Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg 20240703 : vimarsana.com

We get the latest. Biden tops the agenda. We are moments away from President Bidens address to the u. N. General assembly. We are going to sit down with the nato secretarygeneral. From new york, im alix steel with my cohost, guy johnson. The most exciting thing for me today is canadian inflation. Guy it is having an impact on the bond market. I am surprised it is nothing question of the day. It includes your favorite things oil and shopping. That sounds perfect. Alix it does. Why is it about shopping . Guy two separate subjects. Alix i got it. Guy it basically brings together your favorite things. Alix 100 . Guy the canadian thing highlights inflation is going to be sticky and Central Banks are going to struggle to bring inflation under control without jacking up rates. That will be an interesting question. You see the reaction in the bond market. But i think the story and this goes to the inflation story out of canada is oil and whether or not oil is the story that breaks the consumer. The consumer is using buy now, pay later credit cards. Student loans are about to kick in. All kinds of factors coming together. Savings rates have been run down. Now you get higher oil prices. Is that what forces the u. S. Consumer to finally back down . Alix weirdly good news for the fed. Oil is helping them do what the rate hikes have not accomplished. Guy absolutely. I am not sure they will see it that way. It depends. I dont think we know the answer to that yet, but we have two Perfect People to get to the bottom of that. This is your Christmas Present early. Does 100 oil crush christmas . Is that is what is going to happen . Joining us is policy correspondent mike mckee, and Kristine Aquino. Is this what forces the consumer to batten down the hatches . Kristine all of the things you mentioned, it sounds flimsy. I think we have seen resilience of consumers in the u. K. And the u. S. , but a lot of it is debt fueled. Oil at 100 sounds like the wildcard that could topple a delicate house of cards, which is what we are sitting on. Alix mike, what do you think . Mike i dont know if oil will but i am depressed about christmas because of the list of things that can go wrong. [laughter] that list, would you could expand on quite easily and throw in the Government Shutdown and the uaw strike, but you do not know what that situation is going to be like in december or november when people are starting their christmas shopping. That is part of the problem the Central Banks have. They do not know what is going to be happening then. 100 oil sounds bad and if it pushes us up to 5 a gallon, it will crimp what is available to spend, but people spend during the holidays anyway. We have seen spending drop but only back to prepandemic. Do people cut back even further . That is hard to say. Alix guy, Morgan Stanley had a note talking about this. It takes about three to eight months for the oil shock to come through and hit the inflation numbers. It really just hit cpi but that is right around christmas. Guy and it started in june. Look back at the chart. We are up 30 since june. Maybe july. But since midsummer. We have seen oil prices up around 30 . We are already well into this effect and it is already, as you say, showing up in the canadian inflation data. I think we are going to see it in other numbers as well. Mike, i will get your take on this. Do Central Banks look through that or do they see it as the shock they need to deal with now . Mike they will look through it as long as they can. The only thing that would get Central Banks going on Energy Prices is if we see Inflation Expectations become unanchored. We saw in the u. S. That we are at the lowest Inflation Expectations since 2020. It is not an issue. If they saw Inflation Expectations become unanchored, you might see the last rate increase the fed has put into the dot plot as single. But i do not think you will see anything. Alix we asked about gas prices and no one is worried yet. They see it coming back down. The psychology is not being embedded in that. However, guy outlined other stuff which is the savings rate, student loan debt, etc. What do you think . Kristine this is what i am worried about. Everything is fine and i agree with mike and the analysts with spoken to. This is not a problem now necessarily. What could turn it into a problem is the other factors that lend consumers vulnerable to sudden shock. This could be it. In the u. S. , there is more resilience we have seen from consumers over a longer time. Not the case in the u. K. They are grappling with the costofliving crisis. There is an overhang of the Energy Crisis from last winter. We are heading into winter again and you can expect people worrying about their energy bills even though it is not to the same extent in terms of prices. Guy the key thing we are watching is what is happening with the labor markets. That could turn hohohointo the grinch very quickly. [laughter] we have a situation where the labor market could turn quickly and companies will be laying off people fast. History tells us