Second. He would come in so high. He believes his number. Not everyone else im surprised that the average stayed below 200. I am too. Given how hot the number was. Its not a one to one correlation. Every other signal on jobs indicates that the market has gotten stronger and stronger for jobs. This 8 30 number we say how big it is. This one actually does [ overlapping talking ]. The futures are looking at 100 odds that the fed raises rates. If you get a weaker than expected number will they still feel like they can go ahead humor me today and go for 450 or something. We just want to see the tweet from trump. You would want that for the american humor you for the purposes of tweeting. It would be fun to watch drudge put boom and have a picture of him. That would be fun. Would you prefer so that you can Say Something negative that less americans get put to work for whatever reno they get put to work. For whatever reason, were hoping for a big number. For other reasons like the last eight years, parttime jobs. The economy was building itself up. Right . Lets be honest. Theres a reason why the earnings have been as strong as they have been. You started this, joe. I was trying to make America Great again. America has been great for a very long time. Greater. Lets look at the futures looking great this morning. Take a look. The dow futures up by 82 points above fair value. Its unusual to see big movements in the futures before you get a jobs number. Up by ten points. The nasdaq up by 19. Overnight in asia, looks like the japanese market was up by 1. 5 . The hang seng and the shanghai composite were mixed. Hang seng up by in europe in the early trading, things are up with the dax and the kack both up by 2 3 of a percentage point. Lets get you caught up up this happened overnight. South korea president removed from power. Upheld her impeachment for corruption and peddling. Election must be held in 60 days. Two people were killed in the demonstrations. Of course, youll recall over the past couple of weeks, the vice chairman and acting chief of samsung was arrested as part of this corruption case. Its a huge case over there. Its impacting business. Not only that, for what it means our relationship with north korea. If theres not stability there. Secretary tillerson is headed over there without the media, though. Well see whether well find out what takes place during those meetings. Big energy news. Spanish Energy Company repsol oil reserve oil reserve has been identified in alaskas north slope could be the biggest in United States in 30 years. Incredible news. The company says the find could produce 120,000 barrels of light oil per day. In 2021. Take a quick look at crude prices at this hour. Barrel with wti as we look around. Youre looking at this was the big story yesterday. [ overlapping talking ]. Justin trudeau repeating his opposition to the border tax. He warned Energy Executives in houston, import tax would hurt the u. S. And canadian economies. Canada Foreign Affairs minister said the same thing. Wilbur ross, theyll be responsible for renegotiating the Free Trade Agreement and a message that many have been trying to make the last couple of weeks. Europe is up. There are polls that came out. Le pen would lose at this point 60 40 in the second round. Holes smulz. What have we learned from polls . He wins by 26 . Le pen and mack ron get to 26 in the first round and 60 40 in the second round. The reason i bring it up. Earlier i saw someone tweet this is to what youre saying, one of the rallies in the crowd. It was the Enthusiasm Gap we used to talk about. It was mammoth. There were french flags everywhere. It looked like thousands of people and it looked similar to the trump rally. One of trump rallies. Thats going to be interesting to watch. Polls smoels. France wont. That would be theyre leaving. France needs. Eu, i think, more than the uk does. I think the uk can get by. You wanted them to go out. I do. I want the whole thing the netherlands isnt even i do. That stuff peter teal said the other day must have gotten in your craw. He made many comments. Which comment. Globalism is on its last lap and the same people that were going to fix the world actually destroyed the world we now know looking back at it. Davos man destroyed the world. You need to know what the opposition is saying, andrew. I need to get in there. Keep your friends close. Your enemies closer. You and becky got to switch seats. Stocks to watch. Shares of ulta. Ulta beauty are sliding. I want to call it ultra. Why . Its missing a letter. Your jumble brain. Where is the r . Can i buy an r . Only a vowel. Current Quarter Sales guidance is light. Ever go to one of these . El pollo loco. Its sort of does it have a smoky flavor . Yes. Theres one by knee. Earnings and comps missing the mark meantime. The ceo of the texmex fast food chain informing the board that hes retiring the end of 2017. You got to move out to the west coast, joe. To get more of it. Krarcarls burgers. Traffic is terrific. Ver foen on the you could never leave new york. Youre so new york. Quarter earnings forecast is a little bit light. You couldnt, right . Could never leave the island of manhattan. Could you . No. I lived abroad. I lived in london. Does that count . In college. Afterwards. He was not on the island of manhattan in college. He was not growing up either. Went to college in ithaca, new york. How far is that, man of the people. Ithaca . Four hours. Coal gate. Hamilton is closer. Cornell off your list. Cornell has never been on the list, believe me. Wow. Isnt that the most liberal of all the ivy leagues . No. You took it off the list. Its always been off the list. You went to brown. Youre right. Who went through the hotel school there. The hotel school is a great school if youre in the hotel business. A few hours left until we get the numbers before President Trumps first full Michelle Gerard at nat west markets. Hes a City Private Bank chief investment strategist. How much of a range for what you think . Youre only supposed to say 100,000. 