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in 1999 i wrote a biography of him, the last chapter of which contained four reasons why he would never be pope, a fact he's reminded me of more than once over the years. >> we believe your information is better this time around. >> yeah. i'm hopeful i'm a little more ahead of the curve this time arou around. >> now obviously the reasons for the speculation about smoke is because it's happened in the past. we've seen it, right? >> yes. >> there's a little bit of cause of concern. what do we know what can happen because of the nature of the process. >> last time in not only did it back up, and worried about the health of the cardinals and frescoes, literally speaking, smoke in white and gray, there's beenntention to make the color very clear. we've seen black billowing. today people said it looked grayp. it's pretty black to me. >> it was eventually a darker color. it's tricky to tell. it's part of the genius of this process, that this little chimney, so simple in all our