vimarsana.com

North easterly wind so temperatures around 15 degrees and even the highest temperatures in the west, 23 or 2a degrees in the warmest places. On wednesday, predominantly dry again, probably less of that north sea cloud and what little we have a good link in one or 2a degrees in the warmest places. On wednesday, predominantly dry again, probably less of that north sea cloud and what little we have good link in one of two areas of the east coast but otherwise more sunshine so more of us probably seeing a climb into the low to mid 20s in the warmest areas. Beyond that, the fine and dry and settled run continues through the rest of the week but heading into the weekend, the Humidity Levels start to rise, as to the temperatures with highs in the Mid To High 20s but we are likely to see them heavy showers and thunderstorms working in which will bring some areas rain and of course gardeners might want that because it has been very dry for the last few weeks. Thanks, chris. And thats bbc news at ten on monday the 5th ofjune. Theres more analysis of the days main stories on newsnight with victoria derbyshire, which is just getting under way on bbc two. She is standing by. If we look at those People Standing by on bbc one, my colleagues in the nations and regions with the news where you are but from all of us here, thank you for watching good night. As ukraine attacks occupying Russian Forces, what tactics will it use to recapture more of its territory . Ukraine say its forces are shifting to offensive actions. Moscow says things are going badly for kyiv. Our diplomatic editor mark urban is here to cut through the spin. Ukraines Counter Offensive is many things. Some have started and some are still to come. Also tonight labours purge of the left appears to be continuing. Well talk to the man banned from standing for the north east mayoralty and a Labour Commentator who thinks the party has made the correct decision. Plus the imf� s number two Gita Gopinath tells newsnight it has no reason to change its forecast that brexit is hurting the uk economy. I think, for a fact, investment has been weaker since 2016. Labour market flexibility has come down, and the intensity of trade of the uk with the eu has come down, so all of these factors, you know, are in line with a weakening economy. The full interview coming up. And appearing at the high court tomorrow, the stakes for prince harry in his Phone Hacking case couldnt be higher. How will he show that stories written in the press about him really did come from Phone Hacking . Good evening. There have been signs ukraines Counter Offensive has been under way for weeks, but today there were significant developments, although its very difficult to get a picture of what is happening on the ground. News came from the Russian Defence ministry, who claimed it had thwarted a major ukrainian attack in donetsk in the east of ukraine. Video of what russia says is the battle shows military vehicles under heavy fire in fields. Russia claims it killed 300 troops and destroyed 16 tanks. Ukraines Deputy Defence minister said their forces are shifting to offensive actions in some areas. He described the eastern city of bakhmut as the epicentre of hostilities. But is that really the Counter Offensive or simply some probing or Reconnaissance Missions by kyiv� s military . Heres mark. A russian tank, struck and then moments later, as the ammunition inside takes fire, exploding. Another attack from a couple of days ago destroys a russian surface to air missile system. But losses are being felt on both sides as the battle intensifies. This Russian Defence ministry material shows Ukrainian Western supplied Armour Underfire and shows Ukrainian Western supplied armour under fire and taking shows Ukrainian Western supplied Armour Underfire and taking hits. It has been geo located to the southern donbas. While attribution and interpretation can be debated, it is evident that after months of stasis, the battle is intensifying. Land action has started. For an offensive now that has been in preparation now for nine months. As to what is riding on it, well, the first thing is that it is simply not going to be big enough to throw every russian out of ukraine, so we should be looking for it to achieve sufficient battlefield success to show the war can be won by ukraine, supported by the west. There have been reports of fighting in several key places. The ukrainian incursion into russia in the Belgorod Region continues, embarrassingly for the kremlin, and russian sources are reporting some gains north of back moot and to the west of belgorod two. This last one is intriguing to the west of ten micro too. This last one is intriguing, because it could lead to cutting the land to but it is too early to be sure. Ukraine will see where it makes progress and will look to reinforce that, for example, the advance near back moot, or start a new axis, Towards Crimea from curse on, or more audaciously of all, push around through belgorod to get behind and cut off Russian Forces in donbas. Ukraines Ministry Of Defence has so far been taking a Careless Talk Costs Lives Type of line, and even accepting that the ground phase of this offensive has started, but it could take time before the ukrainians find their success to exploit. In the meantime, they will keep up the pressure for more western supplies. Keep up the pressure for more western supplies. There will be never enough western supplies. There will be never enough of western supplies. There will be never enough of weapons. Never enough of weapons. When you go in the counteroffensive, one thing is to have enough of weapons to begin it, but another thing is to ensure sustainability of supplies in order to be able to continue as long as it is needed. Rather surreally, given the incursion at belgorod, President Putin has been filmed Talking Transport Policy today with officials. Hackers, meanwhile, cut into broadcasts in parts of western russia with a deep fake putin announcing martial law. So the offensive will push around 40,000 troops in a dozen brigades, carefully held back by the ukrainians, into weak points in the russian line. The west is feeding ukraine intelligence about where to direct its attacks, and has equipped nine of those reserve brigades. But even so, many in whitehall believe thats not enough to guarantee ukrainian success. Throughout recent months, russia has exploited its superiority in artillery, and with Ukrainian Forces now concentrating and coming into the open moor, they would be easier to target and subject to heavier casualties. So would be easier to target and subject to heavier casualties. 543i subject to heavier casualties. So i think we should subject to heavier casualties. Sr i think we should assume subject to heavier casualties. 5;r i think we should assume the subject to heavier casualties. 55 i think we should assume the russians will still be there at the end of this counteroffensive. The russians have Something Like between 200,000 300,000 have Something Like between 200,000 300,000 soldiers in ukraine and another 200,000 supporting the war in russia. Ukraine says it has constructed an offensive force of about nine brigades. That can be more than about 50,000 people, and probably fewer than that, and it has another 200,000 at least in the front line. That cant be more than about 50,000. But they are mostly holding the front line. Those odds mean it cant throw the russians out in a well sweep this summer. It russians out in a well sweep this summer. ,. ,. , summer. It is a close range struggling summer. It is a close range struggling match summer. It is a close range struggling match now, summer. It is a close range struggling match now, like| summer. It is a close range struggling match now, like these ukrainians attacking russian positions in the tree line a couple of days ago. As for the outcome, it could be weeks before that is clear. Marks here. Is this it, then . Yes, it is the short answer. The counteroffensive had many levels, and we have seen many there were some of them in recent weeks. Strikes into russia against ammunition stores, petrol stores, that kind of thing, to prepare the ground. So call shaping operations, and even those Drone Attacks in moscow and other places deep in russia and the belgorod actions to unbalance the russians, make them worry about where things are coming, whether their government can keep them safe. But what we have been waiting for is the movement of those brigades, and we have seen evidence today. Some of the Video Material we have seen coming out of russia, which has been checked and geo located, shows distinctive equipment that western countries have supplied. In one case, to one brigade alone, the 37th marine brigade, which was one of those held back, and it is in that vuhledar area, apparently making progress. So they are moving and committing their reserves. The question is, where will they have success, and where will they have success, and where will they have success, and where will they push the follow on forces to exploit any success . And will they push the followon forces to exploit any success . To exploit any success . And what kind of condition to exploit any success . And what kind of condition are to exploit any success . And what kind of condition are russian to exploit any success . And what i kind of condition are Russian Troops in . It kind of condition are Russian Troops in . ,. ,. , in . It is one of