Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20161007 : vimarsana.com

BLOOMBERG The Pulse October 7, 2016

Weve got a great show lined up for you today. At 9 30 we have our special Weekly Program brexit, what is next . Our panel will round up a dramatic week for the u. K. Next line the ftses rally. We bring you all of the political news as the country plants its exit. At desperate forget to all of that, lets take a quick check on what is happening. The big story is sterling today. It dropped more than 6 in two minutes. 12455 1. 2455. It did drop as low as 1. 18 41 and one point. The ftse 100 pointing higher, up. 5 . Still well above the 7000 mark. A lot of the gains in the ftse have the currency effect of a weaker sterling. By. 5 . X 600 down just to take a check on the 10 90r gilt yield, where at basis points there. Lets switch of the board and take a look at another essay class. The dollar up for a fifth day. Desk that its of the ahead of the jobs data we are getting out of the u. S. Later. The market beginning to price in that fed rate hike in december. We are seeing its longest rally since may from the bloomberg dollar index. Taking a look at the 10 year treasury yield, weve got a sixth day of gains. Up one basis point. Gold unchanged. We have been seeing a weaker gold price, near a fourmonth low. That is on the growing expectation for a third rate hike. I near a fourmonth high as well. Those are your markets. We got breaking news for you. Norways wellfunded returning 4 in the Third Quarter as a stocks are gaining. Well keep across that and bring you anything more on that as we get it. This get to the burke first word news with markus karlsson. Deutsche bank is holding talks with a Security Firm to explore options including raising capital should mounting legal bills require it. They say Senior Adviser are speaking to representatives of the german lender about ideas including a share sale and asset disposals. An reports the bank is ipo of its Asset Management units. Deutsche bank declined to comment. Chinas Foreign Exchange reserve declined to a fiveyear low amid culation the central bank the pbo see says stockpiles just below economists estimates. Japan needs a double dose of monetary and fiscal stimulus including further easing next month. So says honda, one of Prime Minister of is Prime Minister abes advisers. It is the biggest reason confession is not risen to the Central Banks target of 2 . Hurricane matthew is said to be the strong this storm and one of the costliest to hit the United States since 2005. It is then down on floridas is coast forcing Nuclear Reactors to shut creating fuel shortages and threatening to knock up electricity. The category four storm with winds of 130 miles an hour is expect to make landfall near Cape Canaveral and then track into the Atlantic Coast racking up as closest 50 billion in economic losses. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am markus karlsson. Nara nejra. Nejra it has been a brutal week for sterling as it hit a 31 year low, cap by a more than 61 move. E is a chart for the week the pound at its lowest since 1985. To make sense of this move is Christopher Langner. He judges from singapore. Christopher talk to us about whether it was computers the cause of this flash crash. That seems to be at the assumption which is why we saw that quick recovery and sterling. Christopher anything points to computers because of the speed at which it happened. Computers have increased the speed of trading and the speed of precious. If you look at the way the computers work, they will have a system that says you should sell when there is a move of 1 down. They will do it at the same time. That is when you have a flash crash. It is unlikely that a fat finger alone wouldve moved a pound by 6 . That is a cap that is a currency that moves in the hundreds. It was computers that pushed the flash crash. Nejra what can be done about this . Christopher i think it is time for regulators to step in and have a look at how computers skew the marketplace. There has been a lot of discussion about curbing traders. There needs to be a grown up in the room who says you guys are all operating together in the same way, and very fast and very efficiently. That is moving markets and causing this locations in the markets and the one we saw today. Everybody agrees the pound to be lower, but should move 6 in a matter of minutes . That is not how it market operates. Nejra thank you so much to Christopher Langner summing up that flash crash for us. An hour before that flash crash, bloomberg caught up with Philip Hammond who had this reflection on sterling. We do not target and Exchange Rate, therefore we have a Free Exchange rate. The market will make its judgment on the appropriate level of sterling at any given time. History tells us those judgments on move freely significantly fairly small provocation. Nejra lets welcome our guest for the first 20 minutes, valentin marinov. Great to have you. I want to show you, you can see this job we saw in sterling if you look over at my bloomberg. A more than 6 drop in two minutes. I so you reacting a little bit with what christopher was saying. Let me get your initial reaction. Colm valentin go valentin there was some people betting on the downside of trying to cheap in those bets by adding a barrier. Once in barriers get triggered, you have to pull out, right . That explains the short move higher. If you are short but then you have to take the money off the table, then it pushes sharply higher. That is when to compound the move. Another reason is we are also seeing a client wanted to use a downsized bet by using one touches or exotic structures on the downside to open the hold. The whole move may indicate