it. Peter, great to get all of this color from you. Thank you very much. Good to be with you. All right, next time, youll be ceo, but for now, ceoelect. Congrats. Peter orszag. Speaking of deals. Look at next gen health care. Thoma bravos deal to take that public tomorrow. Still to come this morning, cfra expecting the ufaw strike if we get one to last for several weeks. And theres one stock they believe will be hurt the most. Well discuss that with an analyst. Plus, a touchdown for delta . The airline partnering with none other than tom brady. Details on what an nfl player can do to bring to an rle. Aiin its not a sponsorship deal, interestingly enough. W were back in just a moment. because this game is for everyone. This is cynthia suarez, cfo of gogo foodco. , an Online Food Delivery service. Business was steady, until. Gogofoodco. Go check it out. Whaatt . overnight, users tripled. Which meant hiring 20 new employees and buying 20 new laptops. So she used her American Express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. Somebody ordered some laptops . Cynthia suarez. Cfo. Mvp. Built for cynthias business. Built for your business. Amex business. Welcome back. European markets set to close in a few moments. Stocks mostly lower as investors focus on those voluntary oil supply cuts from saudi arabia and russia. And the message from ecb policy makers about a decision about a september rate hike is still up in the air. Theyve already hiked nine straight times. New data coming in this morning as well. German new manufacturing orders falling 11. 7 from last month. Orders falling across numerous sectors, including computers, electronics. On top of that, eurozone retail sales also come in slightly weaker than expected as well. Weak data overseas and indications of resilience here in the u. S. , sending the u. S. Dollar higher. It is hovering near the highest level since march, as the dollar surges, some of these currencies that are getting hit hard, japan and china are being forced to take action, or at least speak. The yuan at its lowest level, the chinese currency, since 2007. China has already sought to try to boost the currency by asking stateowned banks to sell dollars. And j. P. Overnight issuing a strong warning, saying that the nation is ready to take action, apology the land decline of the japanese yen. You know forx traders. Theyre always going to challenge authorities when it comes to interventions. It takes a lot to intervene and change the direct and the trend of a currency. But with a weakening overseas data and the u. S. , higher yields, remember, dollar usually chases yields. And the fact that there are still worries about persistent and sticky inflation, thats going to keep this trend going, as long until they either intervene or we change the data trend. At least canada held. Canada held steady on Interest Rates. Maybe a precursor for the u. S. U. S. Is set to hold steady in september as well, but in november its a 50 50. Microsoft launching the exclusive xbox game star field today as the Activision Blizzard deal remains up in the air. Ike , so you know all you need for recovery. And you are . Im an investor. In invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to. Nasdaq 100 innovations like. Wearable training optimization tech. Uh, how long are you. Im done. Im okay. 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And theres no catch, its fre. We make money from ads, but they dont follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. Dow s p on track for a third negative day in the last four. Nasdaq tracking for a Third Straight negative day. Dow, low of the day was down 227. Down 200 points. S p 500 down three quarters of a percent. The only other sector is utilities. Technology is at the boston of the list. The nasdaq comp down a full percent. Higher yields, stronger dollar, stronger oil prices. Not a great recipe for stocks. With a bright light calendar on data and earnings this week. Meantime, catching our attention this morning, a trio of notes showing the street starting to worry about how a potential uaw strike later this month might affect the auto industry. First, theres jeffries highlighting some difficult talks, and then web bush and cfra, both seeing serious risks in the event of a walkout. One of those analysts joins us this morning, garrett nelson. Its great to have you. I would love to get your take, just generally on whether or not you see sort of a big three happening at once or do they go after one on a pattern negotiation . Whats your view . Thats the big question right now. Its unclear if the uaw workers are just going to strike at one company. Most likely being stem cellanis, or whether it will be all three, the detroit three, stelantis, gm, and ford. Thats the big uncertainty. But we think the consensus is that there will be a strike. We think this strike could last several weeks, perhaps even stretching for months. Just given that the two sides appear to be very far apart. Much farther apart than last time, four years ago, when there was a 40day strike. This appears to be much more of a divide this time around. You think the streets more worried about the actual interruption of production or the result that would be in the form of higher wages or union measures, work measures, that maybe the company would not like. In the nearterm, of course, we think the streets more concerned about the impact of production. The inventories have finally recovered to levels that are close to normal, but after a very difficult period of the last two years, when inventories were at record levels, because of supply chain issues and semiconductor shortages, they finally recovered and prices have kind of evened out. But were you know, if theres a strike, we think that you could be looking at another increase in prices. And then longer term, just the magnitude of the wage increases. The uaw is pushing for wage increases of more than 40 . Thats going to really impact the bottom line of those three companies, mostly, General Motors in our opinion. Why do you say that . I was going to ask why you say gm is likely the biggest loser in the event of a strike . Its given their percentage of uaw workers. In 2019, when there was a 40day strike, it negatively impacted gms earnings by about 3. 