the huge Imponderables In . It is one of the huge imponderables here. In . It is one of the huge| imponderables here. We in . It is one of the huge imponderables here. We see in . It is one of the huge imponderables here. We see evidence of remarkable ill preparedness, rows between the Mercenary Group and the other soldiers surrendering in wretched state. But on the other hand, we also see evidence that the russians have got very good and slick with some of the queueing of error artillery, through drones and electronic warfare, that a lot of their Military Machine is still performing quite well. So which russian army is going to reveal itself, the chaotic, stretched, hacked off one that we have seen in recent months, or the one that can still hold it together, particularly when faced with a challenge like that . It is incredibly hard to know that . It is incredibly hard to know that definitively, but undoubtedly, the Ukrainian Army has got a tough fight on its hands. Thank you very much, mark. Lets talk now to yuri sak, whos in kyiv and an adviser to ukraines defence minister, Evelyn Farkas in washington dc, who served as Deputy Assistant secretary for defence under president obama, and mark galeotti, director of mayak intelligence and author of 25 books on russia, including the latest, putins wars from chechnya to ukraine. Thank you very much forjoining us this evening. First of all, yirk sak, there have been months of training and rearmament, all coming together now. How much is riding on this for ukraine . Yuri sak. Good evening. Well, we understand very well that every day counts for ukraine. We understand how our allies look at the way they have been supporting ukraine for the last couple of months, and we understand that Everyone Wants to see that supporting action, because we have been saying to our partners that our Major Military objective is to liberate our lands, and we have been preparing for the next Military Operations for quite some time now. There have been different factors at play, weather conditions, the amount of Military Support we received, and for the last couple of weeks, we have begun, as you have mentioned in your earlier report, shaping operations, probing operations, and things are beginning to move on the front lines. We have conducted quite successful operations today in and around bakhmut and other parts of the front line. At one thing we must stress one more time is that the offensive, or counteroffensive, is not an event whereby all Ukrainian Tanks and troops will be gathered in one place and then, at the start of a signal, a gun will go, charging towards the enemys defence lines. So it is a series of complex Military Operations of different scale. But the most important thing is to stress that the objective remains unchanged. We need to liberate our land from these terrorists and we need to bring them to account. Evelyn farkas, what is your expectation for this counteroffensive . ~. ,. , counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that writ counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that writ large, counteroffensive . Well, victoria, i do think that writ large, the do think that writ large, the counteroffensive will be successful, because counteroffensive will be successful, because the ukrainians do have many things because the ukrainians do have many things on because the ukrainians do have many things on their side. They have the equipment, things on their side. They have the equipment, the training, the intelligence. Sol equipment, the training, the intelligence. So i do believe that they will intelligence. So i do believe that they will be able to punch through they will be able to punch through the russian lines somewhere. They will also the russian lines somewhere. They will also probably employ the element of surprise, and the Question Element of surprise, and the question will be whether they can maintain question will be whether they can maintain the momentum. I think that your correspondent was spot on when he talked your correspondent was spot on when he talked about the need for follow on logistics. You know, it is notiust follow on logistics. You know, it is not just what you have in the first wave, not just what you have in the first wave. But not just what you have in the first wave, but can you keep going, can you keep wave, but can you keep going, can you keep sustaining and holding the russians you keep sustaining and holding the russians at bay . And they also want to make russians at bay . And they also want to make sure that they can manoeuvre around to make sure that they can manoeuvre around the to make sure that they can manoeuvre around the russians, because of their around the russians, because of their small around the russians, because of their small relative size of their force their small relative size of their force. A ~ their small relative size of their force. ~. ,. ,. ,. , ~ force. Mark galeotti, our own mark ave us force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight into force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight into the force. Mark galeotti, our own mark gave us some insight into the statej gave us some insight into the state of the russian military. What is your insight as to how stretched they are, or otherwise . Your insight as to how stretched they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing is they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing is that they are, or otherwise . Yes, the interesting thing is that on they are, or otherwise . Yes, the | interesting thing is that on paper, one would interesting thing is that on paper, one would think interesting thing is that on paper, one would think that interesting thing is that on paper, one would think that they interesting thing is that on paper, one would think that they do one would think that they do actually one would think that they do actually have one would think that they do actually have enough one would think that they do actually have enough troops| one would think that they do. Actually have enough troops to one would think that they do actually have enough troops to be able to actually have enough troops to be able to hold actually have enough troops to be able to hold their actually have enough troops to be able to hold their defensive actually have enough troops to be able to hold their defensive lines, which able to hold their defensive lines, which in able to hold their defensive lines, which in some able to hold their defensive lines, which in some places able to hold their defensive lines, which in some places are able to hold their defensive lines, i which in some places are especially formidable which in some places are especially formidable. But which in some places are especially formidable. But it which in some places are especially formidable. But it is which in some places are especially formidable. But it is the which in some places are especially formidable. But it is the quality formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as mark formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as mark urban formidable. But it is the quality. And morale, as mark urban said, formidable. But it is the quality and morale, as mark urban said, that are the and morale, as mark urban said, that are the true and morale, as mark urban said, that are the true imponderables. And morale, as mark urban said, that are the true imponderables. We and morale, as mark urban said, thatj are the true imponderables. We know that the are the true imponderables. We know that the effective are the true imponderables. We know that the effective russian are the true imponderables. We know that the effective Russian Forces that the effective Russian Forces such as that the effective Russian Forces such as the that the effective Russian Forces such as the paratroopers do that the effective Russian Forcesl such as the paratroopers do tend that the effective Russian Forces. Such as the paratroopers do tend to be sort such as the paratroopers do tend to be sort of such as the paratroopers do tend to be sort of rushed such as the paratroopers do tend to be sort of rushed around such as the paratroopers do tend to be sort of rushed around like such as the paratroopers do tend to be sort of rushed around like fire i be sort of rushed around like fire brigade be sort of rushed around like fire brigade forces. Be sort of rushed around like fire brigade forces. The be sort of rushed around like fire brigade forces. The point be sort of rushed around like fire brigade forces. The point is, be sort of rushed around like fire i brigade forces. The point is, from the ukrainian brigade forces. The point is, from the ukrainian Point Brigade forces. The point is, from the ukrainian point of brigade forces. The point is, from the ukrainian Point Of View, brigade forces. The point is, from the ukrainian Point Of View, theyl the ukrainian Point Of View, they will want the ukrainian Point Of View, they will want to the ukrainian Point Of View, they will want to pin the ukrainian Point Of View, they will want to pin these the ukrainian Point Of View, they will want to pin these so the ukrainian Point Of View, they will want to pin these so that. The ukrainian Point Of View, they. Will want to pin these so that then they can will want to pin these so that then they can try will want to pin these so that then they can try to will want to pin these so that then they