when the labor market cracks, it cracks fast. We are seeing the consumer needing extra money maybe as the labor market turns. The consumer finds themselves in deep water. Kristine that is going to be the sticking point. The vulnerability of u. K. Consumers in particular to Global Energy cross current, in addition to what they are dealing with, is why this is a worry. I am going to be looking out for what we see from the u. K. Cpi numbers tomorrow. That is going to give you a sense of the overall inflation picture, but also in the context of record wages in the u. K. The bank of england on thursday. We will see what the bank of england team think about all of this. Alix yohoho . Is that pirate christmas . Guy i will let you figure that one out. Email in if you want to answer. Alix is this something i am missing . Guy pay attention. Alix yohoho. Mike is going to be sitting in for d. C. Does the fed like oil at 100 . He gave me a weird look. Does it help in a way that consumers pair back a little bit but do not fall out of bed . Mike in theory, that could be true. But they have no guarantee that would have a little effect. Thats the problem. No, they would say oil prices would hopefully come back down. But it is really hard to put a damaged figure on it. You do not know how high it is going to go or how long it is good to stay there. Alix we really appreciate both of you. Michael mckee and Kristine Aquino as i look up yohoho and retail. Lisa shalett joins us from Morgan Stanley. Are question of the day is does 100 crush christmas . Lisa, great to get your perspective. Does it . Lisa i think you have done a great job talking about the potential headwinds that it could provide for consumers. I think the bigger question we struggle with as we talked to investors is what is it going to do for Company Profits . The issue here is that it would not necessarily be a problem if expectations were modest. But expectations are quite strong. Part of our reticence about the market and Ellen Zentner talked about is we are entering the fog of so many unknowns. Expectations are for corporate profits to essentially vshape and recover in the Third Quarter ending with yearoveryear growth into next year of 10 , 12 . That is the problem as far as we are concerned. It is not so much that the consumer may cool but that expectations are the consumer is not only going to remain resilient, but reaccelerate spending, exiting christmas into the new year. Guy what does that mean for margins . Which is that mean for costs . Lisa we have long been of the opinion that analysts always misunderstand the secondary and tertiary margin implications of higher oil prices. They seep into everything in terms of transportation, logistics, and supply chain costs. As we have been, and perhaps excessively so, you know, conservative and concerned about margin achievability. A lot of analysts seem to be forecasting margins are going to expand and that is something we would question. We think these headwinds are material. Alix lisa, does that mean cyclicals are definitely a place not to be . Lisa i want to be careful because i think there is lots of types of cyclicals. Right . Some of us would call Energy Stocks and Energy Related stocks cyclicals. And yet, now we believe it is a great time to be buying them because those may be the beneficiaries of what is going on. In addition, we know there are structural tailwinds for the moore capito spending infrastructure related more Capital Spending infrastructure related areas. Where i am concerned is that Consumer Discretionary cyclical. Some of the retail oriented names would be the ones where i think there continues to be some risk. Guy the market has already started to knock those stocks down. How much more is there to come . Lisa i think there is a lot more. I think it has to do with how are we definingry . Once upon a time, we defined it simply as some of the general merchandise and apparel type categories. But what we have to remember is that consumer cyclical exposure is quite large in companies that are dependent on advertising. I think we know who some of those suspects are. They are among the magnificent seven. It is not entirely clear that providers of mobile devices are not going to be impacted by a challenge to consumers. [laughter] i will say while some folks may like to think the magnificent seven are completely defensive, i think they are just Consumer Discretionary. Alix i love what you did not say in that. [laughter] instacart is indicated to open at 39. The ipo was priced at 30. I am not going to talk specifics, but the fact they are shifting to ad revenue how closely are you watching the ipos that come out as an indicator of Market Health and where the growth is . Lisa your question is the right one, in my humble opinion. The issue is more around what is the appetite among investors for ipos and to what extent are people looking to deploy risk capital into some of these earlier stage names . I think from that perspective just the fact we have been able to launch these deals speaks to liquidity in the market, speaks to decent appetite and those are good dynamics