Yesterday stocks were down for the third time in four sessions. Not far off the session lows. That was just a decline of 85 points for the dow. A loss of ten points for the s p 500 and a loss of 11 points for the nasdaq. Check out what happened overnight in asia. The nikkei was up by a half percent. Mainland china markets closed for that weeklong celebration that they do. In europe, in the early trade, at this point theyre under a bit of pressure. Biggest decline coming in france with the cac down by 0. 8 . Ftse off by a half percent. The ftse has been the big story. Ftse up yesterday. The british pound falling to the lowest several since 1985. Well talk more about that in a moment. Look at crude oil prices. Cried down yesterday in the regular session. It did pick up some ground in the evening session after we saw a surprise draw down in api inventories. 50, right within spitting distance. 49. 44 for wti. Among the top stories, becky is still here. Yes. Im still here. Its interesting about how that is uniquely unique to a woman. This, the whole thing, knowing whats coming, waiting, just i cant i cant imagine. I used to be afraid of shots. Im not big on, you know, what 50yearold men need to do every five years. Dont like looking forward to that, that day either. This is different. This you have done it before. Youre good at it. Youve done it before. It will happen the. Wasnt so great at it last time. Took 50 hours last team. Im nervous, too. Because of your shoes. Just you know, when it happens, people panic. Its important we do this right. Youll be the voice of calm and reason, im sure. All right. Judd, if you done this . Hes nervous. Greg is nervous. I see the look on his face. I think its one of the big three stories. A packed economic agenda adp employment report at 8 15 eastern. The forecasts call for a rise of 173,000 in private payrolls. May not equate exactly to what comes on friday. Thats slightly lower than in august. At 8 30, august trade deficit. At 10 00, we get the ism services for september. Factory orders, kneel kashkari, jeffrey laker, and Charles Evans all speaking today. Thats great. In earnings news evans already speaking. He said he would not be opposed im jumped ahead. Someone wrote he is not a voting member. But he has been a huge dove. Larry summers, did you read his stuff . I know. Ready for them he is sort of criticizing the fed a bit. Gently. You got to, i guess. In earnings news which which is coming it happens every quarter it doesnt happen immediately like october 1st. Takes a while to put the books together. Thats what i meant earlier. I said cook the books, i misspook. Freudian slip. Exactly. Monsanto and Constellation Brands report a result before the open today. Yum brands is out after the close. As i said, fed speak continues to dominate the Global Market conversation. Just talking about chicago fed president Charles Evans, telling journalists in new zealand today that hes fine with raising Interest Rates by year end. But heres its all been the rub. Depends on whether u. S. Economic data continues to come in firm. The fed doesnt know better than us. That sounds like a lower bar than hes had. Do you have confidence that Economic Data will come in firm . No. I dont either. So were back to we might. But it depends. Something always seems to happen. Seems to get in the way. Not this month, maybe next month. Its october, right . Evans didnt shoot down the idea that november could be a live meeting. Im incredibly dubious of if theyre going to do it, probably december. Fridays number will be important. He adds further moves, we would need to see inflation accelerating. Evans suggestsing isuggesting a most likely come in december. Were at 50 or something . Is it that high . It was. I havent looked at it in a week. Hes not taking november off the table completely. He becomes a voter next year. Just in time for when they actually might. Were watching currencies. The british pound falling to a three decade low against the dollar on brexit concerns, hitting the lowest level since the uk miners strike in 1985, which is when Billy Elliott was happening. Did you see Billy Elliott . No. The back drop of the whole thing. The miners and the strike . Yeah. The backdrop. In this country we wont have more miners strikes s fshgstrik is elected. We wont have anymore mines. West virginia. Things do move, its not good. But its hard for the people going through it at the time. We should talk more about the top corporate stories. The one at the top of our list is twitter. The wall street journal reports that the social need where company is expected to field offers this week. The paper says salesforce Ceo Marc Benioff has been building a case to investors for why his company should be the buyer. Among other names looking, google and disney. They have much deeper pockets. Marc benioff seems to be interested in this after losing linkedin to microsoft earlier this year. Shares of twitter up another 4 . Our top political story is the faceoff between Vice President ial candidates last night at the debate. John harwood was watching it. They didnt have the fireworks that we had seen with some of the president ial debate that we had already watched, but both candidates got a chance to lay out their side of the story. They did. Becky, before i get to that i have to agree with the one wise thing that joe said at the top of the show whats that . The experience of being pregnant pregnant, about to have a baby and having a baby is unique to a woman. Theres no debating that issue. I want you to think about it, harwood. You need to think if it was you. Okay . That you know, men we face certain things where we get nervous and stuff. But nothing compares. I know what i heard on the radio on the way in, tom petty, waiting is the hardest part. I can completely relate to that. You never felt something alien, youre sitting there, you see the guy you never had a coanchor repeatedly show you videos of alien popping