Forum in southern portugal. A warm welcome. It has just gone 7 00 here in london this monday morning. We have big interviews. The former italian Prime Minister will be joining us for an exclusive conversation coming up after 8 00 london time. And a check on the impacts of the Ukraine Russia crisis. We will also be speaking with the cfo coming up in an hours time. Back to our top story. Elected billionaire as president. Ryan has the details. Poised to winut the vote. 1 5 of votes are counted. Exit polls show him winning with a convincing lead. He is an experienced politician. The minister and has navigated ukraine through various president s. He is also a billionaire. I spoke with him just after he got off the stage. He was like a businessman and very optimistic. Its a great opportunity. To build and demonstrate my partners have succeeded in a short time. Ukraine should be and would be a paradise not only for ukrainian people. Also for investors. It is not investors but separatists they will have to deal with. The sundaymost of destroying ballot boxes in the east of the country. The fighting continues between ukrainian troops and separatists. Have to find a common language with president putin. I asked how important it was to sit down with president poroshenko. I think we find a format to help us solve the problem we have with russia. Would be the date . Presumably sitting down with the russian president. I think that would be possible, most probably together with our american and European Union partners. Real sense that many of the voters here in ukraine chose mr. Parrish and go parrish anka poroshenko. You have to get more than 50 of the votes. The official count was 1 5 of the votes. He has 54 . The second vote wouldnt have happened until the 15th of june. A lot of people were concerned the country needs stability, needs a president. Needs a commanderinchief to deal with the crisis it is facing in the east of the the violence. With the crisis in the east and the violence in our minds, that is one of the first inc. He needs to handle. He says he is going to visit that part of ukraine. How free was a voting . You mention some of the activity around the ballot boxes. It wasnt free at all. There were very few pockets where people could actually vote in the east of the country. Affectivelyters were denied their ability to vote in the area, not just werese the separatists destroying ballot boxes, but in general wholesale shutting down access to polling stations. Very few polling stations work. Those that were open many were too fearful to go to them. Its going to be difficult to win some type of peace. He has already said he is prepared to turn ukraine into a federalized state. It is very much unified. Russia would like to see a devolution of power. Poroshenka says he is prepared for more of the decisions to stay in the east of the country. It is the industrial heartland of ukraine. Not unlike detroit, it is very dilapidated region. Some of the problems are as economic as they are political in nature. He is ready for talks and says he will talk to anybody who does not have blood on their hands. It violence continues, and has been very violent in the lead up to the vote that took place yesterday. Far right parties in france and the u. K. Took unprecedented first place in elections for europes parliament. Turnout was up slightly, and the result will shake across europe. Hans nichols joins us from berlin. Did any of the establishment parties have a good night . He came in at 41 . He would be almost the clearest winner and all this. Notyone else had an awful, so good night. You almost have to look at who had the worst night. Take a look at the united kingdom. David cameron comes in third place. Nick clegg its only seven percent of the votes. In france. 2526 , and you look down at the , and it is mr. Sarkozys old party. Then 14 . 14 . This party gets will shake brussels. The question is will it alter what brussels is doing . He tried to hand this was going to be a sign of further changes to come. Until now, european integration always seem to be inevitable. I think the inevitability will tonight. These results overall it was the centerright party that came in at 212. These are preliminary. Party and theht centerleft party could form a coalition to get together and run the parliament and have parliamentary president , but there is a lot that needs to be determined. Parties in power need to reconcile with the fact that they are not very popular right now and voters are apparently quite upset and willing to throw them out. Who is likely to be the next eu commissioner . Great rarity. It looks like jeanclaude yunker juenker could get the job. Its supposed to be not binding but influence the national elections. Basically you have the heads of state of those countries picked the eu commissioner president. It looks like if everyone holds could be the next president of the eu commission. We will have further analysis of election result in europe and an exclusive interview later this morning when the former italian Prime Minister will be joining the team. That is just after 8 00 u. K. Time. Mario draghi is set to speak at the ecbs first for him. Is this their answer to the jackson hole . They are certainly giving it a go. Than much more important what the fed has done. Probably lightyears behind. What would they do today . Mario draghi is going to deliver a speech. I would say even if they were not on holiday this would be the the markets. He has lifted the bar so high for expectations as to what the ecb might do. Clues. Ust looking for what are they going to deliver . What are the options available . Onif we look at what is left the table for central banks, just look at rates. Rates are already at zero. You can trim both of those. 