for the market. Whether or not i personally would be jumping into a name like this right here, you know, up almost 30 on my ipo offer, you know, that is not necessarily something i would be looking at this morning. Guy final question. If the fed pauses, do i buy stocks or sell stocks . Lisa our analysis is that the pause here is not the alexa. Typically when the fed begins to cut the typical months after the fed cut have not been good for market. You do get into a growth scare. You get into the questions of, hey, does the fed know something i dont know . Might a slow down be more imminent as opposed to some reacceleration . Our best guess is that we are going to move sideways from here off of a pause. Right now, the upside, i think, is very limited by both very high expectations, high valuations, and earnings that need to be realized against the backdrop of growing headwinds. Alix before i let you go i wanted to get your take on yields. We have seen the 5year hitting the highest level since 2007. Do you buy . Do you like yields right now and you buy it for the appreciation or the yields . Lisa i tell people you should always be buying fixed income or bonds for fixed income. Right now, that Coupon Payment looks very juicy, very attractive, not only versus recent history with regard to the asset class but versus stocks. I do believe that the risk is what we would call asymmetric. I believe there is a higher probability that there is downside to yields in the 12 to 18 months ahead than further upside. But i am buying for coupon and i am not trying to be cute thinking im going to make a lot of Capital Gains in bonds the next three to six months. Alix this was great. We appreciate you spending time with us. Lisa shalett of Morgan Stanley. Lisa always great. Alix looking at the s p down half a percentage point. It is 16 minutes past 10 00 . What time is it . We want to get to the startup but i think President Biden is starting to speak right now at the United Nations. Lets go there first. Pres. Biden mr. President , mr. Secretary general, about a week ago i stood on the others of the world in vietnam, on soil once bloody with war. I met a small group of veterans, americans and vietnamese, and i watched the exchange of personal artifacts from that war. Identification cards and a diary. It was deeply moving to see the reaction of the vietnamese and american soldiers. A culmination of 50 years of hard work on both sides to address the painful legacies of war and choose, to choose to Work Together toward peace and a better future. Nothing about that journey was inevitable. For decades, it would have been unthinkable for an american president to stand alongside a vietnamese leader and announce a mutual commitment to the highest level of a countrys partnership. It is a powerful reminder that our history need not dictate our future. With the conservative leadership, adversaries can become partners. Overwhelming challenges can be resolved and deep wounds can heal. Let us never forget that. When we choose to stand together and recognize the common hopes that bind humanity, we hold our hands with the power to bend that arc of history. My fellow leaders, we gather more at an Inflection Point in history with the eyes of the world upon all of you, all of us. As president of the United States, i understand the duty my country has to lead this critical moment. To work with countries in every region, linking them in common cause to join together with partners who share a common vision of the future of the world where our children do not go hungry, and everyone has access to Quality Health care. Where workers are empowered and our environment is protective. Where entrepreneurs and innovators everywhere can access opportunity everywhere. Where conflicts are resolved peacefully and countries can chart their own course. The United States seeks a more secure, more prosperous, more equitable world for all people because we know our future is bound to yours. Let me repeat that. We know our future is bound to yours. No nation can meet the challenges of today alone. The generations that preceded us organized this and built International Financial institutions to help take on the challenges of their time. It was not always perfect. But working together the world made, remarkable and undeniable progress, and improve the lives of all people. We avoided the renewal of global conflict while lifting more than one billion people, one billion people, out of extreme poverty. We together expanded access to education for millions of children. We saved tens of millions of lives that would have otherwise been lost to preventable and treatable diseases like measles, malaria, and tuberculosis. Hivaids infections plummeted in no small part because of the work in more than 55 countries, saving more than 25 million lives. It is a profound testament of what we can achieve when we act together and take on tough challenges. And an admonition to accelerate our progress so no one is left behind, because too many are being left behind. The institutions we built together at the end of the Second World War are an enduring bedrock