Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20160712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 12, 2016

Close to 85 points. Nasdaq up by about 27. Also take a look at treasury yields. Yesterday at one point the 30year hit a record low yield again. The 10year is yielding above where it had been. 1. 458 . Lets take a look at what happened overnight in asia after those strong results here in the United States. It carried out through the night. The hang seng up by 1. 6 . In europe in the early trade markets are stronger there as well. At least most of them. The dax is up 1. 5. The ftse just went slightly negative, but take a look at italy. That stock narcotic up about 2 . Spain the ibex is up 1. 9 . Crude oil prices, you can see equities higher this morning. Yesterday wti closed at a twomonth low. This morning up. On todays economic agenda, theres one report. Expected to show inventory rose slightly, but we have plenty of fed speaks today. Cleveland fed president spoke overnight in sidney. Chef said maintains stability in the Financial Markets should not be an explicit goal for the ed. A lot of discussion after the financial crisis of 2009, what role should the fed play. She argues the central bank should use Interest Rates to head off a crisis if better suited tools fail. Former fed chairman ben borrow nancy is in japan this morning. Officials say bernanke discussed what they can do to end deflation and achieve sta sustainable growth. Im surprised joe, did you not read this in the times today, no ignoring the alarm bell sounding over bonds. Commentators with breath less over stocks yesterday, but smart people know you have to look to the bond market. Where do you hide from the brexit . Anywhere. I dont know. Stocks might be one might be one idea. In Corporate News shlgs the securities and Exchange Commission reportedly investigating whether tesla breached security laws. Looking into the auto makers failure to disclose the fatal crash in may involving one of the vehicles with self driving technology. According to the wall street journal, the investigation is in an early stage. No world on whether regulators were watching squawk box for the last three weeks as we talked about whether a ceo is in an position to Say Something is not material. Its not and then go ahead with the secondary offering and all the other stuff that happened. We beat this horse to death and now its kind of interesting theyre looking to see whether we get a determination. Ive seen an article written to death i think it was on article watch or something that the pedestal is starting to crumble a little under elon musk. Theres at least some cracks. I think thats premature. And from investors who see him as a visionary who built somebody unbelievable. I have spoke within a a lot of tesla drivers who are not bothered by any of this. Look, the car is fantastic. I tell you, i interviewed elon musk a long time ago. He has just sold pay pel. Tesla was a glimpse in the eye. The hyper loop, the electric car, he was bald and he became her suit. He was bald. He hairline was back to the middle. He cured baldness. Hes amir cal man. Yes. I dont know about hyper loop, but he is like hes like a ware wolf and he was really a bad kind of bald too. So i mean, hes a visionary. He can make anything happen. Yes. If you want to google it, google it. Bald elon. He was well on the way to a q ball. Youre dying to get him on the show, arent you. Would my life not be completely. All ecoa. Theres a ten year chart. Coa. Theres a ten year chart. That was right before the financial crisis it was up in the 40s. And will im not going you know, this is not necessarily an implication. Were not running out of how do they say . Why are you writing on your hand. Stuff i have to remember to. If i dont issuing i will forget. You and sarah palin. Its a reminder list. Its somebody i have to email. Anyway, ten dollars, 10. Alcoa trades at 10. Thats where it trades. The Company Still expects growth of 14 in the global auto market. So many cars use aluminum now, but nothing has happened. If you talk to anybody in the aluminum industry, they would say theres dumping, trade issues that come underway. Low inflation. But the main thing a lot of them say is dumping from china. Could anyone else have done anything . R restructured the company. Sea Gate Technologies cutting 6500 jobs. Also raising Fourth Quarter revenue and xerox is reportedly going to buy rr donly. No deal is imminent though. In jan january, xerox was planning to split. You dont remember that . You said he didnt last. Right. News breaking in just the last hour. International tribunal has found theres no legal basis for chinas nineline. Thats the line on the map where they claim rights to the South China Sea. Suggesting china has interfered with traditional fip piano fishing rights. Joins us now with the big question. Are the chinese going to listen . They said they dont care what this organization says. Yes, theyve already come out quite strongly saying they are going to not accept this case. In fact, this case is really a landmark decision that could have widespread implications across asia. The issue is chinas role in the South China Sea. China has basically laid claim to the entire body of water or almost the entire body of water. Many of its neighbors who are u. S. Alleys as well such as the philippines have long disputed beijings position. They went to the hag and has been arguing the claim in court. Now, this case was very closely watched because it was seen as a litmus test of how china approaches International Institutions and international law. It was also seen as a possible precedent for other countries such as vietnam to negotiate its own claims and then washington has also been closely monitoring this particular ruling because beijing has been challenging washingtons role in the region as well as the u. S. Led Security System that has long been in place here and really laid the groundwork and