out of the stomach. That is true. You never felt something alive inside of you, have you in. Other than a burritos. Exactly. Burritos sometimes alive inside me. All right. Go ahead. Lets get to that debate. First of all, bottom line, mike pence gave the republican ticket and donald trump ahead what they most needed, which was a solid performance, calm the jitters of the fallout from the debate donald trump himself had and the subsequent comments he made. Mike pence was solid in defend ing conservative principles, if not Donald Trumps principles. Both candidates had consistent strategies they executed. Mike pence looked a bit better executing his than tim kaine did. Kaine consistently went after donald trump and threw in the face of mike pence statements that trump made that alienated some voters. Heres an example. Senator, hes going to release his tax returns when the audit is over. Richard nixon released tax returns when he was under audit. If you cant meet nixons standard, people ought to have people cant understand either one of you when you speak over each other. I would ask you to wait until it is that the other is finished. Were having fun up here. Now, mike pences strategy was to redirect questions into criticism of the Obama Clinton administration, as he called it, since she was his secretary of state. He took an interesting apreproa to the criticisms of donald trump that tim kaine threw his way, saying there is no way donald trump could say some of the things he said he said. Donald trump did say some of those things, but if you were a viewer, you would say hes a guy deflecting some of the things being thrown at him. He says ours is an insult driven campaign . Did yall hear that . Ours is an insult driven campaign . If donald trump said all the things you said he said and the way you said he said them, he still wouldnt have a fraction of the insults that Hillary Clinton leveled when she said that half of our supporters were a basket of deplorables. She said they were irredeemable. They were not america. Of course this is not going to fundmentally change the race. Nonetheless, a solid night, good news night, sheadlines saying mike pence won is what the ticket needed. But you dont know what trumps own reaction will be. I communicated with a top Trump Campaign aide said pence won overall but lost to trump, he doesnt like to be upstaged. Whether the positive reviews for mike pence will annoy donald trump, whether mike pences refusal to go point by point and rebut charges at the top of the ticket will annoy him, well have to see. In the end, its in the hands of donald trump and Hillary Clinton in st. Louis. That sounds like a stretch. Thats someone looking at Donald Trumps personality, with a microscope and going, lets see. Hes thin skinned and defensive. What if this Vice President exceeds him. Im telling you, have you heard the first pick a guy makes when he becomes the nominee, the most important thing they remember him for is his Vice President ial pick. I liked dan quayle, i think a lot of people at the time said that was not great for h. W. Sarah palin, some people thought that was a hail mary before you needed a hail mary. In hindsight theres no dispute, i dont think, that you can say that out of the people he had in consideration, that trump had in consideration, pence was a great pick. Even the never trumpers have to say that almost, right, judd . I think it was a good i said it was a good pick at the time. I still think it is a good pick for donald trump. For people who think they can see into trumps soul and think hes a complete psycho, then that would be, hey, im mad. My campaign might do better but im mad because this guy has that looked better than me. I dont believe that will happen. Joe, look, as i told you, i think the bottom line was that this was a good night for mike pence, that it helped the republican ticket. Im telling you what somebody who works for Trumps Campaign told me. When youre on, john, i want you to succeed as a news person when i toss to you. Im not hoping you screw up, lose your train of thought or look bad. I dont care if you do better than me. But how do you feel if andrew upstages you . Would get to me. No. We got to go. If that ever happens, ill see how i feel. For more on the debate and the next president ial debate coming up on sunday, lets bring in judd gregg, and kaine, too, a senator governor. And former congresswoman elizabeth holtzman. Good to see you. Very nice to see you. You watched . I did. Did you have some coffee this morning . No, no, no. I want to go back to sleep. I was up last week until 11 00 watching that one. It set me back. You need to do damage control or did he did okay . I think he did what he needed to do. Tim kaine. Yeah. Basically show introduce himself to the American People. Hes not well known. Mike pence is not well known. People saw that hes a knowledgeable guy, has experience and raised issues in a strong way about donald trump. Judd, you had the early call on the gray hair, meaning wisdom, maturity. You went long ago that route, right . Yes. Gray hair. Do you see it the same way as the congresswoman . I think they both did a good job. As a practical matter, i thought senator kaine had too much caffeine before he got on the show, probably got hyped up on his oneliners. Pence came across much more basically thoughtful and substantive. As a practical matter, these Vice President ial debates, unless theres a major messup, even then certainly the quayle one was a significant one and that didnt affect the outcome people can look at both candidates, okay f somebody happens with the president i can be hopeful with this candidate. As a practical matter, this election is morphing into an issue of what happens to the United States senate. Lets say the present poll numbers are correct, and that hillary does win running a quasi socialist campaign as she seems to be doing, the only thing that will balance our government is keeping a senate