Antitrust laws, the largest fine in corporate history. A very good morning to you. Welcome to countdown. I am mark barton. Also coming today is your Smart Television passing your conversations on to private parties . First, the risk from greeces standoff with the eurozone grow by the day. That is the view of George Osborne. He has been speaking to bloomberg at the g20 meeting in istanbul. Greeces future in the eurozone is high on the agenda. The danger of greece leading to a bad outcome is increasing. He said the risks to the World Economy and british economy are also growing and he is urging other countries attending the g20 meetings to find Common Solutions. In an injury in an interview with bloomberg in istanbul osborne talked about the risk and how he is planning to deal with any outcome. It is clear the risks to the World Economy, the risk to the british economy on the standoff of the eurozone and greece is growing each day and i think the risks of the miscalculation or misstep leading to a very bad outcome is growing as well. Here at the g20 we are urging all parties to this dispute to try to find some Common Solutions. We are also stepping up our preparations for whatever the outcome may be. We have to make sure that the british people are best protected from whatever develops in this crisis. It is unclear the greek exit from the euro would be very difficult for the World Economy and potentially very damaging for the european economy. We have to be prepared for that outcome. We have to make sure that we choose a path of confidence and stability over potentially chaotic and disorderly exit. So the repercussions for the u. K. Could be harmful . There is no doubt that the u. K. Economy would be affected by a crisis in eurozone. We know that from recent experience. That is why we expect to protect ourselves at home and why it is right we step up our contingency planning. It is why it is absolutely vital we go on working to our economic plan so that we are taking steps to secure and strengthen our economy. The idea that britain or the rest of the world is entirely is not true. Writtens membership of the European Union is a hot political issue. George osborne told us that he wants britain to stay in a reformed eu with a referendum of membership 2017. We have made it clear that britain wants to stay in a reformed European Union. The European Union needs to change. It is a place where prosperity is created. We need to make sure the relationship between members of the eu who were not in the euro, like the united kingdom, is a fair one. Those are our priorities going forward. We say we will put this to the british people in a referendum. We said that referendum will take place by the end of 2017. As the Prime Minister said, if we can conclude the negotiations earlier, we would be delighted. Many have voiced concern that an early referendum could potentially speed up or cause a necks it cause an exit. What would you say to that . There has been a lot of talk in the media. Since we set out on a policy we have continued to receive a huge amount of investment into the united kingdom, more of much of the rest of europe but together. We are now a goto destination for competitive investors. It is a great place to start a business. Our european policy is about making sure the whole of europe is that, a place where business can grow and jobs can be created. What we want to achieve is britain in a reformed European Union that is an economic success story. U. K. s chancellor is looking ahead to britains place in the eu. The british chambers of commerce is having its annual conference of westminster. Anna edwards is there. George osborne highlighting the risks the u. K. Economy faces from greece. What is likely to be the reaction from the Business Community today . In the shadow of westminster we will see Business Leaders gathering here for this british chambers of commerce event. Greece will no doubt be one of the topics of conversation. We saw David Cameron meeting with representatives of the bank of england and treasury to talk about the fallout we could see from any escalation from the tensions surrounding greece in your. John longworth of the bcc will be talking about how currency unions can follow part and how britain can protect itself. Greece no doubt will be on the mind of the people. Very mindful of the trading relationship the u. K. Has with your. Wages getting on the agenda because David Cameron is expected to speak here and he will talk about how he wants British Business to give a prayerpay rise. The labour party has been critical of conservative support during the last parliament. They dont think we have seen sufficient wage raises. Mark carney talking about how we started to see wage increases coming through in the u. K. The conservatives want to take that criticism head on and call on business to do their bit. They want to suggest that business is the best generator of wealth and opportunity and theres no better way to show that than to give a pay raise to the u. K. Europe will be on the agenda as well. The shadow chancellor will be here flexing his proeuropean credentials. Youll will be saying there needs to be renegotiation with europe over the relationship with the u. K. If he says he says if europe walks away, that will be a disaster for the u. K. Economy. That was the biggest adverse risk facing the country, the fact that the conservatives have pledged they will hold a referendum on the u. K. s membership in the eu. Many columns have been written over the relationship between business and politics in the u. K. I guess there will be more of that today. There could very well be. Weve seen some of what you might call the usual suspects. Stewart rhodes, a longtime supporter of the conservative party in some form or another. He is the exboss of martin spencer. He and ed miliband believe they are in a 17th throwback. It was not just those usual suspects. Some other Business