foundation for economic rise. Now the court handed down the ruling and it ruled against china. Saying that chinas claim and its description of the nineline has no legal basis. Already, michelle, the Chinese Government has been issuing plenty of statements. The Foreign Ministry said they wont accept this. The defense Ministry Said china will do everything it can to protect the sovereignty as well as the maritime rights. Whats worrying people here is the fear this could all lead to greater conflict. If the court ruled against china that it could lead to more aggression on the part of the chinese. Thats one of the things people are watching here and quite concerned about at this point. Wanted to point out issuing thanks so much. It is the reason were focused on this. In a time when the sentiment is very negative, this kind of decision could have pressured the stock market lower if it were already down, i think it would have done it more. This event, which i think there was a time you said this had happened, you should be worried. Nobody cares. Youre feeling a bole yens . Bole yent. One day it went above. Youre listening to the technician from yesterday. No, im saying a bole yent is when people all of a sudden get to where she said, 2400 s p. People go what is happening . To answer your question, will we escalate to some cold war level, who knows. Lets talk to two people here and see if either one of them. Well do the micro, macro, everything. The s p 500 finally traded alltime high. Nasdaq is trading alltime high. Jason pride, just from looking at the notes, do either one of you guys think that were not just set up for this horrific fall because of all the risks out there and the market is extended. Do you think this is a break out and potentially bolish . Youre worried about brexit now. You werent before. Youre doing a great job with our comments. Keep going. Hes a little friendlier to the market . Im friendlier to the market, yes. Not many people are. Theyre all like nervous nelly. Ultimately markets have done really well when theyve had reasons to be nervous. You solve those issues, markets have been able to rise. Today we continue to operate in a bad news is good news. By that, i mean we have pro proactive issues. That checks ecb. Seems to check the fed. If you were to come if you woke up out of a long sleep and someone said all right Interest Rates are really low and theyre expected to stay low. Inflation is not a concern almost anywhere in the world. Very few alternatives to anything else. Jobs are up and were at 4. 9 unemployment with no inflammation. All these things you put together if you hasnt been told for the last year and a half that things were so scary, all those project higher multiples. Weve got a full equity waiting, but were nervous. Weve got a full equity because of the things you said. A lot of the backdrop is set up for a decedent equity environment, but at the same time, equity valuations are above average. About 15 above what i consider to be fair. Its not 20 times. Its not extreme levels, but its high up. Were in the seventh year of an expansion now. You have a number of things you can pile on to each other to tell you, okay, this is a little bit riskier of a situation than where we were two or three years ago. Completely agree. Most recessions dont die of old age. They usually die when things heat up too much. They dont die of old age. Theyre killed. Theyre killed by something. The yield curve. Not a gladly slipping yield curve. I think people could miss this. The New York Times sayi in savvy economists know you look at the bond market. We should all be terrified. Isnt the bond market really the fed market . Yes. The sfral banks are dominating every Interest Rate thats set from short to long. Its not an economic predict terror at this point. Theyre responding to the global backdrop. They are. I think what do you in this situation you do recognize that equities are preferred over fixed income because the fixed income return is so meager, you position that way. You find other ways to build in defense. Were using options. Were using quality investing within stocks. Were tilting towards minimum toll tillty. Were trying to dampen the volatility as much possible. Youre assuming, i guess, that Interest Rates are going to stay low for a very long time. We heard from george yesterday. She was saying look she didnt vote to raise rates in june, but that was a timing issue. She might very well vote to raise them at the next meeting. Were not assuming that. Fixed income along the way. Is going to get reasonably hard in a rising environment. Bothey i mean, how do you kn . People have been wrong on this. Effectively trying to work through globalization. Then effectively its one set dealing with one policymaker, dealing with one set of economic decisions. We may be going back to that. Globalization is getting a bad rap. Theres certainly more there, but to the extent the Financial Markets have become just that. You cant just think about what is unemployment in new hampshire. That wind up driving things. Where you set up was, the fact is growth becomes exceptionally valuable. Hopefully well starlt getting that in the third quarter. This should be a little bit of an Inflection Point Getting Better than the last four or five quarters where it was an earnings recession. That should be better too. I think thats happening, but at the same time the Earnings Division coming from analyst right now. We thought we were coming out of it. We saw a pop upward and now the analyst revisions have turned negative yet again coming sboog the Second Quarter earning reports. Were sitting facing a large number of analyst. Just when the prior year numbers reflect weve dropped off,those are going to start showing positive too. We go from a dollar to two, great from a base math perspective. Certainly helpful. Paid to be nervous. We are paid to beer er beer when you have fixed income and a third of the fixed income basket is