Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20151222 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 22, 2015

Part of this, at least with wti is because that january contract rolled. Youre looking at a february contract. We were already in a february contract for brent but every time you see that roll youll see prices come up slightly. The question is whether they can hold on to that. It would be under 35 i think if you just added 28 to where we close. Did that start yesterday . I didnt notice it late yesterday. Yesterday morning it was not. It was weaker yesterday morning. Was it rolled already . No, yesterday morning we were still january. Lets tell you about whats else is going on. We have a flood of Economic Data coming up. We have a final read on 3rd quarter gdp and at 10 00 existing home sales and the richmond fed survey. Dow component nike is posting quarterly results. Shares of that company up more than 35 this year already. A big day for last minute shopping and shipping. Its going to have 36 million packages today. Meantime amazon prime says its consumers have until midnight eastern time today to order and still get those packages and have them arrive by Christmas Eve. Nike is just a horse. Tripled in the last, i dont know how many years i was reading that. Just incredible. 110 billion Apparel Company. How do you start an Apparel Company . Still up and around and in your lifetime you start a Company Selling sneakers and move into Everything Else and still cheaper than under armour. Corporate news google in talks with ford. For help building a selfdriving car. I want to know what to help ford, google is helping ford s that it . Sounds like it. Automotive news says a Contract Manufacturing deal is expected to be announced during the annual Consumer Electronics show. Google is testing small bubble shaped prototype vehicles that it designed. It looks like a bug or one of those crappy little smart cars. Remember ford just opened up an Engineering Plant in Silicon Valley. Its the first time they have set anything up there and its the first of the major auto makers to do that. Maybe theyre both getting a little help. More trouble for chipotle. Its a new strain of e. Coli. A new strain linked to the chain. Five more people became sick after eating at two more locations that were nowhere near Cleveland Circle in boston or the west coast. Cdc says its unclear right now whether these new cases are related to the outbreak that started in october. Just last week the companys coceo and founder told jim cramer that the chain is safe. We visited the farms, the cdc was on a lot of the farms. We had our epidemiologists on firms and we could not pinpoint it to a certain location. I will say, though, that we can assure you today that there is no e. Coli in chipotle. We have thoroughly tested our food and our services and we are confident that chipotle is a safe place to eat. Its odd though because its been around for years and years and years. Dropping down near 20 since the end of october on when the food safety issues first came to light. This news was released around 245 yesterday by the cdc. The stock lost almost 1 billion dollars in market cap. How many points was it that it was down . About 5. 5. Its a big company. Yeah. Right. Theres the chart. Lets also tell you about a fight for talent. Credit suisse is accusing ubs of raiding the ranks of its Private Banking business. Credit suisse filed an arbitration claim saying that about 70 of its 300 brokers left for the firm in three months. Theyre winding down the u. S. Private bank and said it would make it easy for brokers to move their business to wells fargo. Sec will be pursuing an amended civil case against stephen choen. They will drop the part of the case involving the supervision of the trader but it does plan to pursue a claim that chohen failed to supervise matthew martoma. He is serving a nine year sentence for insider trading. Settlement talks are on going but the parties are not close on terms and that comes after that. New developments in the Sumner Redstone saga. A judge rejecting the petition to have him interviewed by a psychiatrist as part of his evaluation of his mental capacity. But in a partial victory for his former girlfriend the court will allow depositions of the viacom ceo and two of the doctors. Its all very complicated. The case is important to viacom and cbs shareholders as redstone still reports both of the companies. And Sherry Redstone had been in discussions or he wanted to pay her 1 billion for her 20 stake in National Amusements to effectively buyout the daughter which is a complicated conversation to have with your father. He needed the pay like big tax bills. Theres going to be tax bills. Two women are now suing him. Who want more money. Thats another piece of it but i believe the conversation with sherry was one over control. Also according to that article sherry has a separate, socalled secret deal such that he becomes the chairman of cbs once and if she were to be in charge. But all is just speculation. She has been a strange but apparently now spending lots of time with him. Got rid of the girlfriends. I think the tape were showing is a couple of years old. Saw a picture of him. He looked great in 2012 or 13 or so. In tech news a lot of focus on apple right now. Its hard for me to talk about this with a straight face because there are actually analysts now that are noticing that maybe the move to a trillion dollars isnt in the birth right of the company. Theyre on track now. The shares are. For the worst month in nearly two years. Down about 10 . The market cap now 598 billion. So under 600. I wish i had written down the names of all the genius analysts that ive argued with over the past year about apple but