Century has been put forward what does it say about the middle east geopolitics and even metaphysics i may get joined by allister croaky is a former british and diplomat founder and director of Conflicts Forum alister welcome back to moscow every time we meet we talk about the middle east you know when donald trump and his administration put forward their deal of the century for what we thought was going to be the the Israeli Palestinian conflict to be resolved actually is something much much more comprehensive and ive read dozens and dozens of articles about it they all pretty much say the same thing but your article recent Article Israel in the middle east a civilizational and metaphysical war this is so think very different in looking at the deal this century whats your thesis in this article is simply the fact to recognize that israel this is more like any normal nationalism its not like nationalism of russian. Well as the more other nationalism precisely because it was given this was dictated by god and it was an empire of a civilizational a metaphysical empire came through the room and came to the roman empire for it came to the room and then and even the secular leaders of it like being gorean who was very secular all saw this not just as a nationalist project but the redemption of the human race is what he described i mean not the jewish people but the human race as a whole and its in and it tells the jews exactly what will be them that it will other states will submit to them they will provide their wealth honey milk will be coming to them and they will rule over this and in a sense this is what were talking about it is the Judeo Christian civilizational project for the middle east it always always was that and now it is be actualized and the American Ambassador friedman was very clear in the soft of the meetings in the east room of the white house he said listen you know this is the bible being actualized i mean live in the Old Testament holo hasnt done it only the Old Testament the jewish bible the old has and so this is what is coming and really the deal of the century was the sort of laying the foundations 1st of all for the palestinians to give tribute to this in this pax today like pax romana you know the the provinces the pa provinces of pax romana like spain became and gave their fealty. To rome and essentially its providing that for the palestinians to come in on a subordinate status than a knowledge the. New civilizational paradigm in the region that stage one then we move to later stages where its going to extend jordan probably other states are expected to submit to new most of the arab states have already whole way john will get out of that plan that we took for maybe our american viewers here this sounds like a form of manifest destiny with an element of a missing woman to it yes well thats true i mean one in one in 4 americans say the evangelicals and even jerichos take the Old Testament very literally and they see that and they see seeds us as leading to the return of the redeemer and rapture rapture says what were talking about so any move towards actualize. Prophecies about the future at the destiny and this is what men you know who if you listen to his speech he said thank you mr president for enabling us to fulfill our destiny and whats the destiny if. Its what they said empire jewry there is no they are personally but they are going to determine the destiny of so many other people in the region i mean its really interesting is that it seems in many ways israel is kind of replicating very much the mindset that the u. S. But the u. S. Has it on a global. In a global way but the israelis are looking at it in a regional and thats what i think so Many American policymakers and even jellicoe can readily understand it because its something that the u. S. Does except for on a global scale actually it meshes very closely because the american. Elite have always seen themselves as a civilizational project you see that famous columnist in the New York Times tom friedman who sort of used to say you know you measure our success not by troops on the ground. But Kentucky Fried Chicken mcdonalds hollywood it was or was a if you like a cultural project too and a few some years ago nato met and leaders of the nato forces came together and nato leaders said look. Our empire will fail if the world does not accept of vision as their vision for the future we cant sustain the hedge of money the empire without that vision and so what to do we have if this Munich Security Conference pompei was said listen American Values american ideals will prevail and that of course was influenced during my eye what happened in the cold war you believe it will and that will it will succeed because it we have the force to make it we have sanctions we have trade we have the dollar we have the military ok i mean this is a it sounds like a virtuous view of the world but its very dystopian when you think about how it will be made into reality and i think in this is the disenchantment so much of the world has with the neo liberal order of course because what its done has been to impoverish breakup destruct those states in order to prepare the way for this i mean look at the huge pressures that are being put on not only jordan but on lebanon on iraq on iran all of them part of a process to make some agreed to terms and to agree to this project i mean its its its a project its an. Empire project its only in phase one but these are the subsequent faces that people are feeling this precious and i think its having a huge impact on the middle east because ive just been back to visiting a number of states and europe everyone has depended on what they call holding the middle of the stick. Only those no middle of the stick left because he. Has polarized it to let me the ground is gone lets talk about trump because the ive been asked this so many times that trump under the trumpet ministration essentially is recognizing the annexation of the west bank up to the jordan river the goal on. The us is recognized the moving of the embassy to jerusalem trying to up