maybe in the option market dumbly. Got more of what they wanted. As emily once in their targeting, make the money. It feels like there may be a period for the pound but the worry is [indiscernible] we still well below the levels of yesterday. Theyre still appetite to sell the pound. Francine given what happened overnight, does that affect any Technical Support levels . Just 85, 84 really. The, given fundamental outlook for the pound may be changing, where is until now, i was able to tell you the pound is selling off but at the same time, u. K. Stocks are up. U. K. Yields are down. That is a function of qe, but also a function of defined by foreigners, right . Why despite the weakness in the pound and uncertainty. We are seeing the selloff in the pound has coincided with an uptick in u. K. Yields. That is can that is concerning. If you are in a foreign investor also on the real asset, the fixed income, that is becoming a worry. It is the worry is compounded by the fact that the inflows into the fixed income markets are used to fund the u. K. Deficit. In other words, the latest development, not necessarily the flash crash, the combination of weaker pound, highyield, may pose worry. A disorderly move in the pound if a payment crisis becomes a risk. Pulse. Stay with the there is plenty coming up including jobs day usa. Traders pricing in more than a hike. 10 chance of a rate georges options with a possible fine of 14 billion from the u. S. Government, germanys biggest bank is set to start raising capital. We will bring you the story. An hour brexit special show, a dramatic week for the u. K. Ftses rally as all of the political news. This is bloomberg. Nejra you are watching the pulse. Am nejra cehic lets get the Bloomberg Business flash with markus karlsson. Samsung has posted betterthanexpected thirdquarter earnings. 5. 5 to 7ncome rose billion. Samsung did not specify the Financial Impact of the recall. Analysts estimate it could be between 1 billion and 2 billion. Delta lloyd has rejected nn groups offer. Conditions were not except. The head of the five euros and . 30 a share as a 29 premium. Shares and delta lloyd are trading higher on that news. Nordea bank proposed merging with abn amro early this year that is according to a person with knowledge. It wouldve been the biggest bank merger in europe since the financial crisis. Nor day it says it never comments on also declined to comment. Rio tinto says that mongolia will not receive any dividends from the giant mine for 10 years. The worlds secondbiggest Mining Company prioritizes an underground expansion. It will be one of the top copper mines in the world. Delivered any dividends to anybody. We should not forget that it is a longterm remember the underground is 80 devalue of the project. 80 of the value of the project. To be able to pay dividends, you need to be profitable. Until we get to a steadystate which is 10 years down the road, we will not pay dividend to anybody. Marcus that is your Bloomberg Business flash. They know nejra. Nejra it is jobs day in the u. S. Investors will be focusing on the numbers out at 12 00 noon u. K. Time. Rate jumped to 64 ahead of those numbers. Valentin marinov is a still with us. Let me start with this chart on the bloomberg, the best thing on the fed. What is tracked is the odds of a fed rate hike in 2016. Going up along with it. You think we are going to see a little bit of Dollar Strength in the next three to six months . The dollar will continue to rally until the year and as we expect the fed will hike in december. That is the ascension that Hillary Clinton will be the new u. S. President. A potential trouble of victory may change all that. Thats a potential Trump Victory may change a potential Trump Victory may change all of that. What is encouraging in the rest of the move in the rates market is the renewed the fact that investors are pricing in that only a december hike but more for hikes but more hikes further down the road. You is important because if which was the biggest driver of dollar trade over the last two or three years. There was a spread between the two year the slope of the. Hort end of the u. S. Curve it is a robust driver. Nejra beyond that, are you thinking the yield curve is going to continue steepening oh you can see a steeper a flatter yield curve . Another development which will gain more prominence later next year, meaning beyond six months is the fact that the likes of boj, ecb will be starting to run other functions to ease further. It is considering a domestic economy but at the same time, it has to Pay Attention to the impact of policy it is having on the global economy. If draghi or continue to provide stimulus. It is tapering fears growing, those banks will start to expire. The fed will be the only central bank that could accommodate by hiking. It will be the only central bank with the ups now the to respond. Thats with the only option to respond. The only thing is the u. S. Yield. Urve likely to remained flat we dont think the dollar will be up to cycle hire. The taper fear, that escalates. Nejra valentin marinov, thank you so much. Up next, capital concerns. Deutsche bank is said to weigh its options. When will investors be put to ease . We discussed that next. This is a bloomberg. The first quote they came out at 37. 