Transcripts For CNBC TechCheck 20221114 : vimarsana.com

Upg upgrades well break down the streets key number first, new numbers from the fed around inflation hey, steve yeah, carl, good morning. Not very good news from the new York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations with inflation rising across the board for all tenors let me give you a chart, the oneyear up 5. 9 is the expec tase for inflation in one year. Thats up a half a point after declining for several months in a row. The three year up. 02 Inflation Expectations surge for gas prices and food. In fact, the oneyear outlook really mirrors the rise in gas prices over time unemployment expectations hitting the highest level since april 2020 however, expected growth and Household Income also was up to 4. 3 thats the highest on record for this survey and the Spending Outlook also grew by one percentage point to 7 back to you. Steve, thanks for that. We need to start with the amazon news today, moving higher in the last few minutes in the wake of the New York Times story, which just broke, reporting the Company Plans to lay off around 10,000 employees theyre not the only big tech name talking about cost cuts today. Apple shares trading lower after ceo tim cook confirmed reports of hiring slowdowns at the company, saying the key to success isnt keeping costs low but investing in the business correctly. Take a listen. Were being very deliberate on our hiring. That means were continuing to hire but not everywhere in the company are we hiring. We believe strongly investing for the long term. And we dont believe you can save your way to prosperity. We think you invest your way to it as for the times, jon, the times does say the total number remains fluid, but if it stays around 10,000, roughly 3 of corporate and less than 1 of their global workforce, obviously, more than a million yeah, i think the timing here is important this is happening right before the biggest week or two of the year, of the Holiday Shopping season and amazon shopping season also in a year where they in an unusual way did a second prime day right at the beginning of q4, and that seemed to be a little lackluster. So amazons probably doing this based on expectations, based on data, and yes, this is what companies do around q4, is they try to position themselves for the next year, for 2023, based on a reasonable scenario of what they think they can expect also, i think its important to note that over the past few months, amazon has shifted how it does compensation for corporate employees more toward cash, a little less toward equity they tended to have a pretty low relative to other Companies Amount of cash salary they pay out and really tilted toward equity in this time when perhaps employees would do better to take more equity if they can, because the stock is low, getting new equity grants, they have been tilting toward cash. This is sort of austerity heading into 2023, and im not surewe have indications this i necessarily the bottom it might just be the debeening austerity kind of i guess, but 10,000 employees, that is really a drop in the bucket for a company like amazon, that as of the end of last quarter had 1. 5 million employees. These are corporate employees. That reports say theyre laying off and potentially the ecommerce division, the Devices Division remember that journal report last week, the alexa unit could lose as much as 5 billion a year but again, this is just such a small percentage, carl, and were not seeing it at the warehouse level. More of the services side, which would mean more softening of the economy, this is sort of in line with what meta is doing, 11,000 employees there is a much larger percentage, but it still only takes them back a few years. Im looking at the latest Quarterly Report from amazon q2, 2021, they hired, increased their workforce by 52 , and that doesnt even include contractors and temporary personnel. So it really does show you, again, how much these companies, the Big Tech Companies, have been hiring. The headlines will keep coming in the comments from tim cook are important as wem probably a long way to go here, carl also, kind of, guys, puts into sharper context what bezos told cnn this morn, that was advice to american households, global households really, and global Small Businesses about in his words taking some risk off the table. Heres what he said. If youre an individual and thinking about buying a large screen tv, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Take some risk off the table if youre a Small Business, maybe delay some capital purchases. Do you really need that piece of equipment . Maybe it can wait a bit. Have some cash on hand just a little Risk Reduction can make the difference for that Small Business if we do get into more serious economic problems you have to play the probabilities a little bit pretty interesting, jon his view that if were not in a recession now, good chance we might end up being in one. Of course, if you have the room, you could always make a bid for an existing nfl team yes he doesnt necessarily have to slow down, but hey, this is the founder of the everything store. He sells stuff telling people, maybe think about it before you make that purchase maybe dont buy now, pay later in a way but dee, i think its also important to distinguish between amazons work forces the bulk of the work force is that warehouse work force, and they overbuilt their fulfillment centers. They were scaling that back. Also, that work force churns relatively quickly so i dont think you would