Physically at least invest in those countries or asset class is. Then i think how the world will change with the emerging markets to riga heavy lifting producing the stuff that we consume and we thought this was a good deal. That has not been of a good deal for them ended gravy train for americans but that will and and when the producers start to consider what will they consume . So what somebody in china will buy will be different than what the american buys in china if they buy a car chases are it is the first car but in america they just trade the old one and. In china it is printed do so there is a lot of steel and resources. A lot of the cars they will get from lusby will sell them the used cars we cannot afford to drive because gasoline prices are too high one of the reasons they are driving less is they dont have a job. Why Energy Consumption is down so much but it will go down more because now they will have jobs but cannot afford the gasoline because as the dollar collapses what happens . They collapse so with the prices go down everybody tries to say inflation is bad it is great with Consumer Prices the best thing that happens is prices go down when the dollar collapses for everybody else that will go way down and what you do with the price of something goes down . To buy more. Why do we all have self loans . Why didnt we when gordon gekko had his . 2,000 apiece in a net cost almost that much to make a call but now they are cheap people buy things because the price goes to and we enjoyed a higher standard of living that is what will happen outside the United States with america will see prices skyrocketing but it doesnt have to me that way for you because if you get your money out of dollars and zero the assets and the currencys get yourself on the Receiving Side because 300 million americans will be a lot polar but others will be a lot richer as far as what the currency can buy. If you can reallocate your portfolio now, then you will benefit from that transition and have more purchasing power looking at net asset if a country becomes richer assets are more valuable if they become poorer they become less a valuable. I will own u. S. Realestate if america is a port nation that real estate is a lot less valuable because it is worth you can rented for but if everybody is broke spending threequarters of income on food and electricity how much do they have left to pay rent . In the collapsing economy they moved in with their parents or their kids or take on borders to rent out rooms. So the of purchasing power goes down this is bigger than 2,008 how is it possible such a big crisis is on the horizon and hardly anybody sees it . That is what happened before. The same thing and it is happening all over again. The people that were warning about the are wrote last prices are warning about the next one because we understand the problem we know the government did not solve that but made it worse said you have to recognize you will not have a Second Chance to get this right and what will be much crisis but in 2008 the dollar rose around reckons lows around 70 and rose the next crisis will not happen that way it will imploded is a dollar crisis it will require a different approach to a lot of people think it is a repeat of 2008 but it will not happen the fed will not let it. Bet on falling prices even though that is what we need a key and printing of money to make sure the dollar loses value and as the world rushes to get out of it will be a different crisis so get a right and the early dont be late. Get your accounts set up and we can talk to if you have questions, by the booth to talk specifically about the brokerage accounts, the fee is, how to get started, the i. R. A. We have several brokers year from the office i dont have time to take a cue when they buy will be at the bruce, i i will do my best to answer it by about a time. Thank you for coming. [applause] 84 come make [inaudible conversations] who is hungry for lunch . Raise your hand for i am always hungry. We have a unique opportunity a very distinguished panel and they are going to discuss world war i and contrary to some of the rumors going on a freedom fest none of these men actually fought in world war war i. [laughter] with the war to end all wars. Can you imagine . One hundred years later a politician calling a war to end all wars . Nobody would buy that what was happening today 100 years ago when the war had not quite started everybody was mobilizing but nobody had a clue what would happen so i am looking forward to these gentlemen to give us insight the firstever like to introduce his first visit to freedom fest of professor at the university of texas in austin and holds this senior chair in history he is written out several books also tom palmer at freedom fest he works for the Atlas Network said beside him we have john of lee involved with a conservative how many have the of debt your american conservative magazine in the package . We have john browns Senior Market strategist with euro pacific now most of you have seen him on tv. He has a long history with politics and so i am looking forward to his discussion in today and he was born nearest to the town of of world war when we will let him go first. Each of you have to amend its that will give us to an extra and i will time you may be we will talk to nine per questions could you want to ask, up to the front. Would you like to start to tell us about the war to end all wars . Thank you for giving the that position and adulated served to engage the germans of the british and french and preteens ladies and gentlemen. In a glint pretty much worldwide that was the first row of war but because of the shocking evidence it was turned the war to end all wars but then it grew in by mismanaging the peace it heralded the Second World War with a huge arms race and heralded one century increasingly lethal violence. And a very great change to write this book i studied the war in some detail now with the attempt to share with you some of my findings regarding the huge changes that have occurred i am leaving the of lessons but basically the changes that i have divided into three areas. Politically one saw that age of empire chance virgin to selfdetermination and nationalism. It approved also that in the long Term Economic power is superior to military power and a costly lesson the First World War was the first to involve the raising of funds by the introduction of said dreaded word income tax now the social changes basically was the first war war, the first real war to involve citizens at large rather than just our mes. Is seized in britain at least the extremely rich upperclass replaced by a fairly rich middle class. Prescription began that was the big change women entering the work force was the big thing socially and of course, this heralded with the vote first in england than the United States america is way ahead of britain with pecan marriage was so dreadful on the first day alone the battle that lasted five months the british lost 20,000 dead on the first day and 40,000 lou didnt we did. 60 then all went in were killed and looking at some of these were there are roughly 12,000 graves but the shocking piece 8,400 of those graves are unidentified blown to bits in the nomans land by rats or cats just dying and akkadian doll identity was lost it left a tremendous awareness of casualties to affect the tactics and strategies ever since no longer carries rose soldiers into battle there was a social cost and support for the war and casualtys then the military changes the importance of trench warfare with those two areas of mobile war the beginning and then to have the worst