6 billion for the year, or 1. 89 a share. So they just have more exposure, theyre not as diversified in terms of their Production Base and profitability base, as either ford or stellantis, so it really would impact them the most. What about this posture from the head of the uaw, the president , sean fein. We followed some of his comments pretty aggressive, pretty confrontational, calls this a defining moment. Where do you think that is it personality driven, is it the labor environment that were seeing . The fact that theyre emboldened by other strikes in other areas, like what we saw with u. P. S. And teamsters . Or something specific to the automakers . Its a combination of all of these things, but if you look back four years ago, when the last deal was struck, that was just months before covid. And, you know, i think the covid experience, the decline in real wages for workers is a lot of whats behind this. But fame was just elected to that position less than six months ago. And so hes really determined to make his mark in this first round of negotiations, as head of the uaw. And so, you know, all signs point to this potential being a prolonged strike. Theyve also increased strike pay by nearly double. So striking uaw workers will be getting 500 a week in strike pay. Four years ago, they were only getting 275 a week. So that really in our view prolongs the potential for a long strike. Hey, finally, garrett, on tesla, you point out a net winner, although its had some trouble reasserting itself over the 50day. And theres a lot of commentary this week or so, talking about, how sentiment might be at risk, given the pricing pattern and what might happen to margins. Your thoughts on that . A lot of concern still concerning margins. And tesla really kicked off this pricing war on evs in early january, when they announced their first round of price cuts. Since then, there have been several price cuts announced. But we think that given the selloff in the stock over the last six weeks or so, we do view it as a buying opportunity. Tesla, of course, is 100 nonunion, so theyre being viewed as a winner in the event of a prolonged uaw strike. And there are still a lot of things that we like in the story. The companys on the cusp of first production and deliveries of the cyber truck, and thats going to be a big part of the growth over the next one to two years. Theyre also breaking ground on a new factory in mexico, of course, and theyre still ramping up to full production, their factories in austin and in berlin. So, you know, i think any way you slice it, they are going to be a winner in terms of market share gains, both in the nearterm and in the longterm. Yeah, i think shanghai also celebrating a 2 million milestone production. Garrett, well see what happens as we get closer to the 14th. Thanks for your time. Thank you. Also want to mention that uaw president shawn fain is joining last call tonight. One more note that caught our attention this morning, bernsteins bud lights tracker, five months since the campaign with a transgender flinfluencer sparked boycotts. With volumes for the week ending august 26th down 30 from last year. Meantime, bud lights competition continues to reap the rewards. Bernstein indicating that we could see larger than usual share gains for molsin coors. Really have not seen much of a rebound. There looks to be more lasting damage to this brand. Its hurt the whole category. By the way, td cowan does upgrade constellation on some share shift. Meanwhile, microsofts head of gaming is next on the reaelse of its game starfield today. Thats coming up next. Dont go anywhere. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. Indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. Visit indeed. Com hire welcome back. Wall streets buzzing about tom brady teaming up with delta this morning. Our phil lebeau has the details. Phil, has a strategic adviser, what does that mean . I know, some people have already said, is this a madeup title . But he is a strategic adviser, has a tenyear contract with delta. His focus will be on Leadership Initiatives hell be talking with delta executives as well as delta team members, on a periodic basis, applying what hes learned over his years becoming a future hall of fame quarterback into what they can learn as they apply leadership lessons at delta. Earlier today, we talked with him on squawk box, along with ed bostion about how this arrangement will work out. Very fortunate to join the team and working with all of the employees and, you know, continue to help inspire people to grow great communities and teams of people and companies and ive been very fortunate over the years to be a part of a lot of those. The one thing that got me about tom is he talks about doing things the right way. Everything with tom is doing things thats why the patriots were so successful. They did things the right way, consistently, everybody was in, it was one way. And it was the right way. And thats what we need to be doing. By the way, as you take a look at shares of delta, we should point out that ed bostion believes that this is an agreement, a partnership, that will pay benefits for delta. He understands that there will be some people sit there and say, youve got a glorified pitchman, thats it. And he says, no, we believe that we can impart some of toms wisdom to our kpexecutives and will make us a better airline. And its a tenyear agreement. You can see why that would rally the troops, depending on what your mission was. Really great interview this morning on squawk. More broadly, ive got to get your take on the southwest guidance about leisure bookings in august. A two, threemonth low. The xla almost a fourmonth low. We know what oil prices have done. You have a double whammy hitting the airlines right now, and