Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20131127 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box November 27, 2013

Dont worry, they did this to me one time. This is lovely. These people are going to come out and theyre going to go, clear did you finally go around . You went through the lincoln tunnel . No, we didnt. We went around the whole round about. You had to come across the bridge, though. We came across the bridge, yes. Finally came across the gw. Yes. In 20 years, weve never done this, i dont think. Wow, you look good. This is really good. Amazing. Andrew probably how about the news except there was a big storm this morning. It is a bit of a mess out there. In fact, if youre planning on traveling that massive winter storm that dumped snow in the west is now pummeling the east with a lot of wet weather this morning. As you would expect, this is reeking havoc on some thanksgiving travel plans. Look out if youre on your way to work this morning, it is going to be a bit of a mess. Reynolds wolf will join us from the Weather Channel in just a moment. You look good. The dow and the s p hitting highs before losing in the final minutes of trading. And how about the nasdaq . The tech heavy index closed above 4,000 for the first time yesterday in 17 years. Managed to hold on, close at 4,017. Take all this together, you consider the thanksgiving holiday thats coming up and take a look at the futures this morning. Youll see the futures are indicated higher. Those dow futures up by 35 po s points. Nasdaq up by 3 points above fair value. At 8 30 eastern time this morning, we get weekly jobless claims and october durable goods. Coming up at 9 45, weve got chicago pmi. Also on the agenda, we have Consumer Sentiment and the leading Economic Indicators. Now for it all oh, i thought i was going to see it because i historically have done corporate news. They changed it in the final minute. They changed it recognizing because of the script. I know. The choppers were grounded . Choppers were grounded. Jeeve was out for thanksgiving. It was a mess out there. Started around 230 and around 3 30 in the morning it was even worse. Choppers are the word of the day. Between whirly bird yellen whirly bird yellen . Thats what i saw. Doug is back to sending out charts that compared this market to the 1929 market. But there was a great simpsons quote from mr. Burns who said i havent checked the markets in a while. Let me take a look here. I havent checked since 1929. Oh, no. Oh, no. In corporate news, shares of Hewlett Packard getting a boost after the tech giant posted betterthanexpected earnings in revenues. Were going to talk to an hp analyst. This is a little surprising, right . Isnt it weird the way the market is able to confound the consensus thinking . And i thought people thaw maybe the turn around wasnt going that well. Now here we are, back above 25 or so. And t. Rowe is another stock to watch today. Or you can tivo it and watch it later, right . Companies Quarterly Results beat the street. Helped by strong growth in cable, television subscriptions and crocs a big winner. The company is in talks with blackstone and other firms about a possible buyout. I have the canvas ones that ive told you about. Im not allowed to wear mine outdoors. Youve got a lot of rules. No cargo pants, no crocs. None in public. Probably wouldnt be that happy about you get ago bunch of makeup on the air, either. Well, we just did that, so i know. Info blocks reporting betterthanexpected earnings. But its projecting Earnings Results below expectations. Were going to come to you for analysis. I would like to do the analysis. Because we didnt think you were coming in. You just comment laughing like at your jokes. Funny man. Yeah. We mentioned the futures, but lets check on the other markets this morning. Take a look at oil prices. At least right now youre going to see oil prices down by about 40 cents. 93. 28. So you have seen a significant drop in gasoline prices. I think its down Something Like 69 cents aaa was saying over the course of the year. You are saying that be a big help for the consumer especially as we head into the shopping season. Take a look at the tenyear notoriety now. The tenyear is yielding 2. 73 . The dollar, lets take a look right there and youll see the trading, dollar down against the euro, almost at 1. 36. 1. 1. 3601. Up against the yen, 101. 76. Gold prices up by 11. 90. 1,253. 30 an ounce. This guy writes in, i seriously think that i get up earlier to watch andrews National Tv Show than andrew. Which and then he does a number, late again. But i mean, it was bad weather. It was bad weather. Did you consider just leaving a little early or anything to make sure you or did that come into the mix at all . I will admit i was running late this morning, too. I was running late. But would it ever occur to you that it might be difficult to cross the bridge . Or to get there on time. Id like to be there i was here on time. This guy gets up to prepare to watch the show before you do. We should have a conversation. We should do a we could tweet the show out, the preshow out starting about 4 15 n morning if people would like. I could have tweeted the anyway. Now for the winter storm, this is my story, Reynolds Wolf joining us from buffalo, though, this morning. Good morning to you, reynolds. Hey, good morning, twice. We had about id say anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of snowfall last night. If you happen to see my location, which is right along parts of i90, roadways are moving pretty darn well. Everyone going east sxo west and doing so at a decent speed. We have no reports of any major issues on this thorough fare. A lot of people in buffalo taking this. Stride. The big issue is not the snowfall, its over having the snowfall while people are trying to get from point a to point b trying to see relatives over the thanksgiving holiday. What we can expect for the rest of the morning is maybe another inch to two inches of snowfall from the morning to the afternoon hours and with lighter amounts possible in the following days. Maybe with some sunshine for thanksgiving. But, again, the