can try to batter will want to pin these so that then they can try to batter away will want to pin these so that then they can try to batter away at will want to pin these so that then they can try to batter away at the i they can try to batter away at the forces they can try to batter away at the forces of they can try to batter away at the forces of deeply they can try to batter away at the forces of deeply disgruntled, forces of deeply disgruntled, undertrained forces of deeply disgruntled, undertrained and forces of deeply disgruntled, i undertrained and Demoralised Mobilise Undertrained and demoralised mobilise reservists. Undertrained and demoralised mobilise reservists. So undertrained and demoralised mobilise reservists. So again, J Undertrained and demoralised mobilise reservists. So again, this isjust mobilise reservists. So again, this isjust one mobilise reservists. So again, this isjust one more mobilise reservists. So again, this isjust one more of mobilise reservists. So again, this isjust one more of the isjust one more of the complexities. Isjust one more of the complexities. It isjust one more of the complexities. It is isjust one more of the complexities. It is noti isjust one more of the. Complexities. It is notjust isjust one more of the complexities. It is notjust a straightforward complexities. It is notjust a straightforward soldier complexities. It is notjust a. Straightforward soldier against soldier~ straightforward soldier against soldier~ it straightforward soldier against soldier. It is straightforward soldier against soldier. It is what straightforward soldier against soldier. It is what kind straightforward soldier against soldier. It is what kind of straightforward soldier against. Soldier. It is what kind of soldier you are soldier. It is what kind of soldier you are able soldier. It is what kind of soldier you are able to soldier. It is what kind of soldier you are able to target. Soldier. It is what kind of soldier you are able to target. And soldier. It is what kind of soldier you are able to target. And so i soldier. It is what kind of soldier. You are able to target. And so far, though you are able to target. And so far, though the you are able to target. And so far, though the ukrainians you are able to target. And so far, though the ukrainians have though the ukrainians have demonstrated though the ukrainians have demonstrated quite though the ukrainians have demonstrated quite an though the ukrainians have demonstrated quite an impressive capacity demonstrated quite an impressive capacity to demonstrated quite an impressive capacity to outthink demonstrated quite an impressive capacity to outthink the demonstrated quite an impressive capacity to outthink the russians, | capacity to outthink the russians, we ought capacity to outthink the russians, we ought to capacity to outthink the russians, we ought to recognise capacity to outthink the russians, we ought to recognise that capacity to outthink the russians, we ought to recognise that the. We ought to recognise that the russians we ought to recognise that the russians have we ought to recognise that the russians have been we ought to recognise that the russians have been learning, i we ought to recognise that the russians have been learning, slowly, haltingly. Russians have been learning, slowly, haltingly. And russians have been learning, slowly, haltingly, and often russians have been learning, slowly, haltingly, and often in russians have been learning, slowly, haltingly, and often in a russians have been learning, slowly, haltingly, and often in a rather haltingly, and often in a rather brutal haltingly, and often in a rather brutal manner, haltingly, and often in a rather brutal manner, but haltingly, and often in a rather. Brutal manner, but nonetheless, haltingly, and often in a rather brutal manner, but nonetheless, they have been brutal manner, but nonetheless, they have been learning, brutal manner, but nonetheless, they have been learning, and brutal manner, but nonetheless, they have been learning, and they brutal manner, but nonetheless, they have been learning, and they know i have been learning, and they know this offensive have been learning, and they know this offensive is have been learning, and they know this offensive is coming, have been learning, and they know this offensive is coming, so this offensive is coming, so presumably, this offensive is coming, so presumably, they this offensive is coming, so presumably, they have this offensive is coming, so i presumably, they have made this offensive is coming, so presumably, they have made their preparations preparations. But preparations. But what preparations. | but what they preparations. But what they have got preparations. But what they have got now, which may be taking them away from the front line, is inside russia, in belgorod, there is fighting going on. That is damaging for the russians, isnt it . It on. That is damaging for the russians, isnt it . On. That is damaging for the russians, isnt it . It is damaging, but essentially russians, isnt it . It is damaging, but essentially politically russians, isnt it . It is damaging,| but essentially politically damaging will stop but essentially politically damaging will stop lets but essentially politically damaging will stop lets be but essentially politically damaging will stop lets be clear. But essentially politically damaging will stop lets be clear. This but essentially politically damaging will stop lets be clear. This is but essentially politically damaging will stop lets be clear. This is a will stop lets be clear. This is a raid. Will stop lets be clear. This is a raid, certainly will stop lets be clear. This is a raid, certainly not will stop lets be clear. This is a raid, certainly not a will stop lets be clear. This is a raid, certainly not a major raid, certainly not a major incursion raid, certainly not a major incursion at raid, certainly not a major incursion at this raid, certainly not a major incursion at this stage, i raid, certainly not a major incursion at this stage, soj raid, certainly not a major. Incursion at this stage, so it basically incursion at this stage, so it basically puts incursion at this stage, so it basically puts a incursion at this stage, so it basically puts a Political Incursion at this stage, so it basically puts a political dilemma on the basically puts a political dilemma on the kremlin. Basically puts a political dilemma on the kremlin. Does basically puts a political dilemma on the kremlin. Does it basically puts a political dilemma on the kremlin. Does it try basically puts a political dilemma on the kremlin. Does it try to on the kremlin. Does it try to reinforce on the kremlin. Does it try to reinforce its on the kremlin. Does it try to reinforce its borders, on the kremlin. Does it try to reinforce its borders, which. On the kremlin. Does it try to. Reinforce its borders, which will take reinforce its borders, which will take trips reinforce its borders, which will take trips away reinforce its borders, which will take trips away from reinforce its borders, which will take trips away from its reinforce its borders, which will take trips away from its front. Reinforce its borders, which will. Take trips away from its front line, or does take trips away from its front line, or does it take trips away from its front line, or does it more take trips away from its front line, or does it more or take trips away from its front line, or does it more or less take trips away from its front line, or does it more or less except take trips away from its front line, | or does it more or less except that places or does it more or less except that places like or does it more or less except that places like belgorod, or does it more or less except that places like belgorod, they or does it more or less except that places like belgorod, they are or does it more or less except that. Places like belgorod, they are going to have places like belgorod, they are going to have to places like belgorod, they are going to have to fend places like belgorod, they are going to have to fend for places like belgorod, they are going to have to fend for themselves, to have to fend for themselves, because to have to fend for themselves, because they to have to fend for themselves, because they cannot allow to have to fend for themselves, because they cannot allow themselves to be distracted . Because they cannot allow themselves to be distracted . At because they cannot allow themselves to be distracted . At present, because they cannot allow themselves to be distracted . At present, the to be distracted . At present, the kremlin to be distracted . At present, the kremlin is to be distracted . At present, the kremlin is clearly to be distracted . At present, the kremlin is clearly being to be distracted . At present, thel kremlin is clearly being ruthlessly pragmatic kremlin is clearly being ruthlessly pragmatic and kremlin is clearly being ruthlessly pragmatic and more kremlin is clearly being ruthlessly pragmatic and more or kremlin is clearly being ruthlessly pragmatic and more or less kremlin is clearly being ruthlessly. Pragmatic and more or less Leaving Belgorod pragmatic and more or less Leaving Belgorod to pragmatic and more or less Leaving Belgorod to its pragmatic and more or less Leaving Belgorod to its own pragmatic and more or less Leaving Belgorod to its own devices. Belgorod to its own devices. 