see the same kinds of layoffs in that work force even if they were easing up on it you see them hiring less, because that workforce is going to roll off naturally anyway so you cant necessarily look at it and say, this is just a small percentage in corporate, and expect to see something different, a layoff announcement wise in the fulfillment work force because they dont work the same way i hear you, except that last year, they hired i think 100,000 holiday workers, and thats flat so maybe in a way, thats austerity as well, but thats still a large number, jon, as you say as were looking ahead to the Holiday Season which may be more muted than past ones youre still seeing a lot of hiring there i take your point. Whats interesting though is these layoffs are focusing on the companys device organization, according to the times, retail division, and human resources. One area im constantly curious about is the grocery division. Amazon has been successful in a lot of things like cloud, like advertising. Grocery, not so much remember, it made that massive more than 14 billion acquisition for whole foods, and they still continue to get a foothold, so well see if some of those departments get a closer look in the weeks and months ahead lets turn to crypto because there was lots of headlines over the weekend once again investors and users continue to watch this fallout surrounding ftx. Kate rooney joins us with more so kate, lets look forward. Ftx has fallen the important question is who is next where does the contagion spread to we wont know for weeks, months, but we do know other exchanges are scrambling here to show their reserves to ironically look for audits. There has been a lot of that, and thats the big question in terms of what all this bankruptcy fallout from ftx means for the broader contagion and what it means for the crypto markets specifically we heard from binances ceo who walked away from the deal last week to bail out ftx he said on twitter, spaces just about an hour ago, this was extremely surprising to everyone he said quote, if i was writing a fiction, i couldnt imagine this stuff he also gave some advice to crypto traders and says if you dont know whats going on, just hold for a couple of years not days, he said years. And this will eventually blow away cz trying to reassure investors they dont have loans or debt when it comes to binance he also questioned the liquidity of smaller exchanges crypto. Com ceo took to youtube this morning to reassure customers his platform is solvent in the wake of frbs txs collapse he said it has a tremendously strong Balance Sheet he claimed crypto. Com was not involved in the practices that led to ftxs downfall last week. It comes after news crypto. Com mistakenly sent about 400 million worth of ether to another exchange back in october. We do have some new reporting on ftx, with the cnbc Investigative Team from the weekend, and according to a source familiar with the companys operations, the trading firm founded by Sam Bankmanfried was using customer funds from its Crypto Exchange ftx in a way that really flew under the radar of a lot of investors and employees. Sources say ftx and alameda kept these off their Balance Sheets and that they drastically underestimated the amount they needed to keep on hand if customers wanted to cash out part of the issue was the way they were accounting for margin trading. It allowed clients to borrow crypto from one another. It was not tracking the value of those. Like you mention, all of this raising conventions about transparency kate, the idea that cz couldnt imagine this happening, to me, makes me question his judgment this is a crypto industry that was having these big blowout events in miami, and the was this big crypto bowl in miami, and they were Crypto Bahamas those of us who have been around for a while and saw the dotcom boom and collapse could imagine exactly this so theres that. Also, very different, i think, the contrast between jeff bezos saying, maybe dont buy a flat screen tv, and cz, not saying dont buy crypto hes saying this will all blow over i dont know there seems to be a difference in these types of businesses yeah, absolutely. Hes saying dont buy crypto and thats his core business, it calls into question what is going to happen for some of the bigger exchanges if theres no Crypto Trading volume if the advice from seemingly the smartest people in the industry and someone like cz running the biggest global Crypto Exchange, if he says he was caught off guard, it calls into question the checks and balances and the type of Due Diligence and Risk Management out there, if this caught him off guard, how can you trust another ceo coming out and saying we dont have liquidity issues we dont have the lending problems that seem to have caught ftx and alameda off guard. We dont know how deeply they knew the risk, but it caught them off guard if one of the biggest crypto currencies they were holding as collateral crashed. How quickly this fell apart is unbelievable cz isnt saying dont buy crypto hes saying dont trade crypto which is what his exchange does. And now, you know, hes sort of looking for funds to prop up or not prop up, lets say, i dont quo what to call it anymore. Rescue help other Crypto Companies. How much do we know about czs and binances finances we know they hold a lot of coins. We dont even have sort of the profitability, the great reporting that you were able to do with ftx, the Balance Sheets, we dont have that from binance. Even when we had that from ftx, there were holes and questions. This