250 to 350 or 200 to 300. You know, lets face it. It feels like it should be a big number. Except whenever we start to say the risks are to the upside, then you get a surprise. Whatever this number prints, i think we all know the labor market has taken a leg up. Weve seen that from the other data. The economy has taken another leg up here. All of the data coming into the year kind of for the most part shows that. Whether or not it shows up in this months report or next month, the feds and the markets know this, to that extent. Well, today can certainly confirm it, each if it comes in on the softer side, its not going to change anybodys opinion. What is the difference in methodology so we understand how adp could come up with such a big number. This is really important. Adp is really just like a forecast that we would have. It is true they use adps information on the payroll numbers they get. But they also theyre running a model like the rest of us, it uses prior payroll numbers. Its a forecast itself with an additional piece of information which clearly, obviously confirms strength. It would have been strong, probably anyway given the fact that the other inputs into their model, like the inputs into my model are stronger. The minute you start this hour. Talking about models. Its like great. Theyre worse than polls. Which is why we all like i said, the standard error is within 100,000. The government due date is an estimate. The government data. Always be estimate. You have 100,000 range. 200,000 to 300,000. Youre like a company. That wouldnt cause a stock to go up if all they do is if they keep the low end of the range. In a year from now, theyll change the level low end of your range. I think so. 150 to 250. Clearly above 200,000. The ism Services Data has been a good indicator of the. The claims data. 40year low with the population up tremendously and the labor force up tremendously. All of the other indicators are suggesting a strong report. You can confirm this. Even that is significant. Because you remember about maybe about six months ago, our friend mark zandi, not downgrades, but the new normal for what we expect a the labor force had gotten tight. Right. That was still a good number. It was enough to keep the Unemployment Rate coming down. That was going to be previous to that, it was 190 or 2. But he was saying 165 to 170. Even saying 100 to 200 would be a surprise to it would be a surprise, a step up. Really at this stage of the cycle to be he looked pale and sick to his stomach the other day to release his own number. Oh, my god the interesting [ overlapping talking ]. The economy ends up doing well. Theres so many things we blame. The whole thought of secular stagnation. The economy can only grow 2 or less. The new normal. How about the natural the fed funds neutral rate. In real terms zero. Were going to be hey, if the economy actually starts to turn in 3 to 4 growth, all of a sudden were going to say, it wasnt structural, it was really perhaps bad policy. Last year the labor force grew 2. 2 Million People already. Surprised to me to see two years deep into a recovery, after disappointing labor force growth, something that sees a cyclical rise in labor force. That suggests that we were getting no decline in the Unemployment Rate, solid group rate for unemployment. If we can get these sorts of numbers and see the labor force grow pretty rapidly. No. No. People werent retiring because they wanted to. Part of what we were saying, the numbers are different this time. Prime age workers, forget the baby boom for a moment. Think 25 to 55. These types of workers. Those ages. Weve actually seen a really massive decline over the last eight years and if we get some of that back, if we can get that back for a couple of years, then we can have stronger growth. You were finishing people started thinking about the next question. You just said what we were told about secular stagnation an the new normal might not have been the new normal and might have been policy inflicted. Bad policy. Regulation overregulation. There are things that could get challenged. Things we assumed were structural that, in fact, were due to other factors. This is the test of the been thinking that exactly. Cant get above 2 . This will be interesting and exciting to some of us. It will be validated or not. To me you made a good point, too. When you talk about the labor force growth, that might be something with the Unemployment Rate. It may be that we start to get the labor force. Thats one of the reasons im not sure the labor force might decline. Consumers, the surveys arent getting optimistic about the ability to get a job and coming back in. Back to sort of the average employment the population ratio, the last three cycles, ten million more jobs. You wouldnt have 96 million. But you would have ten. Slow productivity growth. We dont even sort of know what an experiment will do with the economy. Theres no past sort of reference we have. We cant like a rate cut put deregulation into a model and see how the economy will perform. This is an experiment. Well see from the results. The regulation thing is important. Ive started myself, im so excited about the potential for tax cuts and so is the market. The strength of the economy now even before we know what the tax cuts will be and the confidence that