Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20141208 : vimarsana.com

Forecast for brent crude saying oversupply is likely to peak in whos doing it best. The Second Quarter of the next and candidly, new york really year. Those prices are looking at a was doing the best work in this near fiveyear low. And the worst case scenario, brent could fall as low as 43 space. Were in a good position from a in the next six months. Thats something to be watching. Budget point. Andrew, over to you. Thank you, becky. On a cash basis. Good morning. We have Corporate News this morning as well. Here are the stocks to watch. Reaching nearrecord levels. The first one out of the box is im comfortable well be able to merck reportedly in talks to buy absorb and pay for the costs. Cubist pharmaceuticals to make and im also confident that the antibiotics and they will pay entrepreneurs coming with roughly 7 billion. Foreignborn citizens and thats more than 34 premium. Immigrants will more than contribute their fair share to also in other drug news, bristol atlantas economy and make this something that we can do and i myers squib says a high rate of think its the right thing for the future of our city. Hodgkins limb foe ma patients responded to a new drug that i have to admit, i didnt helps the immune system fight realize that you had the city with the second Fastest Growing blood cancers. Foreignborn this was a small early stage by percentage. By percentage. Trial. I had no idea of that. The immunotherapy drug also whats drawing that in . Why atlanta . Well, i think because we have showed positive results one of the most dynamic following prior therapies data from both trials presented at a economies in the southeast. Not many folks know it. Medical meeting this weekend. But the gdp is about 295 well have a lot more on these deals and stories in just a moment. Then in media news, cbs and billion. Its bigger than 33 states in dish reaching a multiyear the union. Carriage deal coming just hours so we have the ninth largest metro and it is attracting after cbs pulled the programming foreignborn citizens certainly over the last ten years. From the satellite provider. And we abt over the next ten terms of the deal were not years that were going to attract even more. Disclosed. And this morning a dutch court is banning uber in the and the state of georgia is in the top ten states in terms of netherlands in if the company doesnt stop providing service the number of immigrants who there and will face a fine of would be impacted by the more than 12,000 for a violation. President s executive order. Meantime, new delhi is barring all of those factors are the the ride sharing app and the reason im here today so that we temporary suspension comes after can respond in a thoughtful way an accusation that one of the and absorb in a welcoming way drivers raped a passenger over the weekend. In a statement, ubers ceo says these viindividuals into our community and economy. The government doesnt require its a little bit off topic, background checks of commercial but its a weather question given that were having drivers and the company will apparently some kind of big new work with the government to polar vortex coming our way at least up here. Last winter you had your own troubles. Establish that procedure. It was tough. Thats the story in the Huffington Post this morning. Thats not where i first saw it, a bit of a critique. I was curious how youll be but i think they are also launch approaching this winter . I will be approaching it by ing it it will all converge. Getting out of here and going home and being available and working in partnership with our governor. The bottom line is that we are on a much more aggressive footing in terms of our preparation for Severe Weather early stage one, but numbers events. I feel reasonably good that like 80 , 88 response that were better positioned than we were certainly during last year these blood cancers have and that we will have a much higher level of cooperation and lymphoma, which are like liquid tumors, if you will, but also coordination between the city, the state, and our metropolitan they have shown prominence on solid tumors as well, which area which is made up of seems that cancer, we have multiple jurisdictions. Talked about it before, cancer the falcons are going to cells, tumor cells release freeze their butts off tonight. Something that blocks certain we have a dome for that. Cells from being attacked by the but how many points do you immune system. If you block this thing that the want if you were will you cancer cells you block the blocker, yeah. Actually take the falcons . You block the thing that falcons always have a chance. Blocks the immune cells then of course im going to take the then your body attacks it falcons. Were going to go to new orleans itself, yeah. But some of the numbers were and beat the saints pretty soon. So im taking the falcons. Incredible. But there are these are no question about it. Safety trials and there are some side effects that are not great. Packers are 60 at lambeau but this is pretty exciting field this year. Yeah, whatever. News, actually. Who knows, it may be more than just a lymphoma or hodgkins im the mayor of atlanta, man. Im with the falcons. Story. It may help in other cancers, hope springs eternal. I didnt say i was betting. Which would be good. I just said im with the lets get a check on the markets this morning. Falcons. As we mentioned, youre looking you have to, i understand. At the markets setting on new mayor reed, thank you very highs for the dow and the s p much for joining us today. 500. This morning there are some red thank you for having me this arrows. You can see right now the dow morning. I dont know, man. Futures are down by 37 points. S p futures down by close to 5 Aaron Rodgers i thought for sure you were going to ask him a walking points. The nasdaq futures are down as dead question. Yeah. That must have been that was well. The nasdaq ended the week after a tough time for atlanta. Six weeks of gapes last week so its looking to start a new but he managed through that. Record this week. Well see what happens. A good mayor will do that, in early trading in europe, there were decent numbers out of manage through whatever is thrown at you. Germany to show the economy is i dont think that really not as bad as we had expected. Happened, actually. Maybe things were improving a i know that. When we come back this little bit, but still red arrows there as well with the dax morning, auto sales are back and americans are spending big down. 40 . Bucks. Sales of expensive cars surging. The cac in france is down phil lebeau has that story. By. 60 . And the ftse in london down plus the effect of plummeting oil on teslas sales. By. 70 . The nikkei closing higher will cheap gas kill the electric car . Stick around. Take on the challenge of Trading Options and futures. Despite the news that showed that the gdp numbers were worse than we even expected coming out of japan. The hang seng also closed slightly higher with the shanghai close to 3 . Oil prices are another big story this morning. Brent looking like it is down around fiveyear lows at this point to 67. 69. Wti is down by 1. 6 this morning. 64. 72. You are looking at wti below 65 a barrel. Check out what is happening in the bond market. Right now the tenyear note looks like it is yielding 2. 326 . If youre watching the currency with the easytouse suite of trading tools. Markets right now, the dollar at at optionsxpress by charles schwab. Least at this point looks to be and well give you a one hundred fifty dollar up against the euro at 1. 2247. Amazon. Com gift card when you open an account. If youre looking for a trade idea, start at the idea hub. Its down against the yen, where options and futures opportunities are organized by volatility, earnings, market activity and income strategies. 121. 16. And gold prices at this hour look like they are up by a about 4. 60. Then run your new idea through the trade and probability calculator to get a quick look at the 1,195 dollars an ounce. Possible upside and downside. Streaming charts give you the realtime quotes and and eunice eun is joining us customized views of the market that can help you make your final decision. And when youre ready to make it happen, on the weak data out overnight. Walk limit helps you save time by searching reporter andrew, i have a didbit of information for you. For the most favorable price. You are not buying enough iphone find new ideas, analyze and execute your trades 6s. Because of that, we are seeing a lot of weakness the trade data with just a few simple clicks, with optionsxpress. For china for november. Im serious. The exports slowed sharply. For a one hundred fifty dollar amazon. Com gift card a lot of that is because people are not buying as many when you open an account, call 18889805745 today. Smartphones after the iphone launch in september. And also because of just optionsxpress by charles schwab. Generally there is a weakness in demand globally in the United States as well as in europe. In terms of the imports, they also fell dramatically. A lot of people were taken by surprise by the numbers because of the falling commodity prices. But also because of the genuine softness in chinese demands. And that was raising a lot of concerns here about the overall economy and the direction. Now, this data really came at a time when the leadership here is convening a major conference to discuss the economic goals for 2015. They are going to be drawing up a blueprint. Its a closed door meeting to happen every year, but the results are not announced officially until march. At a big communist party. A lot of times we get leaks from the closed door meetings and people are hoping to see a gdp growth target leak. And that is mainly because economists are very concerned about where the economy is headed or hoping that the or at least expect the leadership to lower its growth target for the year to 7 . Now, while all this badness is welcome back to squawk going on, there was actually a box. Americans are buying cars again huge rally in the stock market in shanghai. For the first time in several and they are buying expensive years, it crossed 3,000. Ones. Phil lebeau is joining us with and a lot of this is because new i did data. Its just kind of interesting this comes to us from true because investors are expecting car. Com. We are on the cusp of a major the government to come in and save the day with extra stimulus milestone. Americans are on the verge of so people are piling into the market. Thats what is going on over buying at least 1 million expensive cars this year. What do we mean by expensive . Here. All right. Take a look at sales of anything eunice, i always like that shot. 50,000 and up as the average its very hightech behind you. Transaction price. Their sales this year up 30. 8 . And its also never empty, compare that with models priced either, no matter what time. Under 50,000, sales of those eunice yoon, thank you. Vehicles, those mass market yes, big traffic. Vehicles, up just 4. 1 . Things are happening. So whats driving the demand for we know that. You passed us. These expensive cars. China passed us in population. Ultra luxury models. And as a result were seeing i dont believe the gdp passing because its a bigger total greater demand. Output but a lot more people. Highend suvs. Also sales growing there. Its like capita. You look at things like the it is not apples to apples. They do have more people. Cadillac escalade or yukon i have heard that. I havent been there. Denali. Finally theres the tesla model i dont know. I dont think that they, that s. And the model s which has an People Magazine has checked average transaction price of every person over there for how 93,000, its on record sales in sexy they are. I dont think they do. The u. S. In the month of if you dont look at 1. 6 million september. The most recent data we have for people or 800 million, whatever tesla. Look at the breakdown of it is for men, i just dont highend vehicles and how the think that its a real who is sales have done this year. The guy . Anything priced between 50,000 thor . Yeah, thor. And 75,000 up 32 . What is his name again . Thors brother is in the then if you thought thats got to be it. Anything over 100,000 sales of hunger games. They call it symmetry. Those models up 17. 2 . Did they interview you for the and as we take a look at shares i didnt get a phone call. Of tesla, were pointing this out because the tesla model s once you are the sexiest man which has a transaction price you arent again, right . Average of 93,000, guys, its i think you are the sexiest not uncommon to find people who man forever. Are buying a model s for over has George Clooney been on a couple of times . You have to bring that up 100,000. The bottom line is this. With the market. The demand for these expensive a lot of people are writing cars has never been greater. About him that its over. Thats where the industry is hes a whiner. Pushing right now because those because hes married . Are the greatest margins. No, because hes whiny and and clearly people can afford this because of 0 financing and leasing which is incredibly hes been in the spotlight for a very long time. Popular right now for these the market buzz story of the higher end models. Would a loaded explorer be day. Under 50,000, do you know . Gasoline prices falling. No. Not if its fully loaded. If its fully loaded, its close the regular price of unleaded is to 50,000 or more. And the base model starts far lower. But what were talking are the average transaction prices. 2. 72. A dollar cheaper than the all of these highend suvs, the average back in may. And a new survey of economists fullsize suvs, youre going showing the view of the national over 50,000. Association for business easily over. Like a navigator or something economics says it expects the or an escalade or denali. Fastest u. S. Economic growth in a decade in 2015. And two big reasons, we have a 65, 70 probably. Stronger job market and also the absolutely. Falling oil prices. So germany had something i would think a cherokee positive again, right . Loaded is probably getting close did you see that, some kind of to 45, anyway, right . Absolutely. Cadillac escalade this year, industrial the second month of growing. Sales up 32. 