A democratic system days after the vote to one himself promise to draw lessons from it saying he understood the messages given by the people. Turkey is losing his grip thats our topic here on quadri going to talk about that im joined here in the studio by. The mayor he works for g. W. Turkish department and says a great moment for turkish democracy but the real struggle has only begun alan poser is a commentator for the daily de belt he believes everyone has lost the trust of the educated leaps but hes far from finished and laura like obvious is an analyst for the turkish politics for the berlin based think tank German Council on Foreign Relations she thinks quote the result of the local elections since a full and other metropolitan cities indicate a shift in political conditions in turkey. Thanks to all of you for being here and thanks to our viewers from wherever you are as well or if we could start with you whats happening in turkey and what are the voters in istanbul saying right now well i think what weve seen in the midst phone actions not just stumble but also already in march is that. He is losing its grip especially in the big cities in turkey the cities that have large wants her place in the Economic Centers of turkey in istanbul especially obviously was you know really important for the opposition to win for for the a. K. P. Obviously very hot for loss and i think what we see is that 1st of all their position which is quite different factions of people actually could unite around this idea of saying you know kind of like we are united against the system for one and against this like one man. And at the same time we also see that you know more and more supporters of the a. K. P. In the mayhap equalisation actually disappointed in the government and also themselves not cutting out to vote as much as they did before maybe some shift that disappointment in the u. K. People might be an understatement what do you think triggered this result i think it has multiple factors over the. Economy conditions has always been one of the dominant forces congress very big and. In turkey if we look at the breaking point when it when were talking about the similar seismic shifts in the political environment in turkey over the past 50 years we always see the economy as one of the most important underlying causes of that so when. The public when the people on the street are having a problem with. Take bringing the bread home they are looking for alternatives like this course might be a good driving force or other political factors might be good good driving forces but at the end of the day kona makes. The way that people can make an earnings makes a decision and i think one of the main reasons why people decided to jump off the ball to right now is because of the political economy situation in the country economics is so determined in a vote especially one like this for a city like istanbul for big cities allan when you look at this is it just the economics of the background to this vote or is it also aired one potentially losing his political instincts i mean hes the one who called for this rerun vote right and that was a huge mistake because the 1st time. His party lost i think by 13000 votes now they lost by. Yeah 8077700000 yeah exactly i mean incredible and people you know put off the holidays to be there and to be able to vote or came back from their holidays are from from from wherever they were to vote against so this is this is a huge huge huge miscalculation. And so people with but in spite of this if you look at the map of. The election map and you say that the c. H. P. Has read your to read rim the part of the key that tourists you know is. Down there on tidy and so on theyre all there looking people educated people people have to do with tourism are situated they voted against with the huge inside except for ancora is still power base i mean where the rural areas you know the poor parts of the country the religious parts of the country people where sunni religious. Is very strong they still vote for the k. P. C. And less you can bridge that gap target going to fall apart as it has so often before were going to talk about bridging the gap and the divide coming up in the program id like to go back to laura and what you were saying about the k. P. There is talk right now of a split in the governing party in a. K. P. Do you think thats a possibility or rooms have been going on for quite a while now that you have prominent figures than a. K. P. Tolo and. Are considering forming their own movements own party as pissing away from the a. K. P. And i think you know if thats the case if we will see that the election has made that probably more likely. That they will see this that as an opportunity to let kind of move forward with with the traditions and there has been a you know kind of differences in opinion within the a. K. P. For quite a while and weve seen. Much more criticism coming out of they k. P. Itself do you think that is something youre the one struggling with right now keeping the Party Together i totally agree with this point of view because our lawn has already been losing. Deep people that he started his own cause with when he formed a k p back in the beginning of 2000 so the figures like. It that were told blunt and so on and so forth these figures belonging to their cause at that cause was kind of actually bringing together the conservative masses with the center right leaning people in turkey and they keep it has always been a quality of different center right forces or sometimes to an extreme right but those forces in turkey so its based never presented a some sort of a political islam that is being depicted all the time and once that quality starts to shatter and i want to go back to the economy and economy what is one of the reasons why it was chatter. You might start seeing those movements coming within from within the party and if you if you add the fact that our dawn has managed to antagonize the people that he started with and he surrounded himself with bunch of yesman over the past few years that he started losing his grip so it actually. The whole party is based on his charisma and nothing else because they are not producing