90 of economists think that is what is going to happen in june. The big question is whether for me theyond that. Big question is our expectation is so high even a rate cut would be a disappointment for this market. Use of the euro sounding off from around one dollar 40. Much of that is on ecb expectations. What are they expecting . Are they expecting a rate cut or something more . If you want asset purchases you might have to wait. That could be a disappointment for a lot of people in this market. Expectations are high. He commented. He said people are clearly disengage. The ecb is very mindful. They say jobs are vital for and jobs arerowth vital. He sees that as the best generator of peace. Feels a great weight of history on europe right now. He think these questions being posed are thorny questions for central bankers. What is he going to do about it . Been up one percent, below one percent since october. If they had a labor market that is much affected maximum unemployment, it would be way off because unemployment is at a record high across many of these countries. Itll have become this in franchise. They didnt just pose questions for the european partner. Coming up, as mario draghi host the first ecb for him in the hills, we will take a look at the topics that may be topping the agenda. Thats next. Pfizer is said to be near abandoning its bid for astrazeneca. The deadline to make a firm offer arrives today. The drugmaker is expected to announce they wont pursue the bidder any further according to a person familiar with the matter. General electric pledged to keep the Nuclear Operations in france. E is seeking approval last week ge agreed to a government request to suspend the deadline by three weeks. Form two ventures to start making and selling playstation gaming consoles in china as competition continues. 17 stake ine a one venture and 49 in the other. Videogame console makers are expanding after authorities and ban. Ban ended a we have plenty of elliptical news on europe. A look at the economy. Berkeley senior economist joins us from frankfurt to take a look at the big stories coming out of the eurozone. Thank you for joining us. Taking a look around europe, do you see anything in the strong showing we have seen from the far right hard use in these opean bright parties right parties that will change were europe heads from here . I dont think it is going to have a big impact on our shortterm outlook on europe. The economy going, especially in france, but in europe we have high unemployment see the voter can being fed up with the current situation. Do you think the ecb is holding a for them in port in portugal . Rum do you think we will get an idea of what Monetary Policy might look like . That is going to be a very speechbeach ecb ecb president druggie will deliver in portugal. A couple months ago he outlined contingencies under which the ecb would act. He says the ecb feels comfortable acting. Expectations are running very high. If president is druggie is going to show more concerned about the risk of aboution, more concern inflation expectations, those are the two conditions under which he said the ecb would givee more open to substantially more Monetary Policy stimulus, which could mean going beyond Interest Rate cuts. Does have aghi history of going off script and making big statements when he does. This is not an ecb meeting. It doesnt mean we wont get any news. What do you think really is on his mind at the moment . I think his biggest worry is europe could slip into a situation we have in observing in japan where you have economic stagnation, low inflation. That would be very difficult to sustain in europe where we have states struggling with sustainability. That is a big issue for the ecb. The mandate is to keep inflation below two percent. He also made clear several the inflation target is symmetric. That helps with dealing with the debt overhang. Also it is again in a situation where you have low growth and low inflation. It comes. Difficult to deal leverage from the public sector. It becomes difficult to deal with the public sector. Impact inflation expectations, pushing out the risk of deflation, which i think would be very dangerous to the eurozone. Are talking from germany. What is your take on the German Economy at the moment . It is very integrated with german supply chains. If people are worried about slowdowns in china or the resilience of the recovery in the u. S. Do you see any resilience in the german story as a result . We have seen some fairly weak export data. Coming fromnot much the rest of the world at this stage. Exports have been relatively , but germany is a lucky position that domestic demand is very strong. It made up for external weakness. It was boosted by be nine weather conditions that helped construction sector. At this point the German Economy is doing very well. There is a huge divergence across the eurozone. We have seen stagnation like france. It complicates very much Monetary Policymaking. Thank you for joining us. Berkeley senior economist joining us from frankfurt. Is ukrainian billionaire a set to win the elections. We will be speaking with the minister just coming up after a short break. More from that region. Welcome back. Time in london is 7 24. Korainian candidate polochen is set to win the election. We are going to be speaking with the economy minister of ukraine, his first meeting with the media since we saw this victory last night, indicating he will win without a second. Ound thank you for joining us. It looks like we have a clear win in the first round. Have. Ks like we are you happy as the economy minister with the ukrainian peoples choice . Good for theenko economy . I am happy there was free and fair elections. I am happy they get to elect their president. I am happy they will have a strong counterpart backed by more than 50 in the first round. Is it market positive . I think it is market positive. Of the about the impact economy overshadowing things . We have an antiterrorist operation to deescalate the situation and bring back order and bring those guys under control. You quantify . We will see that later. Is west important thing need also to engage the people who live in the region into policymaking. That is why the government has launched the international roundtable. The legal local leaders, business leaders, so we develop a common policy. When do you think the problems in the east can be resolved . I think major issues can be resolved quickly. Weaponsy need is some that are now dispersed among the people. These have to be surrendered pretty quickly. Quickly that is done depends. Going into a conflict with russia, are you expecting a supply cuts at the beginning of june . I expect negotiations with russia knowing our russian counterparts, i think negotiations are expected to pick up. Figure out a common solution. Are you ready to repay your debt . President putin says you have 3. 