of our progress. And the United States is committed to sustaining them. This year we are proud to rejoin unesco. We also recognize that to meet the new challenges of our decades old institutions and approaches, they must be updated to keep peace with the world. We have to bring in more leadership and capability that exists everywhere, especially from regions that have not always been fully included. We have to grapple with the challenges that are more connected and complex. And we have to make sure that we are delivering for people everywhere, not just somewhere, everywhere. The 21st century results are badly needed to move us along. That starts right here in this room. In my address last year i announced to the United States would support expanding the security council, increasing the number of permanent and nonpermanent members. The United States has undertaken serious consultation with many Member States and will continue to do our part to push for reform efforts. Look for points of Common Ground and make progress in the year ahead. We need to be able to break the gridlock that too often Stymies Progress and blocks consensus of a counsel. We need more voices, more perspectives at the table. The United Nations must continue to preserve peace to prevent confit and alleviate human suffering. We embrace nations stepping up to lead in new ways and seek breakthroughs on heart issues. For example, on haiti. The Caribbean Community is facilitating dialogue. I think the kenyan president and i thank him as serving as the leader. I call on you to authorize this mission now. The people of haiti cannot wait much longer. The United States is working across the board to make global institutions more responsive, more effective, and more inclusive. For example, we have taken significant steps to scale up the world bank, spending its financing to low and middle Income Countries so it can boost progress toward meeting this sustainable goals. Under the new president of the world bank changes already taking root. Last month i asked the United States congress for additional funds to expand World Bank Financing by 25 billion. At the g20 we mobilize even more funding. Collectively, we can deliver a transformational boost to world bank lending. Because the Multilateral Development banks are among the best tools we have for mobilizing in developing countries, reforming these institutions can be a game changer. We proposed making sure developing countries have a strong voice and representation at the International Monetary fund. We are going to continue efforts to retrain the World Trade Organization while at the same time equipping it to better tackle modernday imperatives, like driving the clean energy transition, protecting workers, promoting an inclusive and sustainable growth. This month we strengthened the g20 as a vital form of welcoming the African Union as a permanent member. By upgrading and strengthening our institutions that is only half the picture. We must also forge new partnerships, confront new challenges. Emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence hold enormous potential and enormous peril. We need to be sure that we use these tools of opportunity not as weapons of oppression, but together with leaders around the world the United States is working to strengthen rules and policies so Ai Technology is safe before they are released to the public. To make sure we govern this technology, not the other way around. I am committed to working through this institution and other National Bodies and directly with leaders around the world, including our competitors, to ensure we harness the power of Artificial Intelligence for good while protecting our citizens from the most profound risk. It is going to take all of us, but we have been doing this for a while. It is going to take all of us to get his right. In every region of the world the United States is mobilizing versatile partnerships, purpose, collective action to bring us together. We united 21 nations in support of a regionwide approach to a regionwide challenge to better uphold laws and protect the rights of migrants. In the end of pacific indo pacific, we deliver concrete progress to the people of the region on everything from vaccines to maritime security. Just yesterday, after two consultations, the United States brought together dozens of nations across four continents to establish a new partnership for landing cooperation. So that the coastal landing countries can better cooperate on science, technology, environmental protection, and sustainable economic development. We brought together nearly 100 countries and a Global Coalition to counter fentanyl and synthetic drugs to reduce the human cost of this affliction. And israel. And it is real. We are working with our partners to bring capabilities to bear to disrupt plotting, degrade networks, and protect all of our people. Additionally, we convened a summit for democracy to strengthen democratic institutions, root out corruption and reject political violence. In this moment were democratically elected governments have been toppled in quick succession we are