this morning, theyre cutting the price target to 130. I dont want to tell them that its at 107. But coming down from 135. Its a start. Its at least a start. The stock remains rated market perform. It doesnt matter. Theyre all the same. Yeah. But maybe some day i dont know i wouldnt come on if i were some of the analysts that were so sure that the revenue stream would never be interrupted. There could never be anyone else that makes any type of mouse trap that could compete and now all i hear is that theyre desperately trying to find a new revenue stream other than iphone sales. Did you watch the 60 minutes piece . No. No, because you were at the yeah, sweet 16. It was not my party but blake. Happy birthday blake. Yeah. Its coming up but it was a sweet 16 party. But the rangers did not cooperate. We ended the game after the first period. They were winning 31. When he been cheering and forget about those six goals scored by the capitals in the next two periods. Lundqvist is like swiss cheese suddenly. I mean, i think if you pay people, like Harrison Ford getting paid too much money. Too much money. No way. Were going to talk about that in shares. Tease that. Were going to talk about that in shares. I did see how much hes making. Do you know how much he made for the first one . 10,000 dollars. Hes awesome. The movie was great. I did see it. You didnt see it . Not yet. It will happen. Its a holiday tie. Is this red . Im doing some more christmas wear later this week. You have to watch out. Im ready. Im allergic. And i start googling it today, warm weather and ragweed which has always been a problem, supposedly its everywhere. Climate change is not your friend. Climate change. Im being effected by climate change. Now i might need to ask viewers for some help because i had been using claratind. I couldnt get it. Because im walter white. Im going to start snorting it or something. I asked the pharmacist and they got me two over the counter things and put them together. Like a zyrtec without d. They checked your license. Because i had bought it. How about allegrad . I couldnt get the d anything. Youre locked out. Penelope can guy it. But claits not working anym. Its only every 7 to 12 years. Do i need allegra or zyrtec . You need a allergist to tell you. We digress. A check on the markets the morning. Lets look at europe and the early trading there. Youll see that things are relatively flat. Ftse is up by. 2 at this point but youre looking at modest gains. Relatively flat for the dax and in asia overnight the nikkei was slightly weaker and slight gains for the hang seng and shanghai composites. Check out the ten year note. The yield is sitting at 2. 2 . Just above that level. If you want to take a look at the dollar this morning. Youll see that the dollar is down against both the euro and the yen. Euro at 109. 26. Finally gold prices at this point look like they are down by about 3. 1,076 an ounce t. Big news though is what the oil market has been doing so well continue to watch that very closely today. Joining us right now is john. He is Senior Market strategist at Morgan Stanley wealth management. Also chris who is chief financial economist at bank of tokyo mitsubishi. Thank you for being here. Its good to be here. Lets talk about the market. At this point were looking at stocks being down for the year. Big turn from what we had seen the four trading years before that and a lot of people saying this is what we can get used to for 2016. Do you think thats the case . It could be. Look, we still have a little bit of time left, right . So we may have an end of year rally. Usually the second half of december turns out to be better than the first half of december. So Im Still Holding out a little bit of hope. I do believe in santa claus but we could end the year slightly up but i think next year could be a better year than this year. If you look at global gdp we went through a really rough time in 2015. Thats reflected in the s p and the high yield market and the oil market and i think well get a rebound just by calendar effects next year. Oil may be up slightly and the dollar may be flat and Company Earnings in the u. S. Could do better next year than this year. So i think up better than this year. Not a great year but better than this year. Lets talk about Interest Rates christ because what happens next year is really anybodys guess. This morning Larry Sommers lays out his premise where he thinks the rates in the United States will remain lower for longer than the fed ex pekted. Goldman sachs has a different view. They expect the fed to hike a quarter point every quarter on twice the pace that the market is currently discounted. I think four times. Bernanke left the building and left us with the idea that when they go theyll raise rates. Not 200 like greenspan. Its been out there for a long time. I hope sommers view doesnt win out. I dont think this idea that theres secular stagnation and not enough deman, its nonsense. If the fed was doing their policy off of 18 million car sales, business cap ex is extremely high. Higher than the last cycle. Even with mining and drilling and oil and gas drilling down its still high. The fed funds rate should be at neutral now. Spreads are blowing out worse than since 2008 and the next move is going to be qe. Yeah, i dont know where this got going. Why would the fed you have to be a professional. Its the european banks theyre talking about. I know but the bill market is a little bit crazy right now. You lasted two days. But they have nothing. They have to reset the only tool that works. Cut. Its not 5 . Thats not a real unemployment number. Everything. Jack welch was here last week and he raised some real issues. I get this all the time. They are like why doesnt it feel good out there. I think its a baby boom generation. Jack welch looks at the stronger dollar which is hurting all kinds of exports. The entire 20 of the s p that are reliant on Energy Prices that have gotten crushed. What do you do with that . Thats a problem. Thats a high flying sector. Commodity, theres a boom bust cycle. Were just looking for crude oil to bottom. Theyre bond traders. Theyre long. They think the world sending. Because were in trouble. Because you get this contagion effect in the high yield market. You see it spread a little bit where not only a High Yield Company is having trouble financing and Telecom Companies so that would be a bad scenario. I dont think that occurs. If we touch it we touch it briefly and go up from that. Its only 3 Million Barrels. We grew demand by 1. 