Hello and welcome to the program. Im how much in room president , richard, ty, theyre the ones return to power. Inter key means the crucial player in the geo political arenas of europe and the middle east remains in place for another 5 years. Analyst of describe president are the ones Foreign Policy is representing both continuity and change. A flexible approach driven by pragmatism can at times, place them in a unique position to key it has made a 2nd largest military. It is also the only member of the Defense Alliance that enjoys meaningful relations with russia. There dont want help broke or a deal between moscow and key to allow the shipment of grain from occupied ukrainian ports of hurting and global food crisis. Well be discussing how to key sees the world and how the world to cease or key with our guess and a few moments. But 1st this report from chevron soak. Turkey is pro active Foreign Policy has been hallmark is present, friendship type air to ones time in the office. The relations with the west have been rocky since and attempted to in 2016 or 2 on the leaves. His western partners fails to support him, prompting him to take a more independent path, displaced, established alliances such as the countries membership of nice. Oh, going to take this set of going to for the next 5 years, you promise to work with all our strength should have to protect the glory and honor of the 2 key to increase its reputation around the world. We guarantee the protection of our states on the integrity of our homeland and unconditional solver until foundation nato allies are hoping and grow will give the green light to sweetens bid to join the Defense Alliance before summers in july. Everyone has to late approving the application for months, no straining, relations with the us and nato allies. Theres tension to with the us over turkey is cordial relations with russia. But everyone has also supplied keith with weapons. Despite the objections for moscow, the presidency is keeping channels open with putin as vital use to media in the war in ukraine. A closer to home or one has promised to continue military involvement in syria, lots of vitamins because without them, the observers will find a more determinant, braver, more active in more compassionate to key, which fights against terrorist organizations more decisively, both inside and outside of sports. Theres a relentlessly pragmatic approach to Foreign Policy, has sometimes man to shifting alliances last year to key a reset relations with many of its regional foes, including study arabia, the united arab emirates, egypt, and armenia. And some arab nations reconciled with syria. Its likely and 2 or 2 will speed up the normalization of relations with its southern neighbour shavone silk for inside story. The. All right, for more on all of this, lets bring in our guests and moscow is dimitri bondage, political analyst at the civil now and International Media group based in the russian capital. And its tumble, is it said to them or out associate professor at basic university. She specializes in the political economy of islam and in brussels is stephen erlanger. Steve is chief Diplomatic Correspondent in europe for the New York Times a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. So that, let me start with you today. Now that present everyone has been re elected, should we expect continuity as well as change when it comes to, to kids born policy as well. Yes, i do expect to continue to large extent. After all, its the same leader, the same party and add on has been branding themselves, enter key as an actor. You can talk to the, the west and east, a natal member on the one hand, but can talk to put in on the other hand. Is role as a mediator during the rush. Are you creating war . And the degree, the foundation of the grain quite door agreement, for instance, was a Major International accomplishment for ad one. And he presented to a such in domestic politics. And he was rewarded by his voters like selling drones to praying, buying natural gas from russia and making both sides, except that it was a pin line tools and add one emphasized that he had those skills. So i do expect our dawn to continue presenting himself as an independent world leader promoting turkish interest. Not anyone elses and highlight to refusal as a country that has a Strong Defense industry, an independent international position. These are the major will powers basic, a rational actor, russian outlooking, and maximizing focus interest rather than an ideology or any of old powers. Say the fact that the level of trouble show low he had served this foreign minister since 2014 president , 31 just named tucker and feed on his intelligence chief as the new foreign minister. What does that mean and all this . Well, how courtesy done is like you say, she former chief intelligence, she is known to be a rational actor, a pro western you could say, but also pro active, not a passive partner of the west peaceful relations with the westwood polluting trick. His interest were actively. He has to be big about promoting security along the Syrian Border. So we may expect his appointment as ad ones commitment to his brother new policy in syria, which promotes security along the Syrian Border and allow some of just, you know, for g is to go back. Rather than criticizing a search domestic policy or promoting political change in syria, so peace or dialogue with syria establish Border Security along the Syrian Border and fight terrorism. Thats what hawkins done has been representing steven. Obviously, we cant have this conversation without addressing nato early on in the discussion. Just a short while ago, nato secretary general and stilton bird called onto her key to drop its opposition to swedish succession to nato. I want to ask you about that because turkey approved finland succession to know in march, but where things stand right now when it comes to granting approval to sweden to joint as well. A lot of it is in mister edwins head. The hope is in washington and brussels elsewhere circulated in stockholm, but having been re elected