6 . October and november things look better. Thats what were seeing with so maybe the German Economy is a all the fullsize suvs on the little stronger than we have been giving it credit for. Higher end. Okay. Stick around, phil. But then we had other things dont go anywhere. Were going to continue talking that werent, emerging markets this time about tesla. Dont look that good, right . Will sales of the electric car thats because of the dollar. Drop off as the price of oil the dollars resurgence poses a plummets . Joining us now is ben callow, threat to emerging markets, plus Senior Research analyst. We put the question to you, ben. Last weeks oil market. Thats three days late. What do you thinks going to happen . That was the wall street so, we dont think that the journals lead story on thursday or friday and we talked about demand will be impacted by gasoline prices right now. It. From the last segment you see thats the news peg. There you go. Here the car average selling the dow is on the verge of price around 90,000. Scaling the 18,000 market. Stocks getting a bit of a boost we dont think consumers are from the november jobs report on friday. That pushed the dow and the s p pencilling out gas prices in 500 to record closings. Their purchasing. Joining us right now for the they buy more for the monday morning strategy session, performance, its reliability. Rich stineberg, president and and for the brand which test laz chief Investment Officer of has become an aspirational stineberg global asset ability. Management and covering the the that becomes the question. Is tesla put in a category economic angle, maury harris. Relative to anybody else who is what did you think of the jobs trying to pursue electric vehicles . I think so. I think because of its numbers and what does this mean for the fed . Well, the job numbers were technology and the range advance much better than anybody expected. It has, it is put in a separate and remember the fed is expecting the Unemployment Rate category. At the end of this year to be i think tesla has built this cult around its buyers where between the 5. 9 and 6 . Its really become that and its already at 5. 8 . Aspirational vehicle. And, you know, you see reports easily the up employment rate is going to be coming in next year like Consumer Reports that are most recent rating gave tesla less than the fed expects. One of the highest ratings all of which suggest to me that the fed is going to start again. And so i think people are buying tightening in the middle of the it for the performance, the year. You can see the first tight luxury, and the attributes of anything happening at the june electric vehicles. Weve got to go, but if you meeting. I know the expectations had been for september, at least think of tesla as a battery thats what the markets were company in terms of what the stock price is and the saying, but really conventional underlying valuation to the wisdom is june anyway. Extent you think there is an were you swayed by any of this or were you on june anyway . Underlined valuation given the we were on june anyway. Price, do you worry about where oil goes in terms of price . Our models have been suggesting that payrolls would be going up no. Its not really correlating with around 2. 30 a month and the oil. Were looking at Natural Gas Prices here more as a Unemployment Rate would be in the middle area by june. Correlation. Okay. So oils not correlated in whether that was the core the long run. Okay. Inflation would pick up closer thank you for joining us this to 2 and everything would be in morning. Phil, of course, thank you. Order for the fed to start when we come back this tightening. If thats the case, rich, morning, more on the deal of the what about you . What do you think the market had morning. Merck buying cubist been anticipating . Pharmaceutical. Plus management matters. And does it concern you at all a look at Companies Reaping the or are we really in a situation where good news is good news . Benefits of solid leadership. Thats next. [woman] can it make a dentist this is what we want to hear and the market is okay with that . Appointment when my teeth are ready . Good news is good news, becky, but the markets are starting to price this all in. [girl] can it tell the doctor earnings estimates are starting how long i have to wear this thing . To trickle down for next year, yet investors have to brace for [man] can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . Singledigit returns next year unless the stars align and the the answer is yes, it can. Stronger growth starts to push the eps earnings higher. So, the question your customers are really asking is, rich, when did you grow a can your business deliver . Beard . It hasnt been that long since we have seen you. This is what joe calls my decembeard. I only do it for the market gods to be food for the next year. God almighty, thats a beard, man. When did we last see you . Yeah, that wouldnt work for us. Two weeks ago. This is just you grew that in two weeks . Yep, since december 1st. If he doesnt shave six times a day, it looks like that. Harry rob lowe with a comb stuck there already. Thats frightening. So the one thing i would tell you about the earnings issue is, just since september 30th, re Earnings Growth for next year has fallen from 11. 8 to 8. 8 . When you look at Revenue Growth for the s p globally, 69 of that is in north america, mostly in the u. S. 13 is in europe. And 10 is mostly china japan. So unless the markets pick up globally and the news gets less worse, its going to be tough for earnings to get above 130 next year. So not a lot of upside unless the earnings really pick up. The front page of the wall street journal says this morning that Global Growth looks much better because of all the tumbling oil prices. Is that factoring in all of that . Yeah, but the data isnt showing it with earnings right now. The key question is going to be theres been a 20 downward revision in the energy stock earnings. Thats the highest downward revision since 2009. The s p is trading in its high est estimate in pe since 2005. Energy is 9 of the s p. So unless the input people that are taking in Lower Energy Prices can really drive Economic Growth higher, its going to be tough to get higher markets in the short run. Maury, lets talk about that, though. The protect of lower oil prices, the prospect of the stronger dollar, how does that play out in terms of what youre looking at for your global predictions of growth next year . Well, youve got prosperous the march to 18,000. Right now. There are signs of soft economic will it happen . Growth, especially out of asia well find out how long the and still out of europe. Bulls can run and where you so youve got cross currents. Should be putting your money to work now. With this drop in oil prices, retailers crushed. Why the retailers are selling at your forecast should be higher a discount this Holiday Season than it would have been say two and is it a sign of tough times ahead . To three months ago before the a closer look at the sector and what to expect in the final oil price numbers with the oil weeks of the year. Prices going down. And merck buying cubist. I think were going to have a healthy year next year. Its the latest in big pharma we have forecast here at ubs 3. 1 gdp growth. Details. Well have details and street i do think that people might be reaction as the final hour of squawk box begins right now. Going a little bit overboard on how much good the lower gasoline prices do for you because weve got to remember that as we welcome back to squawk box become less dependent on foreign here on cnbc, first in business energy, the decline in an oil worldwide. The new drug were talking about price doesnt do you as much i think would be a drug that good. Because we start to have to consider more and more the works against some effects of the domestic antibioticresistant bacteria. Producers. So its still in that positive to have lower oil prices, but i hence the huey lewis song. Dont think it gives us as much stimulus as it would have, lets merck paying 8 billion for say, ten years ago when we antibiotic maker cubist. Werent producing so much of the stuff in this country. That stock is up sharply on the hey, rich, just in general, news. Were going to be speaking to barbara ryan, a big pharma like i can mention ten reasons consultant and analyst and cnbc to buy stocks and i cant really contributor in just a couple of mention any not to buy. Minutes about the deal and what i mean, that really makes me it all means for merck. Nervous. Just in terms of all the good and for antibiotics. And well talk a little bit about some of the news thats news is out there and, i dont come out in the cancer war know, it just seems like its just too good. Against cancer as well. Positive developments. The goldilocks, its like anybody can look at it and say, mcdonalds sales are out. Take a look at this. Im going to start buying stocks not good. Which makes me think this is that stock which is a dow component is under pressure. Where the smart money hands it right now im looking at off to the bag holders. Somewhere around 94. 73 after welcome to my inner conflict. That stock closed at 96. 31. This is the big issue right now, you can see 95 is what its joe. The problem has been investors trading in the early hours. Have been conditioned since 2008 they miss on almost every metric. Global comps, down 2 last to oversized returns and i think its okay to have low returns month. That was more than expected. If youre looking at the u. S. , going into next year. But single digits, rich, its down 4. 6 . Not just going to sit there and that is a much bigger drop than go up a half percent a month. Its going to be all over the expected. Europe down 2 as expected. Place. Its going to shake out some of asia pacific, middle east and the complacency a lot more volatility. Africa down 4 which is broader than expected as well. Which means we could go down the expectation there was for 10 to 12 before we do down 3. 8 . So clearly it is the u. S. Comp Something Else. Then you do have that inevitable store sales that are going to be rate increase coming. The big issue. Did you see i dont know if i believe my its going to be off by work last week, i used a pii double. They said cut 7 to 10 cents algorithm to figure out the exact number, 3. 14 314,000 by a supplier in china and also cut 7 to 9 cents by a i dont know if you saw the show but i nailed that number with my strengthening of the dollar versus all foreign currencies. Work. And that if that continues, so thats going to be another big issue for them. Which i cant believe it will, but i think all of that is that will get the fed moving quickly and it will be quicker secondary to the u. S. Comps. Down 4. 6 . Than anyone thought if we keep going 300,000 plus. Thats scary, isnt it . That speaks to the troubles this well, if thats what it would chain has had. Simplifying the menu by take to get because this fed allowing you to order anything has been very cautious. You want. To get them to start moving which doesnt make sense at all. To me simplifying, youre before the middle of the year, doing the work instead. That you need to see your pi, thats a move towards automation. There were people when we started talking about the minimum wage increase who said complete itself and assert you will see this happening in fast food places and other itself a few more times. But keep an eye on the core places, the move towards inflation because the fed wants to see the core inflation automation. You can order it yourself. Heading back up to 2 . Now theyre going to give you a i think it probably will. Kiosk and tell you to do it until we see that, though, you yourself. I guess a Strong Performance dont want to get premature on in the uk, but totally offset by the fed call. Okay. The fed call and the complacency something. Which i cant get. Were going to talk to an analyst, though, in just a couple minutes about the mcdonalds the uk, the performance in call. The uk was more than offset by leaiesman has to lookout for his job now. Thats always the case. Very weak results in russia and why now . Youre nailing the numbers. Negative results in germany. Down 2. 5 now. You may have to that was a joke. Actually, he does he has i bet the futures might be reflecting that on the dow as things that he does to arrive at a number. Last time i drew a smiley face. This time i did pi to 80 places well. Were going to flip that around. Just because i dont im not going to play that. I dont know, why guess at in part of what we saw earlier the its like a game show. Over the weekend overnight in terms of what happened in asia sort of a stick. And japan. Among the other headlines we i dont join. Should talk about this hour, thank you. Morgan stanley now cutting its goodbye. Forecast for brent crude. Saying oversupply likely to maury beginners luck for you. Peak in the Second Quarter of next year. Totally. Its worst case scenario, they it comes every month. What am i going to do next time . Say brent could fall to 43 in i dont know. Coming up, hot on the the next few months. We just had an analyst on that was telling us 65 was their hogwarts express, christmas is gamble. Gas prices falling to fouryear coming early for harry potter fans. Lows. The average price for a gallon and have the nations Biggest Stores been naughty or nice . Find out if the holidays are down to 2. 72. Enough to reverse deep losses now a full dollar below the price in early may. For Retail Stocks. And in washington, congress squawk box returns with all that in just a moment. Nearing a spending deal to avert e a shutdown following a weekend of talks. Politico reporting that house financial noise Senate Negotiators are talking about a spending bill. You can bit 1. 