was from an auditor, but theres a lot they dont to have report because theyre not a Public Company what we heard from sources is theyre profitable and do a lot of volume, but they take more risk than a lot of u. S. Exchanges. They offer derivatives that are not allowed in the u. S we know they offer things that are not allowed on coinbase. The risk profile of a trader on binance in asia is a lot higher. Proof of reserves is being 39 around maybe thats a different conversation, what that does or doesnt tell you questions about transparency, and the idea, a lot of ceos and people in the industry have relied on the idea, its all on blockchain so it should be transparent, but i spoke to a blockchain analyst who said these exchanges show up as a blob on the blockchain its not like what you can see whats going on, people rely on that, but theres not a lot of trust in the technology unless youre a sleuth or an analyst. Meanwhile, you have the ceos words, everything is fine. Famous last words carl. All right, guys, thanks meernlt, ftxs implosion has wide ranger implications for more than just crypto. Julia joins us with some of the fallout for the ad market. Carl, the ad industry is already struggling with concerns about an economic slowdown and now its bracing for another blow from the implosion of ftx, which was named one of the top ten marketers of the year in 2021 since it began advertising in july 2021, ftx has spent about 75 million on tv ads. Touting celebrity partnerships with tom brady, steph curry, and others ftxs tv ad investments peaked in february with nearly 36 million in spending, including ads in the Winter Olympics and the super bowl which was nicknamed the crypto bowl, because of four National Crypto ads that aired in the game where 30 seconds were going for as much as 7 million. This Super Bowl Ad from ftx seems particularly ironic in retrospect its ftx, a safe and easy way to get into crypto i dont think so. And im never wrong about this stuff. Never. Ftxs tv ad spend has plummeted from that february peak to 1. 5 million in september. And then 145,000 last month, according to ispot. Ftxs ad decline is part of a larger trend, as the broader crypto industry has suffered in february, the crypto industry was the 13th highest spender on tv ads last month, that fell to 175th place. Crypto. Com actually . One that has spent the most on tv ads, 92 million in total, but they havent spent anything since june ftx and other Crypto Companies spent more on tv than on digital ads, but google did blame its slowing Revenue Growth in part on reduced ad spending by Crypto Companies and other financial firms. Now, looking at the broader pullback in ad spending, the absence of crypto advertising is yet another blow to this already very challenged space. Jon. All right, julia, thank you the collapse of ftx also driving calls for increased regulation our next guest is the head of the Consumer Financial protection bureau. And joins us now, out with a new report detailing complaints of fraud and scams across the crypto landscape joining us now is cfpb director rohit chopra welcome. Before we get to this first report, a year ago, you guys put out a report on stable coins saying you were studying it. Stablecoins imploded over the past several months. Now you have this report kind of feels like a lot of us are a little bit behind the tide that is crashing down in crypto. What is your take on the consumers behalf on the state of crypto . What do people need to know and prepare for . What were finding is crypto is becoming a new vector for fraudsters in some ways we have all heard of catfishing but when it meets crypto, we see a whole new way where people can get scammed online rather than using gift cards or other things that are less traceable, crypto is becoming a vehicle of choice for many scammers so we have released analysis of where those fraud scams and hacks are occurring in crypto related complaints, but theres no question that the events of the recent days are leading to more people asking how do i get my funds out i thought this was safe. And clearly, there was some good pieces of this, and that it is not deeply integrated with the banking system, were not going to see, we hope, a major contagion in the general broader Financial System, but certainly, the crypto ecosystem is under severe stress. Well, what are the advantages that youre seeing a year ago, there was a line in a report you came out with, or at least a statement on the report, the cfpb is actively monitoring and preparing for Broader Consumer adoption of cryptocurrencies okay, we got that broader adoption, and theres fraud happening. Whats the upside that youre seeing in consumer adoption of crypto how is this good, what is the good to preserve here as we seek to also protect consumers . I think what we shared is that if stable coins, those are the ones that purport to stay pegged to the u. S. Dollar, we want to make sure if they scale, for example, if they start riding the rails of the Big Tech Companies and their payment platforms, what do we do to make sure that people have real trust, that they have the same protections from fraud and right now, its clear that stable coins are not really ready for consumer payments. Were closely looking at what the Big Tech Companies are doing in terms of offering new Virtual Currencies on their platforms. But clearly, there is more work to do to make sure that if there are new technologies that scale for consumer use, that theyre safe and secure. We have also taken some action to make sure that when