in a sort of policies over the past 5 years ok so youre saying there is a possibility that he could lose his grip on power would that mean from what im hearing is theres a possibility that he could be replaced by a broader conservative coalition would that get a majority in the country i dont think so and i dont think he would lose his group within his own party but his own party eventually might lose its grip over the over the government so like you know if we go to another action sometime soon its not going to happen before 20000 to 2 at least on this theres a early election called. The a k p my. Not be able to secure a majority within the parliament but thats far ahead but i think we should focus on right now how his party will manage to survive this all this i say that its experiencing right now those relate to the vote and the economy well there is a consensus right now that this vote was free and fair and as alan was pointing out its also pointed out that theres a deep divide in Turkish Society between conservative voters mainly in the countryside and the more liberal voters in urban areas. Im so excited the right person has one justice has one love and unity one for the people in istanbul have one told you that you really do need it everythings great now youre not young we will work for a Brighter Future together shoulder to shoulder and you really im so happy that youre going to. Change was necessary. People had enough of the incoming government. Turn if you need some fresh blood new rhetoric and a new face i think this result is a reflection of that he has a mind he has and i get it i think people dont see the good things to do one has done and all said our relatives came here from other cities just for today now were so disappointed they think. The government mustnt allow him to serve as mayor. Ok we just heard one voter there saying the government should step in and overturn the popular vote that was a last sound bite we listen to how deep are the divisions between a. K. P. Voters and the opposition shot i think the way that the government has been playing this whole blame game over the past 5 years because of the negative and negative things going on in the country that has a resonance within within the you know part of supporters within the masses but i think the president is no longer as valid as he used to be so of course theres this polarization of course there is this the wide within the society and i think what it can be molded that just for the municipality but its a big discourse that discourse is based not polarization but having a comprehensive approach to trying to reach out to everyone and i think it turned out to be a good strategy because were seeing that like that from a few 1000 waltz we have hundreds of thousands of difference in just 3 weeks later that means that theres a huge shift from the k. P. For. The people who voted for de k. P. Candidates and then shifted to you mumbled so turkey is actually very tired off this polarized language there were 8 elections in the country over the past 6 years can you imagine that almost one election including local elections under referendums so people are tired of elections and you cannot do business when youre in an election environment where youre waiting for whats going to happen after the elections and as you are tired from that kind of fireman and as youre tired from that kind of a Political Division and polarization then you start shifting to a person whos giving you hope and him only managed to actually gather the whole of so many people and i think its going to be over time more successful as he will continue playing this game because they managed to find a good strategy and they are developing that and its just the beginning for dumbass going to be a long and hard way to go and shell is the government is when you hear about this type of political strategy do you think it could be a winner to bring the country together. You know i really dont know you know enough about the c. H. P. In to to judge that but all im saying is i do one anticipated this this is why he changed the system so we now have a president ial system if he was just you know Prime Minister all of like and like to resume a in britain you know he could you know he might be out tomorrow but as a president hes in or didnt forget that you know the 100 if not thousands of journalists in jail of teaches of people accused of being members of the u. N. The same and before that there are also people in jail who he together with then he got rid of out of the military and so on so he does the i mean i really wouldnt underestimate the ones power he may have lost the mass of people in. And izmir but he has as long as the military is still behind him and hes purged the military as long as hes the president you know i the question is can the memorial and the c. H. P. In the opposition keep up this momentum across the country the real issues of the like in turkey potentially would shift the hands in a peaceful transform ation i think that should be the question that needs to be asked because as you said i mean youre right and that the whole system is now structured in a way that keeps his grip over the country which is made it less stable in fact it is less stable pole tickly economy internationally theres less they will but at the same time as i was saying the whole system is actually kind of keeping him is in power. Like like i was trying to say earlier turkey to the turkish government did not develop a viable policy a policy that a state needs to address to the needs of its population in the past 56 years so the whole system is based actually designed actually a pong. Keeping personality. And that is one of the weakest point well that the same time that is one of the strongest points off the opposition to be not to be underestimated either i mean when we look at it and be at the same time a house of cards its a house of cards but we have to look at this base that pointed out is strongly behind the one i mean when you when you look at the numbers 45 percent of his them bowl voted against him oh i mean that thats an important point and for the candidates how do they view laura where they want the country headed this 45 