republican. The senate race is down to three basic races, New Hampshire, pennsylvania and north carolina. Its important if you happen to be a conservative or believe in government that is of moderation versus excessively large government and government that moves left aggressively and a Supreme Court that is out of control that we maintain the senate. Thats what this election will be about. Three, four, five months ago, the polls, whatever you use, they have gone from hillary to trump catching, almost being ahead, back to widening after her convention, back to close all the time, the trumpers have been saying we have to worry about the senate. You wrote it off a couple times you tied and were even. Why be so defeatist the entire time . You wont have to worry about the Supreme Court. Youre right about that, but you have to be realistic. Again, you know more about the enthusiasm gap. You saw what happened with brexit. That was 52 48 stay, and it was closer. I would think you would be more half full than after empty and be more optimistic. Is mrs. Gregg as defeatist . You two have to talk, because he thinks you moved too far left. I think hillary has an excellent chance of winning now, its not over, but people have begun to see Donald Trumps real temperament and persona in a way they had not the debate was to focus the attention of the American People. How much does sundays debate weigh in . I think not as much. People have already made up their minds. To say Hillary Clinton is a socialist quasi. Not even quasi. Shes to the left of sanders. I dont want to break in like kaine did last night. Its an insult to socialists, i agree. The most telling thing is how, in his own state, New Hampshire, the republican candidate for senate, the sitting senator senator ayot. That was smooth. Said that trump was a model for his kids and then walked it back. Why did she walk it back . Because of her own election. Because the people in her state dont see donald trump as a model for children orb adults. Thats true around the country. Not her finest moment. I think its facing reality is important. Let me defend kelly ayot, hes been one of the best senators in the senate. They represents New Hampshire very effectively, because she speaks as an independent, speaks her own mind and understands complex issues. She is a very strong senator. Was bill clinton a good role model . He was president for eight years . I think when he ran before we knew about him. Well there were some issues that arose during his campaign. But would you say youre not running for any office, was he a good role model for our children . In the end with monica lewinsky, he showed lack of control. Thats just one name. Is there any hypocrisy were not talking about youre mixing apples and oranges here. Its one thing to talk about infidelity. Its another thing to have a temperament where you lose control its not just infidelity i was in government for 20 years, congress, was in new york city, i was there when the first bombs went off in the World Trade Center and the mayor was out of town. You need calmness, measured response. Reasonable. Thats not what we saw with donald trump. I know what you need in a crisis and what you need as a president. I think the American People saw that. I was talking role models. Theres only one person i know right now in this room who understands the presidency. Thats becky. She has two young kids, she has a third one coming soon. And she deals with you guys all the time. She could be president. I mean thank you. Appreciate it. But no thank you. Youd be great. Thank you. Thank you both for coming in. Well talk more about the debate and things that are happening on wall street. When we come back, jobs are in focus. We are just two days away from the september employment report. It could have a big impact on the feds plan to hike Interest Rates. Much more on this after the break. And well talk jobs and the fed with former treasury secretary Larry Summers. Hell join us on the squak set. The countdown is on to the friday jobs report. Today well get an early read on what we might be able to expect on friday. Thats when we get the adp private payrolls at 8 15 a. M. Eastern. Joining us is chief economist from mizuho securities. Steven, lets talk about these jobs numbers. It is important because there is this idea that potentially november is still alive meeting. I dont believe that. December probably still on the table in a big way. Every meeting is live. They made that clear. November is a live meeting. Are they likely to move . Probably no. Is december a possibility . These people have been talking about it for 36 months and done one rate hike. Theres a credibility issue here. And as the old president rolls off, new president rolls on, if they dont do it now, they probably wont do it in 2017. Theres a high probability that december will be the last move for 12 months. Why is that . Are we falling off a cliff . Were not falling off a cliff, but the my is stuck. Weve downshifted this year from 2 to 2. 5 to 1. 25. If we notice the articles coming out, theres a glut of apartments or condos in a lot of major metropolitan cities. Some fed officials pointed out recently, look, were writing off a lot of things, like the dollar strength, the oil. We didnt ease when the dollar rose to 20 . We didnt ease when oil collapsed 50 . Now we will raise rates because the dollar stabilized and oil stabilized at a low 4rw level. Does the 2 target for inflation make sense . We should have a higher number. 2 is ineffective in japan, the wrong level in europe and it will be the wrong level here. I wish the fed would let the economy get to that point. We need to make sure we dont get deflation in this country. You think their policies are harming the economy . I think their policy is misguided. Theyre smart people who have an old view of the economy. Theyre living in the past that we have a world of excess demand. We have a world of excess supply. Thats why Larry