southwest touch upon this in terms of its guidance. You have seen a pullback in terms of leisure bookings. Not surprised about the delta muse. If youve noticed their promotions, lately, theyve been sending out initiatives or offerings saying, buy this fare, friend can fly for free or a discounted fare. You can see theyre looking to stoke the elm embers with regard to leisure. Everybodys guidance has gone up. We heard from united today, were hearing from other airlines. You will see all of them raising their cost expectations for the third quarter. Nobody, so far, has cut their expectations in terms of earnings for the third quarter, but if Oil Continues to move higher and jet fuel moves higher, you can be certain that there probably will be some pullback on those estimates. Does tom have to fly commercial, like a certain percentage of time . We asked him that today. He said, sure, you know, and i have to imagine that once in a blue moon. I have to imagine that there will be some element to flying delta here and here. All right, good. Im glad you asked the important stuff i was wondering about. Phil, thank you. Phil lebeau. Meantime, this carriage dispute between disney and charter is heating up as disney unveils this new promotion to boost streaming growth and se om of the biggest names in media weigh in. More details on tech check when were back after the break in two. Disney is trying to boost growth amid with an aggressive promotion amid this ongoing standoff with charter over the contract fees. Our Julia Boorstin here to break it all down. What it means for the future of tv in our tech check segment. Well, sarah, disneys battle with charter is being called an existential referendum on the future of the tv bundle and a lot of other ceos are weighing in. Comcast ceo brian roberts, thats cnbcs parent company, discussing it today at the Goldman Sachs comemunicopia conference saying that hes not surprised while every company is dealing with their version of this transformational moment. The consumer wants simplicity and the most bang for their buck and this dispute is putting tension around some of those issues. Meanwhile, paramount ceo bob backish commenting saying a dispute like this seems inevitable and that hes been focusing on modernizing par mounts distribution deals to offer their streaming product as a tiered offering for paid tv subscribers. So all of this comes as charter is pushing to get access to disney plus for its Subscriber Base without any additional cost. So all of this and this conversation about disney versus charter comes as today disney slashes the price of disney plus with ads to 2 a month. Thats a 75 discount for new and returning disney plus subscribers. And thats a discount for three months. Its a promotion thats been in the works for a while, unrelated to the charter deal, but its part of disneys big push to get new subscribers to adopt this plan that gives it a dual revenue stream. Disney is pushing its ad option as today madison and wahl forecasts a 5 increase in u. U. S. Ad revenue. Thats excluding political ads. Thats a return to normalized growth for u. S. Advertising. But not all ads are equal. While internetrelated advertising, they say, has become increasingly important, the tv advertising sector is experiencing what, quote, might feel like an existential crisis. Now, on top of accelerating cordcutting, there are concerns about how the strikes will impact new content, what that will mean for viewership, and ad dollars, and of course, the ability for all of these paid tv bundles to hold on to subscribers. Carl . Its just amazing, whats going on in the business right now. When it rains, it definitely pours. Julia, thank you. More squawk on the street after the break. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. Its raising capital to help companies change the world. Opportunity is making the dream of Home Ownership a reality. And driving the world forward to a Greener Energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. At ice, we connect people to opportunity. Welcome back. Microsoft launching its highly anticipated exclusive xbox game today, coming from bethesda, acquired for 7. 5 billion in 2021. Our steve kovach joins us now with the executives behind the launch. Steve, over to you. Reporter and joining me is phil spencer, microsofts gaming ceo, and todd howard, director of microsofts bethesda studio. Thanks for joining us. Phil, i will start with you. Thanks for having us. Reporter going into this launch today, the stakes are huge. Were nearly three years into the xbox cycle. Still havent really seen a big critical and Financial Success on the xbox side of things. What are the stakes here for starfield . Is this the kind of game you will think will drive more console sales and subscriptions, phil . Well, were definitely seeing huge demand for the game. The game has just been in preview. Weve had more players for any nextgen exclusive than weve had this generation. Today is when tens of millions of game pass players are going to get to play. Its the most wish listed game weve ever had between bethesda and xbox on steam. Big game releases are a lot of fun, and its great to be a part of it. Reporter todd, youve been working on this game for the better part of a decade now. Its out now. Whats the reception been like . And is that translating into people logging on today and downloading and playing starfield for the first time . I mean, its just incredible for us here. It has been a long journey. Im in the studio. Were overjoyed with the excitement about the game and getting in peoples hands finally and really with our games we build these gigantic worlds that transport you. Its when everybody plays the game it really comes alive. Were excited, the games weve done in the past have been played not just hugely at launch but for years and years. Were going on 12 years so we couldnt be more excited today. Reporter phil, that leads into my next question for you. This game starfield is an exclusive to xbox and pc. There were people a little upset