come in second. they're not winner take all. a national look at republicans shows that without the 21% that call themselves conservative here, chris, he still could win the nomination but without republicans who just call themselves conservative, that's about half of republicans, he would not be able to win the nomination based on just the republican votes alone. it's pretty clear here in these broad scenarios, they con can firm romney has a challenge ahead. >> fascinating stuff and you were nodding your head when you were looking at that. >> in the news media we love a good fight, but i think there is some risk that we exaggerate the impact of one bad night for romney. maybe the predictor with the best record of predicting election results is n-trade, the betting site. it had romney drop a little bit. it still has him with an 80% chance of winning the nomination and that frankly feels about right to me. i think that the risk is more that he gets hurt along the way in the long process.
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