my thesis is this true doesnt because theres no downside for him politically to do it for him. You know as a politician and as someone whos running for reelection because he doesnt see any downside in his base likes it so its a cost free in his mind if i think we real experts on the middle east see how costly these kind of decisions are particularly since United States has no right to give away something is that its own in the 1st place i dont think i think its. Simpler the. Trump has to do is because of course people will say to you you know the evangelicals one in 4 americans will no vote democrat maybe true but the question is will they sit on their hands and not go out and vote enough would change the electoral i mean you know trump is not going to win the popular vote he has to win it through the Electoral College so it really matters to him and he has been vulnerable and hes vulnerable he was vulnerable during that senate vote on the impeachment because a number of the right wing new. Senators already to say look you know weve been happy to go with pence because hes a soldier he salutes him he will do what hes told you know so many people underestimate that and if you look at the american cable t. V. It is never never mentioned but the bipartisan military Industrial Complex slash in interventionist slash. Global hegemony and your money project is is very very front and center for these people and i dont think it was even very subtle is that this has this project has to continue so this is what he did i mean he gave them everything the evangelicals and ever being just i mean he did it before the election in the senate or on the day of the Senate Election but obviously the been a number of standing about this so everything evangelicals. And the deep state to dos for now on israel was given if i watched that press conference when the deal this century was rolled out 1st of all there was no palestinian on the stage and there wasnt even. A modicum of any kind of suggestion of negotiations take it or leave it but essentially doesnt the deal of the century. Codified a 11 state solution of course one of the one of the implications of a 11 them yes no with well you can have such a maze existing just as the roman empire was in it provided really theyre providing they accept the authority except acknowledge the authority of rome own knowledge the oath or the Central Authority you have a moment of latitude. Depends how much but that was how the roman empire what and that would be the same thing but then our sleep flies in the face of these rules based order that the u. S. And its allies particularly in europe are are pushing all the time its its its contradictory well no not really i mean the rules based empire i mean but you know dont forget this meshes very closely as i say with a sense of you know what happened in the end of the cold war when all americas values salahis in town we legitimize i mean you know it was hollywood it was the wall street it was all of these values they had destroyed not the usa i thought but communism socialists and the left were completely destroyed. The actualized variation of israel what do you know almost give a comparative if this happened and iran was defeated in the us it would almost like produce about iran. A little bit later not only that but it will be it will be another validation and as i say and as i said nato spoke some years ago and said you know we can all survive how do we maintain how do we keep an empire i think people underestimate the importance of this cultural civilization even if you look at what the pentagon has been saying recently about china theyve been not talking about the trade war but the civilized nations all threats of china that we will start thinking the chinese way economics. Is the way to sell this new cold war with china even with russia i mean it when you when you base it on values and not on military strength for example yes i mean this is what this is what theyre using for their domestic audience and its obviously quite effective. And people respond to this how you win that civilizational war is is a different but i think thats precisely will compare meant when he values our ideals will prevail hold the veil hold ok after a short break well continue our discussion on the middle east stay with us. And were going to fulfill that promise is possible to the people. You know weve all pots the. Pretty rough. If you want to. Know. The world is driven by dream shaped. We. Welcome back to the r. T. E. Interview im reminded were discussing the middle east in the 1st part of the program youre talking about this idea. Israels messianic view for empire in the region as a reflection of how america looks at the world. But one thing kind of in bedded in this in pyar vision is that somehow particularly sunni muslims in the middle east will have to accept zionism will they do that no i dont think then coercion they dont have to accept zionism. That would be accepting the zionist project but they have to accept the authority. Of the. Project. Just as i said you know people have to spain and if we want to accept all of. Even if they did their own thing to a certain extent they have to but it really in some ways were almost i mean it needs to be sort of consolidated but most of the arab states some of the gulf states who are already you know. The head human is like of the vision of the civilization they get out of it what do they get out of it is that they hope theyre going to get business and they going to have a front door to washington and be accepted. But the great difficulty in this whole project is that in order to bring it into being its been framed in really binary terms either you know the palestinians either you do it or youre finished and the same for lebanon the same for Jordan Jordan all are being put in this binary position and the middle ground has been erased completely and gone. And these pressures are increasing and this is where it may not work because in the sense the whole of the middle east needs to hold. By the middle and once you take all of that away then and make it