0k~ 0k. Yuriy sak, i wonder if you genuinely expect people to believe that there operatives who are crossing the russian border into belgorod, hundreds of men, it would seem, with certain weapons, operating at that level, are you really expecting people to believe they are nothing to do with the ukrainians . We have said that some of these russian partisans, mainly all of them, russian citizens. Some of them have been members of the International Legion in the past. But we have stressed many times that we do not have any direct control over these troops. The Military Operations are absolutely independent. One thing that surprises us that it took them so long, but we understand that russian partisans, these insurgents, they are seeing how the Ukrainian Armed forces are beating russians on the battlefield and we believe that it just gives them inspiration and encouragement. Because we are exposing russia as the tiger, they are degraded, demoralised, and for those russians who are unhappy about their regime, about their terrorists in the kremlin, this is a good opportunity. I will say one more time that we are surprised it has taken them so long. Time that we are surprised it has taken them so long. Evelyn farkas, ou are taken them so long. Evelyn farkas, you are talking taken them so long. Evelyn farkas, you are talking to taken them so long. Evelyn farkas, you are talking to us taken them so long. Evelyn farkas, you are talking to us from you are talking to us from washington to dc. Is it possible to keep supplying ukraine with this level of weaponry washington, dc. As the months and years go by . Yes. As the months and years go by . Yes, i do think so, as the months and years go by . Yes, i do think so, victoria. As the months and years go by . Yes, i do think so, victoria. Part of this i do think so, victoria. Part of this will i do think so, victoria. Part of this will be i do think so, victoria. Part of this will be demonstrating continued success this will be demonstrating continued success on this will be demonstrating continued success on the battlefield which i think success on the battlefield which i think the success on the battlefield which i think the ukrainians will be able to do, think the ukrainians will be able to do. Even think the ukrainians will be able to do. Even if think the ukrainians will be able to do, even if it will take some time for them do, even if it will take some time for them to do, even if it will take some time for them to prevail, some time for them for them to prevail, some time for them to for them to prevail, some time for them to decide that they have thrown out all them to decide that they have thrown out all of them to decide that they have thrown out all of the russians or enough russians out all of the russians or enough russians before they want to go and negotiate russians before they want to go and negotiate. So they will have to show successr negotiate. So they will have to show success i negotiate. So they will have to show success, i think, negotiate. So they will have to show success, ithink, in negotiate. So they will have to show success, i think, in order to continue success, i think, in order to continue to success, i think, in order to continue to enjoy the support of the west continue to enjoy the support of the west but continue to enjoy the support of the west. But on the other hand, frankly, west. But on the other hand, frankly, if west. But on the other hand, frankly, if they didnt enjoy successr frankly, if they didnt enjoy success, we would be in a lot of trouble success, we would be in a lot of trouble politically and strategically when it comes to russia strategically when it comes to russia and india china and other countries russia and india china and other countries. Sol russia and india china and other countries. So i think either way, we would countries. So i think either way, we would find countries. So i think either way, we would find ourselves in a situation where would find ourselves in a situation where we would find ourselves in a situation where we would provide ukraine with equipment where we would provide ukraine with equipment and we would have to provide equipment and we would have to provide them with more if they are being provide them with more if they are being defeated and china. To being defeated and china. Believe that being defeated and china. Trr believe that as we head into the us president ial cycle . There is jeopardy around the commitment to ukraine, depending on who wins. Do you believe that. You ukraine, depending on who wins. Do you believe that. Do you believe that. You are correct. Do you believe that. You are correct. But do you believe that. You are correct, but we do you believe that. You are correct, but we have do you believe that. You are correct, but we have seen i do you believe that. You are correct, but we have seen in do you believe that. You are correct, but we have seen in the us congress correct, but we have seen in the us congress recently over this crazy argument congress recently over this crazy argument about raising our debt limitr argument about raising our debt limit, which of course comes on the heels limit, which of course comes on the heels of limit, which of course comes on the heels of Congress Actually writing a lot of heels of Congress Actually writing a lot of checks, so they already made that decision, but nevertheless, because that decision, but nevertheless, because of the way our system works, the laws because of the way our system works, the laws that are in place, they had to make the laws that are in place, they had to make a the laws that are in place, they had to make a separate vote. But we were very much to make a separate vote. But we were very much wondering how that would turn out very much wondering how that would turn out because of the very vocal fringe. Turn out because of the very vocal fringe, especially on the right. But the centre fringe, especially on the right. But the centre held. And i do believe when the centre held. And i do believe when it the centre held. And i do believe when it comes to issues of foreign policy, when it comes to issues of foreign policy, the when it comes to issues of foreign policy, the centre will hold. Mark galeotti, what policy, the centre will hold. Mark galeotti, what is policy, the centre will hold. Mark galeotti, what is your policy, the centre will hold. R galeotti, what is your assessment of how this will play out over the coming months . How this will play out over the coming months . Well, exactly, i mean, it coming months . Well, exactly, i mean. It is coming months . Well, exactly, i mean. It is very coming months . Well, exactly, i mean, it is very hard coming months . Well, exactly, i mean, it is very hard to coming months . Well, exactly, i mean, it is very hard to guess i mean, it is very hard to guess because mean, it is very hard to guess because precisely mean, it is very hard to guess because precisely the mean, it is very hard to guess i because precisely the ukrainians have because precisely the ukrainians have been because precisely the ukrainians have been very because precisely the ukrainians have been very cagey because precisely the ukrainians have been very cagey about because precisely the ukrainians| have been very cagey about their battle have been very cagey about their Battle Plansr have been very cagey about their battle plans, for have been very cagey about their battle plans, for entirely battle plans, for entirely understandable battle plans, for entirelyj understandable reasons. Battle plans, for entirely understandable reasons. Secondly, it is such understandable reasons. Secondly, it is such a understandable reasons. Secondly, it is such a gamble understandable reasons. Secondly, it is such a gamble because understandable reasons. Secondly, it is such a gamble because they understandable reasons. Secondly, it is such a gamble because they are i is such a gamble because they are using is such a gamble because they are using what is such a gamble because they are using what is is such a gamble because they are using what is after is such a gamble because they are using what is after all is such a gamble because they are using what is after all ultimately. Using what is after all ultimately new kit using what is after all ultimately new kit which using what is after all ultimately new kit which requires using what is after all ultimately new kit which requires a using what is after all ultimately new kit which requires a new. Using what is after all ultimatelyl new kit which requires a new way using what is after all ultimately. New kit which requires a new way of war~ new kit which requires a new way of war~ if new kit which requires a new way of war~ if anything. New kit which requires a new way of war. If anything, they new kit which requires a new way of war. If anything, they will new kit which requires a new way of war. If anything, they will want new kit which requires a new way of war. If anything, they will want to l war. If anything, they will want to try to war. If anything, they will want to try to break war. If anything, they will want to try to break out war. If anything, they will want to try to break out of war. If anything, they will want to try to break out of this try to break out of this attritional, try to break out of this attritional, grinding i try to break out of this attritional, grinding conflict, which attritional, grinding