Was that i was not going to do. Terry, welcome, no better person to have ahead of thanksgiving. We have a lot to cover. David westin is off today, he is flying the friendly skies. I believe he thought as we do ireland, and fact. States three of french president s push to build a coalition against islamic state. After yesterdays meeting with president obama, he talked with angela merkel. Merkel said germany is ready to strengthen its military commitments and global hotspots to relieve the french forces. Nato is urging deescalation after the turkey shot down that russian warplane. They called for further contact between turkey and russia. Meanwhile, he would new york russian and new york that american diplomats met. Russia has rejected turkeys claim that the plane flew into turkish territory. Travelers will need to have patience over the holiday. Long lines will be the theme starting today. Security has been increased in the wake of the terrorist attacks. There are no specific threats. You can get more on these and other new story 24 hours today i day at the new bloomberg. Com. Matt futures appear across the board after a positive day yesterday. We can see what the stand, upures the mini contracts now. Dow jones minis up 48 points. Right now, the s p is at 2000. That is a futures watch, lets look at the index right now and see where we are as opposed to where we have been as far as highs. Dow jones, the closing high we have seen his 18,000. 18,000. About 1. 9 we are away from that in the cash trade. Were very close to these record highs. Check out the bloomberg terminal, show you this all the time, it is great to use futures and what the fed will do right now. Right now, theres a 74 chance of a rate hike in the december meetings. One cool piece of these charts is the probability tree which is a little confusing, but it is really fascinating. If you really look and see what it is telling us, a 74 chance at this meeting for a raise. If they do that, the 12 chance of a rate at the next meeting. They was an 80 chance stay put where they are. It is just a fascinating chart to look at. Look at future implied probability on the bloomberg chart. Some of the other movers in todays market, first off lets take a look at oil right now. Back, obviously the turmoil in the middle east has affected brentwood closely. You rewatch crude futures, coming down after a big day yesterday. Barrell. Some forecasters, hewlettpackard saying its forecast weaker than they were looking for because of pc and printer disappointment over the next quarter. Probably for our entire future right . Because who needs to use it printer that much. Actually, killing it today because of earnings in the reported quarter. Did way better than the street expected but also saying its Equipment Sales will fall 11 next quarter and about 7 next year. Watch these shares in todays trade. Stephanie you know what we have a talk about, this Holiday Season may not be bringing boom to many retailers. To jim or confidence was at its weakest in over a year. Options like amazons main same day delivery driving people away from brick and mortar and getting them to shop online. Your the eighth largest website in the world. You have parade tomorrow, black friday in two days from now. Talk to us about retail. What does it look like for you . Terry where the seventhlargest website, and moving toward six. With the consumer shops largely start to their phone, does the research and so they want to buy a new puffer jacket. When they do, hopefully macys will pop up. I can actually try it on, they can see the qualities what theyre expecting. Then they will decide if it will jacket in the store or on their couch. That is the way consumers are shopping today. Your first that, numbers talking about the consumer in general. With clearly seen this you that the consumer is buying other categories. Record automobile sales, Home Improvement has been doing extremely well. We are benefiting from the furniture sales, but theyre putting it in other categories. Were counting on them being in our category starting on black friday. Next five weeks how big of the sales between thanksgiving and christmas compared to the rest of the year . Terry it is huge, it is used, it is huge, it is so important we all of the great Holiday Season. Sois really unfair, work hard 12 months of the year but if we dont finish the year between thanksgiving and christmas really strong, the year will be tough. On the other hand, you can make up a lot of ground on the end of the year. The percentage has stayed pretty steady. There was a little shift because of the thanksgiving after black friday day has gotten longer. It has shifted into thanksgiving day, and our own case we open at 6 00 p. M. On thanksgiving evening. That 24 hour. , it is to the biggest day of the year. That is extremely important. All the way through december 26. 1 00 a. M. Friday at you will gear up with all the ralph lauren. H talk to us about how this trend will ever change. 94 stales sales list of the place in physical stores but that is down from 2014. Is that a trend that continues indefinitely . Ok, ae point it was a certain number of people always want to shop in stores. The way i just described the transaction, and large number of our consumers are women. I think that trend will continue, but at some point it plateaus. Today, i think it is 92. 5 of all the things that we sell are sold in stores. 