1 trillion, you financial noise cant even figure whats inside there. Also if you havent read it this morning, take a look. Theres a story in todays wall financial noise street journal that might have you doing a double take. Reporting some banks are now urging clients to take their cash elsewhere. Theyre saying leave us or you can face new fees. Financial noise you might say why is this . New regulations mean that jpmorg jpmorgan, bank of america, and others are finding some deposits arent worth it because the rules make them less profitable. They have cash from clients like Large Companies and small banks, that is the group that theyre saying we may not want your cash. The change is notable because deposits have been a Growth Engine for financial giants. Part of whats really driving this is some of the new regulation. And companies in a crisis are likely to pull that cash quicker than everybody else. Joe . How much does sweep Level Management really matter . Lets look at a few companies and how theyve been fairing. Starbucks up 310 since Howard Shultz returned in 2008. Walt disney is up since bob iger came back. And apple is up 115 since tim cook took over in august 2011. Is tracking a companys performance the best way to rate effective leadership . Joining us now, associate dean at the yale school of management. And former professor at Harvard Business school. Both jeff and bill are cnbc contributors. Stock price is one way to go, isnt it . But i bet you can find other ones that might not be as obvious that could be just as important. If you look at the longterm, definitely stock prices. But youve got to give them a long shot, five years. Frankly if i were an investor, i would invest in the leadership. When howard came back, look at what happened. Tim cook has added some 350 billion in value. Everyone was skeptable about tim. Should spend more time looking at who the leaders are and less time listening to all the governance gurus out there. If you get the right leader in these companies, you get great result just like you heard earlier. Bill, i remember stan oneil and others saw how much money the central philippines saw could be made in mortgages by heavy downpours due to the other investment banks. For five years their stock went typhoon. Some people waded knee deep crazy as they did that. Through water. The typhoon weakened today and you know what finally happened. I mean, theres more a stock now its more of a Tropical Storm at this point leaving three people dead and sending price increase can be not long more than a million into shelters this weekend. Lasting. It can be in fact, sometimes heavy winds created the risk of if someone if the ends justify the means, it might even la landslides and flash floods. Be a bad thing. To todays forecast here at yeah, youre right, joe. Home, is there i heard rumors of a noreaster . I think youve got to look beneath the surface and say what are they doing . Tomorrow, maybe . Do they have a sustainable is that true, Keith Carsons . Business model . Look what bob iger did at ive asked you before, focus on disney. First of all, he brought steve colorado and here you are. We really dont appreciate snow jobs on bother and brought here, keith. Is it too late to ask you to pixar. Then he bought marvel and lucas. Move it out west . And hes got the hot hand right no, but theres a storm for now. What he did is delegated to them. They will get snow later in the week. So everybody kind of wins. Those guys. The interesting thing is theres and let them take over the a noreaster coming, but it is disney studios. It was more abundant and turned not what you picture. It is not an all snow event with it around. Thats the wisdom of leadership. An upperlevel disturbance up to its not just about playing the game like oneil did. The north and another to the south. The two of them will join together. And its already happening. Okay. So and then, jeff, i mean, by tonight well have a low pressure system offshore. Could you make the argument that this is usually the beginning of the part where i tell you it a cautious ceo thats worried will snow a lot in places like new york to boston. About, i dont know, societal but this is an inside runner in concerns and maybe doesnt take certain chances that could the meteorology world to the backfire if the stock stays stagnant, is that the kind of west to allow warm air to be ceo you want as well . I guess you want someone who can drawn inland. Walk in between these two the major cities could see a few flakes on the backside of this issues. But we are mainly looking at yeah. Youre right, joe. Rain. Dont be disappointed that this heres a better look at it tomorrow through wednesday. Time bill george and i agree. This is where youll see rain, im sure we can find some way to boston, new york, philadelphia, kick up a harvard yale issue if washington, d. C. Then farther inland with the 32degree line, youre looking we have to. Hes right. At accumulating snow. These are the exact people to so if youre south and east of celebrate. People like michael dell to this this line, youre fine. You may see a few flakes but it wont be nice. The real snow is going to be list. Back here. Heres a look at the snowfall but bob iger, Howard Shultz, forecast through wednesday these people are remarkable. Night. The world is different because the storm may actually last through thursday, but through they have lived. Wednesday night were looking at theyve had an impact. But these shortterm metrics, to big snow. Upstate new york and the ski areas in colorado, the ski areas have a one year and threeyear across upstate new york, they yardstick for judging will see 12 to 18 inches of performance. Snow. Vermont, new hampshire, maine, its ludicrous. Thats where most of the snow you want to take a look at it is. Then stretching back here to over time. Central parts of pennsylvania you look at andrew and he took down to around 3 to 5 inches. You are not going to see flakes the look still being stocked. In new york and boston, but im very happy about that. Thats probably on thursday as the storm system departs. Theyve worked that through these are areas to watch more pretty well. You take a look at nelson peltz specifically, Northern New England and western parts of new york, buffalo, places that do going. Eisner, there was a lot of not need more snow that will be seeing it. Skepticism when he took over take a look at new york, its not pretty, 44 degrees. From bob. Heavy rain and winds. Wondering if he wasnt. And then on wednesday, the the best thing he did was to chance for rain again and the snowflake chance on thursday. Criticize and almost trash bob morning snow showers as the system departs. Iger in his book. After that, our focus will then it gave him a sense of shift to a storm system on the liberati west coast to give you the liberati mountain of snow. Liberation. But its important. And also, california, a place that couldnt buy rain for a year, is looking at 3 to 5 authentic believable business inches of rain. Keith, have you actually joined the sweater of the month . Model. But courageous risk taking. I think thats right with this the sorkin sweater of the month . Hoarding of cash right now. Yeah, but they got the wrong size, as you can see. Guys, i had a question. Its a little tooilt tighter than it needs to be. I dont know if you saw this. Im trying to get into the christmas spirit. I like it. This a totally different topic but related to management and how now manage. It is not like you werent i was going to ask this to bill. Separated at birth, but that how you manage from the road. Looks better on you than andrew. I dont know if you saw this piece in the wall street journal posted i think late e he usually i dont know if friday agent the ceo of united you saw that, but do you have a technologies and why he ultimately got the ax or monitor there . I cant see it. I have to go back to see it. Resigned. In part it was because he was you have to go back and look traveling all the time. He said traveling for work. Because we have andrew animation occasionally he was traveling made. Here we go, sorkin sweater when he was off checking up on a yacht he was building i think in taiwan at the time. But how do you actually manage what does that cost, andrew . From afar . We provide a different because most of these folks now sweater every month. Do you get to send it back or think about the global keep it . Companies, theyre on planes all if you like it, you keep it. If you dont, you send it back. The time. In this case certain employees no, no, no. Were going to the board saying if you dont like it, you keep were just not getting attention it. Why am i not surprised . From this guy. Youve got to do both. Its a business model. You have to be present with all every other month is a your people at headquarters. But youve got to be out there with all your customers as well. Sweater or just we do mock zips and vnecks. We do a couple crews and a i think joe made a good point. You guys just talked about couple cable. Mcdonalds. Theyre staying in the old no cardigans. Model. They dont know where they are. Keith is listening saying, i was playing along, but this sounds pretty good. There really is no sorkin they need a total revamp. Sweater of the month. We are kind of kidding around. What bob iger did at disney. You need someone to come in i dont know what the mock there and change the game. I dont think the mock would if you dont to d. O. That, i work for me very well, but it is think cocacola may be getting 70 degrees down here. I have to find a way to get themselves into difficulty. Thats right. Christmasy. This is it. I think thats the right size for you, dude. An you cant be running it from the padded seat inside your im looking at pecks and a flat office. This is a job where you have to be out there. These guys are traveling more stomach there. Can you talk to my man, al than 150, some 200 days a year. Roker . Im on his show every day and he rips on me saying, hey, my kid calls and wants their sweater sadly thats where the back. I love that. Al is good at that. Constituents are. Yeah, he is. Its diminished towards the end of your career, the variables that drive you for the first you got weather, we have business news. Both of us have to try seven, eight, nine, ten years. Something, dont we . We have to. Its a beautiful sweater. But accessibility, being out there is absolutely critical. It is. Thank you, guys. All right. See you later. Weve got to go. Big news out there for harry do these guys in their personal potter friends. J. K. Ruling is publishing 12 new life need to be role models . I remember the boeing guy. Yeah, theres some reason stories in the runup to christmas. Why there was a medical device fans can access this through her guy that was dating someone. Harry potter website starting on he had to leave. I mean, does that all play into friday. The readers will be treated to it . Not you, bill. Daily stories about the adventu joe, youre right. They have to live by certain adventureous wizard. Rules. Youre a public figure. Do yo have to be a member of like it or not, youre a public this paid website . I dont think so. Figure. Youve got to be a role model ill find out. Like the sweater of the month for all your people and customers. Club. I would think that j. K. Ruling if you dont, youre asking for could make a sweet little trouble. No hanky panky, no dwis, none this could be a tease to something more to come. Maybe thats how they are going to do this. Of that stuff. Wait a second. You do have to sign up. Dungeons, none of that. I dont know if you have to pay but you have to sign up. Well find out more in a 110 foot boats. Moment. In the meantime, the duke i remember that. And duchess of cambridge are who can forget. Visiting the states. Only ellison gets away with its free. Yeah. That. Wherever you go around the its free sh everybody. No worries. Prince william is meeting with world, wherever you look at a president obama in washington towns square, village somewhere today and to atend a conference theres going to be monument. At the world bank. Its not to a committee or board then heading back to new york for a reception honoring of directors. Its Bold Thinking individuals. Conservation efforts. But in europe if you dont meantime, his wife kate will spend her day in the big apple have a mistress, couldnt you be touring a Child Development fired for that sometimes . No. Kidding. Thats a joke. Center. Both want to catch the thats a joke. I love europe. Nets cavaliers game. Love all of you. Really . Love everybody in the eu. Yeah. I like them, too. Thank you, bill. I do. And i like his little brother. There is a little bit of a different viewpoint. Look at i was kidding at the top of the show, although theres a little bit of i said that the brits thank you, guys. When we come back, mcdonalds have the royal family, william and harry, and we have the seeing Monthly Sales slump more than 6 this year. Check out whats been happening kardashians. Which they would agree with to that stock. It is under some pressure. That over there in a lot of the comps were down by 4 on a europe. That it is fitting for us. Global basis down 4. 6 in the thats our answer to the u. S. And that is a huge concern. Royal family. Coming up, move over burger well find out if the big mac king. Mcdonalds wants consumers to can make a rebound on wall street when we check in with an order burgers their own way. Plus Retail Stocks are analyst. Looking like lumps of coal in still to come this morning, the investors stocks. Dows march to 18,000. Well see if theres any chance well talk end of the year of a turnaround before santa outlook with phil orlando. And then ugly sweater themed checks his list one last time. First, as we head to break, a parties growing in popularity. Look at last weeks s p 500 but there is a price to pay. We go inside the business of winners and losers. Being ugly. Well also have more on mercks deal for cubist. Street reaction on this merger monday. Squawk box will be right back. vo rush hour around here starts at 6 30 a. M. On the nose. But for me, it starts with the opening bell. And the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why weve built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. The ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Get the future of phone and the phones are free. [ shutter clicks ] comcast business. Built for business. Hi there [ laughs ] im flo i know im going to get you your rental car. This is so ridiculous. Were going to manage your entire repair process from paperwork to pickup, okay, little tiny baby . Your car is ready, and your repairs are guaranteed for as long as you own it. The Progressive Service center a real place, where we really manage your claim from start to finish. Really. Easy as easy can be bye you dont need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Take a look at futures right because we do. Now, see how the market is were exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. Etting itself up. Bad news over the weekend both because boiling an egg. In japan, we had an economy in isnt as simple as just boiling an egg. Worse shape than expected. And then in china, trade figures life takes energy. Not healthy either. Energy lives here. Now we have mcdonalds posting worse than expected numbers. Dow jones looks like it would open off about 50 points. Lets drill down on the news from mcdonalds. The Monthly Sales falling short of what theyre expecting. Look right now youll see the stock is down by 2. 