theres representations around fdic insurance, that its actually true and like we have been seeing in the past few days, people think theyll be able to withdraw their funds and theyre stumbling and struggling to get that so obviously, theres more work to do before this really goes into consumer use. Director, i wonder, do you think theres any way either regulation or the timeline of a framework could have been accelerated to the point where these ftx losses would not have been possible . Or is this just for a classic example of innovation outpacing regulation you know, there are existing laws on the books. Many of us are working on how to use them but of course, congress is looking at a number of options i will say, a major challenge that were going to have to deal with is how these entities can easily operate outside of the united states. There is a lot of differences when we think about banking, often we have visibility into how they are operating here and how they offer things to consumers here when were talking about those operating in other jurisdictions, and offering products here, it can be a struggle so theres a lot of differences that i wouldnt just say is innovation but also regulatory arbitrage. Good morning. Crypto investors like kevin oleary who also backed ftx, by the way, was on the show friday calling out regulators and saying they didnt do enough very broadly, how much responsibility do you think lies with regulators and how much with investors or customers not doing their Due Diligence . Well, everyone everyone has a role to play in this, of course regulators, we have our laws that we seek to use. And Law Enforcement is a key tool to crack down on crime. But of course, it cant be fixed overnight. And obviously, if there are new tools to crack down on fraud and abuse, we have got to use them so theres ongoing work to work with congress and others, especially as it relates to stable coins which do pose some risk to the Financial System if they scale and i think that is a key area of focus right now so what needs to be done right now on stable coins . They have these attestations that show their reserves but it doesnt really tell us if those reserves are being used as collateral, if theyre leveraged. So as we see and await the fallout from ftx, stable coin is certainly stable coins are certainly an area that are vulnerable they remained largely steady, but how much time do we give this how urgent is the need to regulate and look at these stable coins, especially if theyre sort of the tool that could lead to more contagion in other Asset Classes . What i have shared publicly and with other regulators is that congress can work on its approach, but we have some tools today. The Financial Stability Oversight Council has disclosed that it is exploring whether it could use an authority to designate some of these payment mechanisms as potentially posing Systemic Risk or could pose Systemic Risk if the council of regulators designates this it would give new powers for the fed or other regulators to get some more insight as to whether these stable coins are backed by sufficient refers, whether they are liquid in times of stress to provide customer withdrawal. So if there is not action, we may need to use those tools that are currently on the books to protect people from further problems to put it another way, heres my concern, that a year ago, you said the cfbp was studying stable coins it seems like if you were studying it, ideally you would have found the problem before it exploded and hurt consumers, which it has and these fraud issues in crypto also hurting consumers right now. And youre out with this report. Is there an issue with how youre studying these things or is there a way to study them more quickly so that you find these problems before theyre having the impact that theyre having just to be clear, our primary focus at the cfpb is the Payment System and real time payments so our focus really was on the tech platforms and how wallets might be facilitating Digital Currencies of course, other regulators, theyre also playing their part. But i take your point. There is need for action and all of us with those tools need to figure out how we can collectively use them. The treasury, as you mentioned, was doing studies on stable coins as is issuing reports. We have authorities on the books. We have to look closer at using them, and if Congress Wants to create more, we can use them too. Last question for you, im going to squeeze one in here finally, does the implosion of ftx, does that hurt regulation ultimately Sam Bankmanfried was the face of crypto regulation, the guy in washington do you think regulators and lawmakers feel burned by this episode . What does this do to the future of that, and the crypto industry working with regulators . Well, what im hearing is that obviously, people want to make sure theyre not just copying and pasting from one particular company or actor. We have to step back and look, what are we doing to protect the whole system obviously, and this is an important point, if crypto gets more deeply integrated with the banking system, thats where real Systemic Risk can occur so i think it is another sign, and this isnt the first implosion. Theres been others that happened this year, too. About what do we do to protect not just more immediate fallout, but also broader repercussions for the Financial System all right rohit, thank you, from the cfpb. Well, as carl mentioned, i am here in las vegas today, hosting cnbcs inaugural spark dinner thats kicking off this evening. The focus is on health and technology, some of the biggest opportunities there. The number of great folks are going to join me on stage, including dina shacker of lux capital, and folks from doximity, from a number of organizations. I would point out also maven, maven clinic is going to be with me on stage. Announced today a 90 million seriese round, taking its valuation to 1. 