State university who have encouraged my scholarship. His Angela State University by the way and i really appreciate the fact that for four years they have encouraged me to study what to me is a very interesting subject matter and i intend to do it for as long as i can. And finally i would like to thank all of you for coming. It is always a great pleasure to speak to the World Affairs counsel of houston. This is a great place to speak and im really happy to be here and away from the oasis in the desert of saint angelo. Let me talk about what im going to try to do hopefully successfully today as im going to talk about key events that have occurred really since february. I take that back really since november of 2013. The uncle of kim jongun by marriage of going to tie the events i talk about to this book north korea and Regional Security in the kim jongun era and for our cspan viewers its available on amazon as well. So lets talk about when kim jongun took over. Before he took over people who study who are korean studies specialist like myself actually predicted this guy grew up in bern in switzerland for most of his life. He had a picture of Michael Jordan on his wall he understands western democracy and economic economics so he will change. Well we will see. I will address what is taking place in the first two and a half years of jonguns rule the third kim. My assessment is that he is quite simply carrying out his fathers military policy so we are going to look at military things first. People ask me if bruce were you in the military . I say no i was in the marine corps. Several things that jongun has done. First of all they have conducted another nuclear test since his father died. Within three months after his father died which was the largest most contained test of the North Koreans have conducted and the iranians were there. I wonder what that means. To taepodong missile test. Everyone knows what the taepodong is right . A shortrange Ballistic Missile and the long range Ballistic Missile. The taepodong missile series at the North Koreans have is a three stage missile and experts in our Nations Capital and in many of our unclassified reports in our nations intelligence agencies etc. Were saying that north korea simply was using to primitive materials and technology to successfully launch a three stage missile. Guess what folks . On 12 12 12 december 12, 2012 the North Koreans successfully launched a three stage missile and put a satellite into orbit. What does that mean . It means they can hit alaska or hawaii at least but not texas. He in addition to that they have the croissant 13 also called the kn eight under development. The reason i would like to express to you folks while this is so important is because this missile has the same types of ranges that the taepodong service has but it comes on a mobile launcher so instead of having to put it on a big pad and take it down on the train and fuel it they put it on a transporter launcher basically along tractortrailer that lifts up like this and then they just fired the missile. What does that mean . It means warning time is drastically cut short for americans. Its harder for us to get ships into position and Ballistic Missile defense because all they have to do is let that thing up and fire it. How far along is the Missile System but with jongun continues to be developed and if things arent bright enough im going to cheer you people up. The North Koreans are developing a new and it looks like they have already developed it based on the test launches that they did in recent months a new for them 300millimeter of sippola sippola a Rocket Launcher system. The system and put on the dmz between the two koreas can hit not just seoul at sub seoul. Why is that important . What do we have south of seoul . Hossanah airbase so very important stuff. They already have local Rocket Launchers and longrange guns that can target parts of seoul read much of this has come to the floor after kim jongils death. Most of what ive talked about after kim jongils death so its good to know i guess that jongun is carrying on his fathers legacy. What about conventional forces . I think the biggest problem guys like me have with conveying the north korean threat is folks like yourself welleducated folks that care about International Affairs often watch shows like frontline and i tutu when the cable is down. Thats a joke. Frontline recently did an expoee on north korea where they had hidden cameras. I dont know how many of you that cnet. It was very compelling because it was in pyongyang where most tourists go. These were villages and towns outside of pyongyang and it was horrible. It showed crumbling infrastructure no electricity no fuel no food, starving people and beggars in the streets. So its hard to look at that backdrop and look at and say they are a big military threat. The reason north koreas 1. 1 million man military is a threat to reason they are still able to maintain that threat is because they take the resources away from those people that are struggling just to survive and get them to the military. Something to keep in mind. Let me give you some examples. 