6th grader. The news continues. Good evening. Here in new york alongside Abby Phillips welcome to our special coverage of the countdown to iowa. This is it. We are hours away now from the nations first nominating contest, the stakes may be high but the temperature, certainly is not. It is below 0 in iowa right now on this final full day of campaigning for the republican president ial field. Even with Donald Trumps commanding lead in the latest poll out just last night, the 48 of support from likely caucusgoers is pushing hard for turnout. We are up in iowa, we are really up big. The higher we are up, the higher we go, the better a signal. We send a good signal to New Hampshire, the better signal we send in november that we are taking our country back t. Is really important. You got to get out and vote. Nikki haley and ron desantis is delivering their closing messages to voters, how they vote tomorrow is a crucial question with haley trying to make it a 2person race between herself and donald trump and desantis, of course, looking at a tough road ahead and maybe tough decisions to make if, in fact, he comes in third. It has been 11 months and it comes down to tomorrow. If you will join with us. If you will bring friends and family with you when you do it. I promise you our best days are yet to come. Tomorrow will be fun for us. I like being under estimated. I like being the underdog, i think that is better. If history is any indicator, anything can happen in iowa especially the freezing weather playing a huge role in the last 24 hours. There is new lastminute uncertainty about who is going to show up tomorrow in these frigid temperatures, how many of them and how they will get there. We have Team Coverage on this election eve. We go to des moines following all of the campaign. John king is at the Magic Wall Punching the numbers, chad meyers is in the cnn weather center. You were out in the elements, that is a nice way of putting it, but, you were with several of the candidates including nikki haley. What is she saying right now . As trump has turned up the heat on her in these last 24 hours. Well, i was at that trump event where she, where he went after nikki haley. He did a lot of things at that event which i am sure you will talk about throughout the hour. One of the things he did was really step up what he was saying about her and part of his attack was that she is just not tough enough to be president of the United States. I did catch up with her shortly after in iowa and asked her about that. Donald trump among other things says you are not tough enough to be president , how do you interpret that . I find it comical. When i was at the u. N. He used to say, dont mess with her she is tough. He is saying it because he is in trouble and it is becoming a twoperson race. I know he knows the truth. It does not bother me at all. Another sort of event that happened that ripped around these campaigns was the endorsement that donald trump got from marco rubio his former opponent in 2016 and the governor excuse me the senator of florida despite the fact that the governor is in the race. And i should add that nikki haley endorsed marco rubio back in 2016. I was there at that event. I asked her about that, about her reaction to it and she brushed it off and says the endorsements she is looking for are those from the voters. Of course, marco rubio from the home state of ron desantis as well. Speaking of those voters what are you hearing from them on this election eve . You know, there are still undecided voters, believe it or not. And then there are some who are completely and totally intent on voting for those who they went to see. That is especially true, abby, at the trump event that i was at. I mean, you know, you covered donald trump, i covered donald trump in the past. We saw firsthand people support him. And that is still very, very much at play here. I talked to somebody at his event who is going to be a Caucus Captain tomorrow night and listen to the way she described why she supports donald trump. Is there anything that he could do that would make you walk away from him as a supporter . I would not have any idea what possibly he could do to make me walk away. No. I mean if he, you know, did something bad. I have not seen anything bad. The lord is with him, carrying him through this journey. So, you see that, you hear that, and i heard versions of that over and over and over again when it came to the people who are going to go out in caucus for donald trump. And, you know in 2016 i was here, he lost slightly to ted cruise, before the caucuses he was ahead in the polls. One of the big differences between then and now the Trump Campaign had no organization which really matters here in iowa back then. Now they do, they have been much more aggressive. I talked to another voter who said in 2016 she just went and caucused for trump because she liked him. She did not hear from anybody in the campaign. This time around she is hearing from the campaign and people who are associated with the Trump Campaign over and over again. He certainly needs that given where he is in the polls. Even though he is ahead they are concerned. He is officially concerned, i am told. About complaisancey and of course he is concerned about the weather. Of course, what you just heard from that voter is backed up by the latest polling that we got about the enthous yism. We have cnn chief national correspondent. John, i think the big question is we are getting the new poll numbers in. Where things stand with the Iowa Caucuses. Look, this is my 10th president ial campaign. Covered a lot of the Iowa Caucuses, it sometimes surprises us. The polls are overwhelming, lets bring up the poll and show it over the last five months, forgive me for turning my back. If you go back, reliable poll, you go back five months ago. Former President Trump was at 42 , up to 51. He is at 48 . Nikki haley has gone from 6 up to 20. She can say over the last five months i am going up. Desantis, down a little bit. 19 down to 16 now. Yes, ted cruz was behind and beat donald trump in 2016. Yes, rick was behind and passed mitt romney but the lead was nothing like that. It was not 28 points. It was not insurmountable but it would shock the world if somehow trump did not win. The question would be what. You heard, as you were talking about donald trump says make sure you get out there and vote. He says go out and vote even if you are sick. I need you to vote. They were so confident. Haley movement, not dramatic, not close to trump. But people supporting haley spent 8 million that is her campaign and super packs, pro desantis, 6 million. Trump people have not spent that much 3. 