Leaders who had been speaking out in favor of labor in the past like some of the sainsbury family, they have not been so vocal in praising the labour party in recent weeks. We will be speaking to the shadow chancellor to see how much that matters if they are seen as a business party, and what are the policies they will fight that with. A recent poll shows the people they polled in this survey suggests that the conservative party as the best policy for business and conservative policy would be best for business. It also shows the u. K. Electorate has an appetite for the u. K. Government to stand up to business. All of that will be in the mix. Before then, we will speak to the british chambers of commerce. Anna edwards near the houses of parliament. Switzerlands biggest bank ubs, have reported earnings for lesser. Stronger than estimated. The bank also doubled its dividend. It is up from 917 million a year earlier. That was thanks to a tax gain of 493 million beating the average estimate of analysts. Sergio amotti is reorganizing the bank to focus on managing money managing. He is boosting the share to shareholders as some competitors estimates. In a few minutes we will be speaking to the man at the helm of the bank. Manus cranny will bring us that interview live and in full at 6 25. You can find more on that story at bloomberg. Com. Barack obama is taking a tough line on russia. The president s considering all options as violence escalates, including giving lethal weapons. It is true that if diplomacy fails, what i have asked my team to do is to look at all options. What other means can we put in place to change mr. Putins calculus . The possibility of lethal defensive weapons is one of the options being examined. I have not made a decision about that yet. Angela merkel visited washington yesterday. The german chancellor staunchly opposes sending weapons to ukraine but says europes differences with the u. S. Over lethal aid will not shake the alliance. The eu has delayed a fresh round of sanctions against russia ahead of talks for tomorrow. Hans nichols has been following that story. Good morning. What we see is a president who is very publicly weighing his options. There is not any doubt about Angela Merkels position, and she does not see a military solution to this conflict. Despite these differences merkel made a point of saying the two sides would make through their differences work through their differences. As to the export of arms, i have given you my opinion, but you may rest assured that no matter what we decide, the allies between the United States and europe will continue to stand will continue to be solid , even though on certain issues we may not always agree. The line coming out of the white house is that there is a tactical disagreement between the two sides. They are united on the idea to increase the cost for russia as it continues, as ukrainians allege to support the rebels in eastern ukraine. Ukraine has alleged in recent days that another 1500 russian army troops have crossed the border into eastern ukraine. Fighting his fears. At the same time, ukraine is facing an economic crisis. They have taken 17 billion euros from the imf. They may need another 15 billion to stay afloat. There will be talks in brussels later this week. The eu delayed implementation of sanctions on 19 individuals. That is to give a little more breathing room for talks. Merkel has hinted about additional sanctions. They could be sectoral sanctions if diplomacy does not make much progress in the coming days. Merkel, is she off to minsk before heading to brussels . Is an option. There is an option to have peace talks between merkel, whole on hollande, poroshenko, and put in. They want tangible talks to put the leaders had to minsk and have a big discussion. There is an eu summit in brussels weather could be additional sanctions. Thanks. Our International Correspondent hans nichols. Lets look at other stories we are following. Qualcomm has been fined a most 1 billion by chinese regulators for violating antitrust laws. They have agreed to pay 975 million, the largest fine in charges history. Chinese stocks have risen amid speculation that the first drop in inflation five years allows room for stimulus. Gold rallied on the news. Chinas slowing inflation as the 35th straight contraction in factory prices give policies extra room to further stimulus after cutting Interest Rates in november and reducing Bank Reserves requirements last week. Saudi arabia, the Worlds Largest oil exporter, has had the outlook on his Credit Rating cut to negative by Standard Poors as crude prices hit the nations growth prospects. S p says the kingdom relies on oil for 90 of its government revenue and could lose its aa Credit Rating in two years should its liquid assets lose value or fiscal position we can. You may have seen this transasia crash. It shows how close to turboprops came to what could have been an even worse tragedy. The wingtips past less than a meter from the building. At least 40 people died in the crash with at least three people unaccounted for. 15 people survived the disaster. Berkeley is planning to raise pay for junior investors as the Company Seeks to remain talent. Some barclays junior employees are set to receive an increase of 20 40 in salary and bonuses. The plan has prompted midlevel employees to voice their unhappiness about the compensation gap with her juniors. If you have a samsung Smart Television, you might want to be careful what you say in front of it. The television can transmit user data to third parties when the Voice Recognition feature is activated. Certain critics have compared it to the telescreen in George Orwells 1984. A couple of the trending subjects today, delhi and modi conceding an overwhelming defeat in indias capital. His first setback at the poll you there i am. Coming up after the break, i will be discussing those chinese inflation figures. What we want to