reminded that this work is as urgent and important as ever. We stand with the African Union and other regional bodies to support constitutional rule. We will not retreat in the values that make us strong. We will defend challenges around the world. We are showing how democracy can deliver in ways that impact peoples lives. This addresses the enormous need an opportunity for Infrastructure Investment in the lower and middle Income Countries, particularly africa, latin america, and southeast asia. Asia. Through strategic, targeted investments, we can unlock enormous private financing. We are working to collectively mobilize 600 billion in infrastructure financing by 2020 seven. The u. S. Is already the has already mobilized more than 30 billion today. We are creating projects for workers, the environment while importing the trap of unsustainable debt. We are focused on Economic Partners that will maximize the impact of our investment and deliver consequential results across multiple countries and sectors. For example, we will extend across africa from the western port of angola to the drc to zambia, boosting regional connectivity and strengthening commerce and Food Security in africa. Similarly, we announce that the g20 an effort to connect india to europe through the ua and saudi arabia. We will spur opportunities to invest across two continents. This is part of our effort to build a more sustainable, integrated release. It demonstrates how israels normalization and economic connection with its neighbors delivers positive and Practical Impacts coming even as we work for lasting peace between israelis and palestinians, two state for two people. Let me be clear that none of these partnerships are about containing any country. They are about a positive vision for our shared future. When it comes to china, i want to be clear and consistent. We seek to responsibly manage the competition between our countries so it does not tip into conflict. I have said we are for derisking, not decoupling, from china. We will push back on aggression and intimidation to defend the rules of the road from to level the economic Playing Field that have helped safeguard security and prosperity, but we also stand ready to work with china where progress hinges uncommon efforts. Nowhere is that more critical that in accelerating the climate the accelerating the Climate Crisis decelerating the Climate Crisis. We see it everywhere he waits, wildfires he waits, wildfires heat wves, wildfires, drought and africa, tragic flooding in libya. My heart goes out to the people. It has killed thousands. Together, these snapshots telling urgent story of what awaits us if we fail to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and begin to climate proof the world. For one day, my my administration, the u. S. Has treated this crisis as an existential threat for the moment from the moment we took office, not only for us but for all of humanity. Last year, i signed into law the largest investment ever, anywhere in the history of the world to combat the Climate Crisis and help move the Global Economy toward a clean energy future. We are also working with congress to quadruple climate financing and help developing countries reach climate will and adapt climate impact. This year, the world is on track to meet the climate finance pledge of the paris agreement. 100 million raised collectively. But we need more investment of public and private sector alike, especially in places that have contributed to low emissions and face some of the worst effects of climate change, like the pacific islands. The u. S. Is working to help these nations adapt and build resilience to climate impacts. Even as we lead the effort to build new partnerships to attack global challenges, from the First Movers Coalition was mobilizing billions of private sector commitments to creating a market demand for Green Products and carbon intensive sectors like concrete, shipping, aviation, and trucking. We are bringing farmers into the climate solution and making food supply more resilient to climate shocks. And they global methane crisis is now endorsed more than 150 countries, which expands our focus beyond Carbon Emissions targets to reduce potential Greenhouse Gases in our atmosphere by 30 in this decade. It is all within our capacity. We need to bring the same commitment and urgency and ambition to meet the Sustainable Development goals of 2030. These goals were adopted at the u. N. Entrance 15 is a roadmap for improving lives around the world. The truth is that the world has lost ground these past years in the wake of covid, complex, and conflicts, and other crises. The United States is committed to getting us back on track. All told, the first two years of my administration, the u. S. Has invested more than 100 billion to drive development and progress, citing food insecurity, expanding access to education and fighting disease. We have helped mobilize billions more in private sector investments. But to accelerate our progress on Sustainable Development walls, we all have to do more. We need to build new partnerships and change the way we tackle this