85 , aay that gets to longtime from the 80 . Still, the majority of the business with place in bricks and mortars. I see that trend continuing, and we will be benefiting with the strength of our online business. I definitely think having bricks and mortar will be critical to longterm success for retailers like ourselves. Stephanie eight of a trend is discounting. Earlier we sat down with the ceo of hudson say, he was most excited about their offprice retailing options. Do you agree . Terry it is another channel. Backstagetore called in that category. I would say it is just another channel. There is a consumer that is shopping, and it has been growth over the last several years. An important channel, but i think there is different customers that are shopping different ways. Just being in one category is not necessarily the right answer. Stephanie doesnt that cannibalize you . Full prices to pay anymore. You used to dictate for me that i had to pay full price. That is not the case anymore. Terry there are different qualities of product in different stores, it was no question about it. If you want first delivery of the latest fashion items, we talking about if you want her latest wrap dress that is being delivered for the fall season you should buy it when it gets there. By the time it does get marked down, it will be what is left. On the other hand, there was an offprice segment that was bought adjust for the offprice channel. That is actually made to got the door at that price. Obviously the quality will be very different. Stephanie you have a new challenge, those big brands that have made you so strong, like nike, now they can go direct to consumers. They have their own stores, so i dont need to go to macys. How do you get be there to get those first items when i can buy them directly from the designer . A great example, with sunglasses hut in our store, finish line in the mall, both of those businesses are doing extremely well inside our store without cannibalizing. They are getting incremental business with that model. Thattells you very clearly customers are choosing different ways to shop. Not every customer shops offprice, Shops Department store or online. There is a lot of departments that are loyal to individual channel. Josh if you think about the history of retail, you had to be a great merchandiser and no fashion. When so many of your sales are arene, and 80 of consumers influenced by digital media, how do you get the pallet you need . Competing against google, microsoft, hopefully bloomberg . Stephanie no one competes against a bloomberg. It is a very important focus for our company. Hire approximately 1000 College Graduates a year. Biggestes us one of the recruiters on campus. The concentrate at the university of pennsylvania, campusesa number of where we are the largest recruiter. You start there, getting great quality students. Number two, i moved the headquarters of our merchants to new york for a simple reason all of our vendors are here. I want the advantage of having my merchants walking down the street from 34th street to 7th avenue and actually deal with the ralph lauren, deal with calvin klein. While most of our competitors, most, are outside of new york city. Having said that, when we relocated macys. Com, i left all of my engineers, all of my software designers, all in san francisco. Weve created a new headquarters there because we had to expand and put a sign on top of the roof that said if you worked at macys. Com you would not be driving to Silicon Valley right now. The young people want to live in san francisco, downtown, and their driving to Silicon Valley. It is a great advantage for us. On the whole backside of what you see with all of our websites, i consider integrated vantage. Stephanie we are just getting started. Look at what terry is wearing today. He normally tells me hes wearing armani, right now, had to tell, the one and only ryan seacrest. Available at macys, by the way. We take a quick break, when we returned were going overseas talking russia and turkey. Itll be time for global go. Stick with us. Stephanie welcome back to bloomberg. Btt hasionaire ceo of been arrested in a growth and corruption scandal. No word with what Andre Estevez has been charged with. The scandal is already ensnared brazils biggest builders. And the staterun oil company. Ae worst commodity selloff in generation may not be over for a while according to blackrock, the largest money manager and the world. They tell bloomberg that commodities are headed lower. We are seeing a slowdown in demand, especially in commodities in places like china. Forecast disappointing as a standalone company. The pc and printer units were split this month into separate companies. The divisions that tell Equipment Services and software now known as hewlettpackard enterprises. Stephanie . Stephanie now it is time to return to global go, we focus on tensions between russia and turkey after a russian fighter jet was shot down in the syrian border. Has moved ton reinforce operations in syria while turkey showed no signs of backing down. Our middle east editor elliott joint is now. Turkish and russian counterparts are both speaking today, and it is not telling anyone is backing down. Elliott we have had some conciliatory words. Vladimir putin ruled out any kind of military retaliation. To place over syrian airspace, and the turks insisted to place over turkish airspace. They also heard from turkeys Prime Minister enable say there is no wish to escalate tensions between turkey and russia. Indeed, we heard from one wire service in russia that the Foreign Ministers of turkey and russia are set to meet in the coming days. Plus side. On the brushes will be to reinforce space in syria. Turkey is moving tanks to the border with syria as well. Turkey is insisting it was within its rights and that the airspace had been breached. Also that russia needs to stop a bombing in area in Northern Syria where they would dissented from turks themselves. Certainly a war of words at the moment. If you think about is going on in the world, what is scary is the potential conflict between russia and the United States. The United States has flown the vast majority of airstrikes in syria, and iraq. Whats going on to prevent conflict between the two over syria . Elliott you have the nail on the head. Right now, that is still somewhat off. We heard from obama he already spoke with turkey. Hello nato members trying to defuse tensions. The russian said they would embrace a french proposal to close the syrian Turkish Border to cut off some of the supplies to islamic state. Certainly, the russians think this was preplanned, premeditated. They said