conflict, which in attritional, grinding conflict, which in some attritional, grinding conflict, which in some ways attritional, grinding conflict, which in some ways does. Attritional, grinding conflict,. Which in some ways does after attritional, grinding conflict, which in some ways does after all favour which in some ways does after all favour russiar which in some ways does after all favour russia, which which in some ways does after all favour russia, which has which in some ways does after all favour russia, which has a favour russia, which has a population favour russia, which has a population of favour russia, which has a population of more favour russia, which has a population of more than. Favour russia, which has a population of more than three times of ukraine population of more than three times of ukraine and population of more than three times of ukraine and turn population of more than three times of ukraine and turn it population of more than three times of ukraine and turn it into of ukraine and turn it into something of ukraine and turn it into something more of ukraine and turn it into something more mobile,| of ukraine and turn it into something more mobile, fluid, westem something more mobile, fluid, western style something more mobile, fluid, western style combined something more mobile, fluid, western style combined arms. | something more mobile, fluid, western style combined arms. That is hard and western style combined arms. That is hard and they western style combined arms. That is hard and they have western style combined arms. That is hard and they have not western style combined arms. That is hard and they have not had western style combined arms. That is hard and they have not had chance. Western style combined arms. That is hard and they have not had chance to| hard and they have not had chance to gauge hard and they have not had chance to gauge that hard and they have not had chance to gauge that before hard and they have not had chance to gauge that before because hard and they have not had chance to gauge that before because they hard and they have not had chance to gauge that before because they are l gauge that before because they are having gauge that before because they are having to gauge that before because they are having to do gauge that before because they are having to do that gauge that before because they are having to do that in gauge that before because they are having to do that in the gauge that before because they are having to do that in the middle gauge that before because they are having to do that in the middle of. Gauge that before because they are having to do that in the middle of aj having to do that in the middle of a real war. Having to do that in the middle of a real war. So having to do that in the middle of a real war, so that having to do that in the middle of a real war, so that will having to do that in the middle of a real war, so that will be having to do that in the middle of a real war, so that will be a real war, so that will be a challenge real war, so that will be a challenge for real war, so that will be a challenge for them. Real war, so that will be a i challenge for them. Likewise real war, so that will be a challenge for them. Likewise from the Point Challenge for them. Likewise from the point of challenge for them. Likewise from the Point Of View challenge for them. Likewise from the Point Of View of challenge for them. Likewise from the Point Of View of the challenge for them. Likewise from the Point Of View of the russians, | challenge for them. Likewise froml the Point Of View of the russians, i think the Point Of View of the russians, i think they the Point Of View of the russians, i think theyiust the Point Of View of the russians, i think theyjust want the Point Of View of the russians, i think theyjust want to the Point Of View of the russians, i think theyjust want to try the Point Of View of the russians, i think theyjust want to try and the Point Of View of the russians, ij think theyjust want to try and hold as much think theyjust want to try and hold as much as think theyjust want to try and hold as much as they think theyjust want to try and hold as much as they can. Think theyjust want to try and hold as much as they can. Just think theyjust want to try and hold as much as they can. Just staying l think theyjust want to try and hold | as much as they can. Just staying in the fight as much as they can. Just staying in the fight from as much as they can. Just staying in the fight from their as much as they can. Just staying in the fight from their point as much as they can. Just staying in the fight from their point of as much as they can. Just staying in the fight from their Point Of View. The fight from their Point Of View is a win the fight from their Point Of View is a win because the fight from their Point Of View is a win because precisely, the fight from their Point Of View is a win because precisely, Theyl The Fight from their Point Of View. Is a win because precisely, they are gambling is a win because precisely, they are gambling on is a win because precisely, they are gambling on the is a win because precisely, they are gambling on the fact is a win because precisely, they are gambling on the fact that is a win because precisely, they are gambling on the fact that over is a win because precisely, they are l gambling on the fact that over time, the wests gambling on the fact that over time, the wests enthusiasm gambling on the fact that over time, the wests enthusiasm to gambling on the fact that over time, the wests enthusiasm to continue l gambling on the fact that over time, i the wests enthusiasm to continue to spend the wests enthusiasm to continue to spend billions the wests enthusiasm to continue to spend billions of the wests enthusiasm to continue to spend billions of pounds, the wests enthusiasm to continue to spend billions of pounds, dollars spend billions of pounds, dollars and euros spend billions of pounds, dollars and euros every spend billions of pounds, dollars and euros every month spend billions of pounds, dollars and euros every month on spend billions of pounds, dollars i and euros every month on ukraine will diminish and euros every month on ukraine will diminish. So and euros every month on ukraine will diminish. So in and euros every month on ukraine will diminish. So in those will diminish. So in those circumstances, will diminish. So in those circumstances, in will diminish. So in those circumstances, in a will diminish. So in those circumstances, in a way, | will diminish. So in those circumstances, in a way, there is two different circumstances, in a way, there is two different wars circumstances, in a way, there is two different wars being circumstances, in a way, there is two different wars being fought i circumstances, in a way, there is. Two different wars being fought and honestly, two different wars being fought and honestly, i two different wars being fought and honestly, i wish two different wars being fought and honestly, i wish i two different wars being fought and honestly, i wish i could two different wars being fought and honestly, i wish i could give two different wars being fought and honestly, i wish i could give you two different wars being fought and honestly, i wish i could give you a i honestly, i wish i could give you a more honestly, i wish i could give you a more concrete honestly, i wish i could give you a more concrete answer, honestly, i wish i could give you a more concrete answer, but honestly, i wish i could give you a more concrete answer, but we honestly, i wish i could give you ai more concrete answer, but we just have more concrete answer, but we just have to more concrete answer, but we just have to wait more concrete answer, but we just have to wait and more concrete answer, but we just have to wait and see more concrete answer, but we just have to wait and see what more concrete answer, but we just. Have to wait and see what emerges. Yuri sak, have to wait and see what emerges. Yuri sak, how have to wait and see what emerges. Yuri sak, how much have to wait and see what emerges. Yuri sak, how much concern have to wait and see what emerges. Yuri sak, how much concern is have to wait and see what emerges. J yuri sak, how much concern is there in kyiv about how long the commitment from Western Allies will continue when it comes to providing not just continue when it comes to providing notjust humanitarian aid, but military aid . Late notjust humanitarian aid, but military aid . Notjust humanitarian aid, but military aid . Notjust humanitarian aid, but milita aid . , �. ,. , military aid . We dont want to be firrhtin military aid . We dont want to be fighting this military aid . We dont want to be fighting this war military aid . We dont want to be fighting this war forever military aid . We dont want to be fighting this war forever and military aid . We dont want to be fighting this war forever and we l fighting this war forever and we dont want our allies to have to support us forever. So this is why we insist on directly communicate with our partners, asking them to facilitate and streamline the provision to ukraine, the Weapon Systems that we are requesting. As we have seen in the past several months, we have successfully created a Tank Coalition and that will play an instrumental role now in the battlefield. We are now talking to our partners about the f 16 weapons for ukraine and that