system could have been a lot worse. It kind of broke apart. One part of it went to the southeast. The other part moving farther east as we see. All things considered, pretty easy doing in buffalo. Now lets send it over to and w andrew. Thank you, reynolds. I was living that life just two minutes ago. Yes, you were. And reynolds is decked out for work. Reynolds, we missed you. We havent seen you in a long time. Is that a bandanna he has around what have you going on around your neck there . Can they hear me . Yes, we can hear you. Oh, good. Its fly fisherman. This is called a buff. You normally use it when fly fishing so you wont get a hook in the back of your neck. But i found it works really well when youre skiing or doing these reports. I could use one of those. Im surprised that you, though, dont have a pocket square in that parka somewhere. I mean, i guess theres no pocket. Well, you see this. This is the pocket square. Basically they tack it on to the jacket. That works. You do seem a little bit i mean, the elements dont look that bad yet. Are you hoping it stirs up, reynolds . You have a lot of equipment and gear there for what looks to be a pretty routine morning. No . To be honest with you, its great to have crazy, tumultuous weather where no one gets hurt. Weather guys do. Yeah. I mean, were geeks like that. But seeing where it could really cause some danger to people, no one wants that to happen. No. And we need a good christmas season. We want people to be able to get out and spend their money and help the retailers, etcetera, etcetera and help the economy. Absolutely. Our coverage on the storm and impact is just Getting Started this morning. Among our guests, flight aware, this is a company that tracks airtime delays in realtime. I love on this site. Have you been on this site, too . Yes. If youre going to the airport today, if you dont have this app, you are in trouble. You have to know where youre going, how youre get there. This will tell you before the airline will tell you that the whole thing is messed up. These guys know. You are mr. Multi platform new era digital. Better than the planes themselves i mean the airlines themselves . Better than the airlines are at least going to tell you about. But theyll tell you where the plane is, how many minutes away it is. I think it was on nightly or something. The airlines dont want you to be there any more on so listen to your airline. And i thought, you know what . I dont feel like they the do tell me. It says the change of date and you look up and its like, it just seems wrong. And two minutes later over the intercome, change of gate. And the flight aware people seem to know. And at 8 10, we have a Top Executive from jet blue. Later were going to talk all things travel with aaa. Planes, trains and automobiles will all be covered this morning. Then doug cass says he did coin whirl by bird janet, but he showed that chart but he said to be fair, each generation hs a stock market crash and he says weve already had ours. But people do love the and charts that go up, if you compare any chart that goes up, its someone you cant help a couple of things look like they match. And then the one that we know goes like this doesnt mean, you know, it never i mean, its interesting to look at and you go, oh, but lets talk some more about that right now. Peter has some points on this. Peter is the lindsay groups chief market analyst. We are joined by david burson. Peter, you say youre growing increasingly concerned about the marketses. Why is that . The trigger for me was in the summer when Interest Rates started to head higher. We have a 2. 73 remaining yield. We know yellen is going to be as dovish as ben bernanke. So within that context, that has me more worried. When the fed eventually does, theyre going to be playing catchup. Is it a good thing if the market is doing this casually, rather than waiting for the news and watching the flood of everything moving at once . People are shoring up their positions, knowing this is coming. Yes. But we did have a flood over the summer. And the fed got concerned about that. That tenyear is something that a lot of fed officials told us theyre watching closely. Right. Weve seen a big slowdown in the housing market. Two weeks ago, Mortgage Applications to buy a home fell to the lowest of the year. Within that context, we have todays Institutional Investors says theirs fell to a record low in their survey. You have margin data as a percent of gdp approaching historic peaks relative to other major stock market peaks. And we have Earnings Growth that continues to slow. We have margins historically high. Those can stay that way. This margin can continue to rally. When the fed is doing what theyre doing, anything is possible on the upside. We play a game of probabilities. To me, the risk reward is getting increasingly dangerous right now because of the prospects of bullish sentiment outlook. When do you think the fed tapers . What are they looking for in the numbers . When do you think theyll get them . Well, you know, becky, theyre going to be looking at a lot of numbers, but theyre mostly looking at whats happening in the job market. We got a good number for payrolls last month. If we get 200,000, maybe a little above for the next couple of months, then i think we could see it tapering in december or more likely in the first quarter. So if we get the payroll numbers back down to 150, 160, then that tapering could be delayed into the second quarter. But ive heard people in the know say ben bernanke is in a position of wanting to taper. Hes been looking for an excuse. They dont necessarily think janet yellen is in that same position. He is somebody that would like to keep the taper on if she can find an excuse to do it. Does that seem an accurate description to you . If so, what does that mean for the market . Like most of the leaders, the fed would like to have Monetary Policy go back to normal if they can. Its a question of whether they think the economy can handle higher Interest Rates. If the economy looks like its slow, then it cant handle those higher rates. If the economy looks like its slow, whats your expectation for 2014 . I think they could pick up a little bit. This year, growth will be between 1. 