Indictment watch. Safe to say Donald Trumps team is right to be worried. The former president could be charged this week with prloting to overturn the 2020 election. What will it main for his campaign to return to the white house. Plus the desantis burn out. What is the plan to turn his Campaign Around . They want to see you be able to stand up and fight back against the people that are destroying this country. Nobody has done that more than me. And bidens record. There is good news on inflation, immigration, and crime. So why dont voters believe it . Hoello and welcome to insie politics sunday. Im abby phillips. This morning we have new polls in two key states. That are the s out of iowa and South Carolina all year and in iowa donald trump has a 30point lead over ron desantis with tim scott there nipping at his hiells. Trump lda big lead in South Carolinaith the states former governor nikki haley in a tie for second place with desantis. Senator tim scott also from South Carolina is only other candidate in the doubledigits there. Lots to discuss. Here with us in the studio is harry enten and errol lewis of Spectrum News and Shelby Talcott and Shane Goldmacher of the new york times. So these polls seem to confirm what we maybe knew all along which is that donald trump is still very far in the lead and all of the other challengers are still struggling to even get close . Yeah. It is certainly he has the frontrunner, hes acknowledged recently that hes so far ahead he could have to do something seriously wrong to lose the lead. Well we have indictments coming but well talk about that later in show. In the South Carolina poll, this is something that desantis supporters have been concerned about for a few months now, is the fact that they have two people from South Carolina in the race and so their argument to me over the past few months has been all of those votes, if nikki haley and tim scott were in the not race, would go to ron desantis and he would be closing the gap. So whether or not all of the votes would go to them remains to be seem but a trunk would so that is notable because that is representing what theyve been concerned about for a little bit of time now. Shane, you have a great piece t times today which is what happening in the desantis campaign. Which is frank soul searching, the donors an allys are nervous and one person close to the governor is experiencing a challenging learning curve. That is to say the least. And this week hes in park city in utah for a Re Trooe Preplanned but a lot of the changes come back in the last week that showed state of his campaign. Which is they were spending more then than they expected and raising less money that he they expected an the rates were not competitive to be through the iowa caucus and through super tuesday. So theyre saying were making some changes. But that poll captures the challenges he has. Right now hes closer to pack of people far behind than to donald trump. And that is a ricky place for a candidate who has been trying to portray this as a twoperson race. He cant afford to be behind tim scott or nikki haley if he wants to say this is a twoperson race between him and donald trump. And just one note about your story, errol, you also report some news that that video that was denounced as antilgbtq tried to criticize trump for being too friendly to gay and trans people was created by the desantis staffer and then they handed it off to someone and pretented like they didnt make it but it was theirs all along. It speaks to the silos where the campaign has set up there is not happening and for the first time were saying that this wasnt just a supporter, a meme that they were amplifying, they pushed out and was out there, oh, look, people should look at this but turned out people should be behind it all ang lo. That is part of what is gone wrong here. That is sophisticated to try to create something and launder it through some outside performer. They con pull that off. But the more serious problem was spending 200,000 every day and 40 cents on the dollar is vanishing out of their fundraising. There are other signs of serious problems. What saw that jumped out of me, no members of congress have come out and endorsed him. This is a person who served terms in congress. Maybe the guy who sat next to you. Anybody . Well the answer is he was not the most friendly guy when he was in congress so to that point exactly. Harry, one of the other interesting observations that some folks have had when you look deep into the numbers, not just in the fox poll but in other polls recently, desantis is losing ground, among College Educated white votersm look at the numbers from quinnipiac. Since july or since february, he has lost 22 points from College Educated white voters and trump has gained 12 and haley and scott has also gained. What going on here. This speaks to the problem of Ron Desantiss campaign and who he wants to be. The antitrump vote within the gop is in the middle and it is among college graduates. Yet ron desantis wanted to rub run a campaign further and further to the right alienating those that are antitrump and weve seen in the polling numbers, you know, part of this is trump is going up because of the indictments and some rallying around the base. But it also speaks to the fact that ron desantis has become less well loved. There is these this very favorable number if you look across an aggregate of polls, it was near 50 . That is how many republicans have a favorable view of ron desantis at the beginning of the year. Now the number has dropped into the mid30s. So it is not just that trump is becoming better likes, it is that desantis is less liked. These are the voters paying the closest attention to primary. And that happened in 