is forthcoming, even though just for ukraine and that is forthcoming, even thoughjust a for ukraine and that is forthcoming, even though just a few weeks ago even, it seemed impossible, now we have eight countries, including the United States of america, who are supporting the creation of the Fighterjets Coalition for ukraine. So it is in our common interest to end this war as soon as possible because we understand if it turns into a frozen conflict, a frozen war, then it will be more difficult to sustain it. But at the same time, plans are already in place and our european allies are ramping up the Ammunition Production for example. And we are thinking ourselves about how to recreate and rebuild our Defence Industry base, but i will repeat, we dont want to fight forever. We want to end this as soon as possible and our allies, too. Thank you all very, thank you for being with us this evening, thank you. The labour metro mayor for north of tyne is taking advice on whether to take legal action against his party after he was banned from standing for a new role for the wider region. One senior labour mp said Jamie Driscoll was barred after appearing on a panel with filmmaker ken loach. He was expelled from the party for supporting members accused of Anti Semitism. Mr loach said keeping mr driscoll off the longlist because they shared a platform was the lamest excuse ive ever heard. Nicks here. What has been happening . Well, there is a lot of unhappiness on the left andindeed is a lot of unhappiness on the left and indeed on the soft left of the labour party about what has been happening here. We have seen andy burnham, former cabinet minister under gordon brown, who is now labours mayor of greater manchester, joining forces with his very good friend steve rotheram, who when he was an mp was a very Senior Adviser to jeremy when he was an mp was a very Senior Adviser toJeremy Corbyn who is now the labour mayor of the liverpool city region. They have written jointly to the chair of labours National Executive committee and they have complained about excluding a eu to, sitting mayor with no right of appeal. Labour says during the process to find a candidate to find this north east mayoralty, some candidates did not meet the threshold required to proceed to the longest stage excluding a city mayor. That is about the decision of Jamie Driscoll to share a platform with the film maker ken loach who was expelled from the labour party in 2021 after he stood by groups which had criticised keir starmer� s attempts to tackle Anti Semitism in the labour party. The labour party is complaining that mr driscoll trochu to apologise. During that platform. I dont put words in his mouth, but i think you will find mr driscoll will say, that was an accident. Driscoll will say, that was an accident driscoll will say, that was an accident. ,. ,. , accident. There is a wider issue for the left when accident. There is a wider issue for the left when it accident. There is a wider issue for the left when it comes accident. There is a wider issue for the left when it comes to accident. There is a wider issue for the left when it comes to selection for parliamentary candidates, isnt there . ,. ,. , for parliamentary candidates, isnt there . ,. There . There is a real concern there are sittin there . There is a real concern there are sitting labour there . There is a real concern there are sitting labour mps there . There is a real concern there are sitting labour mps struggling i there . There is a real concern there are sitting labour mps struggling to j are sitting labour mps struggling to get selected for new seats because there are boundary changes and aspiring mps on the left struggling. And you are Hearing Complaints there is a wholesale and systematic attempt to weed out candidates from the left. You are hearing words like stalinist purge. You are hearing things like, there are kafkaesque excuses for why certain people cannot stand. I am also hearing momentum, the Campaign Group under Jeremy Corbyn and Jeremy Corbyn supporters, never got remotely anywhere near doing anything like this for their wing of the party whilstJeremy Corbyn was labour leader. On those parliamentary selections, Labour Sources say nobody has a right to be a parliamentary candidate, we make no apologies for having high standards, given some of the problems of the past. And you are going to hear a lot from keir starmer supporters thatJeremy Corbyn led the labour party to its worst defeat since 1935, in 2019, and keir starmer wants to show the electorate that era is over. Wants to show the electorate that era is over era is over. Thank you very much clinic, era is over. Thank you very much clinic. Thank era is over. Thank you very much clinic, thank you. And Jamie Driscoll is here now. So too is paul richards, a Labour Commentator and former special adviser. Welcome to you both. Jamie driscoll, first of all, i want to read this quote to you from mike catt, chair of the jewish labour quote to you from mike catt, chair of thejewish labour movement, and this is what he said of you. Quite how anyone, let alone the most Senior Regional leader in the north east, camping it is ok to organise an event with someone with these disgraceful views and track record is beyond us can think it is ok. There is no ignorance here, mr loachs views are known and therefore it is a choice. Mr loach is not here, but that is a quote from mike catt. From mike catt. Sorry, i wasnt aware there from mike catt. Sorry, i wasnt aware there was from mike catt. Sorry, i wasnt aware there was a from mike catt. Sorry, i wasnt aware there was a question, i aware there was a question, victoria. ,. , , victoria. The question is this, why did ou victoria. The question is this, why did you make victoria. The question is this, why did you make that victoria. The question is this, why did you make that choice . Victoria. The question is this, why did you make that choice . Well, | victoria. The question is this, why| did you make that choice . Well, if ou are did you make that choice . Well, if you are interested did you make that choice . Well, if you are interested in did you make that choice . Well, if you are interested in the did you make that choice . Well, if you are interested in the facts did you make that choice . Well, if you are interested in the facts of. You are interested in the facts of it, this was a regional art event, ken loach filmed i, daniel blake and most recently the old oak in the north east and i was asked to talk to him about those films, that is what we talked about and issues around film, his favourite film and how he got started. That is what it was. And if we are saying it is unacceptable to talk to someone who may have been expelled from the labour party, but lets be clear, was not expelled for Anti Semitism but complaining about the labour process. If you get expelled, who is safe now . Anyone who has spoken about anything . If i was angela rayner, i would about anything . If i was angela rayner, iwould be about anything . If i was angela rayner, i would be worried. The sword of damocles hanging over everybody in the labour party who doesnt fit with this centralised intent. But that is not what this is about, that is what is being briefed. This is not allowing members in the north east to choose their own candidate. This is the london labour bubble getting rid of someone who doesnt fit. And this will do a lot of damage to the labour party, victoria. I have had people literally stopping me in the street today who i have never met saying, this is an outrage. E mails and social media. And if you alienate people, if we look at our part of the world which voted leave, that was not because people interested in the machinations of the european commission, but they felt they felt left behind and away from decision making. Mike felt they felt left behind and away from decisionmaking. Mike catt went on to say away from decisionmaking. Mike catt went on to say you away from decisionmaking. Mike catt went on to say you should away from decisionmaking. Mike catt went on to say you should apologise i went on to say you should apologise for sitting alongside ken loach because you absolutely knew his views, that he had, as mike catt said, his denial is in. He denied the extent of Anti Semitism in the party and you should apologise for sitting alongside him, would you like to take the opportunity to do that . I like to take the opportunity to do that . 