5 and 2 . Thats terrible. Next year if we see 2. 5 to 3 , thats not great, but it may not enough to get the fed to taper. Peter, youre concerned about the market, but you do admit the market could continue to run for a while. Whats the real signal to you that, okay, theres something concerning and its happening right now . Well, i think we need to see the numbers. Over the past month, weve seen with the success of highs in the indices, we have had the number of stocks trading above their two inch day afghanistan. Not confirming the understandsy highs. That doesnt pick a top. This can go on for months. I just think that the risk rewar is getting more dangerous. If you think that, do you tell them to keep off, not put new money into the market . Do you tell them to take some money off and keep it on the sidelines in cash . Well, the professional investor, i say you have one foot out the door. If youre the Retail Investors that missed the fiveyear bull market thats not putting money in, i say please stop, sit and wait, there will be a better opportunity. Wait for a pullback . Five years into this market at these current levels, yes. Two years ago, were you saying buy with both hands . I listen to the trade that you cant fight the fed. People are writing in that i should grill you a little. Im a huge critic of the fed, of what theyve done. Listen, i was early. I was a bear in 2006. I was a year and a half early. Right. But i saw a major credit bubble, but it went on for a while. I could very well be early again. A new call is 30 in a year. Anyway, but most people dont call 30 in a year. Especially when earnings are up 4 . The question is the timing of all this. And im not smart enough to know the timing. I just know that the boat is evidenced by a record low in bears in todays intelligence number peps. We recently had a guy on that said you should sell like now and wait. When you get this extreme, youre going to get a pullback more than 6 . But weve never had a fed like this before, though, either. Peter, thank you for joining us today. Thanks for coming in. You have all these apps. You havent run across a single alarm clock app . I could have myself wake myself up. Our good friends didnt seem to know the about the bridge closures. They did know about a big puddle in the street. Thats amazing. I dont use it when im going into i know my way from my home. Well, we had a jeeves replacement and he did not. Coming up, youre likely to pay a pretty penny if youre leaving the car at the airport, but now one service says it might pay you while youre away. I might have to get a car now. Plus, a day in the life of an xbox. Our intrepid retail team tracks one of the most popular gifts this year as it made its you way through the Assembly Line to the shelf. Lo. You want to see something cool . Snapshot, from progressive. My Insurance Company told me not to talk to people like you. You always do what they tell you . No. Try it, and see what your good driving can save you. You dont even have to switch. Unless youre scared. Im not scared, its. You know we can still see you. No, you cant. Pretty sure we can. Try snapshot today no pressure. Time now for our executive edge. A local ballot measure to he act a 15 minimum wage near seattle has won a narrow victory. That measure mandates workers at the Seattletacoma International Airport and nearby hotels, Car Rental Agency and parking lots receive a minimum hourly wage more than double the federal minimum of 7. 25 an hour. This has been a long, Ongoing National debate at this point. Union leaders are looking at this and saying this is how we should be rolling things out. Its how you use democracy to get your way if other leaders arent listening to you. So the big question, of course, is going to be a year from now there are more people doing this job or less people . More companies or less companies . If youre a Car Rental Agency, do you move your location to slightly further away from the airport so youre outside that arena. If you are a restaurant, do you move outside that area, too . With it was 6,000 ballots and it wont by 77 votes. And they talking about a potential recount because it looked like that measure was going to win by about 8 . As it got closer and closer, it was Something Like a 15 ballot difference. This is like a hanging chad issue. The business representative says this is a pretend solution to a really serious National Economic problem. This will put it in a test tube where we can watch what happens. As ive said before, ive even made the point that walmart, and a lot of these stocks have doubled their new highs. Shareholders have been rewarded. I can see how someone would say some of it could finally trickle down to the worker. Maybe you dont always maximize. But then i always come back to wage control. And i remember nixon and i remember price controls. And you can look at any economy around the world where you artificially set either wages or prices and normally it dis dislocates something somewhere else. We already have a maximum minimum wage. 7. This is double that at 15. I would think this would have some kind of effect. I understand your argument with the wage and price controls and that concerns me. But we do have a minimum wage. And i guess you wonder in different areas, the yad of a national men mum wage is sket y sketchy, too, because there are people that say if it gets too high, there are people that will work and are willing to take an entry level position that hurts young peep. Lets say theres 10 more jobs available. Theres a certain pool of money you can use for labor. If theres 10 fewer jobs available, fewer people are out of the street. I dont know how you artificially mess with Market Forces and have it work the right way. Normally what do you think is going the to happen . Do you think everyone is going to move . The airport is a i think its a bigger deal when youre setting it for a small area like that. Thats not a for profit ender price, is it . Its owned by the port. So the port, is that

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