8 . Joining us now with more on the numbers is rj. He is morningstar retail analyst. Rj, the comps in the United States down 4. 6 . That was much worse than expected. What do you think happened . Yeah. To your point, i think thats good morning. Really the number the market is going to focus on today. Welcome back to squawk box on comes at a time when weve seen cnbc. Im joe kernan along with peith a lot of traffic pick up at other restaurant chains. Right now just shows that the brand is failing to resonate with a lot of consumers and much more aggressive actions are quick and andrew rosssorkin. Needed to get back and reengage with those consumers. The struggling mcdonalds giant i guess its especially concerning when you realize this is at a time when gas prices are is doing pretty well but they down and mcdonalds consumer was plan to announce a create your supposed to be more flush with cash. We did see that from the wal taste test platform where customers can use a kiosk to smart shopper. Why not not here . Customize everything about the i think theres so many other burger. Options that are more compelling name the type of bun, cheese and in the restaurant space. Its up to mcdonalds to what kind of toppings you like. Introduce a much more innovative the mcdonalds shares have been platform. Company is going to be out flat the last year. Is this a move toward marketing some of the customization efforts. The choose your taste which automation . Do it yourself . Theyre planning to roll out to it also makes it more expensive, more complicated with 30 restaurants over the coming weeks, i think thats a positive more ingredients, are mnd more step. It all comes down to execution and marketing of that. Frankly the companys had some revenue. Analysts say they need to missed steps on execution as simplify the menu. Well. You can sort of do this, i it leads a lot of questions. Want a plain cheeseburger with the idea is the right idea. Just ketchup or something. At the same time and whether or i wonder if its a move to not they pull it off was still a lot of questions behind that. At the same time youre also looking at a strengthening automation, do it yourself. Dollar and the company is thats also like the dominos warning that its going to be or pizza hut guy, 10,000 losing 7 to 9 cents a share ingredients and Everyone Wants because of the strengthening to customize their stuff. U. S. Dollar against every other you would like to say, i want foreign currency. The hamburger with actual beef. What does that mean . Certainly foreign currency given their exposure outside the 100 . Remember some of the im not u. S. , thats going to weaken the going to mention names, but remember in the past they tested results here at home when theyre translated into u. S. It which one was that . Dollars. So i think that is one issue that you have to look at on the it was with chicken or fries. Eps line. Looking forward, thats probably going to normalize. Remember they were the youre going to look at the people, they dropped the suit fundamentals in those regions. Immediately because it was not true about taco bell. Europe was slightly better than expected. But all you have to do is just given what they were lacking last year. The uk was a positive result. Question it and people go, its like the old corona beer rumor. I think france was weaker. That might be an area for concern. Looks like asia was about what it was to be expected. I do know that one. Especially with the china food the consolation of you supply issue. So what do you do with the stock at this point . Arrived. Thats from apollo 13. Yeah, we think shares are about fairly valued at current bill paxton yes levels. You know, things dont look like we are children, were sorry. Theyre going to turn around only a few more weekends before the big man comes to up overnight. So you have to have a longterm horizon. To. 17 shopping days remain until you get a nice yield for this. Christmas. Its the perfect time for retail 4 at current levels. Almost 4 of current levels. I think you get paid to wait. But at the same time theres still a lot of questions about sector nomics with morgan the turnaround here. Thank you for joining us. Brennan. Absolutely. Lets start with best buy. Coming up when we return, jobs data sending markets into that stock is down 11 well, uncharted territory. Were going to look at the well start with best buy down winners and losers of this bull 11 this year on track for the run and the march dow to 18,000. Sixth straight december in the red. And online Sales Activity after the break, if youre crashed the website on black thinking of getting away for the friday. But the company says that faster holidays, its not too late to online growth will cut into get a good deal. How you could save on flying this Holiday Season. Profits it outsources. Were right back with that story in just a moment. Gamestop down 24 this year. E and they say video games were a bright spot thanksgiving weekend but the retailer recently slashed fullyear guidance. Another one to take a look at, Urban Outfitters down 16 this year. Thats on the flagship brand. Analysts say its the same story with the other retailers. The declining market share to those changing their lineup more frequently. This is something to keep an eye on. Lastly, check out amazon with the stock down 22 so far this year. Its on track for another Holiday Season. But its spending a lot of money on other projects as its core business slumps. Thats an issue and is expected to continue. The takeaway for the retailers, strong holiday sales likely to be offset by steeper details at the retailers. For the four stocks n particular, we have other factors playing out as well. Back to you. Thank you very much. The biggest shopping days of the season are still ahead for us. And the delivery deadline for Online Shopping is fastly financial noise approaching. We have the former ceo of toys financial noise rus here with us. Jerry, good morning. How do you think toys r us is financial noise holding up . Im sure they are doing great. They are a great company. Okay, you are only going to say nice things. Financial noise when you came here a week ago, we had the news that friday, the weekend was not as good down so if you get a trade idea about, say, 11 . And you said rubbish. Organic food stocks, schwab can help. And its turned out to be rubbish. With a trading specialist just a tap away. It is rubbish. Its totally wrong. Whats on your mind, lisa . Even this morning in the wall street journal they repeated it id like to talk about a trade idea. Lets hear it. Again. [ male announcer ] see how schwab unbelievable. Its bad data out over and over can help light a way forward. Again. Sales are up 3 to 5 on black so you can make your move, wherever you are. Friday weekend. And start working on your next big idea. It says something about the survey method, too. Because its a consumer survey, totally wrong. So people were happier that weekend than we thought they were, but cyber monday people were less happy, what happened . Still up double digits but cyber monday has moved to black friday. So it used to be that some kind of special day was cyber monday when you go to the office to use the broadband internet, but everyone has that at home now. Thursday and friday were just massive days on the internet. That was one reason why i was confident sales were up over the weekend and not down. When you got to cyber monday, they were up. It depends on the survey if it was single or double digits but it was hard to continue that forever. Whats been happening year after year now and getting more extreme, the internet is growing consistently in double digits every holiday. The stores see the peaks and welcome back. Valleys, so a nice peak on black with christmas less than three friday. Weeks away, its not too late to most stores did nicely in the book that lastminute holiday brick and mortar over black friday weekend. Vacation whether its a getaway then past cyber monday and it is no mans land. Or to relax. Holiday travel deals are out its desolate from cyber monday to a week before christmas and there still. Kirk gregory has more. It will pick up again. Is the holiday officially over then in regard to people are just going to this goes millions of americans will to the whole channel thing, right . Well, its an excuse to have travel by air this holiday a sale. Season. So as long as you have it, they but travelers who dont have a ticket need to get busy. Are going to have sales on that for travelers looking to get day. Every retailer will also see good deals as we get closer to sales spike. Today is green monday. Talk about something not needed new years travel, if you havent anymore as a marketing concept. Booked your airfare, you want to what is it . Book it as soon as possible. Ebay started it and the those are only going to go up in original idea was that was sort terms of price. Of the last day to order and be orbitz says while prices on Airline Tickets are going up, confident through regular u. S. Postal service to get the there are ways you can save once product in time for christmas. But now its completely outdated. Youve booked your flight. Look for promotions that will now you can order a few days before christmas and guaranteed help you save on things like your checked baggage fee. Orbitz for the second year in a to get it before christmas and a row is offering their zap that reason to have a sale. So there are a lot of values out bag deal where if you book your there today, so the question is what to check on. Flight on orbitz, you can use if theres a lot of good sales, their app to take a picture of you could have great high your checked bag receipt. Numbers in sales dollars. This is out over the weekend in the new york times, they that 25 receipt when you check your bag, submit it through the wave a demonstration of injustice sweeping through the app and theyll credit you 25 Holiday Season since the holiday into your orbitz account. And codes for hotel discounts shopping has begun. The retail Sales Numbers are are out there. Disappointing but the media looking for alternative ways outlets are treating them like to save is really going to be how travelers are able to save a few dollars here and there. And theres more good news events taking place on two for holiday travelers. Different continents, whereas over christmas specifically with them theres the mix of people going home to visit family but also a boycotting stores on black lot of people who are taking friday. Should we put them together or those weeklong vacations. Not . Well, that article also sop your volume headed to the airport is a bit more spread out talked about the basic premise so you dont tend to see as much flawed from the beginning. Congestion as at thanksgiving. Certainly, its micromarkets. If you go to ferguson, that it could make a Great Holiday retail sales were off in that area. And they are occupying macys. Vacation even better. Nbc news. Up next, our dom chu will be so the sales were off. Along to walk us through the if you look at the entire u. S. Market, that has no more effect winn on it than a fleeting snowstorm. Winn winners and losers of the dow is. Plus ugly sweaters, theres big is there a greater surprise for you . Money to be made. It is not a surprise, its and some of those crazy odes to something we should know, but the internet continues to grab christmas. That is straight ahead. Share at a startling rate and is squawk box will be right back. Not slowing down. And take a quick look at the store traffic is off sharply. U. S. Equity futures under pressure from the get go. Fortunately, store sales are not mcdonalds not helping that. Off as much as traffic. Right now the dow futures down those who go to the store have by about 50 points below fair preshopped on the internet and go to the store with a mission value. S p futures off by five. Idelitye in mind. But that shift is entering at an and youll see just how much it has to offer, ever faster rate, which is why especially if youre thinking of moving an old 401 k we have discussed on the channel model is the one that the bricks and mortars guys have to grab to a fidelity ira. It gives you a wide range of investment options. Fast. Joe is mentioning the sweater and the free help you need to make sure your investments fit your goals of the month. However, he asked if they were returnable and i said no. And what youre really investing for. However, the reason im asking tap into the full power of your fidelity green line. Is we have bought a lot of stuff this Holiday Season already. A lot of which some of we plan call today and well make it easy to move that old 401 k to a fidelity rollover ira. To return. What is the cost of returning an item online . Actually, it must be higher than returning it at the store, am i wrong about that . Youre going to pay for that, right . It is passed on to you, but now you print out the Free Shipping thing and send it right back. Ill do multiple sizes and send it back, but i want to understand youre on to something really important. The Online Retailing is more expensive than in the store retailing. I know theres a myth the other way around, but thats not true. Amazon quarter after quarter does not make money when it is Online Retailing. Digital goods, sure, you can digitize and its cheaper to do it over the internet. But a physical good to pack it up and return it to your home is more expensive. Inside the brick and mortar retailer, you will see the pure online operations have a lower return on sales an assets than the store sales base do. It is very expensive to operate a line. But the consumer wants it and thats where it will dpochlt this is one of the squeezing resources for retailers, but then you see the harmens squeezed and go, what is going on there . Theres a negative arbitrage in the profitability of sales done online and in the store. And therefore you have to bet on whom . The retailers really strong in doing this. One of the great things that happens is a lot of people return the goods to the store. When they come to the store, you can get them to buy Something Else and you have done a fantastic job. The retailers i love are nordstrom and macys. Best buy is doing a good job in a tough category. Walmart is doing a spectacular job. Who wouldnt you touch with a tenfoot pole . The teen retailers are toast. Why . The teens are spending money on cell phone bills and dont go to the mall anymore to have fun. And it depends on what happens with gaming. They are in a good part of the cycle right now. I believe in the longterm, that will go online since 1998. Anything will be digitized 100 on the internet one day. Sorkin, ive got to admit that youre scaring me because youre already multimedia, omni something or other. It wouldnt take much for the sweater of the month thing to turn into something real. If it does, im going to be really angry if you do present this. You dont want a piece . You can do it. You have the showtime thing and merck is buying cubist the deal book, it could be pharmaceuticals for 102 in totally internet based and dont share or 8. 