4 like to take the opportunity to do that . ~ , that . I think it is entirely unreasonable that . I think it is entirely unreasonable and that . I think it is entirely unreasonable and i that . I think it is entirelyj unreasonable and i reject that . I think it is entirely unreasonable and i reject the premise of that. Talking to ken loach about films he has made, you know how many Feature Films have been set in the north east in the past decade . Three, all of them ken loach films, it is a big deal here culturally. Loach films, it is a big deal here culturally loach films, it is a big deal here culturall. ,. , culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca, culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca. Do culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca. Do you culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca, do you accept culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca, do you accept that . Culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca, do you accept that . No, | culturally. Let me bring in holiday mecca, do you accept that . No, i| mecca, do you accept that . No, i dont, and mecca, do you accept that . No, i dont, and if mecca, do you accept that . No, i dont, and if somebody mecca, do you accept that . No, i dont, and if somebody applies i mecca, do you accept that . No, i dont, and if somebody applies for a ob dont, and if somebody applies for a job and dont, and if somebody applies for a job and theyve fail on the clear criteria, job and theyve fail on the clear criteria, they should fail in the process criteria, they should fail in the process criteria, they should fail in the process paul richards. It is a new process paul richards. It is a Newjob Process paul richards. It is a newjob and process paul richards. It is a newjob and not the job hes doing now and newjob and not the job hes doing now and there are candidates far better now and there are candidates far better equipped. Now and there are candidates far better equipped now and there are candidates far better equipped. Jamie driscoll has achieved the better equipped. Jamie driscoll has achieved the following better equipped. Jamie driscoll has achieved the following as better equipped. Jamie driscoll has achieved the following as mayor, i better equipped. Jamie driscoll has | achieved the following as mayor, he has created over 4,000 jobs from a standing start, businesses have since signed up to the voluntary good work pledge which improves the pay and working conditions of over 50,000 workers, he has set up a Venture Capitalfund 50,000 workers, he has set up a Venture Capital fund owned by the combined authority, he says he has brought Big Companies to set up in the area. ,. ,. , the area. Those are all right achievements. The area. Those are all right achievements. Well, the area. Those are all right achievements. Well, great, | the area. Those are all right achievements. Well, great, and congratulations to him, but this is a new congratulations to him, but this is a new role, congratulations to him, but this is a new role, he didnt meet the criteria a new role, he didnt meet the criteria. The criteria was very clear. Criteria. The criteria was very clear. If criteria. The criteria was very clear, if you do something that allows clear, if you do something that allows our clear, if you do something that allows our opponents stick with which allows our opponents stick with which to allows our opponents stick with which to beat is notjust in this election. Which to beat is notjust in this election, but any election across the country, those are the rules. The people the country, those are the rules. The people on this panel are the people the people on this panel are the People Labour Party elected to uphold People Labour Party elected to uphold the rules ahead of a big and very important general election. He fell foul very important general election. He fell foul of very important general election. He fell foul of that. No and is entitled fell foul of that. No and is entitled to this candidature and if you are entitled to this candidature and if you are a entitled to this candidature and if you are a better candidate, those are the you are a better candidate, those are the ones the members in the north are the ones the members in the north east are the ones the members in the north east will select to do this Ob North East will select to do this jOb North East will select to do this job no one is entitled. If was offered job no one is entitled. If was offered an job no one is entitled. If was offered an opportunity to stand on a platform offered an opportunity to stand on a platform with ken loach, i would not chat to platform with ken loach, i would not chat to him platform with ken loach, i would not chat to him about movies, i would challenge chat to him about movies, i would challenge him on the odis and repulsive challenge him on the odis and repulsive things he has said in the last 25 repulsive things he has said in the last 25 years. Did repulsive things he has said in the last 25 years repulsive things he has said in the i last 25 years. Yes, last 25 years. Did you do that . Yes, i was last 25 years. Did you do that . Yes, i was talking last 25 years. Did you do that . Yes, i was talking to last 25 years. Did you do that . Yes, i was talking to ken last 25 years. Did you do that . Yes, i was talking to ken loach last 25 years. Did you do that . Yes, i was talking to ken loach about. I was talking to ken loach about film. , y. , i was talking to ken loach about film. , i. ,. , film. No, did you challenge him on some of those film. No, did you challenge him on some of those views . Film. No, did you challenge him on some of those views . Again, film. No, did you challenge him on some of those views . Again, i film. No, did you challenge him on i some of those views . Again, i reject some of those views . Again, i reect the premise, some of those views . Again, i reect the premise, you � some of those views . Again, i reect the premise, you dont i some of those views . Again, i reect the premise, you dont turn � some of those views . Again, i reect the premise, you dont turn up h some of those views . Again, i reject the premise, you dont turn up to. Some of those views . Again, i reject the premise, you dont turn up to a i the premise, you dont turn up to a cultural event and Start Talking about something you are not invited to talk about. Why not . Exactly what are we talking about . If someone wants to say ken loach is anti semitic, they should say it and stop all this. I want to challenge pauls criteria about good about being good at the job, pauls criteria about good about being good at thejob, i am sitting metro mayor and if i am not good enough for that, why has the labour party not taken disciplinary action . This is going to damage labour. He is raising the argument about, i havent met the threshold, there is no published threshold. Havent met the threshold, there is no published threshold. Jamie, it is a different job. No published threshold. Jamie, it is a different job, not no published threshold. Jamie, it is a different job, not the no published threshold. Jamie, it is a different job, not the job no published threshold. Jamie, it is a different job, not the job you no published threshold. Jamie, it is a different job, not the job you are | a differentjob, not the job you are doing a differentjob, not the job you are doing now a differentjob, not the job you are doing now in a much bigger constituency. | doing now in a much bigger constituency. Doing now in a much bigger constituen. ~. ,. ,. ,. , constituency. I know a lot more about the constituency. I know a lot more about the north constituency. I know a lot more about the north east constituency. I know a lot more about the north east than constituency. I know a lot more about the north east than you i constituency. I know a lot more i about the north east than you do, constituency. I know a lot more about the north east than you do, i am doing thisjob now, mate. I am widely respected cross party. The Gateshead Labour Group tonight has refused to nominate on the basis of the way i have been treated. Independents have put in motion is to councils. Independents have put in motion is to councils to councils. You sound like david brent, somehow to councils. You sound like david brent, somehow entitled to councils. You sound like david brent, somehow entitled to to councils. You sound like david brent, somehow entitled to do i to councils. You sound like david i brent, somehow entitled to do the ob. Brent, somehow entitled to do the job the brent, somehow entitled to do the job. The slot behind me, they will back me job. The slot behind me, they will back me no job. The slot behind me, they will back me no matter what. The judge rules back me no matter what. The judge rules are back me no matter what. The judge rules are there for everybody, even you should rules are there for everybody, even you should obey the rules. Rules are there for everybody, even you should obey the rules. You should obey the rules. The rules. You should obey the rules. The rules you you should obey the rules. The rules. You are you should obey the rules. The rules. You are showing you should obey the rules. The rules. You are showing a you should obey the rules. The rules. You are showing a total rules. You are showing a total disregard. Rules. You are showing a total disregard. If rules. You are showing a total disregard, if you rules. You are showing a total disregard, if you believe rules. You are showing a total disregard, if you believe in. Disregard, if you believe in democracy, why not let the members make that decision . I am not asking to be slotted into the job, make that decision . I am not asking to be slotted into thejob, i am asking to be allowed to put my case to members. You asking to be allowed to put my case to members asking to be allowed to put my case to members. ,. ,. ,. , to members. You have been treated no differently from to members. You have been treated no differently from any to members. You have been treated no differently from any other to members. You have been treated no differently from any other labour differently from any other labour candidates, they asked the question, is there candidates, they asked the question, is there anything that will allow the opponents to beat us up in an election . The opponents to beat us up in