30 was a good confirmation of how the market value is market values it. It is going to be a bit of a ride today and maybe on monday. So far, it holds up and it is a good sign because we have a price we have not out price of the market. Were not disappointing in of our initial investors. I think that is a good start. Nejra that was peter terium. Today is green energy spinoff business. Deutsche bank is working on an ipo and its Asset Management unit in a bid to rebuild capital buffers. This comes as reports suggest holdingttled lender is informal talks with Security Firms to explore Crisis Management options including a capital raising. Lets bring in Lionel Laurent. How soon might Deutsche Bank move . Isnel i think the big issue we still dont know how much the final number is going to be . That really limits banks options. It could protect if you try and ways try and raise some capital. If youre able to raise 5 billion, it doesnt help you if the fed comes in at 10 billion. The real issue is telling a story to investors if youre relying on them to give you capital, then it is what we talked to say the story is we want to raise the money to pay off a fine. There are issues here. I am not sure how quickly they connect. The priority should be getting the final number defined and we can look at how to manage the crisis. Nejra if a look at Deutsche Bank shares today, theyre up 1. 9 . The shares have been resilient all week barring a little bit of a drop at the close yesterday. What you think is behind this . Is it the prospect of a tapering . Is this something individual . I think it is something individual. A value at play something that is hit autumn and real rebound and will rebound. The idea of assessment being near is what is helping investors geared toward the positive. Talk of asset shales talk of asset sales. Realistically, we are going to have to wait for the number. From a managerial number, i dont see how you can raise all of these issues without knowing what the number is went to be. Nejra what are we likely to get over the weekend . Meetingsis talks of with the u. S. Authorities with a lot of Public Policy makers encouragements to get to a number. Hopefully the market is going to be waiting for an announcement. We have had a before and they have not come to pass. Much tohank you so Lionel Laurent updating us on Deutsche Bank. Stay with the pulse. Our weekly show with the brexit, what is next . May gives currency gives clarity. We tie it all. This is bloomberg. Nejra welcome to our weekly brexit show live from bloombergs European Headquarters in london. I am nejra cehic, in for Francine Lacqua. We will make you smarter about what is best for britain, this is brexit, what is next. We are getting some Industrial Production numbers. Looking at month on month we are down 4 10 of 1 . The expectation was for a increase by 1 10 of 1 . Year on year was up 7 10 of a percent. Surveyalso a mess on a miss on a survey. If you look at the manufacturing production month on month, also a miss. Of 1 and we were expecting 4 10 of a percent. Coming in a little bit in line with estimates more or less. The trade deficit on the screen for you. At 1. 2436. E are we did have a bit of a flash crash overnight see sterling dropped more than 6 in asian trade, the biggest drop since x brexit. We have a little bit of a recovery since then. It did drop as much as 1. 1841. Its check in on where the markets are. I have already mentioned sterling and where we are with that. The ftse 100 Still Holding well about 7000. We sought hit that record high in the past few days, up 6 10 of a percent. If we look at european stocks, down 3 10 of a percent, down for a third day heading for the second weekly decline. We are keeping a close eye on the 10 year gilt yield. We are at 97 basis points now. As a roundup of the brexit stories, lets get to marcus paulson. Prime minister theresa may ended speculation on the timing of when the u. K. Would begin its legal exit of the eu. She declared the government thed trigger article 50 by beginning of 2017. Christine lagarde says it was a good step but the most important is still to come. The terms in which it will trade with europe, it is not yet really certain what it will be so we welcome to certainty about timing. Ascus sterling fell as much 6. 1 against the dollar earlier today, the biggest decline since the day that the brexit referendum results were announced, a move traders say were exacerbated by computer initiated cells off selloffs. Meanwhile, before the flash crash, Philip Hammond spoke to John Mickelthwait about the pound. We do not target and Exchange Rate level. We have a Free Exchange rate and the market will make its judgment on the appropriate level of sterling at any given time. History tells us that those judgments can move fairly significantly on fairly small provocation. News 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. Nejra two minutes of chaos in asian trading sparked a plunge in the pound to a 31 year low, with traders saying it was exacerbated exacerbated by computer selling orders. That is the biggest decline since the Eu Referendum result was announced. Lets introduce this weeks fol. Great to have you. We all remember what happened to sterling on the day of brexit. This wasad views that largely due to computers that exacerbated the selloff, but do you think there is something sinister . Ask the question, why are there so many sell orders in the system . We could be in for a decline. We have already seen a significant sterling move down in june as a consequence of the referendum. This has been a horrible week for sterling after what Prime Minister may has said. That has left sterling very vulnerable and we focus on the fears that sterling could have further to go. Fatnce this might have been fingers, we would suggest it is a vulnerability that is still in sterling. Nejra you do not think that shorts are getting too crowded . Jane it is difficult to say that given the Political Uncertainty that we face of the next couple of years. Brexit has not begun but i think with theresa may suggesting march is when article 50 is trig

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