4 billion. Need the brick and mortar at thats a 35 premium. All. With us on the squawk newsline and theres no blue slip. What if you go on shark is barbara ryan. Tank to get money from those barbara, cubist already has guys . Why not do sweater of the month . Stuff that merck can use to add who would not want to receive a sweater . Theres a slew of retailers doing prescriptionbased work. I want to focus on sweaters to their codery of drugs, right . And different brands. I have not seen that but right. Merck has identified the there are other gifts for sure. You have the animation ready hospital care market as one of to go. You are not above going this. Their four focused areas. You arent. And so its very well there. Merck has been growing 10 . Im already emailing this. And what cubist brings is when we come back, 61,000 for a truffle. Believe it or not, well have details on that when we come obviously cubisan. Back. Stick around, squawk box will be right back. [sound of crickets] brii,brii,brii and one for gram negative sickness. Close to getting approval. I think the date is december 21st. So what you just described is eight or nine times sales. So they must in the future, they must see some serious issues with drugresistant bacteria. Right. I mean, i think that many, many years ago as you know, many pharmaceutical companies walked away from the Manufacturing Products deals, you know, it had become kmcommoditizecommoditize. And that gave way to a global problem with resistant infection. Cubist obviously being one of the leaders, but weve seen other Companies Gain prominence. The medicines company. Newly Public Company called paratex. And certainly there is renewed interest in this area if they as i said, a growing global problem. And the opportunity to treat a lot of these resistance infections like mrsa are, you know, significant opportunities for the industry and as i said, a number of companies have focused in this area and are creating significant value. You saw some of the hodgkins disease. What are they pd1 blockers, right . Uhhuh. This can be in your view is this something that might have a Wide Application and a real water shed moment . In terms of cubist . In terms of cancer. In terms of not only working on hodgkins but maybe solid tumors. Absolutely. I think that is one of the other four areas that merck is focused on with oncology agents like pembro. And the idea would be to look at those and a host of other [male narrator] weve all heard how military veterans cancers as well as combining adjusting to the civilian world them with existing agents. May have. I think youre going to see a certain. Issues. Lot more in this field from 2. Companies like merck that have 30. Already been focused there. But i think merck will, you 70. Know, ratchet up its activity in the field as well. Okay. All right. If only everyone had this issue. Thanks, barbara. Appreciate it. Thank you. Bye. No matter what challenge they face, and the dow is ever so close easter seals is here to crossing the 18,000 mark. For americas veterans. Another major milestone. The industrials first crossed the 17,000 mark back on july 3rd of this year. Crude oil on that day closed at 104 a barrel. Its down close to 40 since then. Here to dazzle us with more dow facts and figures or our stats man dominic chu. They sate stats geek in do you want to be a geek . I can be a geek sometimes. If were in business news, were all a bit of a geek at some point in time. Lets look at some of the big dow winners and losers. Since july 3rd, a lots happened in the course of market history here. Between 17,000 and 18,000 still well, if you think youve seen everything, think again. A big deal. This is a giant white truffle lets look at who you guys think that is selling for more than the biggest gainer has been in the dow. So one of the companies thats 61,000 at auction. Driven the dow between 17,000 and 18,000. A little more than 4 pounds and the best performing stock in the slightly smaller than a dow is what . Youve got your paddles. Football. Average truffle is about the size of a walnut. Think about who the biggest you know, hong kong, no less, because it was out last week and winner is. All right. Becky says nike. Said it was going to go for a Million Dollars and went for bigs winner . 60,000. That shows you the way the in the dow between july 3rd tabloids will just hype this and today. Stuff. But thats a lot for a mushroom. Joe probably knows all these already. What are we doing . 61,000 . Biggest winner in the dow it is. But you see restaurants you since july 3rd. That was the last time they get the white truffle, its closed over 17. Like when we went to paris, i youre proud, becky, arent you . Remember this two or three years ago, i told you this story, we it was in the prompter. Oh, thats how you know . Did truffles on top but i was not focused on how many. Duh. Nike. They did it by weight. And then the bill came at the heres mine. End and it was not good. Id say how about reebok. Coming up when we return, lets say youre correct. Tablets, phones and now diapers. No. Why amazon thinks selling their nikes correct. Despite the fact becky saw it in own brand of items could be the the prompter, i think she probably knew about it. Key to success. But nike has gained 26 since well have if consumers agree when squawk box returns. E july 3rd. The best performing stock in the dow. Lets turn our attention to the worstperforming stock in the dow since then. This is not in the prompter this time. No, but it is in inews. This is not fair. I cannot play. I call shenanigans on becky right now. We dont do cheats. Financial noise this is a game designed to make us look tupd. My guess was chevron. Financial noise i didnt know i love the fact you still call it chevron texaco. I remember the texaco as well. Financial noise see, i didnt know. Cvx. I thought that was a drugstore. Financial noise thats cvs. Heres one more fact before we leave you guys, we know those boy once upon a time, are the biggest percentage gainers. But in terms of who the biggest there was a nice house that lived with a family. Point contributor to the dows one day, it started to rain. Thousandpoint gain between 17,000 and 18,000, now you have the house tried to keep out all the water, to adjust for things like price. But water got inside who do you think has contributed and ruined everybodys everythings. The most in terms of points to the house thought she let the family down. The thousandpoint gain that we could see in the coming days here . They just didnt think it could happen. They told the house they would take better care of her. Its also one of the Top Performing stocks in the dow. Always. Announcer protect what matters. Get flood insurance. I dont know. Just in the dow. Right now, you can get a single line with 3 gigs for 65 a month. 3 gigs. Is that a lot . Yeah . Thats about. 100 app downloads, 45 hours of streaming music, and 6 hours of video playing. I dont know. What was the question . singing and five golden rings exactly. Got to go. The biggest point contributor ha, i see what you did. singing four calling birds. Three french hens. In the dow between 17,000 and the guys starts to fizzle out two. Turtle. Doves. 18,000 right now is visa. Its up a pretty decent chunk i really went for it there here and its one of the biggest price stocks on the dow. Ya you did. You really, really did so its contributed about 300 now get 3 gigs of data on one line for 65 a month. Points between then and today. Not too shabby. Not bad. Switch to at t, buy a new smartphone and get 150 credit per line. Dom, thank you. Youre very welcome. For more on the dows rapid rise to 18,000, were joined now by allison deans and here on set uh, and i know my iq. Okay. Uh, and i knowuhi know what blood type i have. Phil orlando. Oh, wow uh huh, yeah. I dont know my credit score. You dont know your credit score . I dont know my credit score. Weve had a couple of people say thats really important. I mean i dont know my credit score. Dont you want to buy a house. Like, ever . So many things are positive but you should probably check out credit karma, its free. Credit . Karma . Theyre all known. Free . So, thats. How much . Might be either flat or at best thats how much its free. Credit karma really free credit scores. Single digits. No credit card needed. Is that your vee or not . We disagree. The multiple expansion were looking at has had a phenomenal run. 11 times earnings back at the dad yeah, 20 something years now. Bottom of the market in 09. Thinking about what you want to do with your money . We finished last year at 17 times earnings. Daughter looking at options. We think were going to finish what do you guys pay in fees . This year at 17. 5 times earnings. Dad i dont know exactly. So our forecast next year which daughter if youre not happy do they have to pay you back . Dad it doesnt really work that way. Is 23. 50 multiples will get up daughter you sure . To 18. Corporate earnings we think are vo are you asking enough questions in a sweet spot right now. About the way your wealth is managed . Were sort of mid, single Wealth Management at charles schwab. Digits. Weve got 130 in earnings next year versus 120 this year. How about you, allison . Well, im not looking for multiple expansion. Just corporate Profit Growth which im looking at 7 or 8 . So it gets a return of 8 to 10 . My feeling is the market mu multiple is where it should be. Both of you obviously fundamentals based. I mean, does sentiment bother you at all at this point, allison . The storys out there. We know now. We know about the energy boom. You know, we know that the u. S. Is growing better than most of its competitors around the welcome back, everybody. Amazon has started selling its globe. We know that Interest Rates have own line of branded diapers and stayed low. We know inflation stayed low. Wipes. The stock when it heard this what is there still to find out last week didnt take too kindly that causes people to act to the news. Bullishly at this point . Finished down 7. 5 . You know, to some degree, the slowdown in the rest of the joining us is ed lee. World keeps a damper on interest hes a managing editor at rico. Rates. The biggest concern is the fed thanks for being here. Might start tightening sooner sure. We heard this news, its a than expected. Head scratcher. It seems the latest round of why do you think theyre doing this . Data that the trends overseas amazon branded diapers no less. Are lower. One of the things amazon found so we dont see the fed trying is a lot of people are searching for diapers on the site but a to do anything soon. My view is unless things specific type of diaper. Overseas get a los worse or environmentally conscious but also good for their baby. I think theyre trying to theres some event sort of not expected event out there, the fulfill a need based on the data trends seem to be positive and theyre receiving from people not overly positive to cause searching on their site. Concern on the inflationary is there a high margin on side. Answer me in terms of diapers or something . Technical stuff, phil, and why bother . Sentiment. You ever care . Theyre not a high margin yeah. How do you identify when a business. Trend is in danger of getting jeff bezos, historically their long in the tooth . The one thing that strikes us experience is theyre not big on driving margins. From a sentiment standpoint is theyre big on serving customers that the market has consistently making sure they stick around on the site, get what they need. Underestimates the improvement in gdp growth. I think thats their strategy here. Whatever little thing, whatever the last two quarters, 4. 6 and big thing that theyre seeing now 3. 9 . People want, they want to serve thats the strongest sixmonth them. They saw more searches, more period in gdp in 11 years. Desires for these types of consensus estimates going into diapers. Weve had analysts who have come on quarter after quarter, both those with 3 in both year after year that said this instances. So the market is underestimated is the time when amazon is going growth. To buckle down and start turning were at 3. 