so polarized and put the pressures on which are taking place right across iraq iran syria then what is the choice they can only escalate back against the United States doesnt this i was going to say interact with that actually very directly empower iran because iran is the alternative. This is iran is if you call it a victor is the only effective from the deal as i was reading. Always wins by almost doing nothing at all it is react it watches everybody else in the region screw everything up over and over and over again no learning curve and is a result the guy in this. Ends up being the winner it happens its particularly in this century thats what. Thats a pattern thats whats happening in equally whats happening is the old traditional weapon is coming out which is sectarianism from the gulf states who are demonizing iran on social media in iraq and in syria and everywhere else in order to try to keep that position but it is putting huge pressure not only on those states in the both but also gulf states because the gulf states hold the middle of the stick and thats what theyve done always and if they dont cotton to that and specially now when the price of oil is going down and may go down further depending on what happens in china but at 40 dollars 45 dollars a barrel which it may be if china doesnt get back to work very soon i mean the gulf states are really going to be there already in recession dubai abu dhabi and others i mean the pressures are intense some of them may collapse from it but others may have no choice but to escalate the binary process forces as coalition so i expect later to see or an april sometime around that well see quite a big collation of tensions between iran and the all of them some syria iran and also because now there is a project to remove america from the region thats what i was getting in read my mind exactly and it is the that is the deal of the century a way to cement forever american presence in the middle east. Its meant to cement israels position bad by the unite as as the carrier of what americans now call themselves today of christianity i mean its not just the Old Testament not just the break tradition but its now carries the christian called notation the hyphen to it into the middle east but i dont know i think that it may end up paradoxically. By the americans losing their footprint and losing their position in the middle east i think its just my own personal belief but i think america will not be in iraq in any meaningful way by the end of the cea nor in syria in any meaningful way i dont think its going to be sustainable the pressures are already beginning from afghanistan right through. This region attacks it hasnt started yet because the iraq has a still talking to the americans and the americans seem ready to at least leave in part from iraq so without leave israel is virtually the sole sarah get proxy for the United States in the middle east is this part of the deal of the century if the u. S. Footprint does shrink it will have its proxy i guess you could throw in the saudis as well where you would have that that that axis right there the tell of the axis with it would that be play it presumes that you actually undermined a weakened or destroyed a look principled opposition to this project and thats whats going on well in a sense you know weve all heard the term arab street real or imagined but were talking about elite decisions being made and thats always the case in the middle east but theres a there is discontent we have a lot. Of social unrest all across the region all across world. Primarily economic and its a great deal of time its due to poor governance and theres a certain point where people do look its going on in lebanon. A very volatile place. Some point you have to realize you know the Civil Society the lower levels of society because were always looking at these Decision Makers what is the sense of humor is down to my sons. Having. Being in the is that everybody says that reform is necessary everyone agrees that corruption must be finished and no one thinks its going to happen or is even already possible because its always broke theres always in the middle east there was if one person wants to move the elite son talk about it this way then there is someone whose interests are affected that way and i dont think all of these states its going to be easy to have reform i dont think reform i dont think they can reform themselves as things stand so i expect these protests will get worse and increase particularly easy Economic Situation of the middle east is is is really i mean much of europe is already in something of a recession. And its parts of the middle east are in deep recession and this is going to have big popular. Populist if you like impact and im not sure all that all of these streets will survive the spirit because they contra form i dont think we will see that sort of because you know in lebanon the sectarian interest in jordan there is difference is this the gulf interests and all sorts of different interests and none of them really capable the elites in the middle east i dont think any of them are really capable of making the reform look at the gulf states they say they need reform to i dont see that were going to see theres that level of inertia that is slow you do have these states here that spend lavishly on arms and we all know why didnt they keep their own populations in our control its not our National Defense i want to go back to the palestinian question here because you know its weve all long known i mean from slow to the present is that israel has a choice. Democracy or a zionist regime in which palestinians are 2nd class citizen and all used the. Word there for both word essentially apartheid i mean that is something that theyre willing to live with because they get some theyre shielded by the United States around the world and its allies i mean again you know when i look at that stage when the deal of the century was rolled out and i wasnt the only one that noticed that there was no one there and this is the origins of this trying to resolve this this co