8 Million Barrels a day. You can close that gap quickly and this consensus view of oil is going to stay low for longer is probably a sign of being near the bottom. Part is the change in mutual fund rules so if you want to be able to maintain you have to own treasury securities so you have the supply demand coming into the market. The multiple layers of leverage in the market its not a banking crisis. It is an Energy Crisis right now. By the way, the euro dollar part of the spread is discounting a fed rate hike in march. So its not like a disaster se in a yore. Theyre looking for rates to go up in march. Do you think, john, that just in terms of stock prices even though you dont think were at the verge of a disaster, you dont think stocks are cheap here . Cheap versus bonds. Its comparable to 16 times forward pe back in 1982 when Interest Rates or the cost of capital was 10 plus for a lot of companies. You think theres room for expansion. Theres room for expansion and earnings growth. So our forecast is 4 next year but theres upside potential on that if the dollar stabilizes. John, chris, great to see you both. Thank you for coming in. Coming up when we return its going to be a white christmas, at least out west. A mix of wind and Winter Weather slamming areas like lake tahoe to washington state. We got a live report from the Weather Channel straight ahead but first waas we head to a bre, heres a look back at this date in history. While youre watching this, im hacking your company. Grabbing your data. Stealing your customers secrets. Theres an army of us. Relentlessly unpicking your patchwork of security. Think youll spot us . You havent so far. The next wave of the internet requires the next wave of security. Were ready. Are you . A mix of wind and Winter Weather from lake tahoe to washington state. Snowy conditions causing big traffic delays on major highways and blizzard conditions making travel treacherous into Northern California and then in idaho the Valley County Sheriffs Office is encouraging people to stay home because of the weather. Sounds like great skiing. Now to the National Weather forecast, kate parker joins us from the Weather Channel, good morning. Good morning. Lets look at what were talking about here. Just a mess of travel for entire east coast. Look at all problems that we have. 95 corridor is going to be a soaker. 80 going to be a problem and 90 being the problem. We have the rain in the forecast. Tomorrow we continue with the showers. You wont see as much of it in maine. In the south its another story. Were talking about blinding downpours and potential for severe weather. Big problems for us right . Watch this. Along i10 we can see the strong thunderstorms today. Those stretch farther north into atlantic. Thunderstorm is the big day for severe weather. This is where we could see the potential for tornadoes in addition to damaging winds not to mention the fact that we could see very heavy downpours that will cause ponding on the roads so you definitely have to take your time if youre traveling on this holiday. Its going to be great along i35 today. No problems for you heading north from dallas to wichita across 70 until you get to the front range. Thats where you start to see problems as we still have a winter storm in the west guys. So a lot of travel trouble. Kate, thank you very much. Lets switch gears to politics. Candidates are out in iowa, New Hampshire, tennessee, arkansas and South Carolina today. Nbcs tracie potts joins us with a look at how republicans are increasingly targeting Hillary Clinton. Well and theres a reason for that. On the democrat side she is out in front by 25 right now. So clinton is finding herself in the cross hairs not just of donald trump but of several republicans. Donald trump in a blue state focussing on Hillary Clinton. Hes a liar. On Lindsey Graham dropping out. And the new attack on the media. I hate him. Jeb bush, a frequent target of trump. His family is so ashamed. Bush says its not funny anymore. Bush too taking aim at clinton saying were making the right moves against isis. No were not. Were not in the right place. Chris christie tells New Hampshire his party needs to focus on clinton and not on each other. Im saving my brawn for september of 2016 because its going to be my job to make sure that Hillary Clinton doesnt get within ten miles of the white house. Marco rubio also drawing distinctions between democrats and republicans. The Democratic Party is controlled today by radical elements that lean to the left that want to see more government control over our economy and our lives. The Top Democrats are in iowa where voters will decide in just six weeks. Today dr. Ben carson is in South Carolina where hell go after the southern conservatives that just found out less than 24 hours agatha their home state candidate wont be on the ballot because hes dropping out of the race. Just a couple of weeks ago we were sayin

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