4 gdp for next year. A profit. Were going to stop at the experiments after the last consensus again of 3 . So at the margin, if the economy the phone and the rest of the continues to sort of meet our things. Are they wrong to think that . Expectations, thats going to do a little bit better on corporate based on what weve seen Earnings Growth. Maybe we get a little bit of recently, its not the time. Multiple expansion. I dont think the times coming inflation and Interest Rates any time soon either. Still very benign. Jeff bezos is still big on so i think that all it grows much faster than experimenting. He talked about the fire phone that was a flop for them. Expectations than unemployment falls more quickly. But theyre still going to do it. He said were going to try the the fed is perceived to be. Next version and keep doing it fed behind the curve. Until we see something happening with it. We fully expect that the fed is so i think thats still their going to have to stargt to strategy, is to try different things, experiment, but tighten next year. Ultimately for them its about one of the surprises on the jobs keeping the customer. Report friday is the argument is you know . Theyre doing all the service to the whisper was the first hike keep the customer. And the funds rate would be a i will say this is has been a 2016 event. Message that jeff bezos has been we think that got dragged back into the middle of 15. Clear about from the get go. If youre an investor and didnt i agree. So in perspective of investors, there may be a knee jerk reaction down when the fed starts to tighten. Realize he was going to do it, but when investigators think you havent listened. But hes an opaque leader about it, they think wait a too. Hes not out there a lot. Second. If the fed is starting to hes not publicly speaking. Normalize policy for the first and so i think in all fairness time in seven or eight years, to the investors or to the thats got to be good news. Analyst as well, theyre not and we think that that will getting a lot of good drive shares higher. Information either. The one insight we can draw from seems kind of obvious, the diapers thing and from all these other things that theyre allison, but sometimes the obvious things work, i guess. Doing, grocery delivery and all its hard. Its more fun to be contrarian. These things, its a way to but it does seem as if the drive more people to their prime trends keep improving at the memberships, the 99 a year. Margin and getting a bit better, yes. The s p was 666 at the lows. Free shipping and free media now with it. Tv and movie streaming on their its now 2075. Prime service. So amazon sees prime members weve tripled. Yes. Shop more than nonprime okay. Members. Dont even raise any cash, dont i think a lot of people i know have prime membership. Even get any dry powder. I have prime membership. Just stay in fully at this i do. Andrew does. We all do and we love it. Point. The concern is if you go into it becomes a matter of course the fixed income market, that now in terms of shopping. Hes created a new model for it. I admit, guy there first markets at greater risk. The market can do well if because i want to see if i can get it in two days. Theres modest tightening by the but i think thats what fed whereas the bond market could do poorly. Theyre trying to drive. Weve had both viewpoints anything to drive membership is what theyll try. Throughout the show today. And i think that theres a we appreciate it. Longer term strategy around that this is the other one. Thank you, allison and phil. For sure. Thank you. Sure. Coming up when we return, thanks. Coming up next when we strong job growth. Gas prices at a fouryear low. Return, the popularity of ugly sweaters growing by leaps and why economists are getting more bounds. Were going to take a closer optimistic by the day. Look at what were calling the well talk about in a minute. Business of ugly sweaters. Plus tis the shopping season and retailers are seeing their stocks sell at a discount. Why the sector is having a tough time and if you should be a buyer. Were back in just a moment. A ph. D. Or an mba. Ave everyone has questions about money. You know, i think about money kind of a lot. Moneys freedom. Moneys always on my mind. Credit cards. Mortgage. Debt. Its complicated. Its not easy. Im not a good budgeter. Unfortunately, im a spender. I would love to learn more about finances. So theres questions about the world that all of us have, especially about money and finance. The goal of khan academy and Better Money Habits and the partnership were doing with bank of america is to give people the tools they need to empower themselves. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection srx for around 359 a month. Open port twentytwoohoneseven on the firewall for customer db access. Install version twopointthree of db connector and ensure verbose flag is set in case of problems. clapping sound isnt the cloud supposed to make business easier . Get the one that can connect to the systems that you already have. Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Hey what are you doing . I was thinking about taking this speed test from comcast business. Oh yeah . If they cant give us faster internet or save us money, theyll give us 150 bucks. Sounds like a win win. Guys faster internet . I have never been on the internet and i am doing pretty well. Does he even work here . Dont listen to the naysayer. Take the comcast business speed test. Get faster speeds or more savings, or well give you 150. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back, everybody. One of the hottest shopping items of the Holiday Season is the ugly sweater. We mean ugly. We are days away from National Ugly sweater day. Courtney reagan has been looking at the good, bad, and really ugly. Everyone has a Family Member who proudly busts out that holiday sweater every year. Now many more americans are joining that crazy aunt. Though maybe not for the same reasons. Quote, the ugly holiday sweater trend is an example of the bulldog theory. So ugly its cute or kind of fun. You can make your own from craft retailers. Welcome back to squawk box you can rent one from rent the runway. On cnbc. Retailers from macys to forever 21 and Urban Outfitters are im joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. Giving salvation army, good breaking news, the rumored merck will, and your first grade deal to buy cubist teachers closet some pharmaceutical is official. Competition. Meg tirrell joins us with the searches are up 500 this year. The states with the most latest. Thats right. We just learned merck is buying interest over the last 30 days, for 200 a share for a total pennsylvania, new york, texas, california. Deal of 9. 5 billion. Fanatics. Thats an equity value of 8. 4 the largest retailer of sports merchandise sold out of the best billion. That represents a premium of most popular teams. About 35 over cubists average groupon has sold more than 40,000 ugly sweaters this trading price. Thats 102 a share. Merck for cubist. Season. Retailers cash in while they of course with this deal merck can. Two years ago this was an brings in a lot of antibiotics. And another drug that is underground trend amongst expected to be approved by the college parties. Now its gotten exposed to the fda this month. General public, it may last only which could bring in 9. 5 a year or two more. Billion. Here are some of the examples of 102 a share merck for cubist the fanatics. Just hitting now. Back to you guys. Ugly broncos sweater. So ugly. All right. They run about 60 or so. Meg, are you going to be with us but they really sold out of the later to talk about the pd1 most popular sizes. They couldnt find any smalls blockers . For me. So we have mediums and larges yeah. Thats why were sitting in this here. But this is a Miami Dolphins for empty Convention Center which the dolphin hater or lover in should get busier today. Your family. Theres going to be a moment well be hear to talk about the where you cant perhaps. But theyre hottest sellers humanology meeting. Right now. But they have a limited shelf i know cubist is working on life. Only a couple months every year. All sorts of new antibiotic once. I think this plays in. Treatments but how far along are they and what do they have up the sweaters youve worn in here their sleeves so we understand i think are ugly. What merck is actually getting . So this sort of would combine yeah. So theyve got the approved drug with the sweater exactly how popular are these ugly sweaters because who cubesin. Classifies whether or not a the other one is for infections sweater is ugly or not. Maybe someone doesnt think this known as gram negatives. But there arent a lot of drugs is ugly. Put a zipper on a couple of out there for it. Those and theyre sorkins. With this growing superbug i think of randy quaid from problem, a lot are becoming christmas vacation. Whos the most famous sweater resistant to certain drugs. This one is expected to be wearer with the father figure with the oh. Approved and could get 1. 5 b yeah. Not even going to talk about that. Right. A remember . Im going mr. Rogers. The cos used to wear the billion. It also has a drug that helps sweater on every show. Patients recover faster from mr. Huxtable. Bowel surgery helping them get out of the hospital faster. Yes. So their entire focus is on dr. Huxtable, actually. Drugs that are administered in moving on. Okay. The hospital setting. Thank you. Thank you. And thats an area that mercks a number of Specialty Retail identified as one of four that stocks getting a bit of a black it wants to build in. By doing this acquisition, its eye after black friday. Check out stocks of urban building up in that area. Outfitters dropping. Thats tame to the likes of antibiotics have been neglected express and american eagle. Both those names hammered to the in recent years so its tune of more than 10 . Interesting to see them go up joe feldman covers the discount here. I love meg. You can throw any question at and hardline retail names. Her and shell know. Are any of these absolutely joe, where are these stores having why are these stores novel, the mechanism of action on the antibiotics . Having so much trouble this season so far . Are they novel ways of attacking them . Yeah. Because we know how quickly its been a tough time for these bacteria can mutate around just guys. Maybe the trend of ugly sweaters hasnt picked up for those guys. But, you know, its really been a lot of pressure there. Addons type drougs. Thats true. Theres not been one hit item. Thats been one of the issues and were seeing spending in a finding new antibiotics. Lot of other places. Actually a lot of the companies i dont know if anybody would characterize them as novel i cover. Like the walmarts and targets of mechanisms. One of the problems with gram the world. And even home depot and lowes negative bacterias is they have more ways of fighting off continue to do well. Youre seeing spending on those antibiotics that are trying to things. Youre seeing spending at restaurants and experiences. As opposed to actual items. Kill them. It has been a long time since weve seen a whole new class of when you say items when antibiotics. You say walmart is picking up shares, are you saying shares of and im not going to throw clothes or theyre buying other anyone under the bus, but we items . Sorry, yes. I think theyre buying other have people that take these types of things. Other hard goods. Zpacks when they have a cold or electronics. I think its theres how do you square that . A virus and its obviously not, i mean, at some point people occasionally need to wear meg, a bacteria. Clothing. Is it are we in a is there and the doctors that prescribe it and the people that take it a fashion trend thing happening are just part of the problem, right . Where there is no new fashion . Meg, explain how i get better what how do you ascribe the in 24 hours if i take it and if i dont take it, im in bed for problem . Part of its a lack of a fashion trend. The Athletic Apparel trend a week. Did i mention any names . Continues. And retailers that are selling i know who you were directing that product have done well with that product. That at. Why do they let people do you know, even Dick Sporting goods has done well with their that . Why do they let people take antibiotics for what is a rhino Athletic Apparel. But theres no, like, hit items. Remember a few years ago people virus, essentially . Were spending 250 on jeans. Youre completely right. And thats just not happening thats why these antibiotics have lost effectiveness. Right now. Youre not seeing any kind of but one thing is point of care singular demand. Again, you made light of the ugly sweater trend, but its not that one kind of thing that everybodys jumping on right diagnostics. So theyre throwing things at the problem before they know what it is and thats caused now. Do you think these guys go in issues. One area that needs to get and out with the fashion like ramped up are diagnostics. Didnt you selfdiagnose this abercrombie where theyre out last time . Now but can come back in . Yeah. Maybe its Something Else you have. The antibiotics arent going to or do you think this is a longer trend . Hurt. So maybe itll take care of we think its a longer trend. Weve talked a lot about the something will you settle a debate, though, in my house about this . My wife is in the same camp both fast fashion trend. Youve seen the likes of h m of you are on antibiotics. I am not am i going to become and others out there that have been really picking up a lot of immune . Its that im hurting everybody share for that lower price good. Else . Yes. Which is why he doesnt care. You know, the surveys that we do when we talk to teens, they exactly. That was my point. But can i become immune to it continue to indicate that personally . Theyre shopping at forever 21, no. But theyre not shopping at im curious. Will you stop if we say yes . Abercrombie. And i think thats where theres maybe. Definitely been a little bit of i dont know. A shift in where people and that im just what you should b worry about youth have been shopping. Okay. Joe, thank you for joining us isnt you shouldnt worry this morning. Thank you. When we come back, jim youll become immune but what can happen is the bugs become cramer is going to join us from immune then you might end up the new York Stock Exchange. The Philadelphia Eagles with something worse. Suffering their first loss at all right. Thank you, meg. Home this year. And later Morgan Brennan brings again, thank you. We can ask you anything and you know the answer. Us her moving experience with a thank you. She is amazing. Were going to talk about cow named elena. Other headlines this hour. A look at the business of milk lets first start with this one. And technology on the farm. Squawk returns in a moment. Cbs stations are back on dish network after they reached a new agreement over the weekend. Cbs had pulled its programs friday after talks stalled. Also gas prices are at a fouryear low. The average price now stands at 2. 