2020. That is the group that moves. Theyre following the news and when desantis is struggling and hes losing support. It is the volatile group and it is a dangerous base to have in both the democratic and Republican Party because they move as the news moves. So one other not having so great of a weekend. Mike pence, he was on with dana bash today and i want you to take a listen. Republican primary voters know that we need new leadership based on then enthusiasm and the support that were seeing not only across New Hampshire this week but iowa and states around the country. Im convinced well have a new Standard Bearer in this party. Hes in the singledigits in the polls. Who would you never consider and his numbers are the highest on that front. I think the problem with pence is that he has a message. He had a clear message. The bulk of Republican Voters, a. , are still very angry that he certified the election. Weve seen him on the grown try to kind of combat that messaging. To be determined if it is working. It doesnt seem like it based on the polls. But also, be, his message is not where the Republican Base is any more. Speaking of, harry, you were talking about ron desantis kind of veering away from the middle here. One of the ways that we saw that happening was with all of the woke stuff in florida. Hes running on his florida agenda. One of the things that have come out of florida is changes to the educational curriculum here. So here is what change, instruc instances could be used for their personal benefit. The instruction includes acts of Violence Perpetu against and by African Americansut it is not mited to the 1906 atlanta riot and the 1990 d. C. Race riot and the 1921 Tulsa Massacre and the 1923 Rosewood Massacre as well. So the Education System is in florida changing and i think this is something that is penetrating to the public. Listen, youve got a florida strategy byr ron desantis that is not selling so well in florida. He have him on an hostile administrative attack on the civil rights movement, on womens rights when it comes to abortion with the sixweek ban. With him attacking or disparaging or demeaning lgbt rights and he thinks this is the path to attracting the evangelical base, i guess, but that doesnt seem to be working. Soee so hes throwing away what was supposed to be his trump card which is the economy and 7 inflation in florida is not helping either. And this put him on a Collision Course with the Vice PresidentKamala Harris who really went down to florida to talk about this. This is her and also how desantis responded. How is it that anyone could suggest that in the midst of these atrocities, that there was any benefit to being subjected to this level of dehumanization. I think that their probable going to go show some of the folks that eventually parlayed, you know, being a blacksmith into doing things later in life. So just as a reminder, were talking about slaves here who later in life they would have been enslaved. So im not sure what being a blacksmith would be helpful to them in that respect when they were still enslaved. But well leave the conversation there for now. Everyone stand by. Coming up next for us. The republican frontrunner is now staring down the barrel of yet another potential indictment this week. So will this one shake up the race . Outes. So you can deliver more value to your customers. Fastst. Reliable. Perfectly orchestrated. The United States postal service. 1 isnt a status earned overnight. Its earned in every wash, and reearned every day. Tide. Americas 1 detergent. And there he is. Chaz. The rec leagues selfcrowned pickleball king. Do you just bow down . No you dethrown the king. Pedialyte. 3x the electrolytes. Okay everyone, our mission is complete balanced nutrition. Together we provide nutrients to support immune, muscle, bone, and heart health. Yaaay woo hoo ensure with 25 vitamins and minerals and ensure complete with 30 grams of protein. Donald trump may be on the cusp of a third criminal indictment. And this one could be the most serious. It revolved around his efforts to stay in power after losing the 2020 election. The former president responded though with a very familiar argument. Very unfair. Very unfair situation. Why did they do it two years ago. Why didnt they do it like when it would have been, you know, timely. But there is no timely. They did it because it is Election Interference. They did it right in the middle of my campaign. That is called Election Interference and it is called weaponization of the justice system. There has never been anything like this. There is that. But also last week a federal judge said a mayh trial date for trump in the other case he faces on classified documents. So that means that hell spend next year campaigning not just for president but also foris freedom. There are w three trials scheduled for the first half of the next year as Republican Voters are deciding who is their president ial nominee. That is a Nightmare Scenario for republicans. Trump could be convicted of federal crimes after winning the primaries. Which is why trump continues to run on his legal troubles. I mean, Here Is A Quote From Steven Chung who is one of trumps spokesperson. He said Republican Voters, they see another political indictment or Target Letter and they know it is just the weaponize add Justice Department going after President Trump. So much of the legal messaging is political message and so much of the political messaging is legal messaging. You cant separate them. No, it is completely intertwined an it is intentional because it is really the only way they could run this campaign and also fight multiple indictments. So what i think were going to see in the shortterm, as hes fighting these indictments and