5 billion. We are ready to repay. They are saying they want to charge you 486. What do you anticipate paying russia some of the money you owe it . It is the intermediates. Tell me about your international currency. After you got the money from the imf and the announcement of the deal, we didnt really see a strengthening of the currency. Do you think on the back of this election we can expect a strengthening of the currency . Why thebut i think markets got more nervous is the situation. Under control. The government has said they anticipate an Exchange Rate of 10 and a half to the dollar. Governmenthat the eggs about this is one thing. They are the youth see with the government thinks about this . Meetings or events or decisions being made of consequence . Absolutely. Understand all of the emergency measures we have to in order to employ unpleasant financial outcomes we are taking back in march and april. Basically doing something very important. We need to pass lots of laws through the parliament so investors can feel a better condition. We wish you all the best in that. I am going to try to move in. Thank you for your time. That was ukraines economy minister in his first interview with International Media since we got those exit polls isicating that poroshenko poised to become the next president. Lets talk currency is now. Fors get to Jonathan Ferro the currency check. The eurozone is the only gainer in town. The u. S. Is off. London is off. Eurodollar is down close to 1. 40 in a month. If the inflation outlook worsens we are comfortable acting in june. Comfortable doing what . That is what we want to learn. Any clues what the ecb might be doing . The ecb chief speaks at their first economic for him. Theirould like to call it version of the jackson hole. That happened that 9 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Thank you very much. These are the top headlines. Poroshenko ascted president. Of the eastern part of the country did not vote. Gains. Parties racked up the biggest antieu victory came in france, greece, and the u. K. The u. K. Independent party won the election in britain. Thailands king has endorsed the military to despite protests. Thailands Army Commander will name an interim Prime Minister today, four days after the government was overthrown. The new European Parliament will when its work at a time leading eurozone politicians are convinced the economic crisis is over. At least as far as the economy goes, my next guest says that is not true. We are joined to the director of the center for International Political economy. Very much thank you for coming to talk to us. What do you think the new priorities for the parliament should be . The economy itself like you are suggesting should be their priority. Still in a very poor economic situation. Unemployment is still extremely high. Economic growth remains anemic. Whenever set up we are going to have in the European Parliament, the European Commission the first ird for them would have to be to get the economy around europe to work much better. The First Priority for them would have to be to get the economy around europe to work better. You dont think the extremist donttist votes, you think that is going to have a . Irect influence on policy why do you downplay the ability of these groups to influence policy . First of all, we are talking about a very Diverse Group of politicians and political parties. Secondly, they have gained seats , but takenpe together they are still far too small to have any influence on the shape of policies coming out from ruffles, but more importantly, i dont think they are going to brussels in order to influence policy. They are going there to about what they want to do in their home countries. I dont think they are going to come there to be part of the machine the European Parliament really is. I think the main conclusion going out is that we are to find the centerleft and the centerright having to cooperate much more than they have done in the past, but that is not a big change from what we have seen in the last five years. Is that going to be the extent to which brussels is listening to these votes . Do you see any Lasting Impact on the way brussels does business on the type of European Union we have . That remains to be seen. Were going to have a far more coverage in it political situation in brussels in the last five years and we have in the past five years. We have other challenges, like the u. K. Is going to have a National Referendum and wants to renegotiate the terms of its membership. Also seeing other established parties around europe like Angela Merkels christian democrats are in holland they are also starting to find anterested different sort of working order in brussels where powers are going to be sent back to Member States and they want to see more reform. The rise of the populist and extremists, we are going to see a slightly different tone coming out of brussels in the last five years. I dont think its going to be a big earthquake. We are talking about a complete revision of what brussels is sort of a complete new accord between Member States and brussels about national sovereignty. It might be early, but is it possible to read anything about this election into the Scottish Independence referendum . Some analysts suggest you might be able to take these results and draw some conclusions or speculate as to what might appen in september . It is always difficult to say. What we most cert