percent in istanbul not in the conservative areas out in the countryside where do they want to see the country headed well i think 1st of. Them will also have very conservative areas so i wouldnt kind of rate this is things. Right. And i think so i think for people there is still the belief in the president that out one can deliver. They theres a belief that you know. For them this is still the right direction even if its not perfect but its still the best option compared to the g. O. P. Or other. Possible opposition policies so i think obviously you know the support for the hippie isnt going to go away in like a day and i think a lot of people still think that the times when they really did develop the economy maybe well they look at you know the improvements have been made. And so i think its a question of you know kind of what do they see the future but also kind of who do they believe can deliver you know the problems and whos a better alternative you have an Economic Analysis here you think political islam is secondary to how the economys going but what do the conservative voters what do what does the base for everyone want to see for the nation what are their interests what are their goals. In reference to my words earlier like the. K. P. Has always been a quality of different forces within the Society Nothing necessarily coming from a very conservative background nor a political islam is world view so those center right forces have come together and the a. T. P. Managed to deliver within the 1st decades what they were looking for they were looking for more representation they were looking for more opportunities in economy ways and weve seen this huge boom in the in the countryside in the not totally new entrepreneurs came out new holdings for form new companies started so they cant be managed to create its all in kind of middle class. Base at which people are enjoying the things that modern capitalism can deliver in their own way so this is still valid and i think one of the reasons why they the government part of it still has almost half of the support within the society is because we have learned because they delivered that what it does same time they are failing more and more day by day to continue delivering that so thats why it might shift the poverty might shift ok lets talk about the possible power shift who is the man that millions of people in turkey are pinning their hopes on molo lets find out. At grammy addresses his supporters he presents a young and dynamic image his slogan is everything will be fine the 49 year old has managed to present himself as worldly and open yet conservative and religious to his style contrasts with the authoritarianism of president project i have ever won. The central left candidate of the Republican Peoples Party managed to garner votes from many kurds and make a Party Supporters as well he presents himself as someone who wants to and can unite the people. Very good this get it about this is not a victory this is a new beginning. I would like to say that as of tomorrow as mayor i will treat 16000000 people equally. The Mayors Office in istanbul is said to be the key to the office of the presidency of turkey could pose a threat to everyone. What do you think can he pose a threat to the one can he bring the nation together behind his leadership i think not not unknown is if he can form a coalition with with the liberal elements who supported the. Part of the he must reach out to the mall religious parts of society then if you can do that great job. I agree with that i think that so far he has been playing the game rights and if he doesnt fail in his game and if he continues gathering the masses behind him get the support done he might eventually challenge the leadership in the country do you think laura see ready for National Politics well i think you know i agree in that i think he has been playing that really well but now the question is can he actually keep that up because at the moment hes trying to unify the more conservative as well as the nationalist as well as the kaddish as well as the secular liberals so you know i think the question is can he keep keep that up what he has been doing right now successfully while jailing political opponents is one method the government has used as it sees it to guarantee National Unity while it points of the countrys failed coup the kurdish separatist movement and the ongoing violence in syria as threats to National Unity at one point of the countrys failed coup as the primary element there but his critics say hes using these very real challenges as excuses to crack down on people who do not share his vision of where turkey should go 16 of them are in court right now for whats known as the gaze a trial there some of the many thousands whove been jailed for their political leanings. The silly record in prison complex west of istanbul is said to be the biggest of its kind in europe the courtrooms are mainly for political trials 16 representatives of turkeys Civil Society are in the dock lawyers architects and artists accused of planning and financing and attempt to oust heir to want. Their protests began peacefully in 2013 they were primarily directed against plans to build on the site of gezi park in istanbul yet allegations of corruption and nepotism and president had to once government groups louder and louder. The more violence the police and state used against the demonstrators the more nearby residents supported the protest. Demonstrations took place in other turkish cities as well people were killed and wounded when everyone ultimately had gazey park cleared in june 2013. Back then heir to one was already putting the blame on a terrorist conspiracy with financial backing from abroad while his supporters hailed him as a hero i was stable is everyones government now. When we talk about stability for the airline government we also have to talk about the International Picture turkey is having a lot of problems right now with the United StatesUnited States is threatening sanctions against turkey can area one shot of forward to shift as he is right now towards russia buying the s. 400 Missile System and risk his relations with the west i think this question h