6. They entered the year thinking we got this and now in the last couple of days they are smart. They are well organized. The president said do not get complains ant. If you complaisant, if you are cold, we will give you a ride. Not just getting people out, it speaks to voter enthusiasm. When you look at the numbers what are you seeing about which candidate here has the most enthusiastic supporters . It could matter if the weather is as bad as we are predicting it is going to be to motivate people to leave their homes to go out to their school gym to caucus. Without a doubt. I will show you where people live. Total population, the larger the circle the more population. Nicky hail segoing to surprise us it will be the suburbs. Those people dont have to drive as far, right . These small rural counties, that is where trump does well. 1520, maybe more miles to go to their caucus site. Do they do that in the snow . That is where the Organization Matters and that is where enthusiasm matters. Look, i dont need to tell the two of you, a lot of time covering trump, a lot of time, his people tend to be locked in. Look at this. Are you extremely enthusiastic for your candidate . Only thirty nine of haley supporters said that. More moderate, first time caucusgoers that has been trumps, trump card, forget the pun, it is intentional. His people tend to be locked in. We will see if that helps on a very, very, very cold day tomorrow. Thank you for that. It could make a difference. As we mentioned, brutally cold weather will be the big wild card for turnout tomorrow. The caucus, we go to the Severe WeatherCenter Tracking the forecast. It has been, i can not imagine the cold happening right now in iowa. What more can people expect tomorrow . Again, tonight, a very cold night. It does not get above freezing and does not get above 0 for the entire state tomorrow. That means pipes could be breaking, that means other things are going to be going wrong in homes around iowa. You talk about it all of the time about trying to keep your pipes moving. Make sure that under the cabinet the Cabinet Doors are open so the heat can go under the sink. Even right now, the air temperature, the thermometer is 13 degrees below 0 in des moines. At least it is not blowing around. If it is one good thing there will be no snow and not a blizzard out there. But we do know in 2004 there was a big drop in the Population Density that went to these poll presidency, and it was 16. Tomorrow, the high will be minus 4. 20 degrees colder than upon when we know there was a problem with populations going to the polls. They say wait, it is just iowa, just cold all of the time. No, minus 4 is 30 degrees colder than you should be. This is cold on animals, it is cold on people, and can in some places dangerous. Fairbanks alaska will be 9. Des moines is minus 4, 13 degrees warmer in fairbanks, Something Else that we have not assessed is that so far, up to this date, we have had the warmest winter on record in iowa. Animals are not used to it. If it is winter i like it. But then you get smacked in the face of 13 degrees and a windchill of minus 30 you will not be ready. It is a no thank you for me. Thank you very much. Lets bring in our panel who is warm inside with us and not in iowa. Scott, i have been hearing from a lot of Trumps Campaign people, people, they are worried about turnout tomorrow. They are concerned that if there is not a huge turnout he will not have the resounding victory they are looking for. What is the concern about what it could look like . It is an expectations game. Polling, 48 in the registered poll, emerson survey, had him at 55, and cbs survey nationally he is at 69 . So, sort of unheard of the idea that the party would not nominate someone higher nationally. But if it comes under what they are forecasting it provides a narrative for haley or desantis to say look. And god can believe. So, they have been trying to lower expectations the biggest win, 12. 8 . They will spend anything above that norm as a historic victory. The reality is, they need to beat 20 plus to keep up where the Polling Set Expectations dont you think, though, trump benefits the most in these kind of weather . Given what the polls say about enthusiasm . Look at the numbers, we were just talking about them. 88 of iowa voters who would support trump are extremely enthusiastic, nikki haley is down there at 39 . That is why they were stunned by how the enthusiasm was so low but the support is second i know, a number of Warning Signs in that. Once you are passed the top line that was good for her, she jumped into second place. I mean her favorable rating declined. 21 in august. Just about even in this poll. The Enthusiasm Number that you mentioned. Half of her support is from democrats and independence. And, it seems to me that to show up as a caucus and sit there for an hour or two and listen to republicans make speeches to cast a ballot on a, with a windchill of 40 degrees below outside. It seems like a stretch. You know, deantis and trump each of their support is like 80 made up of republicans. There are a lot of things that would worry me if i were haley in this. We have two races going on. Trump versus expectations and desantsis. Those are the two desantis. Those are two things. Today, alone, he was saying she is too liberal. The same backers as president bid pen, talking about the people who funded her campaign. Claiming wrongly, that she sides with the democrats on immigration. And one of his aligned packs spent 4. 