campaigning, is virtually no changes to the schedule just because the trials have not ramped up to the point where it is going to effect him. So next week hell have had been interview on thursday with an outlet im told that even if the indictment drops that day, there is no changes to his schedule. Hell be going to iowa on friday and doing a rally in pennsylvania on saturday. That will remain the same regardless of what the legal what legal things happen. But what i think is notable, when im, and im sure youve had this situation as well, when i call up trump people to talk to them, theyre calling me back and saying, i was talking to lawyers. So it is really like i cant i dont think you can overscore how much these two things are intertwined. It has got to suck up the oxygen in the room. When you have your spokes people and advisers and lawyers need to get lawyers because theyre also in legal jeopardy, that is a practical weight on your campaign. They have tried to put a good fats on it and tried to make lemonade out of lemons and saying hur find raising goes up. There was a harris poll that said that Something Like 57 of republicans think that these charges are there for political reasons. Meaning, they basically accept autoim going to show you wh folks are talking about in terms of funaing. This is what it looks like ever raigned over the last couple of months. Fundraising just spikes. Yeah. And then dropped back down. And then drops back down to normal. But they have incentive. But the other part is that there is a theory out there and a reasonable one to think that donald trump has a lot at stake here because his goal is to win and pardon himself, hes going to win first. So hell try as hard as he can. And the other theory is perhaps there is some deal of a lifetime for great deal maker to try and trade dropping out of the race for making all of these cases go away. Now neither of those is likely. But they are both possibilities. And i think that is partly why were going to continue to see the legal and the political arguments intertwined throughout this campaign. I would just note, the polling has gotten better for m. Yeah, lets show that too. Here is the gop primary support after the new york indictment and then the florida indictment. Right. You could see that you saw this big jump after the new york indictment. Florida, a little bit holding steady. But hes higher now than he was back in early march. The race has become a oneman race between donald trump and himself. But here is the one thing i will note, there is a big difference between an indictment and a potential conviction down the roo down the road and the one thing that seemed to move Donald Trumps numbers was the 2022 midterm where the underperforming and he was seen as a quote unquote loser. If he were to get convicted that is a whole new territory. A indictment is one thing but a conviction is something different. And i found that calendar to be fascinating. Re looking at the first months of 2024 being dominated by a series of primaries as well as trial dates and yet when you look at those iowa and South Carolina polls that came out today on fox news, donald trump is winning the electability argument. Republican primary voters still see him as the candidate. And that is the consolidation over his own party and the challenge for other candidates even as hes facing a potential indictment over january 6 arent able to attack him on that issue. Not only are they not able to, theyre doing the onsy. Just listen to what theyve been saying. They are hunting republicans. That is wrong. I do not want to see my opponents eliminated because of the actions of a corrupt federal Administrative Police state. His reckless words on that dayen dayen on that day endangered all of us. It is going to be a further and further zrks distraction and that is why im running. We need a new generational leader. We cant keep dealing with this drama. As shane said, Thbs The Problem that trumps opponents are having and it is almost outside of their control. That is that they have to walk this fine line between not directly attacking trump, because when i talk to voters out on the ground, even the ones who are open to voting for somebody other than trump or openly dont want trump still dont want to go out and vote for someone that is going to attack trump and therein lies the problem. How do you defend trumps actions an keep good with base that believes that the doj is politicized and were seeing this fine line that all of the candidates are trying to walk and it is tough. So, desantis really tested where that line is this week. Let me play what he said and ill tell you what happened afterwards. I think it was shown how he was in the white house and didnt do anything while things were going on. He should have come out for forcefully. Of course, that. Not exactly the most toughest denouncement of trump. But the Trump Campaign and Trump Supporters really went all in going after him. Jason miller, another trump spokesperson said, called him ron decheney. That is a reference to liz cheney there if youre not familiar. But that is of the mildest of touches on trump an that is the rye reaction, and they understand what going on on the ground and they dont want to get booed or turn off voters. Theyre impossible. You have people like mike pence whose life was threatened and still licking the shoes of people who he all but ordered attack him. So theyre in an impossible situation. They may be relying on the courts to eliminate trump for them. That is not a safe bet and certainly not before january. So theyll all continue to cluster at bottom of the polls and continue to attack the Justice Department which is unfortunate and it is unfortunate that more people dont understa