by a good margin, having shown his nationalist credentials. Having, i think with justice able to say that the sweep of this new Anti Terrorism law, which went into effect june 1st, is in large part due to his pressure on sweden to crack down on curtis terrorism and others. Forms that mr. Antoine will decide its enough and will allow sweet and i mean, thats my view. I may be wrong again, im not inside his head. But i do think, given his economic troubles, which are severe he, he needs to come some things down elsewhere. And i, i suspect commending ties a bit with nato will help whether it happens before the villainy a summit, which is like july, 10th or so or, or if it comes afterwards. Im not sure. I mean, or the 1 may want to negotiate right up to the last minute, even inside the dont the us itself. But i think turkey does want this f sixteens from the United States and updated kips, and the American Congress has made a pretty clear that swedish approval on sweden. So nato is kind of a quid pro quote for them. Steven. Um, more longer term, i want to get your view point on what president theyre the ones re election means for nato and also for western geo Political Goals because there are analysts out there that believe that area. One is a bit of a threat to cohesion. Amongst the natal members i dont think its a problem inside nato, especially to be honest, because nato is the military alliance. It doesnt really concern itself much with issues of rule of law and press freedom then and, and those things for which are the one is quite rightly criticized. The turkey plays a crucial role. As is demerell said very, very accurately controlling the black. See being a balance or between russia and, and even ukraine. And i wouldnt be surprised if we finally get to some kind of piece talks there that mr. Or the one will be one of the mediators. He, after all, did host early piece thoughts, strand, russia and ukraine, that didnt go very well. Now with greece. I mean, he, he made a lot of noise during the campaign about greece, but in fact, i think, again, given his economic issues, i think hes not looking for more trouble inside, inside nato. Thats again, i may be wrong, but thats my sense of what is going to happen is dimitri, the relationship between turkey and russia is a complicated one. We know that a ticket has been performing this balancing act when it comes to russia and ukraine. So key it provides weapons to ukraine, but it also has been deepening its Economic Cooperation with russia. How does president Vladimir Putin view the re election of president air to want . And what was the reaction in the Russian Media . And the amount of the Expert Community was pretty positive, of russia was very cautious not to give any pretext to suspected or enrollment in the election. So, you know, these are just ations but flying from that position. But i think its a absolutely annoying sense that go, you know, the drugs are voting for, are they going because they want to, there is no way he rush. I can force them to vote for him and you are right. The relationship has been there wont get one. Let me remind you that in 2015, the dog gets out. Forces have shut down the russian. Blame uh, near the Syrian Border. But uh right now looks like uh the most racial. No. A person in the natal, i wrote you clear, you know, the nato in the west. Thats a large, i suppose, to be supporters of compromise, you know, simple dose of pluralism and democracy. But unfortunately, it is mr. Gone, who shows flexibility, who shows ability to compromise. Look with syria. Aragon is a radio for peace. He uh, there are rumors that he may need uh, i missed uh, missed all sides and have some sort of compromise with him. After all these years of war. We can say to both the west keeps saying, awesome mazda go. Uh, and the west is, uh, you know, preventing syria uh, from having normal economic stars with all the contents of the world when he needs it badly, you know, off to the civil war. No rush that supports this deal with mr. Don to compromise. As for his team, i would say that this is a very much like garage. In fact, mister only gone has inside seemed steam, some liberal pro western politicians. So i mean, look at the biography over. Im the ive tried to do that or, you know, then, you mean just throw different and he walked into the nato contingent in boston. Yeah. You know what . He was with the nato commander nathan. It the same. Going to decide about hong kong fee done. Yes. Hes a former intelligence chief, but before that, he wasnt that why hes not a straight and embassy into again, he walked a with several regions institutions. So i think that was the media when it portrays uh, put in that are gone as isolate issues. Do you know why just the, you ration that one predictable and who dont want to have anything in the quote one with the west. This is simply not true. These people, i mean, put in until recently. I dont even know. They were open to context with the west, it was the west that was the region and rejected in any compromise. And basically immediately the things through the terrible state where we see them. Now in the me 30 standing in between roxanne, ukraine, lead me to let me ask you this, do you expect that your key will continue to play a leading diplomatic role between russia and ukraine . Can we expect more shuttle diplomacy from president air to one Going Forward . So i hope so because the me started going, it looks like the likeliest candidate for these kind of role. He rightly said that there are a weapons being supplied from to a kid to ukraine, but these are private company is doing that by rex dollars. A private company of course. Well, very sad about the fact that the drug is government did not prevent these private companies from doing that. But this is of course, a far cry for all what, for example, greece, also a bike. Yeah. The way you know that the governments provide a provide weapons to that to that you great. Yeah. Not me. So are you think me started got it looks like a very likely kind of that for some kind of remediation role. And let me