challenge, unlock trillions in financing in development from all sources. We need to fill gaps and address the failures of our existing systems hurt by the pandemic. We need to ensure that women and girls benefit fully from our partners. We can do more to grapple with the debt that holds back low in middle Income Countries. When nations are forced to service unsustainable debt payments over the needs of their own people, it makes it harder for them to invest in their own futures. As we work to recover from global shocks, the United States will continue to be the largest single country donor of humanitarian assistance. At this moment of unparalleled need. Folks, cooperation, partnership these are the keys to progress and the challenges that affect us all. The baseline for responsible global leadership. We do not need to agree on everything to keep moving forward on issues like armscontrol, a cornerstone of international security. After more than 50 years of progress under the nonproliferation treaty, russia is treading longstanding armscontrol agreements, including announcing the suspension of a new start in withdrawing from conventional forces in europe. I view it as irresponsible. It makes the entire world less safe. The u. S. Is pursuing good faith efforts to reduce the threat of weapons of mass destruction and the bank sample no matter what else is happening in the world and lead by example number at or what else is happening in the world. This year we want to fulfill our commitment for the world free of chemical weapons. And there is a continued violation of Un Security Council resolutions but we are committed to diplomacy. We will bring about the denuclearization of the korean peninsula. We are working with our partners to address iran and stabilize activities. I remain steadfast in the commitment that iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon. Drive and create new partnerships. Let me be clear certain principles are sacrosanct. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, human rights these are the core tenants of the u. N. Charter. The pillars of peaceful relations among nations, without which we cannot achieve any of our goals. That has not changed. That must not change. Yet, for the second year in a row, this gathering dedicated to peaceful resolution of conflicts is darkened by the shadow of work. War. An illegal war of conquest without provocation by russia against ukraine. Like every nation, the u. S. Once this war to end. No nation once this war to end up more than ukraine. We strongly support ukraine in its efforts to bring about a diplomatic resolution that delivers just and lasting peace. Russia alone bears responsibility for this war. Russia alone has the power to end this work immediately. War immediately. Russias price for peace is ukraines capitulation, ukraines territory, and ukraines children. Russia believes the world will grow wary. But i ask you this, if we abandon the core principle of the United States to peas in aggressor, can any number states in this body feel comfortable that they are protected . If you allow ukraine to be carved out, is independence of any nation secure . I respectfully suggest the answer is no. We have to stand up to this aggression today and deter wouldbe aggressors tomorrow. That is why the United States, together with allies and partners around the world, will continue to stand with the people of ukraine as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity and freedom. [applause] it pres. Biden it is not only investment in ukraines future, but the future of every country who seeks to govern by basic rules that apply equally to all nations and the pole the rights of every nation, no matter how big or small. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, they are the fixed foundations of this noble body. Universal human rights, this northstar, we cannot sacrifice either. 75 years ago, universal declaration of human rights captured a remarkable act of collective hope. It was drafted by a committee representing different regions, faiths, philosophies, and adopted by the assembly. These rights are elemental, enduring. While we still struggle to oppose equal and inalienable rights of all, they remain ever steady and ever true, we cannot turn away from abuses, wherever they are. We have to continue to ensure that women and girls enjoy people rights and participation in society, that indigenous groups and minorities, people with disabilities do not have their potential stifled by systemic discrimination. The lgbtqi people are not prosecuted or targeted with violence because of who they are. These rights are part of our shared humanity. When they are absent anywhere, their losses felt everywhere. They are part of the Human Progress that brings us together. Our leaders, let me close with this. If this Inflection Point in history we are going to be judged by whether or not we live up to the promises we have made to ourselves, to each other, to the most vulnerable and to all those who inherit the world we create. That is what we are doing. We find within ourselves will we find within ourselves