35 billion, dee. In this environment, thats interesting. Its important they focus on womens health, family health. Were also going to have bioformist on stage with me. I might have mentioned doximity, its going to be a great conversation here in vegas alongside the Health Conference happening here, focusing on health and technology. Youll bring us all of the highlights still to come, we have more on amazon, apple, and the Economic Outlook as the nasdaq remains in the red, by about 1 percentage point tech check is just getting started. Welcome back im Kristina Partsinevelos heres whats happening at this hour ukrainian president zelenskyy visiting the new lee liberated city of kherson. He said he believes this is the beginning of the end of the war, as ukrainian troops retake territory from russians. Kherson was the largest city in russian hands and had been occupied for nearly nine months. Russian forces rapidly retreated last week as they pulled back from the south of the country. The university of Virginia Police Just Announced the suspect in yesterdays campus shooting is in custody three were killed and two were hurt sunday and a shelter in place order went out as a manhunt began. The suspect, a former football player, is now in custody. And moderna touting the effectiveness of its new covid booster. The vaccine maker saying the updated shot appears to increase immune response to new omicron variants pfizer said their booster achieved similar immune responses but neither results have been reviewed by outside scientists carl, back to you. Thanks so much. Some new headlines we just got on layoffs the New York Times reporting that amazon is looking to lay off 10,000 employees, and apples chief tim cook appeared on cnbc this morning saying the company is being, quote, very deliberate in its hiring what does that mean for stocks our next guest says apple and microsoft have proven themselves worthy joining us, bmo chief investment strategist its great to have you back. Whats do you make of we have been reading hunker down memos in big tech for a while now. Getting more granular. How does this move the needle in terms of investing strategies . Theres definitely still a lot of macro uncertainty out there. We are expecting earnings cuts into q4. We are expecting probably ongoing declined in ad spend so it does make sense to have stability in the portfolio and as you mentioned, where do you find stability you look to the companies that have proven to be able to weather just about anything you can throw at them. And microsoft and apple have really fit that bill we think of those as core holdings, sort of the big two if you want to throw away the other acr acronyms also looking to really nibble and very selectively nibble on early cycle semi plays, but really focusing on where the end markets remain strong. High selectativity, but keep stability in the portfolio through these Proven Winners and also through the areas of cybersecurity where thats very much still top of the stack spending for most corporations how does that tie in with last weeks bounce in tech, related to cpi and the downward tick in yields especially now that were getting some fed speakers suggesting that maybe the market took it a little too seriously, this one print thats right, it was one months data print we had fed government waller out over the weekend talking about really theres still a lot the fed needs to do that remains, and last week, there was a lot of fear of missing out a lot of short covering, a lot of enthusiasm. But i think this week, were seeing more sort of digesting the move, really thinking about where were headed and that twopronged approach of maintaining stabilityin the portfolio while maybe nibbling early cycle makes a lot of sense here its deirdre, good morning. You mentioned cybersecurity as an area of tech that has remained resilient some of the tracks are showing at least in terms of the stock prices can they really be immune from a spending slowdown . I dont think theyre completely immune, but we want to think about in the space, theres probably going to be consolidation. You probably do want to focus on the broad platform players that even if theres a little bit of a slowdown, we dont expect much, but even if theres a little bit of a slowdown, they can sort of gather sales and customers from other areas because theyre a broad based platform we do think companies are going to want to consolidate a bit we think its still a very safe area to be there has been a pullback, but if you focus on the broad platform companies, that plays out well over time so much attention we have been paying to inflation and the fed when it ands to stocks i wonder if we might have taken our eye off the ball when it comes to the core economy. Theres this weird moment that were having where jeff bezos, the founder and executive chairman of amazon, is saying maybe dont stretch and get that big screen steve sm amazon just started selling its own big screen tvs under its brand about a year or so ago and they had a second prime day this year, seemingly trying to get the consumer to spend, but now hes saying, yeah, you know, maybe not. Things are tough, and as a