business has ive started to question the rollback in regulation is the bigger story here than the tax cuts. Here all the time. Each if the tax plan is pushed off, if that happens ill take my 17 numbers down. The resilience has me questioning whether that happens. Thats the big story. Whats got companies optimistic, theyre operating in a less hostile environment. They can deploy the regulatory and the productivity that will follow. What has happened thus far . Theres been a lot of no, no. A lot of deregulation thus far. Were talking about the confidence. Im saying what is structurally happening. Have you seen companies we have to see in the next few months. If the its going to be uncomfortable at 8 when teper goes on. It was stay at home day or whatever it was. That was a bad day. What was a stay at home day. The woman the International Womens day. Stay at home. That was a bad day to be out and not i was working that day. I know. Not listening. I know you were working. That day, again and again, said that Small Businesses at this point have nothing in the future thats uncertain or to worry about except kept coming back to the French Election but saying that all this stuff happened. Theyre already hiring, already expanding. Already spending money. He said that again and again and again. He did. Hes the guy that came the day before the election. Trying to derail the whole election with the hit job on trump. Derail the whole election. Why come on the day before to say that the guy has never given a dime to charity . Because he had a particular view. I know. Its fine. Just that he wanted to come on. Its fine. Thank you. You wanted to come on and express your opinion also. And you too, steve. Going with girard. Thanks everybody. Coming up, President Trump meeting with business leaders, we have the details next. Later, richard le frac is going to join us in a first on cnbc. Advising him programming note. National Economic Council director gary cohn going to talk about the jobs numbers this morning. What powers the Digital World . Communication. Like centurylinks broadnd network that gives 35,000 fans a cutting edge game exrience. Or the network that keeps a leading hotel chains guests connected at work, and at play. Or the it platform that powers for one of the largest greeting card companies. Millions of ecds every day businesses count on communication, and communication counts on ceurylink. Did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back . Say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. Comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet thats over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. Say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. And add phone and tv for only 34. 90 more a month. Call today. Comcast business. Built for business. Good morning. About a dozen folks in the room. Cameras were allowed in for the early part of the meeting. Thats where the president does this roundtable and gets everyone to introduce themselves. They pull the cameras out after that. Ill tell you in the part where the media couldnt see. At one point ideas were offered up on banking deregulation. Things theyd like to see where bankers lend more. At that point, he turned to the treasury secretary and the national Economic Council director and hed like to do them in six months. Then trump turned to them and said i want it done in six months. That made a big impression on some of the attendees in the operating room and then he took them on an i am impromptu tour of the oval office. Thats his he gives them a tour and lets them take selfies and pictures. That he makes a big impression on them when you bringing in a big group. Elijah and peter welsh to democratic congressman talked about their bill talking about Prescription Drug costs. The president was enthusiastic about that. I had an opportunity to talk to sean spicer about that. I asked how much pain the Drug Companies could be in for here as a result of this bill. Heres his answer. I think thats a bigger conversation we have to have with house leadership in terms of some maybe it is that right vehicle. Maybe speaker ryan and leader mccarthy and chairman brady have other ways to achieve the same goal or work with congressman cummings. I dont want to be partnerships tiff to the house. Not fully embracing the democrats bill. But he said he was enthusiastic with them behind the scenes. The president does want to do something about Prescription Drug costs in the country. Thats something to keep an eye on. Will the republicans and democrats on the hill Work Together . Is that a possible area of bipartisanship. Thats to be determined at this point, guys. Thank you very much. Ipo watch. Were joined first on cnbc. The Company Begins trading on the nasdaq this morning. Later the ceo of Adventure Racing company, tough mudder will talk about new tv partnerships. Thats the one you did . I did. I think it was the tough mudder. Well have all of this coming up. This fall. 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Jobs, economy and a possible rate hike. Team coverage and analysis. Squawk box today an cnbc. Welcome back. Youre watching squawk box. Live from the Nasdaq Market site in times square. Good morning welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. A quick look at futures. At 8 30 all of this likely to change depending on what the jobs number turns out to be. The dow would open up 92 points higher. Nasdaq higher and the s p 500 would open up a little over 11 points. It is jobs friday. Well have two jobs offers to tell you about. This is separate. The duchess of cambridge, Kate Middleton is looking for a new private secretary. If youre looking