delivers negative yields. Are you apologizing for having to have some equities. I am. Alltime highs on the s p. You know, in a market thats gone from, you know, 800 in the dow when i started to, you know, to 18,000, its hit a lot of new highs. I havent been nervous at every single new high. Joe tries to make me apologize on air every time im here. You tried this. That i would say would be good, chemoengineering. Do you believe in Global Warming . Yes. Go back. See you later. Check the reports, joe. When we come back this morning, we will talk about Todays Campaign events. They are less about the head liners and who is sharing the stage. Hillary clinton will be joined by senator bernie sanders. Donald trump will campaign with potential vp pick mike pence. He was campaigning with chris christie. Well have the latest from the campaign trail next. Bernie sanders will join Hillary Clinton at a rally this morning. Mike pence will campaign with p donald trump. Lets talk politics. Youve havent endorsed anybody yet. No, im going to vote for the republican nominee, whoever that is, im assuming its going to be donald trump. Do you have anany doubts . I think as we get closer to day, people are realizing it would be awfully difficult on a practical basis to deny the votes of 13 million republican primary voters. I think we have to Work Together just as the song said. But youre not you still havent endorsed him and theres 13 million primary voters. A lot of people would think that. Shes laying out pretty stringent defenses. Mr. Trump, if its between you want to endorse him right now . Look, im happy to endorse donald trump as our president ial nominee, assuming they the will of the convention carries that out. If for some reason it doesnt, i will support the nominee. Bernie sanders going to endorse Hillary Clinton. The moment everyone has been waiting for. Is that going to help . To some extent shes already begun the process of unifying the Democratic Party. Hes an important step in that process. I think senator warn endorsing and supporting her went a long way toward bringing in the stands of the sanders electorate she needs. A lot of that work has been done, but its important to go into the convention unified. We were looking at a Party Platform that was put together that is further left than any Democratic Party thats ever been put together. That doesnt always make a huge difference, but the platforms are there to guide people and say this is where we would love to be at some point, but what kind of candidate will she be . Does that push her further left . It does. You saw that throughout the campaign. Having that primary challenge really it moved her further to the left and gave her some are real reason politically to emphasize certain issues. Does it really mean anything . Will she push for 15 minimum wage, will she push for a public option in health care. I think the first two almost certainly yes. On the third, health care is going to continue to be an issue. Its something she cares although about. I dont think anybody on either side of the aisle going to. That doesnt rule back that expand it. Correct. Which is why i pointed that out. Im not sure this Democratic Party or anybody wants to unwind the legislation. The republican platform is full of stuff theyre not really going to try to do either. A platform is a platform. Going into the convention, youll final have both candidates pick their vp. Who do you want to see. Donald trumps job here is different than Hillary Clintons job. He has more work to do in this process. He has to try to unify the party. He has to try to keep the various strands. I think hillary has a lot of work too. She has a very unanimated voter where donald trump has very animated voters. I think her opposition is animating the voters. Ive seen the this process up close. Both the first lady and serving a high level in administration. I think for her it is who do i want to work down the hall from. Thats a load of ma larky. She wants someone to help her win. I actually sgee disagree with that. She needs somebody who is going to get a security clearance at this point. We heard a lot of names. I can admire any of the people who have sbeen named on that list. They all have constriction and depth and length of the experience. They all have policy theerexper. Donald trump needs that on the ticket at this point. I would be happy be any of these men or women. I think he really would love to surprise. Look, im a big Mitch Daniels fan. He probably would not do it. He has not supported trump. And actually said some things about him. I know. I do think look if it were mike pence, hes a very experienced legislat legislator, has a great record in terms of his economic policies and this is what people need. This is why were in such separate straights in this country after seven years of president obama who should have brought us together and yet were falling apart. In large measure it is because were experiencing economic desperation that is reflected across the world. We need a change in our tax policies in our regulatory policies and any of the people who skr been named this far would move donald trump far along that way. Could be a scary country after the election. Lets hope not. Not if we get tax relief, joe. Both sides, the opposition is helping both sides get their voters out, but it is really like hard opposition on boeds sid both sides. Theyre thinking well, if he, it is hard. I agree with you. The crown try is very particularized. Very said that, i think there are more strands in the general electorate available to Hillary Clinton rights now. That may be true. After the election is done. I dont disagree. Thats why this pick is so important. He has work to do. Hillary clinton picks someone she comfortable with. She doesnt need to do that to occ sdur t secure the base. Its going to be another policy whomever she chooses will not be able to wash away the

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