matter of fact, it looks like they might be laying off some people in their division that does devices and services. Could this be a bigger storm cloud on the horizon of Consumer Spending which drives so much of the economy . And should we be thinking about that from a macro and stock moving perspective well, thats a great question we do think were at an Inflection Point we think the hyperfocus on the fed thats really been driving the markets this year is probably right in the process now of shifting to a focus on the economy and how much the impact of Interest Rates and the slowing economy is going to impact consumers, impact corporations theres certainly some areas of weakness what we expect Going Forward we want to be cognizant of that. A lot of Consumer Spending areas might pull back or remain soft for a few quarters corporations are tightening their belts. We want to think about what the strong end markets are, and we do think that you can look at areas like automotives, industrial, data centers, aerospace and defense. We do think you want to focus on Technology Companies and Semiconductor Companies for that matter if youre nibbling early cycle that really focus on the end markets because were going to have a lot ofareas of dispersion there are going to be some areas that hold up well but other areas that soften in the coming quarters well maybe talk about china and the president s visit to bali and what that might mean for tech later on. Great to see you thanks for the help today. Thank you speaking of semiconductors, lets turn to chips with the ishare semiconductor etf up more than 25 in a month so is it time to get bullish on some chip names . Ubs thinks so. Upgrading amd to buy with a 95 price target saying key cycle indicators are turning. And theyre not the only bulls this morning, baird adding global foundries to its top ideas list highlighting the skillfully navigating the current slowdown with minimal exposure to chip restrictions in china. And sucehahna upgraded asml to positive as they gain positive in the chip maker in a way, chip manufacturing equipment makers prospects Going Forward. Carl, well see sort of how this all shakes out again, i mean, these upgrades at this moment where things are shifting, people have to be careful. Indeed. Especially when were dealing not just with the industry dynamics of supply and demand, dee, but also the overarching conversation between china and u. S. About how we manage this competition without it devolving into conflict. Here to break down his upgrade, mehdi husseini. Why do you like this name and also, what does or doesnt it tell us about the rest of the chip space and cycle yes, so first, thanks for having me on the program just going back to the prior conversation, we did downgrade this sector september of last year where back then, everybody was bullish and everybody was highlighting backlogs and demand up to infinity i think that has played out. The stocks are down 30 to 40 now were looking into growth driver beyond 23. The upgraded asml has to do with the ability to double their earnings and then earnings would probably grow by 10 to 15 from there on there are three primary drivers here first, when you look into 2425, the demand drivers are going to be more than just the smartphone Cloud Infrastructure is going to rebound again, and also you have the ev infrastructure that is going to kick in and materialize. We also have the localization of semiconductors. Were building more fabs outside of the china taiwan region these fabs will be up and ready for equipment movein by early 24. Thats another driver. And then competitive advantage and Competitive Pressure among asmls top three customers theyre competing and theyre going to add a lot of capacity as they compete for the same business over the next three to four years, asml should be able to double their earnings, and we actually are arguing that earnings are going to slow down next year, so it is increased confidence beyond the current slowdown in the Semiconductor Industry our previous guest also said he waze started to nibble on early semi cycle plays what else do you like here i think we have to be careful here the Semiconductor Industry as a whole is just starting with inventory correction that inventory correction is going to accelerate into the first half of next year. You were just highlighting a few minutes ago, it is going to hit the production in the first half, and then looking into the second half, beyond, you have to identify companies that are in absolute command and have a Bargaining Power and asml is basically the only player that could meet demand. They basically own and have monopolized the leading edge, and the company that could increase prices, even in a recessionary environment this sector and asml in particular is starting to work on the long side in late 08 before we hit the recession of 09, and i think the same playbook could apply here and they could continue to outperform even in a recessionary environment i get it. Asml is in a very unique position in the whole chip industry, but i wonder to what degree are you factoring in a potentially steeper global recession, to what degree are you factoring in the possibility that some of these fab the Companies Running these fabs space out their capital spend a little bit more in a deeper recessionary environment, and therefore asml, you know, still, their equipment is still in demand, but perhaps getting pushed out a bit longer than we expected a few months ago. Sure. On the demand side, were modeling for pcs to be down