achieve is britain in a reformed European Union, European Union that is an economic success story. Welcome back to china. Welcome back to countdown. [laughter] lets turn to china. We are not in china. Also rates policy rates being cuts. Lets bring in the head of macro strategy at aviva investors. We just interest growth in five years. We have had factorygate for five months in china. Does it lead to further monetary easing . Yes. If you put it in the context of what is going on, theres a structural reform progress, a largescale shifting. It is the way china does business, if you like. That is slowing the country down. That is going to continue to slow down and that combined with the disinflationary forces were seeing globally partly because of the oil price but partly because of commodities and everything else, that that slowdown is compounding. The chinese authorities are trying to guide the economy on a glide slope so to speak. They know it is slowing down but dont want it to slow down too much. Stuff like the day we had today will continue to reinforce only that they have to come up with the occasional targeted support policy to stop the economy from slowing too much. As you are right to point out, i think that will involve breakups. Rate cuts. The debate about the u. S. Raising rates rages, doesnt it . Especially in light of fridays blockbuster u. S. Job reports. Midyear rate hikes still on the table . We are going off of q3 in june. More towards september. It is difficult for a policy maker to tradeoff what would traditionally be a sign that youve got to raise rates, they are too low, because the employment economy is doing very well, but inflation is very benign. If you strip out the shelter of cpi there goes deflation as all. Cpi is close to zero if you take out a combination. How much do they need to raise rates if inflation is that low . You would have to look through the oil price and go longerterm the economy is fine and we need to cut out the emergency rate level. There is nothing to suggest the fed should be ag gressive. We need to be prepared for a scenario where we may say 1, 2, maybe three rate hikes once they begin but then they stop is there is not the need for an extreme, strong rate cycle. It would not take much with that low inflation story to put the fed on hold or waitandsee mode. All would take would be to one or two weaker nubbers, which does not seem to be particular with the lower oil price, which is helping consumer confidence. One or two week members and people go, the fed should do nothing because inflation is so low. The burden of proof is on the data they should move rather than what they shouldnt. Does it hedge the dollars performance the last few weeks . After fridays report, biggest oneday increase for the bloomberg dollar spot index in three months. It has been a little bit lower, hasnt it . It is at a record high against 10 currencies. The currency, the long dollar trade is ita broadly believedin trade. We have had a long run. If there is any question about the size of the fed move, which the mark was starting to contemplate because some of the data outside of payrolls has been softer than people were expecting, then that sort of kills the strong dollar story, particularly coming off such a dramatic move. If the valuations are extreme, it is not surprising the market goes, we will wait and see and we would like to see the color of that money before we move further. Lets talk about the color of your money when it comes to greece. The finance minister goes to the finance ministers meeting with what seems to be an idea of some sort of 10 billion euro bridging arrangement. Let us extend our holdings of treasury bills let the e. C. B. Give us 2 billion it is made from Holding Greek deck. It is a reaching arrangement isnt it . Merkel does not seem to be biting. The french finance in us finance ministers seems to be saying, give them a bridging loan. Will it be february were greece runs out of money in the loan erruns to its end . Take the statements to parliament you are getting over the weekend in greece. They were real fightingtalktyp e stuff. You are not going to get anything else. This is the first big boilerplate speech after being elected. They are not going to turn around and say we will not stand up to what we said we would do. The european wants to play hardball. They want to make sure greece toes the line. Equally they have a vested interest in one greece to stay in the eurozone. A compromise has to be found. It is a very european way, this sort of public debate going on and using the media to have an argument, almost. And then they sit down and eventually come up with some sort of compromise. I think that that is the most likely outcome. But what i would say is that the risks of an accident are starting to go up because as that brinksmanship escalates the fact that someone, somewhere, goes, you know what . We are not going to go the sensible path. We will do something else. I dont think that is the most likely outcome. Far from it at this point, but they are increasing and that is what we have to watch. Charlie, good to see you. Lets focus on ubs. It is switzerlands biggest bank. It reported an increase in fourthquarter increase. Manus cranny is joined by the ceo sergio ermotti. A good day to you mark. A dividend play out that is been raised by 100 and a payout revenue that will make the germans happy. Joining us live is sergio ermotti. Great to have you with us live. There is a phrase that comes to mind. The skate philosophy. How sustainable escape vel ocity. How sustainable is this agenda . We completed our transformation last year. I think we still have the strongest Capital Position amongst our peers. We always say that when we reach our 30 10 rate, we would return capital to shareholders. We believe that the dividend is a sustainable base going forward. There is no iron he in the set of numbers. The Investment Bank is up 20 . 350