980 tanks. The North Koreans builds 900 new tanks in the past seven years. We have some military guys in the background. I did a presentation at georgetown three weeks ago and there was an army colonel in the audience. I said how many tanks is 900 tanks and he goes all out. So we got really technical you know. The North Koreans have also in the past seven years reorganized many of their units along the front core along the frontline. They now have seven new special Operations Forces divisions along the dmz so interesting stuff. So what does this mean . What does this mean this military part of that . What is their actual capability . Right now today our conventional forces are capable of inflicting hundreds of thousands of casualties within the first few days of that conflict. That makes war a nonoption for us. Just something to think about. There are other things going on however in north korea. There are a lot of recent events excuse me. Not just the recent purging of john zaun tagged and im glad linda brought that up. He getting in late february this new multiple Rocket Launcher started to be tested off of the east coast. Why were they testing at . What was the American Military doing in february of 2014 . Anybody no . They were conducting a joint and combined exercise but the south Korean Military so essentially what they were telling us was yeah you guys go ahead and practice for war. We are ready and they testfired Rocket Launchers and free rockets over ground which are also called frogs but looked nothing like an amphibian and scud missiles and eventually at the end of all this the United States secretary of state Japanese Foreign minister were meeting in japan. When that happened the North Koreans fired no missiles. Why would they fire no missiles . Obviously when we were doing our joint exercises they were showing us that they could combat us anytime they wanted to and when we met with the japanese they were showing us they could hit a japanese missile because it has arranged to hit tokyo. But wait theres there is more. Also immediately after this whole test firing of these weapons to place on the east coast on the west coast along what is basically a maritime dmz known as northern limit line the North Koreans fired probably about 500 shells some of them actually a quarter of them 25 so actually went over the line in the south korean waters. What did the South Koreans due . The south Korean Marine scrambled their selfpropelled howitzers and fired back at them into north korean waters. Face graham pulled the best that they have the f15 k. And they moved the south korean citizens on the silence to improve shelters, shelters that had been improved since the artillery attack of 2010 on yongpyeong islands. What is interesting about all of that is after all this was done in north korea had splashed shells and south koreas water and south koreas splashed shells and north koreas water so they had a splashing contest initially. The South Koreans had reacted and the South Koreans discovered a it crashed north korean drone with a camera on it that was filming the whole thing. My assessment of what was going on is the North Koreans are now looking for a new way to conduct a provocation on the northern limit line. Och they executed him by a mortar round. It is an artillery piece. And they just lower it like that and literally blew him to pieces. So the naysayers abutted humanrights violator like his father, by the end of 2013, twothirds of senior generals were replaced or move to route different jobs. But april 2013 the bodyguard detail was increase. And then there was a number two there is no such thing. There is several the virtues. But since then has been reassigned to so now he is a twothirds general as well. He was seen as defacto number two but in order to some of you know, this already. North korea consist of three institutions the party party, military, Security Services and there is a fourth entity that is the kim family regime that inner circle and directly related to the campus or the grandsons who fought as a partisan leader became generals to fought against south korea 1950. You must control all three of those Key Institutions and there is no one guy who controls the party or the military. There are three chains of command. So none of them have complete power over one institution they all inserts to kim jongun selfie does not control the institution, nobody is. How did this whole process seibald . How many remember the cnn coverage when kim jongil died . And the car through the of snow . How many people have seen three faces of eve . [laughter] the Academy Award winning performance. [laughter] but if you look at the car there eight people that were escorting kim jongil body and kim jongun no success been purged or reassigned those were the main guys and most of them are not there anymore least not in key positions. In 2013 the whole year the passage of a purge has occurred but the big purchase occurred November November 2013 when jongun uncle was purged first then executed. I will talk about that in a couple of minutes. Let me remind you how powerful jongun is or is not. A good friend of mine who is a caribbean scholar we were talking at a restaurant there when my wife said kim jongil is weaker than his father. The next to him will be weaker than kim jongil. How week will depend if the regime survives or not. That is true. He must control the Key Institutions, the party. The military and the Security Services. And also with turmoil in the of military what if he cannot control these institutions . We could have Something Like a civil war but there is not in any way for the north korean government to survive unless they have a oneman rule and he controls the institutions. The dprk has not existed as the government with any other way. What do you do when you have this kind of thing . If your power is weak you purge. Most of you probably heard