another 10 on the unit basis. Smartphones down 12 , and the Cloud Infrastructure is planning to be down 5 to 10 next year heres the thing you need to keep in mind the lead time for asmls equipment is at least 12 months. Although were going to go into a recession next year, asmls customer will have to install equipment at some point to be ready for 2024 if you argue that the recession is going to be more than 12 months, then there is some downside risk. But as long as the recession is going to be limited to four quarters, i think asml is going to come out with estimates intact mehdi, thanks for your insights well see you soon thank you still to come, amazon appearing set to cut thousands of jobs. Theyre not alone. More on bob chapeks belt tightening at disney next. Dont go away. Oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. News from the future youre going to live through that about 10 more times laughs no stress. I just discovered yieldstreet. They vet investments that dont ride the stock market rollercoaster. [narrator] yieldstreet private market investing. Its not just amazon its not just apple. Disney the latest name to join the growing list of companies tightening their belths. Our Julia Boorstin has a gut check on that. Good morning again. Disney shares are moving higher this morning, more than 1 higher after bob chapek announced in a memo to Division Leaders late obfriday that the Company Plans what he called a targeting hiring freeze. Chapek writing in the memo, quote, hiring for the small subset, the most critical business driving positions will continue but all other roles are on hold. Chapek also saying they will, quote, look at every avenue of operations and labor to find savings, saying we do anticipate some staff reductions as part of this review. This comes on the heels of reporting disappointing earnings which sent disney shares plummeting last week and the company now says its establishing a cost Structure Task force, comprised of chapek, cfo Christine Mccarthy and their general counsel. This all comes as black Panther Wakanda forever reported a record november debut of 180 million in north america that is higher than the studios forecast, but the film may not get a release in china that would be a disappointment after the first black panther film grossed over 100 million there. Guys julia, we spent the hour, the top of the hour talking about amazons reported layoffs which would seem to be centered in areas like alexa and devices, human resources, and even retail areas in which they have invested heavily over the years. Is chapek suggesting those areas of new investment would be immune to cost cutting or does it go to the legacy areas like parks and studios . I think theyre going to be trying to use the cliche, cut the fat across the board and try to figure out where they can be more productive. I think especially in the streaming space, we have to remember, we talked about this a lot last week. Disney is losing so much money around disney plus theyre launching this new adsupported version of disney plus in just a couple weeks but they need to make sure all the content theyre putting on disney plus is worth it, trying to figure out which of those shows, which of those movies are driving people to sign up and holding retention. The other key thing to figure out here, carl, is that if you look at the movie industry, it is traditionally a recession resistant industry if you look back at the last couple recessions, people tend to like to buy tickets to movies and go out to theaters but this time, its different because we have so many streaming options at home. So amid all this cost cutting, disney is also trying to figure out to make sure that theyre not cannibalizing too much of that theatrical business by putting content on disney plus a very complicated situation here fascinating still below 97, obviously. Julia, thank you and speaking of cost cuts, twilio pledging to conduct antiracist layoffs. Well get more on that story in a moment as the nasdaq trimming some earlier losses. We got dovish comments from brainard reflecting on last weeks cpi. Dont go away. At humana we believe your healthcare should evolve with you and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. Humana can help. With original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and Doctor Office visits but youll have to pay a deductible for each. A Medicare Supplement plan can cover your deductibles and coinsurance but you may pay higher premiums and still not get Prescription Drug coverage. But with an allinone humana Medicare Advantage plan you could get all that coverage plus part d Prescription Drug benefits. With no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions. You get all this coverage for as low as a zerodollar monthly plan premium in many areas. Humana has a Large Network of doctors and hospitals. So call or go online today and get your free decision guide. Discover how an allinone humana Medicare Advantage plan could save you money. Humana, a more human way to healthcare. Welcome welcome back as Companies Across the board continue to tighten their belts, some have been feeling the impact more than others. Frank holland is live from austin, texas, and joins us with more frank. Reporter good morning, john. We are here at apple tech, and this conference focuses on black representation in tech, and theres a lot of concern about the impact of tech layoff and the impact on black workers that are under represented in tech. And that is being voiced here and beyond and highlighting the