5 million against her in the final stretch. Here is the problem that donald trump could run into. Everyone here agrees he is going to win tomorrow, but such a commanding lead, it is easy to say other folks will show up. That might be a bigger measure than enthusiasm in the poll. Nikki haley was interesting is many of the second choice people that are supporting nikki haley are joe biden. I wonder if voting for change for something other than trump, other than the status quo could be a bigger motivator. That could be. I was going to say donald trump also put a lot of energy in first time caucusgoers while this is when you really hope the infrastructure that they did try, they did build this year unlike in 2016 actually pays off. You know, first time voters it usually takes seven touches for them to leave their house, go to the polls and vote. And that is when it is 45 degrees out. You better hope the staff that you have, volunteers that you have will be able to touch those folks and convince them to show up. If you are looking for a first time caucus voter, you can love trump, but negative 40 windchill i dont know what that feels like. I dont want to know this poll, he was winning first time caucusgoers but the next person was haley at 14, i think. So, he is doing pretty well with the first time caucusgoers. That is their focus. Not people who are uninitiated. They are going, trump voters not participated in caucuses before, the operation is focused on this for months. We will see how it works in these ridiculous temperatures. I will take the other side of this. We have seen people show up for trump rallies. You know, you were there. Hot, cold, rainy. That is just to show up and watch something. Now, now with vindication at hand, their first chance to show up and actually do something. I think come Hell Or High Water they are going to show up. We will have massive attendance and oftentimes voters do not show up. He wases in iowa today. I assume tomorrow. It is much more motivating if you get to see the man of donald trump than deal with the caucus. One of the things that he has done in this campaign, though, is, i mean, trump may be sort of wackier than ever in some ways but the organization is more rational than ever. They ran this race the way, you know, we would of, others would have, they had a theory of the case, they have been hammering away. That is a high complement. I like that, well conceived strategies. We will see. My chair could be sinking tomorrow. [ laughter ] can we listen to the sound bite from trump today where he was speaking about getting turnout, people getting them to come out. This is what he told supporters. You must go caucus tomorrow, very first step, you got to do it. You got to get out. You cant sit at home. If you are sick as a dog, even if you vote and then pass away it is worth it. If you are sick, if you are sick, darling i dont think get up, get up oh, boy. How selfish, right . Iowa voters know how important this is. They actually know all eye are on them right now. This is a choice if you want to get rid of donald trump or dont. For all of those voters they may have just as much emotion to show up as well. When i look inside of the numbers for that right away. And talk about the organization, i agree trump has the intensity and organization he has had in three tries. It is desantis. His organization could push him. He can find a few points there that they are not seeing showing up. We will see if it happens, they are hoping so. Everyone is sticking around. We have lots more to discuss with the panel. Votersville to brave the freezing temperatures, the question is, will there be any surprises . The head of iowas Republican Party is Herere Withth his prpredictions s right afteter a break. Lifethreatening windchills, icy roads, just a few things that are facing iowaians as they prepare to caucus tomorrow as we have been warning. The coldest caucus night in history. Iowaians are a tough bunch. They are not scared of snow or cold. Joining me now is jeff, chairman of the Republican Party in iowa who i am sure is keeping an eye on the weather. We know you are tough in iowa, are you worried about the effects that this weather could have on turnout tomorrow . Well, i mean, i dont know if we will have a record turnout. We have enthusiasm and Organization Abilities of these campaigns, looked like we were in an environment to shoot for that 186,000. I dont know if we will get there. I really do believe it will be robust. Today was clear, the ice that we are going to have another 24 hours for the snowplows to get out. Does not look like whiteout or blizzard. We are focused on the temperature. There will be multiple, multiple times where it is below 0 out here in iowa. We are used to that and to the precautions that you take. I honestly believe that we are going to have a robust turnout. From my perspective. I will let the rnc know what iowaians did and we need to be the first in the nation again. That will be one of my pieces of evidence i am hoping they will not let me down, i dont think they will. We will see about that. I do have a question about that. On the weather today, kay henderson, obviously a veteran of the state, she notes in reporting tonight, 28 counties, the 28 counts only have one location to go and caucus. It could mean a long drive for those folks. I understand the sites were decided before the weather was that a good idea . Are you worry about peoples safety . Well, ultimately, ultimately that is the decision of each one of the County Committees as a Republican Party of iowa we agraigate it. If you have a super site or not, we have one county down on the missouri border that has i believe over 13 different sites. And, so, as long as there is not snow on those roads, iowaians know the precautions and how to handle that. We are giving advice to all of the chairsment make sure the lines are inside as they are moving through, obviously people can register at that particular site to be a rep