an election . You have not apologised for it. Election . You have not apologised for it. You election . You have not apologised for it, you have admitted you did it and it for it, you have admitted you did it and it is for it, you have admitted you did it and it is against rules now and you did and it is against rules now and you did it. And it is against rules now and you did it, now you are pretending you did it, now you are pretending you didnt you did it, now you are pretending you didnt know the rules. You didnt know the rules. Which rules say you you didnt know the rules. Which rules say you cant you didnt know the rules. Which rules say you cant talk you didnt know the rules. Which rules say you cant talk to you didnt know the rules. Which rules say you cant talk to a rules say you cant talk to a film maker about films . You are making it up as you go along. I making it up as you go along. I would stand up for the jewish members of our party who are so offended members of our party who are so offended by what he has done over the last offended by what he has done over the last couple of years and you didnt the last couple of years and you didnt mention a word of it. You are showin didnt mention a word of it. You are Showing Contempt didnt mention a word of it. You are Showing Contempt for didnt mention a word of it. You are Showing Contempt for the didnt mention a word of it. You are Showing Contempt for the people i didnt mention a word of it. You are Showing Contempt for the people of the north east, this will come back to bite labour party. I have had people say, i voted labour all my life. I know one person who got in touch or i dont know who said, i dumped leaflets i was going to deliver back on the doorstep of the party office because i am refusing to support the party. This makes labour look bad, it makes it look like a control freak party. People in the labour party, soft left and centre, living under The Sword Of Damocles because Everybody Knows that they could be next. Late damocles because Everybody Knows that they could be next. That they could be next. We are rroin to that they could be next. We are going to select that they could be next. We are going to select a great going to select a great candidate for this going to select a great candidate for this selection, i hope people will vote for this selection, i hope people will vote labour, there are some great will vote labour, there are some great people in the running and know when great people in the running and know when is great people in the running and know when is bigger or better than the party when is bigger or better than the party or when is bigger or better than the party or the when is bigger or better than the party orthe rules, simple when is bigger or better than the party or the rules, simple as that. Thank you very much, both. And just to say, ken loach is not accused of Anti Semitism. He was expelled in 2021 during the Anti Semitism inquiries. The deputy head of the International Monetary fund has told newsnight it has no reason to change its forecast that brexit will hurt the uk economy. Gita gopinath has been giving a lecture at Glasgow University tonight on the economic potential and societal peril of artificial intelligence. The event was to mark the 300th anniversary of the father of economics, adam smith, who studied at the university. Before she spoke, the imf� s second most senior official sat down with our economics editor ben chu to talk notjust ai, but also the state of the uk economy, our problem with inflation and the impacts of immigration. Youre giving a lecture this evening on artificial intelligence. The uk government put out a white paper where it was suggesting that there are benefits from perhaps diverging from the European Unions approach. Should it be to go in a different direction in terms of regulation from the eu and perhaps the rest of the world, or is it all about collaboration . I think at this point, probably there will be a fair amount of experimentation, given how unclear it is what the impact of ai is going to be. But that said, i think at some point relatively soon, we will need some sort of global understanding on how to deal with al. So in that direction, the fact that the g7 has set up a Working Group to think about how to deal with al is very welcome. Because this is going to cross borders. Lets broaden this out to the global economy. Obviously, all the world economies are recovering from covid. How is the uk doing relative to other developed countries, do you think . Wejust had an upward revision for the uk, so thats positive, but still, this is an environment in the uk where growth is subdued and inflation is high. The uk is still smaller than it was on the eve of the pandemic in terms of overall gdp. What do you think are the reasons for that . A lot of people have cited brexit, and the particular impact of covid on our labourforce. Those are some of the reasons why there hasnt been the full recovery in the uk. Of course, uk also got hammered by the Energy Crisis that came after russias invasion of ukraine. That has had an impact too. Theres also a lingering legacy in the uk of weak investment. This started around 2016, and it has continued until now. Well, you mention 2016. Obviously, that was the date of the brexit referendum. The fund, the imf at the time, said that it estimated that brexit would have a long term negative impact on the uk, between £900 and £1,300 per person. Do you think that forecast has been borne out from what weve seen since we left the eu here . So we put that estimate out around 2018, and we havent done an update since then, but if you look at the more recent estimates by the Bank Of England and others, this is in the ballpark. This was in the range of numbers that we had put out. I think for a fact, investment has been weaker since 2016, Labour Market flexibility has come down, and the intensity of trade of the uk with the eu has come down, so all of these factors, you know, are in line with a weakening economy. Yeah, so its fair to say, that in the funds view, brexit has had a negative impact, although its difficult to quantify exactly how negative . I would say that, yes. Now, on the uk economy specifically, there is a view that we have a worse Inflationary Problem here. Core inflation is higher than a lot of the rest of the g7, in fact, all of the rest of the g7. Inflation is an issue. I mean, in the uk, i would say in many other countries too. I wouldnt make a big difference between small differences in numbers in core inflation, but what we are seeing quite universally is stubborn inflation. We are seeing that as being a more persistent problem than was anticipated. So we are not an outlier, though . I wouldnt. You know, theres an outlie in terms of what has happened with Energy Prices and food prices and so on, but more broadly, i would say that this is a problem that many other countries are facing. 0k. Well, on that, you know, the need to raise Interest Rates, to stamp out inflation, thats creating a lot of anxiety here in the uk, because obviously, it is peoples Mortgage Repayments will go up, and over time, you are talking about Interest Rates above 5 here in the uk. Thats going to be really painful, though, isnt it, for a lot of households, inevitably . So, the economy has still a lack of demand in it, a lot of demand in it, which is one of the reasons why we upgraded our growth for the uk. But we know that if we dont bring Inflation Down durably, thats a much worse situation to be in, even in terms of Labour Markets, in terms of growth, in terms of living standards. We have Record Net Migration. More than 600,000 people came to the uk in 2022. There is some disquiet about that. Some are saying that thats too much. I think the Prime Minister himself has said he wants to bring those numbers down. But on the other hand, the uk economy, as weve discussed, is crying out for labour. Our view is that if you have a well designed immigration policy, the evidence is that thats usually beneficial for the country. You know, you get. The workers who come in, eventually they provide tax revenues, those tax revenues can be used for new infrastructure, providing Public Services and so on. And in this context, with inflation as high as it is, you know, having workers who can fill the shortages in some of the sectors that were seeing right now will help with inflation right now will help with bringing Inflation Down, so i think there are benefits to having workers come in. Again, it has to be a well designed immigration policy. So, a Record Net Migration to the uk is actually helping keep Inflation Down in the uk . I think there is a benefit to be had by getting the right kind of workers in sectors where you have shortages, and the experience worldwide has been that usually immigrants add to the value of the economy. Theres obviously a cultural element to migration as well. I mean, youre an indian american. Does some of the language, some of the rhetoric around migration, does that concern you, that weve seen in recent years, notjust in the uk, but globally . I like to think as an economist, im just staring at the evidence that seems contrary to some of the fears that people have about what immigrants do to economies. I think thats what i feel uncomfortable about. Gita gopinath, thank you so much for talking to newsnight

© 2024 Vimarsana

vimarsana.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.