impact on under represented groups, when Tech Companies cut down on their labor force. We saw the impact on black workers, and there was a higher Unemployment Rate and that Unemployment Rate lasted longer through the end of 2020, double digit unemployment for black workers. And the impact of layoff from black tech workers is something they are keeping a close eye on. All of these companies are saying, people that have not been here that long, were not that loyal to them, and we dont necessarily have those champions sitting in the room and saying they are making decisions, who is going to stay and who is going on go . And the funding to black founders and startups plummeted from q1 to q2, and we spoke to robert smith about this just a few weeks ago. They didnt get their fair share of opportunity in gaining access to capital during the massive bull market expansion, and now they are going through a bit of a bear market contractions, and they are seeing reductions in their fundings, and i think thats a mistake on behalf of a lot of the bc community and we have spoke to a lot of people here at the conference, and they said they did bring resumes, and a number of Companies Say they are here hiring and feel like they are hiring for roles that will be secure even in the event of an economic downturn. Thats optimistic, but shocking numbers thank you for bringing that to us look at the biggest laggers. You have the chinese adr, like jd. Com, Still Holding up were back in two. Every piece of cargo is. And where its going. dock worker right on time. vo robots can predict breakdowns and order their own replacement parts. foreman nice work. vo and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow. With a verizon private 5g network, you can get more agility and security. Giving you more control of your business. We call this enterprise intelligence. From the Network America relies on. Xfinity rewards is a program whose sole purpose is to say thank you with experiences big, small and onceinalifetime. Sometimes its about cheering hard enough to shake the stadium sometimes, its as simple as movie night right here at home, on us. You mean the world to us. So were bringing you closer to what you love. Kinda like this. Welcome to 30 rock join xfinity rewards for free on the xfinity app today. Our thanks, your rewards. Ahead of a slew of names reporting this week, target, lowes, the next day, and we will bring you the latest on how ecommer ices holding up on techcheck tomorrow were back in a moment hi, my name is tony cooper, and im going to tell you about exciting Medicare Advantage plans that can provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and Prescription Drugs. With original medicare you are covered for hospital stays and Doctor Office visits but you have to meet a deductible for each, and then youre still responsible for 20 of the cost. Next, lets look at a Medicare Supplement plan. As you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and coinsurance. But they often have higher monthly premiums and no Prescription Drug coverage. Now, lets take a look at humanas Medicare Advantage plans. With a humana Medicare Advantage plan, hospitals stays, Doctor Office visits and your original medicare deductibles are covered. And, of course, most humana Medicare Advantage plans include Prescription Drug coverage. With no copays or deductibles on tier 1 prescriptions, and zero dollars for routine vaccines, including shingles, at innetwork retail pharmacies. In fact, in 2021, humana Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug plan members saved an estimated 9,600 on average on their prescription costs. Most humana Medicare Advantage plans have coverage for vision and hearing. And dental coverage that includes two free cleanings a year, plus dentures, crowns, fillings and more most humana Medicare Advantage plans include a Silver Sneakers Fitness Program at no extra cost. You get all of this for as low as a zerodollar monthly plan premium in many areas; and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humanas Large Network. There is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you could save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. Humana, a more human way to healthcare. One more thing before we go. Even elon musk speaking. Have a listen. Oh, man, i have too much work on my plate. Thats for sure. I say its with great difficult, i mean, im really working at the absolute most amount that i can work from morning until night, seven days a week, so this is not something that i would recommend, frankly so guys, hes working a lot but were seeing the opposite thing happen with tech workers, saw especially here in the bae look at this cover of the San Francisco chronicle this week, and laid off tech workers hunt for jobs you will see more of this, as we started the top of the show with, karl to the degree people are getting calls of interest, its largely from headhunters looking for contract workers, because they will be easier to let go, if, in fact, that happens down the road hunting for a job is a lot of work, and i would argue those folks are working hard and not getting paid for it. And elon, and bankman freed, were reaching that end of the era, hes a billionaire, just trust him. Busy week ahead rest up. Lets get to the half. Thank you very much. Welcome to the halftime report. Is there enough momentum to keep your money going until the end of the year. Joining me for the hour today, jason snipe, amy raskin, and steve weiss and joe tear tear na its the yield on the 10yea