the courage to do what must be done to preserve the planet, protect human dignity, provide opportunity everywhere, and to defend the tenants of the United Nations . There can only be one answer. We must and we will. The road ahead is long and difficult, but if we persevere and prevail, if we keep the faith in ourselves, and show what is possible, lets do this Work Together. Lets deliver progress for everyone, lets bend the arc of history for the good of the world. It is in our power to do it. Thank you for listening. [applause] guy President Biden addressing the u. N. General assembly in new york. Annmarie hordern has been listening. She joined us now from thewalk t was delivered by President Biden. Annmarie he started talking about climate and a number of issues in the world that a lot of countries here can get on board with. Then he moved into china and help the u. S. Is china. The reiterated the talking point we hear from u. S. And european officials about managing competition with china. He says we do not want to decouple. We are derisking. Finally he came to ukraine and said the u. S. Will continue to support ukraine. He called out russia 80 number of times. Putin is not attending this u. N. General assembly when he talked about you frame, he made it about upholding sovereignty for each country. This is the outreach the Biden Administration ones on the international front. He talked about appointing ways to every nation, no matter big or small. Sovereignty end and territorial integrity is a fixed foundation of this body. It is key to him to make sure they can keep including the global south to see the world the way the Biden Administration sees that. Some of these countries have been reluctant to put more pressure on moscow. While biden was speaking, we also heard from speaker mccarthy. Ukraine a is a huge part of the debate ukraine aid is a huge part of the debate in the republican congress. Mccarthy says they want to make sure theres oversight on the taxpayer dollars the u. S. Is sending to ukraine. He will have questions for zelenskyy who will be addressing the u. N. And but later this week meeting with biden and republican lawmakers. Guy sharp words for china as well. Annmarie hordern at the u. N. , thank you. She will be back within the next hour, joining us from the United Nations. She is going to have an interview with jens stoltenboerg. Lets turn our attention back to the question vexing the Financial Markets right now. What impact is this sharply Rising Oil Price going to have . Where does it shove the most . In corporate profits or with the consumer . Our question of the day does 100 oil crush christmas . Does it crush the consumer right at the end of the year . Is q4 going to be tough . A new survey indicating that the consumer will remain resilient as the holidays approach. Joining us now is michelle, u. S. Institute chief economist. Great to talk to you. Well parts high, the consumer is already under pressure. High gas is is basically a tax. Is that way to affect christmas . Michelle we have to keep a close eye on the trajectory of oil prices and how much consumers are paying. When you take a step back and think about the trend in Consumer Spending, it has been strong. Remember that the Holiday Season is not just start during christmas. It starts well before that. It is this extended period of spending where consumers are navigating a variety of factors as they do their best to prepare to spend during this Holiday Season. I still think the number one factor that drives Consumer Spending and will drive this Holiday Season is the labor market. There has been a story of strength with continued job creation, continued turnover of the labor market and wage growth above normal. Alix what are you forecasting for the Holiday Season . Where and what do you expect people to be spending on . Michelle we are forecasting 3. 7 yearoveryear growth, as measured in retail sales november 1 through december 24. That is a spending trajectory that is solid. Whitman is turning back to a more normalized pace of spending, similar to the overall economy inflation pressures are moderating. We are seeing more choice for the consumer. We think the consumer is going to have a lot of power this Holiday Season. Guy so you do not see a recession under the tree this christmas . That is not what we are getting. Michelle you are sticking with this theme of the grinch. Alix he can be pessimistic. Michelle we are in a good place with the economy. It is part of this rebalancing that has been underway as we settle down to something that is more sustainable and healthy growth with more tame inflation pressures, even Price Reductions for some categories. 