remind you that last year in march, in the, in the east unable russia and ukraine live very close to, to do some kind of a deal. It was some, what is your son who came to the front who display . Thats as it ask you to fight and deal with the victory will be great and it was him cool. Basically seem to be uh, you know, destroying the deal. Well, the board is johnson, of course, in general, the new natal lines of ukrainian victory, east sports one. We must bush for it. That was very destructive. But that was not me. Start the gospel, you can see the image and to facilitate the deal between life and your brain. So the, i want to talk more specifically right now about your keys relationship with the us, which has been fraught. Its been tense for a while. Um us president ial biden said just a few days ago that he had spoken with president air, the one in a call and the president air. The one had repeated ok, or a desire to buy at 16 fighter jets from the us. Mr. Biden reportedly told mr. Err, dwanda, washington, once encore, it to drop, its objection to sweden joining nato. So i want to ask you, is this what all this is going to hinge upon Going Forward . Yes or no, i mean, um, but my turkey is relations which United States went through a downturn after during spring, particularly regarding erie and politics are doing particularly felt let down by uh, by the usa is a policies in syria. And ever since youve seen some of the nation between turkey and us, but then i still are gone, has never been actively promoting an anti rest center agenda. And now we talk confidence, appointment as minister of foreign affairs. I think we will see a more professional in between the west and target, particularly the you and your site. Enter a key. How come to down as being known for his prove a certain policies like i mentioned before, the quite to rational after so. So thats what i expect to see between your site and turkey. Um, close relationships, but still i go on will try to defend um, an independent position as even as are you reacting there to what say that was saying im going to let you jump in. But i also want to ask you 1st about this very tricky. A balancing act that present air to one is going to have to try and navigate when it comes to turkey is relationship with syria Going Forward. Specifically, because syria has now been reinstated, as a member to the arab league. So is that going to meet added pressure on mr. Air to want to normalize relations with syria . Well, i think he did, will. I dont forget, even in the campaign, one of the opposition charges against or the one was that he has too many refugees. Now, from islamic solidarity, mr. Or the one welcome more than 4000000 syrian refugee use. And i think he would like to do a deal with mr. Asa to send a big chunk of them back. Its become unpopular inside turkey. Dont forget turkey actually occupied as a chunk of northern serious. So i think 31 may want to try to do a deal with us about the border. I mean, clearly what used or the one is concentrating on is the British Workers Party and it, syrian of affiliates a thats what worries them, thats what drives and so i think, you know, its, hell, hell be pushed to deal with mr. Assad, but who he tried to, we wanted to over throw, dont forget before, but i think in the end its probably good for mr or the one because the things he wants out of syria, mr. All sudden might be able to get him. Dimitri. Um, how beneficial to russia is its financial relationship with turkey and also does president put and expect president air to want to turn away from the west more Going Forward to how well, i mean, we dont want all the current is to turn away from a new one and go to the west. We want to cooperate with everyone. Unfortunately, their relations with the west uh, were driven into a dad and i believe not by russia by the other side. And i think that example of mr. Dunn is a very good one. I mean, the west may accuse him of not been consequential, not trying to. Uh, you know, almost mr. Ross up until the 2nd coming. But this is a big question. What is my moral, you know, to be considered grand show and to continue to brush a country that went through a civil war. But economic sanctions and by all sorts of pressure, or to make peace and to excuse yourself for certain mistakes that you made. I mean uh after that unexcused give us that would be for a rush for shooting down the plane in 2015 or we accept that. Uh, these x, do you know wait except thats a he is um. Yep. All legit. So uh, i think uh what puts you on expects from octagon is pragmatism. Uh, turkey is a silver in the country. It needs the rocks and guess it needs, uh, economic preparation with ross and all the contracts, all the former soviet union and turkey is running over the few countries that can sustain west and pressure the west is now absolutely. Uh, you know, a force, you know, the congress due to a stop or Economic Cooperation with russia to impose imposing the so the so called the so called secondary sanctions on them. A tricky is wrong with the fuel contest that can resist this pressure. And i think were getting cold so that that is on wouldnt be able to resist it. But there are no illusions in russia where i understand that turkey and this president , 1st of all, after their own interest, thats normal, what not the worst, but im not going to say those why not with us are against us. Those who are not against us, the role our partners, including the gun, including judge steven it looked like you want to jump in. Go ahead and just simply to say that russia is isolated from and natos support for ukraines as a function of russias invasion of a sovereign country. Lets not forget that. And to try to pretend that or the wall and then mr. Put in those positions are the same or is frankly a little disingenuous. Put it, put it like that mr. Ad one is very good. Thats defining what he thinks is the Turkish National interest, which is fine. And hes done it pretty well, but that includes being part of a nato alliance. And if he is dependent on russia, which he is for gas for hard currency, for