72 per gallon. Thats down 12 cents in two weeks. And five former employees of bernard madoff, theyre going to begin sentencing this week their sentence this week in connection with that case. Prosecutors are looking at prison terms up to 20 years. The stunning jump of the nonfarm jobs has everyone going back to recalculate the gdp frflts. We think b this is for real, a new trend . Actually, not. This is the interesting thing this week. If i thought i was going to go back and see these guys upgrading their forecasts, guess what you would think it would prompt rethinking of growth. But im not seeing it. Im not seeing it spill into more optimistic growth forecast. Especially, by the way, because this was the one that everybody was waiting for. Strong job growth and strong wage gains. Maybe thats because of whats happening overseas. We got some bad news there this morning. I want to recap those headlines. Production rising only half of the estimate. So its good its up, but only half of what was expected. Japanese Third Quarter gdp more than expected. And disappointing china trade. Lets get back to the u. S. And the jobs report. Heres what Goldman Sachs writes over the weekend. Quote, were not quite ready yet to believe the economy is growing as much as two Percentage Points above trend. Jpmorgan and whether and how much growth accelerates through the year is still an open question. And Morgan Stanley says the 300,000 jump in november should consider to get rid of the considerable timeline. The reason is because we talk so much about jobs on friday, there were a couple other data pieces that came out that actually pointed towards a lower tracking forecast. You can see the Fourth Quarter hey what are you doing . Tracking 2. 6 . I was thinking about taking this speed test from comcast business. Oh yeah . Down. And the range is really wide. If they cant give us faster internet or save us money, theyll give us 150 bucks. 1. 1 . Guess whos at 4. 2 . Sounds like a win win. Guys faster internet . Only one guys. I have never been on the internet he is the one optimistic guy out and i am doing pretty well. Does he even work here . There. Can you believe that, andrew . Dont listen to the naysayer. Take the comcast business speed test. Knock me down with a feather. Really . Get faster speeds or more savings, or well give you 150. Come on. Hes the guy. But hes been right, joe. Comcast business. Really . Two quarters in a row. Built for business. Joe who . Joe livonia. You know joe. I do. But people at home are going who is that . We talk about it. Lets get down to the new some people have been paying York Stock Exchange where jim attention. At least a few. Cramer joins us now. We dont need, you know, it was theyre still okay, still and this morning in rnabe keepi fine. I think. Its forecast unchanged. I know, i know, i know, i did theyre looking for acceleration next quarter. See didnt see the whole game overall the street seems to be but one really nice pass from locked into this notion that the Fourth Quarter is going to be sanchez. But you know, when you play something of a comedown of the really tough teams youve got to expect you cant win them all, Fourth Quarter. Though it was at home, wasnt tomorrow we get the big survey . Big survey, and i can tell it . Thats pretty much what chip you its very optimistic. Kelly said after the game. Its optimistic on holiday look, we got beat by a better spending and views on the team, maybe we can come up with economy. And some interesting stuff on a new game plan, talking about gas prices and the stock market we have tomorrow. Okay. Eagles seahawks. Marshawn winch running wild. Thanks, steve. You live in nerd heaven. And Richard Sherman did shut you do. You are in a nerdy environment where you think everybody else down one side. It was very tough game. Is under says the guy from m. I. T. I think people i stayed until right. The end but, boy, the place was going to be my first question of empty. Jim, just not that you care, i mean you, finally got a coach, paulsen. Finally, and im going back joining us on now is jim paulsen how long am i going back wishing at Wells Capital management. And before the jobs report on the eagles had a coach, i mean . Monday, jim outlined a cautious andy reid was in five nfc outlook for 2015 with equities. Still probably saying the same championships. Not a bad guy. Richie a good guy, too, i stuff. I cant wait to ask you some of these. First time the good news becomes knew him. All of these guys are good. A bad news scenario and also jim you are saying underweight the chip kelly is is something. U. S. In 2015. Hell figure it out. I mean, look, we ran into the have you said that before . Team that Peyton Manning saw, maybe better on defense. No, not for quite a while, that defense is incredible. Joe. Marshawn lynch is hard to bring theres some really strong wall down. Were a good team. Street consensus themes right theyre a better team. Now. And one is the u. S. Is the place jim, quickly, weve had a discussion today, and i think it was a useful one, that all of to be. The good things that help a and rates could stay lower for longer. Market trade higher are very i think 2015 might result in well known by just about disappointing every one of those everyone, i think most people think its a slam dunk next themes. I would tilt against them, i year. Worst well say is high single guess, in portfolios. Digits but its going higher. Do you think, is there any theres i totally agree the chance that all of the good news u. S. Is doing a lot better. Is reflected here and the next thing is that maybe the rates im with joe. Start going up, fed is perceived i dont know if its 4 in the to be behind the curve . Fourth quarter, but i think maybe its not clear sailing were north of 3 and were next year . Is that possible . Rapidly diminishing unemployment you cant have japan in a big in this country. I think the u. S. Is doing a lot recession. Better. But i think the stock market europe, if they go into a big reflects a lot of that already. Recession, and china slow, have the currency go up very high and see the returns that we got in i think theyve got better bets 20147 you knee one of the in 2015 and doing better in countries to do better, or those markets the last couple europe to do better, because theres too much international. Years and that i think are likely to bounce in the 2015. And when were seeing is the currency is just a killer. So i would like to think, if one look, weve got not only gas of those if one of those prices hitting global economies everywhere in a positive places, china, europe, they come back online, japan comes back fashion, but youve got policy online, i think we can do single officials and most other places digits maybe better. Outside the United States that are trying to push their but bun has to. Economies up. Were just being hurt by the i think theres good odds they rest of the world. I love the fact that oils succeed in doing that next year. Coming down. And if they do, not only will but someone else has to have growth because of lower oil. Those stock markets do better, and im not seeing it yet. But i think their currencies weve got to go. But in terms on a scale of one will get a bid as well. So if what the ecb is trying to to ten, how bad is the sentiment . Ow overly come placeness are we do is successful, then i think right now . The euro gets a bid. Hedge fund are shorting. I mean, i dont know, six. If what abenomics is successful, look, i just think as soon as hedge funds switch direction, i think it gets a bid. Theyre like old retail. Not only the stock markets but remember retail comes in at top. The currencies do better as well. At the top of the show and how its hedge fund. When they cover, theyre at the ive been thinking about it more and more, i was trying to find top. Interesting. When they decide they cant out what is the word thats the take it anymore, that will be the top. Opposite of stagflation and i right now fighting it tooth and nail. Think it might be goldilocks. Its retail thats smart, not then i was thinking i can write hedge funds. Down ten reasons to be harbaugh goes to jets or optimistic about stock prices in giants . Jets, man. 2015. I cant even think of a negative waiting for that ryan house reason which makes me think its to come on the market. Already in the market. Morgan is back from the and then even the republicans farm. We asked her to milk a cow, and taking over, paulsen. She will show us how it went. In this accident. The probusiness, proprivate sector people come in. Its time to sell, probably, right . Look at what weve had the past six years with basically a rush to euro entitlement state. Here we are the market doubled. I just i agree, joe. I think the whole foundation of this bull market weve been in since 2009 has been climbing a chronic wall of worry. Thats really been the primary catalyst for this run. That to me is over. Should we be flatter down in 2015 . It wouldnt surprise you . It wouldnt surprise me. I havent got an official target year end yet. Because there was no accident. I will in the next couple weeks. I think its flattish. Volvos most advanced accident avoidance systems ever. It could certainly end down. And the dollar finally starts the future of safety, from the company that has always brought you selling off, too, you think. The future of safety. Which is also contrary to give the gift of volvo everything. This season and well give you no ones out there talking about that. Your first months payment on us. No. I want to ask jim quick you say the market factored this in. A world where they think theyre going to be 2 in the United States. But the big debate now, take the jobs number is whether or not this economy is shifting into a higher gear. And then you have to ask the question, has the stock market figured out or already discounting the economy going at a higher gear . I dont think they have. I mean, they have in terms of growth to some extent. Whap they havent factors and i dont think is the rates have Many Americans who have prescriptions got to come up. Fail to stay on them. Look. The big theres two big thats why we created programs which encourage People Potential risks in that job to take their medications regularly. Report going forward. One of them we got friday. And that is the wage number so join us as we raise a glass to everyone who remembered today. Jumps up to. 4 gain. If we get another gain next bottoms up, america. See you tomorrow. Month, watch how much wall same time. Streets mindset starts to change. What youre saying, even if another innovation from cvs health. Because health is everything. The fed doesnt raise rates we did it. Faster than people think, if we did it theres another big number and we get down under 12 , wall streets going to think theyre behind the curve. Theyre going to start thinking theyre behind the curve. Im worried about Unemployment Rate. Its been falling at 1 a year it is official, we gave the people what they wanted. And for the last three years running. The nations strongest lte signal. This is a big deal in the last year its fallen another 1. 5 . Soak it in just let it wash over you like a warm bath. Weve got 2 payroll growth in this country right now and the working age population is only growing at. 5 which means its on track to fall 1. 5 a year. Imagine sitting here next year, steve, and we have an Unemployment Rate of 4. 8 . You think well still be deba debating i have a hard time with this conversation, jim. Youre telling me i need to be worried about the Unemployment Rate falling and wage gains. If i get that with somewhat higher rates, im a happy man Morgan Brennan, back from and probably a happy stock dairy country, and she brought back video of traditional investor. Its got to do with the market. Milking and how technology has steve, i dont think the taken over. And i learn a lot on break. Four udders on every cow, though stock market has 18. 5 times earnings. I dont think theyll be happy dogs might have more. The process automated over if Wage Inflation ticks up. Last 30 years. If you cant see that usually we were in wisconsin to talk whats good for wall street is about record high dairy prices and what the effect of that will not good for main street. You know that. I dont know thats true. Be going into 2015. I dont believe that. Thats a discussion weve however, the process of milking been having for the past six a cow, very difficult. So we put a video together. Years. Its been good for wall street. Its on cnbc. Com, you can fine should it be a surprise whats that as well as an article. Good for main street is bad for take a look at this footage, when i tell you this took all wall street . Day, thats me finally getting milk. No. I think its good. Took all day. Squeeze and pull . Steve, longterm that may be squeeze and pull at the same right, but shortterm it isnt necessarily right. Give me jobs. Time. Give me wages. Let the cow know youre there. When you do this by hand and we want all those things but you immediately start worrying know what youre doing, it takes 20 minutes. About jim, send me your report machine takes five. Again. Ill look at it. A big difference. Did you warm your hands up or all right. When was the last time that went right at it . You were underweight like this so i started with latex though . Gloves to keep my hands clean. The cow didnt like that so its been a long time, becky. I just didnt think until now in much. Took the gloves off. This recovery that the attitude thought you might have been doing Something Else with the was so poor about the future i dont know. Latex gloves, i dont let people that stocks were prepared for the worst. And this is the first time i get near me either. Feel theyre more prepared for good hygiene. Thank you. That does it for us today. The better. All right. Thanks, jim. Very moving piece. Coming up, oil prices time for squawk on the sliding further. Street. U. S. Consumers benefitting from lower gas prices, but the story in venezuela much more dire. Global hot spots when squawk box returns. E good monday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Financial noise im Carl Quintanilla with jim faber. Premarket is lower after the dow failed to crack 18,000 friday by financial noise just nine points. A bunch of cross currents today, pharma m a, weak mcdonalds sales in focus, oil is below 65, financial noise a new fiveyear low as Morgan Stanley cuts its target for brent to 70, down from 9 pa. Financial noise ten will thank you. , sir . Ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. I order b14. I get b14. No surprises. Buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster White Knuckle thrill ride. Youre promised one speed. But do you consistently get it . You do with comcast business. And often even more. Its reliable. Just like kung pao fish. Thank you, ping. Reliably fast internet starts at 89. 95 a month. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Call it a crude awakening for the worlds oil markets. Brent crude hitting a fiveyear low this morning. Wti crude falling as well. Here with us now is an expert on the global oil markets. Good morning. Good morning. So whats the lowest this thing goes in the next year . You know, our futures think were looking at 63, 80 on brent. Sorry. 63 on wti, 65 on brent. Were there now. Were there in the terms of the size and the selloff. I think were kind of reaching bottom because the fundamentals are not terrible. We dont have a huge overhang. Its about a millionbarrel overhang at the moment. And how nimble do you think we are here in the u. S. Pulling back in terms of more production so its really so by six months from now this supply story wont be the same . If you look at u. S. Production, about 25 of u. S. Production will be at 70. But the lead time is about nine months. But im looking at the rest of the supply complex. And thats where i think you start to see barrels come off. Nigeria came back over the summer. That was a million extra barrels at a time of soft demand. Those two countries could fall back off and youd have instability in other key producing oil companies. Did rvc, did you write anything or say anything about a drop below 70 . I dont think to be fair, i dont think a lot of people saw this coming. Yeah. But did anyone . You know, theres certain people and ill give credit to certain analyst who is said from the beginning that the american story would usher in but said it wouldnt. I could name names that said its going to be a false idea that supply is going to get to the point where it offsets the rising demand every year. I know them. They come on all the time. At 90, when it went to 85 they said the market doesnt understand the fundamentals. There was a perception and i think this is where i believed early on the saudis would defend the floor because i looked at their expenditure. I thought the minister had been talking for the last couple years 100 was the floor. Then i remember sitting next to a former ceo who said the saudis are always slow to cut production. A lot of us were looking for an opec response initially. Were at 64. 80 and you think the low is 63. 80 . Were looking at historically. Then i go back to sentiment is really negative right now. But how much Spare Capacity do you have out there . I dont know what the inherent value really is. They had one supply shock. What if a hundred was an opec cartel price . What if it was all along . I dont think it was a cartel. What it was was 300. 5 million barrels. Thats what supported the market with historic ehighs and unmanned. Dont we always see, dont we always see the supply and demand fundamentals take over where if its worth that much, people are going to go crazy trying to find it. And they are going to find it and sooner or later its going to swing and were going to have more than we need . Isnt that the way it works . In this type of price environment, do we get a resetting . If were going to cut backs and demand is going to get a bump, what does 2016 look like . Demand will get a bump. It is. All these people that are driving all these ugly wedge shaped cars now are going to go back and be like becky and have four suvs. Leisman said he called it. If you bought a hybrid, you should have something bad happen to you. Ooh. No, im kidding. Like a wedge shape hybrid. One of those ugly im kidding. I know. The priuses. Look anotht me, im so green. So well see. Well see. Im writing that down. Im glad if they said 88. 80 because they might have. I would tell you what you need to watch next year is watch some of the other global hot spots. Watch libya. Watch nigerinigeria. North america is immune to political unrest. These countries are not. Do you remember when we were stuck at 90 and all the hot spots were going crazy . We said at the time its barely able to hold 90 with all these things happening. And thats when it looked top heavy. But now were at a low. Were oversold. Okay. Thank you. And then the dollar reverses. You remember the pontiac aztec . My god. That was the ugliest car ever made. That was not a hybrid though. That was made on purpose to be ugly. Thats all i can decide. The designer said im going to make the ugliest car. I do. Coming up, youtube stars getting howd you remember that . Youtube stars are getting bonuses. Did you see this . Youtube is trying to keep their big stars from going other places. I didnt know. Is youtube going to turn into netflix or something . Kind of sort of. The free version. Its all good. Content gets valued more. Well tell you why next. Plus you wont believe how much grumpy cat has made for its owner. Is that not redundant . Grumpy cat . Does anyone know a cat whos not grumpy . I used to have a cat that acted like a dog. I dont like cats. Im with you on cats. Really . I have two dogs. Then the next hour mcdonalds set to release Sales Numbers. Well bring the reaction from an analyst. I dont know my credit score. Thats really important. I mean i dont know my credit score. Dont you want to buy a house. Like, ever . You should probably check out credit karma, its free. Credit . Karma . Free . Credit karma. Really free credit scores. You can bring back from a trip around the world. But you cant always bring back customer data. Because many customers dont like it when their data moves around. Can i go now . If youre going to do business globally, you need a cloud that can keep your data where it needs to be. Today, theres a new way to work and its made with ibm. A wi welcome back to squawk box. Youtube offering bonuses to some of the top video makers in exchange for a multiyear exclusivity bill. By online services. Most content producers receive 55 of that revenue from ads that appear alongside their videos. Some numbers are going up higher. Content is king, so people are willing to pay for it. Or youtube is. Do you know grumpy cat . I do not. I do not. An internet sensation sparked a line of products and a film. The cat has earned 99. 5 million for owner tabitha bundison. She said she quit her job as a waitress within days of the cats first appearance on social media. Is that really true . 99 million . I believe it. Ive seen the toys in fao schwartz. When you talk about the aztec being an ugly car, this is like an ugly cat that works. Grumpy cat has an agent who specializes in internet cats. Product endorsements include iced coffee and friskies cat food. I need to look into this. Theres grumpy cats. Com. If it could make you a hundred Million Dollars. This is amazing, actually. They have all sorts of merchandise. Theres billboards with the grumpy cat on it. For a hundred million bucks, i think you could snuggle up to that kitty. No, i cant. They have stuffed animals. You could do a sweater of the month. Anyway, when we come back this morning, the city of atlanta has one of the Fastest Growing populations in america. The mayor is working to implement president obamas order. The Atlanta Mayor will join us in just a few minutes. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around 329 a month. Welcome back to squawk box. Among the stories front aerocenter, merck is buying cubist for a 35 premium. Analyst barbara ryan will join us at 8 30 a. M. To talk about that deal. In other things, some news over the weekend weve been highlighting. Also weak data out of asia overnight. Trade data was weak. Japans Third Quarter gdp shows the company was in a recession. It was revised even lower than previously. And blackstone is selling its portfolio of 23 Office Buildings for 3. 5 billion. Its the Largest Office sale in seven years. There was a huge fire in Downtown Los Angeles overnight. The blaze engulfed a sevenstory Apartment Building that was under construction. No injuries, thankfully, to report. But more than 250 firefighters responded to that. Wow. Thats a huge fire as we said. Also, check out this story this morning. A daredevil whos also a naturalist tried to film himself being eaten alive by an anaconda in south america. The man was wearing a black armored suit slathered in pig blood. When he felt his arm start to break, he ordered his team to save him. At that point just the top of his head was in the animals jaws. Many had criticized it calling it cruel. But now the man is getting grief for calling the whole thing off. This is one of the dumbest things ive ever heard. You cant win. But it is one of the dumber things ever. But it isnt that they promoted this like crazy when whats his name went across the wire in chicago. Right. And i was kind of excited about it. Im not surprised. But it isnt that nice to the snake. Its not. Just because you can do it doesnt mean you should be doing this. I didnt think the snake would survive it anyway. Plus some people dont like snakes but if you look at how long snakes have stayed just the way they are, that shows you how well they do what they do and occupying that part of its niche. Its ecological niche. Advanced in terms of maybe behavior not as advanced as us, but in terms of those things being conserved over millions and millions of years. Were not that old. We havent been around that long. Snakes are reptiles, for gods sake. The annual meeting in San Francisco today. Meg tirrell is there with some of the trends that we alluded to earlier that were seeing in cancer research. Hi, meg. Hello again. Thats right. Were here at the american associate hematology meeting where weve seen updates over the weekend from Big Companies and small. One of the most closely watched one is agios. They showed a significant response rate. A lot of these patients had tried other drugs and had stopped responding. People are very excited about these data. The company saying that was just a phase one trial, they are going to start a global registration setting. A late stage study next year in their furthest along drug. A lot of progress being seen there. This has a fiveyear survival rate of 25 . Its the most common acute leukemia among adults. A big need there. Its important to see survival data. We dont know how long the drug is helping people live. But again, starting that next stage study. We also saw some data from Bristol Meyers and merck. Weve mostly been seeing data on those in solid tumors like melanoma. Thats what merck is approved for. But now were seeing the potential for blood cancers. Analysts saying its not baked into the models yet. That could be further upside for those drugs. Another form of therapy, we talked about cart. Which is taking blood out of the patients body, reequipped their cells and reinserting it. Theres still going to be a lot more data coming today. Well also be talking with ceos here at the conference. But also through partners. Theyre partnered with agios and axeleron. A lot coming out of the pipe line. Okay, meg. Well have barb aara ryan on. If you have any questions you can email me. I dont think youre part of that interview, but let me know. Shes one of the top analysts. Thank you. Coming up, the mayor of atlanta is now hes joining forces with other top cities to tackle the issue of Immigration Reform and well be speaking to the mayor in just a moment. How could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the Aerospace Industry in the u. S. . At t. Rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. Its just one reason over 70 of our mutual funds beat their 10year lipper average. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. The futures right now, take a look. See how the market is setting itself up. We do have some red arrows. Thats after bad news in asia overnight. Dow jones looked like it would open lower. And the s p 500 looked like it would open down about five points. A group of mayors will meet in new york city this morning to talk about how to implement the president s executive order on immigration. Joining us to talk about what to expect is kasim reed. He is the mayor of atlanta. That city has the second fast eest growing foreignborn population if had the United States. Hell be joining mayor de blasio later this morning and mr. Mayor thank you for being here. Thank you for having me. Good morning. So what do you think about what the president has done and what does this mean in terms of what you and other mayors will in turn be doing when you go back home . I think the president made the right decision, because weve waited too long on this issue. And its time to get to work. Obviously being in new york city, i think its the appropriate place to start the conversation. Mayor de blasio is in the effort today. You know mayor bloomberg worked on this same issue for some time. My city between 2000 and 2012 has seen a 22 increase in its foreignborn population. We need to be ready for this. This issue is coming to cities across United States of america. Today well be talking about mayors from San Francisco, seattle, washington, d. C. Were coming together to have a unified strategy to deal with an issue thats coming to all of our doors candidly. What does it mean practically . What does it mean you could do different . Well, practically it means were going to have literally millions of citizens across the United States that are going to need services that cities provide. And many people are going to be coming out of the shadows for services. Question is, how do you stand up operations within your government to handle these individuals in the city of atlanta right now . One in three children under the ages of 18 or in foreignborn or nonglish speaking households. How do we absorb those young people into our School System . Couldnt think of a better place under mayor de blasios leadership to start this conversation and really create a tool box, if you will. Certainly considering the fact that one in three americans can trace their roots to someone who came through ellis island. It sounds like you believe this is something thats long