they wouldnt be able to play on other platforms. Acquire studio, maybe keep the legacy franchises alive. We know you plan to do that with call of duty. But should we expect to see starfield on other platforms ever or what we should expect moving forward, new games from acquired studios exclusive to xbox . You use the term exclusive, if we look at it today, people on xbox series s, affordable console series x, the most powerful on pc and via cloud, and cloud enables any webenabled device to play starfield. This will be available to hundreds of millions of people on devices they already own and looking to make this game as accessible as it can be to players. Maybe still exclusive, though . The game is available on so many different places where people can go play. Definitely on the console, on the xbox series s or x and we see great demand for the console and the game on the console. Reporter thats all we have time for. Thank you for joining us. Carl, sara, ill send it back to you. Steve, thank you. Steve, well talk to you for a moment about that last point. This was a Sticking Point in the ftc and all the competitor complaints against microsoft acquiring activision that they would take names like call of duty and launch exclusively on their platforms. I know they made a deal on call of duty, but it was an interesting question you posed. Reporter an interesting answer, sara. He said this is what they see as the future of gaming is this Netflix Streaming game series. Instead of downloading or buying a physical copy can you stream it and play it anywhere, so you notice phil saying not admitting theyre not going to put it on other platforms necessarily, but you can stream it to your Android Phone and play it that way. Thats where theyre pushing people to. This game is launching, if you dont want to spend 70 and youre a subscriber, you can play it now. Its included in the subscription. Well see that more and more for xbox. It is a big bet and will be an even bigger bet if and when the activision deal closes. The timing of any gaming decision, its a little bit of a stretch. If you were to say the strike lasted for a very long time, content dropped. Churn gets going. It will be incrementally good news for gamers, i would have to imagine. Reporter we had zelnick on and he said possibly. Hes seeing it in his industry a little bit, hollywoods loss could be video games gain. Its not perfect like that. These games come out few and far between, not the same cadence as network tv or netflix. It is very possible if the strike keeps going on and on, games fill in the hole for sure. Nice to have you downtown, steve kovach. The dow down 204, 4460. Mike santoli is here. The inverse of yesterday, the average stock is doing better than the s p 500 today, the equal weight is actually only modestly down after getting slammed yesterday. So it seems like another one of these rates, because its funny, the sort of negative photo print negative of goldilocks, because goldilocks is not too hot or too cold, but when youre in that zone, when thats your expectation, you fear both the heat and the chill. And i think thats what were doing at the same time at the moment. Yields bumping higher. Theres the six month of the s p 500 versus equal weight. S p still below early february but the overall market has still been kept afloat by the big caps. On the other hand, the oneyear tbill making a new high. Its not really the one that weve emphasized but were talking about a year from today, the best guess is were at 5. 5 . That means another hike by the fed, certainly not a cut priced in based on the tbill yields and we have to struggle with whether the economy can sort of swallow that. Its weird, on the one hand, you have hotter data like services, which you dont want to see it hotter there. Thats a big source of inflation. And on the other hand, weaker data, Mortgage Applications today. Some of the comments i pointed out from retailers. Thats sort of the not best Case Scenario where the economy is worse and you have this kind of stagflationary environment. At the moment were dealing with both of them from a decent starting point. A little bit of a headwind with gasoline prices. It does create pressure upward. The strong dollar doesnt help either. Interesting note out of bofa on student loan payments, they think it shows the consumer was ready for it and theyve made the adjustments and may mean less down side risk for spending from here on out. I saw some consumer surveys, yes, they were deferring, there was this long leadup where maybe its not going to be a big blow. I dont think anybody thought it would be the thing that really sank the story. Its much more about that piled on top of other things that seemed like they were all pushing in the direction of a little bit of a restraint on consumer spend. The beige book at 2 00 p. M. And anecdotes about what different regions around the country are seeing on pricing pressure which does remain the number one question for this economy and what the fed does next and the markets which is can disinflation continue to come down. If the numbers themselves cooperate, were not going to worry about a hot Services Number. Thats the secondary piece. The ism survey is not exactly the feds focus. You could say price paid, Commodity Prices are up a little bit. Well watch that and work with what we can given the light calendar on earnings and data. Lets get to the judge. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the halftime report. Im scott wapner. Front and center this hour, the slight in apple shares and what it could mean to the market overall if that stock continues to pull back. The Investment Committee debating it. Joining me for the hour today, steve weiss, liz young, joe Terry Bradshaw and brian belski. Take a look at the markets. We have our eyes on a number of different, important places. The nasdaq is the biggest loser. It is down by more than 1 . You have brent above 90 for the first time this year. The dollar at

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