that nato has helped turkey to cover up what happened with the downing of its jet yesterday. A Russian Foreign minister posed or not then whether u. S. Knew before hand. Certainly, the russians to the hand of america behind all this. No sense it is will escalate into a military conflict between turkey and russia or russia and the u. S. Stephanie the white house continues to urge both russia and turkey to stand down. We will be covering the situation throughout the day. Now, lets talk to Terry Lundgren again. I want to stay international, we have to go china. The last 30 days youre been telling to china for the first time. How is this going . Terry we just began, we Just Launched our site with inventory being held in china. We have been selling to 70 countries for the last couple of years, but is a Small Business because you have to pay shipping business and duty. Now we have the shipping to china, and were doing that with our partners. Have a joint venture relationship because their Logistics Systems based in hong kong it is brandnew. Are finding out what the Chinese Consumer wants from macys. It is very exciting. Items the fastest selling were home furnishings. In particularly, shoes and towels and high thread count sheets. Interesting, you would think they would have that product. Arestly, the quality we offering is so high, and so good, that the consumer has grabbed onto this and it is been our bestselling product out of the box. Stephanie did that surprise you . I thought it will be the celebrity brands. Terry i wouldve thought that as well. It is just beginning. It is all brandnew for us. We are not marketing the site aggressively because we did not want to overpromise. Inyou get a big demand spike china, you could be out of inventory in a hurry. It is a good problem, but i wanted to manage this intelligently. I was surprised to the textile business was the winner out of the box. Josh the Chinese Consumer hears the word product and think and things prada luxury. What do you want them to associate with the macys . Rry the fact is, we have Americas Department store. We have that recognition and that reputation. People understand we have the brands, with a large of seller of the major brands that you know. We offer great value, that is what people think about whether think about our brand. The tradition of american retailing, the greatest designer brand said the world, and that value. Stephanie does this hurt your ability to be nimble . Given how fickle the consumer is. You have more inventory than any retailer out there, how do you protect yourself . Terry re talking china now . Stephanie were going back to america. We just brought in best buy. We are constantly changing what is inside of our box. Were thinking about what the consumer wants her macys. We just signed a license with lenscrafters. As the population ages, theyre looking for better sight. Are constantly theing at new ways to make story itself, and the shopping environment more relevant to more consumers. We are always looking at adding electronics. We are selling more fitbits today and most people are. We always looking for these new opportunities. Bringing new branded here stores is expensive. The Capital Expenditure associated, how do you help your team decide . Terry first of all, on the product itself, we are a test and learn organization. Tens of ideas of major ideas within our store right now but you dont know about. Most people dont know about because we doing it in experimental locations. Then, when we get a bite and some traction, then we go with our decision. At least half of what we test we never rollout he doesnt did not connect with consumers. That is how we begin. Ive already made the decision of were cutting back our Capital Investments for next year. Thisll spend 1. 2 billion year, we will spend less than a billion dollars next year. Cut . Anie what gets start to saying the sides of the business determines that we should spend less than a billion dollars. Then i say next fund of the growth ideas. Fund the on the channel consumer, macys. Com, make sure you are funding bloomberg which is been a great acquisition. We now spanning it and have Beauty Stores as well. Backstage, the off price business, 50 new locations in the next two years. We just opened up six. What wego back and say will use to fund the renovation of our stores, or the new stores, that is what ends up falling to secondary decisionmaking as opposed to the growth ideas first. Stephanie what is your best idea right now . The expansion of the beauty concept. We are a dominant place you thinking about fragrances, you will be thinking about macys. With the largest seller premier fragrances in the country, bar none. Buyingre thinking about a fragrance, youre probably thinking about buying from macys. Stephanie we will be back with more. Welcome back, youre watching bloomberg. A very special day, no one better one day before the parade. Two days before black friday, macys ceo Terry Lundgren and bloombergs head of industry verticals josh steiner. It is time for morning mustread. It is our favorite bowtie wearing aficionado, tom keene joining the party. Tom the macys prego tried by the house. Higher, kimi go back to when it was higher . Feel that you both way because your 611, im all right because im down further. Bonnie . You like the parade exactly where it is. Bonnie i like the balloons were they are. In chicago, hundreds of protesters marched last night over the killing of a black teenager by a white police officer. On the teenagers 16 times, and has been charged with murder. Thats the first time that has happened in decades. And of the man is in the paris terrorist attacks. So far authorities have arrested five people meanwhile, that unprecedented locked out of brussels is coming to an end. What planetf is halfway to Dangerous Levels of global warming. Of 2015age temperature babita last years record. The average temperature for this year will be one degree above the benchmark mean temperature. After a two degree increase, Climate Change coul