20 think about the economy from a nonmall when you think about the economy from a nominal perspective, we are shifting gears but to sustainable growth. I think a lot of people miss back, this idea that we have to shift gears and it will be ok when we do it. Alix i am going to piggyback on what guy is saying. If i am a barometer for the consumer, i am only spending on majorly discounted items. I am spying those things super on sale and storing them for christmas. I refuse to spend on anything those full priced that i do not need that if i am representative of that, what does that tommy about the economy . Tell me about the economy . Michelle that will lead to lower inflation, which is quite desired. But i think what you are describing does resonate with a lot of people. I think the Retail Community is preparing for that. There were a lot of Lessons Learned the last Holiday Season. When we look at our the insights of how consumers spent last Holiday Season, it was fits and starts, focused on moments when promotions were most attractive. Last Holiday Season, healthy start around october with a lot of promotions, the weakening in early november, big burst of activity around black friday, softening again and it burst at the end for those who procrastinated in terms of spending. That is a consumer that has choice and an economy that will see softer inflationary pressure. Guy what happens in january . Student loans will kick in. We have seen a lot of credit cards in the runup to christmas. How does the beginning of next year look . I am hearing people worrying about q4 and the beginning of next year. What happens after christmas . Is this the last big business we will see for a while . Michelle we always have to be on alert. There is a number of speed bumps we have to prepare for. We have to focus on what is happening in terms of overall expansion in terms of how companies are investing in labor, in capital, in i. T. That has continued despite expectations that it would not persist. And hwo consumers get this Holiday Season will tell us a lot about the state of the economy in january, but i expect this to come out of this with steady growth potential. Alix my take away as still spending, but it is contained. Michelle, good to see you. Thanks. Time for wall street beat. They look at what is buzzing on wall street and in banking and finance. Instacart, ipo at 30. Closer to opening in the first trade. What do we know so far . Sonali pricing indications indicate a healthy ipo pop. The market started out muted today, news for instacart there is such little ability to buy new shares. These ipos are getting some hefty love at the beginning. Pricing is indicating give or take 38. 80, almost 39 a share. Spread tends to narrow into opening. We expected to open in an hour or so, sometime around noon or 12 30 we are getting closer, healthy ipo. More than 9 million, almost 10 billion in market value. Yes, it is about a fourth of where it was at its peak valuation in 2021, it is above where a lot of early investors bought in any less than 8 billion valuation funding round a couple of years ago. We are watching those investors. They are the ones who need to shore up some dry powder at this point. Guy all much is going out the door . How much will be retained by existing investors . Sonali if you do not revolve the first day, it tends to not instill confidence. Tomorrow, is interesting. Clay neyo is pricing right before the fed decision. You have a lot of elements of variability introduced into the market beyond the shareholders themselves and what they are taking on the plate today versus tomorrow. The interesting thing about the early shareholders if you have to think the about them coming in his cornerstones as well. Your point, how it is today versus the end of the week is a big deal. You take one of the bigger ipos of the year, it has been trading sideways all year. We are getting excited about these ipos last week, this week but we really have to watch them. That pipeline of ipos hitting q1 of next year before the election cycle, they are waiting for the Risk Appetite to be maintained. Alix who wins . Which Investment Bank . Sonali moment goldman has been taking a big page out of the playbook. If you think about the uber days, you had Morgan Stanley leading the charge in tech listings. My sources tell me these investments are now paying off. We will see if morgan saget stanley gets a with goldman in the. In the lead. Guy as that person happens, we will bring you the details. We are getting back into the groove. Sonali basak, thank you. Coming up, the european close and jens stoltenberg. He will join Annmarie Hordern at the u. N. Weve just been hearing from the president. This is bloomberg. se fue la luz pero todavia tenemos wifi para hacer las tareas. ¿y eso es algo bueno . Wifi y estudiar. Buenisimo. Wifi y pedir una pizza online seria buenisimo. Presentamos storm ready wifi. Solo de xfinity. Ahora puedes mantener una conexion confiable durante apagones, con datos celulares ilimitados y bateria de respaldo de hasta 4 horas para mantenerte conectado. Obtenlo solo con xfinity. El hogar del 10g network. Enterate mas hoy. Hi, im jason and ive lost 202 pounds on golo. So the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, yeah, whatever. Theres no way this works like this. And threw it to the side. A couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. I was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. To avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. 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