about his uncle who looks a lot like kim jongil. Almost like a female which they will give you can imagine that. I have a pitcher here i would be happy to show which to you. And north korea public purges are almost unheard of. It just doesnt happen. Talking to a group of throat song dash a group of folks talking to an organization of the department he had a few before kim jongil died and he was reported to have died in an auto accident in pyongyang. Jesse now traficant pyongyang is not like it used to be. [laughter] so what do you think the chances are he really died in the auto accident . [laughter] that is normally what happens somebody is executed or sent off to their reeducation camp. They dont want to embarrass the party. But they announced he was purged, executed, why it was done, they said corruption, was it . Yes but charging a korean highranking Party Official with corruption is like charging robert e. Lee with murder at gettysburg. Who is guilty . All of them. Falafel love intrigue continues. So some rumors repeatedly his wife turned her husband in for which they thought was crimes against this day and to force him on the day he was executed. His brother led them with pistols and arrested them. There was even a rumor active in the Chinese Press that he and his two peace aborted its were executed by a dog sam thrown naked into a katy and eaton to death literally. Pretty horrible. I dont think that is what happened to another rumor that i think he died more likely he was executed by antiaircraft machine gun that dues chris slade but at least to go faster than being eaten by a dog. There is a lot of rumors. Those terrific things that they do to keep their opponents down. That is what is going on right now in north korea. But the of real reason it wasnt for corruption the he was likely purged because he had factual the station in the government. He had moved himself into position where he had to rise in Foreign Ministry cover absolutely loyal to him, guys said the party absolutely loyal to him and the Security Services with the ministry of Peoples Security and generals. What does that mean . A separate faction forming with the number three in ruling infrastructure in that has not happened since 1957. That is when kim told the attendees to leave his country and the prosoviet faction in the approach tidies faction. Everyone was wondering which you would purge . He purged growth. That is the way the kim family does that. We have not seen the turmoil since back then. Trust me kim jongun power base is more tenuous than his grandfathers and 1937. So my assessment is that ken is having a hard time to hold onto his power. Relatives and friends and cohorts sending more is not a sign of strength. It is us sign of weakness. Something to keep in mind. Something else to pass on , i hope now that i have talked about the Security Services and the kim family inner circle it should be apparent there is no such a thing as a member to. There are lots of number choose the number two and a fivestar general in the military and the state Security Court in des all answer to separate chains of command. This is done on purpose the patrimony real politics system to divide and conquer and even though it was the big blow it was overwhelming because there were several members choose there were probably advising kim jongil to execute his uncle. By the way but the Second Chapter deals with military developments with the Ballistic Missile program. But dealing with provocations and how we can avoid it since we will see those within the next year and now that we have been talking about the instability with the north korean government it is important to tell you the nexttolast chapter deals with what we do, us and our allies and the International Community of north korea collapses. That is a chapter to go in depth how we could collapse the International Community could react and give back of foreign policy. What does the future hold . I am very serious, if we talk about in dg number three it is important to understand it will never ever ever ever give up its Nuclear Weapons. Not only they consider this important to National Security but a legacy for greater domestic form of government he dreamed of having a Nuclear Weapons and passed it to his son now part of the grandsons legacy. As long as the king family is moving north they will keep the Nuclear Weapons it does not matter what they tell us. We can also plan to see north korea go down to continue to engage with proliferation and illicit activities. of those is syria. For example, the chemical weapons the Ballistic Missiles, almost all of them from north korea scud b, d, a steady they are all in the iran inventory all purchased from north korea. Tanks, trucks, artillery, are pg they buy them from north korea and much of it goes to has the law which is a terrorist organization when he chose to purge his uncle anyway but it could rock north korea even harder than it did this time. I am sure you are sitting in your seats rocking back and forth. Can he survive . The answer is maybe. The of leader of north korea must have control of the database and power base and kim jongun does not have that. He does not yet have control of Security Services and his own family. If you want to talk about will he survive . Yes. If he consolidates the power base to the point he can control the country of the Key Institution but if he has the troubles he has now been passed to end it cannot keep going on like this. So lets say kim jongun and ran the regime to collapse. What