economic ties, and dont forget turkey has not joined western sanctions against russia. This is part of being an ally with a lot of interest spots to pretend that somehow 3rd one is being isolated. The way mister pool is being isolated. Again, i would just say is disingenuous. Dimitry. I see you raising your hand. I know you want to make a point, i would let you would please keep in mind we are running out of time and i do want to get that question into said as well. Okay, very short. This is a very strong we, i think steven me, we know each other since 1991 when we briefly met that multiple. So she knows the long story before a russia invaded through great into 1022. But also steven himself has just said that the ticket book supplies a chunk goal for syrian territory. Syria is a sovereign country. And let me remind you of the United States. Okie supplies, some very important chunk of syrian territory with a lot of oil that remember column is the trump said i was the oil. So i think the United States is of the last country that can accuse rochelle, brake and international said, let me ask you about the economy because president air the one named mmh, whom check as the treasury and finance minister in his new cabinet. I assume shak had been highly regarded by investors when he served previously as the economy chief. I want to ask you about if this appointment in particular marks of departure from these years of an orthodox economic policies under mister are the one. And also will this be a move that is welcomed by International Investors as well . Sure, because no, i mean he proves himself previously entered because of politics. He has been impressed, successful, but he represents, as he mentioned orthodox economic policies. What i do on has been quite insistent insisting on these low interest. Unorthodox policies are done, has been claiming that he could fight inflation, which no interest going against all uh, established economic principles. So many people wonder whether she said coming back means doing is actually finally willing to return to orthodox economic policies. The pressure i shall check to do his magic, but the, you know, remain committed to on to docs, policies. Well, on his victory speech, i dont just recently emphasized that he has no clue of deviating from his on orthodox policies, but then again pointing shake will make some people question. Well, maybe if there will be some deviations. And depending on, well, the extent of kids deviation, we may expect outcomes if there will be some i know, raising interest. Many people dell that, that were range major consequences because the, if you want to return to orthodox economic policies, we need to major inc. Interest rates, but just so people say even if there will be modest increase interest rates, that coupled with 26 high the taishan can may be attract for an investment and can create a positive wipe that can stimulate economic normalization. Again, instead of just very quickly, we have one minute left where does air to ones relationship with air of countries and more specifically with the wider middle east go from here as well. During the art of spring, we so took this form policy drifting away from traditional pro western past or to or new or to in this direction, trying to influence middle east politics, assuming leadership off and loves the middle east all the time. I going to assemble down one because of probably most syrian refugees, 2nd feeling betrayed by the usa and 3rd, economic difficulty. Ready as all of these pushed are the one towards a more horrible, rational line b, c, are doing, trying to start. So i look again in with syria in libya or saudi arabia and to you i of embrace on the other hand. So a particularly regarding goals, countries, all the countries, i guess you could say conflicts are less important now then add on the need of um, short term funding. All right, well we have run out of time, so were going to have to leave the conversation there. Thank you so much to all of our guest dmitri by which said at dinner up and stephen earlier. Thank you too for watching. You can see the program again any time by visiting our website down to 0. Com. And for further discussion, go to our facebook page, thats facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. You can also join the conversation on twitter. Handle is at a j inside story for me and how much improvement a whole team here, bye for now, the, the the, the with, along with, with neither side, willing to negotiate because the ukraine more becoming a forever war is americas global leadership, increasingly fragile. What will us politics look like . As we had said, the president ial election of 2024 critical could us pull that to the boston line. June 1967, 6 days the re drew the map of them. At least 2 dark colored aircraft appeared from a distance just as we were focusing on. They dropped the bombs on the run out as they were exposed the events leading to the window and its consequences. Which i still felt today. To help me in this was because that is such of the of the stuff is live, the war in june on our address era is humbling and frightening. To witness the ever changing moods of mother nature. It was like heavier riverhead, the current was so strong to risk us because of rachel, is the worst flooding scene here. In about a century. Thousands of acres of Vineyards Rose investable farms, now submerge the damage likely to affect next years harvest as well. 6 months of to range of rain fell in. Thats fine. Im just 36 hours before that. The concern here was gross and destroyed was so dry that went back to rancho down for came it couldnt absorb the a. Carrie, its on spring de la, the top stories on all does their process Defense Ministry says a major ukrainian defense. It has been pushed back. Its reported to have happened along the front line in southern done yet. And history has released these pictures of the battle. It says 250. 00 ukrainian soldiers and thousands of on the vehicles were destroyed. Theres been no comment from teeth and the reports have not been independently verified