casualty rates therefore we see the introduction to double the of battlefield between the infantry and the taking and the camouflage introduction and also the french use gas for the first time, a teargas saids l y4a germans use the first poison gas in the war then we saw the introduction of barbed wire and the recognition of the beginnings of the effects of the shell shock in the long drawnout recognition in the face of the enemy now with posttraumatic stress and the propeller that allowed the machine guns allowed the original which are identified in my book air latitude fire through the up propeller in the introduction of bombers on civilian populations and the introduction of the airforce as the separate arm of the armed forces which was a very interesting introduction and now a recognition of the sky as a vital area of for now extended into space as vital to control a huge interest the navy the importance of submarines and heavy armor on the ships because the shells went straight through the wooden deck with that squadron with the battle. Also showing that the enormous effectiveness of blockades not just for luxury items but vital and germany enter the war starving. Of with the interesting interlude that released 2 million german soldiers to push us into the ocean on the west because he was getting 52 mae brought 500,000 soldiers across with the german offensive breaking through the alliedlyons they were stopped by the french food and wine. Because the moment they broke through the front line they entered the villages and farmland and whole divisions were brought to waltz because the men could not get up off the ground there were plastered with alcohol and they could not move so they had a chance to reestablish of life so in the First World War it was stopped by a french food and wine. [laughter] [applause] that is interesting the next time i go to france i will remember that. [laughter] i appreciate that summary of the changes world war i brought. I had been teaching history for 35 years the more i teased the more i am convinced the basic questions are simple and very profound and one of the abiding questions typos to my a students is the very basic question is why wars ocher. Why is there more . This is a fitting moment because if i had asked the questions when hendrick years ago today june june 151914, then the obvious answer would have been war is when it thinks go wrong because if you look at the history of civilization for the previous century would have noted that peace is the norm and there had hardly been a decent sized war and the western world. The crimean war but the American Civil War was the biggest thing around except for those too large wars the nations figured out how to resolve their issues and conflicts peacefully. Then rolled war one broker alrich shad air that expectation followed by a report to which seem to suggest peace was not the norm but war was the norm so by 1945 after having experienced world war i and rolled toward to when weld pulled for three breakout . Says the cold war developed and allies squared off their money number of moments that this is it than people expected and planned for it. That was 1945 now 80 years later eyehole and world war iii has not occurred. I have to say yet. Of fundamental question for historians is why is this so . Because we had developed Nuclear Weapons of mass destruction it has raised the cost to such an extent space and leader was the gist country to war but it is worth noting that wars have begun by peoples whose sanity could be called into question so there has not been a big war since report tussaud it starts to look as though that long century of peace maybe that was the norm the two world wars were the exception and to now we have gone a better part of a century but if peace is the norm that all they have to do is avoid screwy things up or make the mistakes that led to world war i. But if peace is the exception anwr is the norm said world war iii is out there waiting to happen and this cannot be answered until after the fact that i will try to draw to lessons from world war i and they apply to the United States than to the world at large. The first lesson is capitalism cannot save the world or in hasnt or slightly differently, a man does not live by bread alone. But my point is plenty of people look at it 19 tanner 1913 who said the war between advanced nations has become impossible because each of those stations of the west are the others best customers and there are too much lost you will know the era before parole for one is considered the first great age of globalization and the World Economy was so intertwined it would be sheer folly for germany to attack pressure are the United States to go to war the reach the other is best customers and what nation would commit such absurdity . Capitalism cannot save the world but neither can socialism the era before world war i it was also the age of the Great Expectations of socialism and various socialist communities are geared there would never be a war among the nations because even though the capitalist imperial leader government the workers feeling greater solidarity along class lines rather than nation to nation would never go to war. The leaders might say go to war but they never really lets us but you go to war of the workingclass but they would reject that call because their consciousness was raised by socialist activities. That blew up during the summer of 1914 when it became clear that despite the commercial and Financial Connections they went to war nonetheless despite the solidary along class lines workers and france decided their interests lay with the capitalist now with the workers of germinate and all down the line. There were expectations utterly shattered and one of them was the idea economics trumps politics it did not at the beginning of the war. The second bus and that has policies connotations for today is that empires grow brittle with age. And here i will include the United States not back them but now. We could debate the terminology but great powers need to learn to accommodate rising powers at a very basic level the cause of the First World War was the inability of the existing status quo to a acknowledge that germany was now a great power and to find room for germany at the table and is france and britain and russia felt threatened to and with their earthier they refuse to give germany what it needed to prevent the germans for feeling theyre not part of the system. The result was the First World War the second result was the Second World War. What it does this mean for today . The rising power today is china and it will seek tough Foreign Policy commensurate with its wealth. John browne suggested economic strops the military and it does eventually i would put it even firmer if there is one iron lot of international affairs, it is this, that sooner or later every country gets the Foreign Policy it can afford. We had one that was modest compared to the economic power through the 20th century but eventually developing a Foreign Policy to protect economic interests and china had a modest Foreign Policy already starting to assert itself and it will continue to do this. Whether the chinese are justified or not is beside the point of germany was justified to carve out a place with the imperial throne in the first decade and a half is beside the point. It will happen in. The status quo will have to figure out a way to accommodate china. Happen either peacefully or by war. I will leave it at that. [applause] i was not given the First World War but my of gold was as the british officer he was gassed and died when he was 48 that we all know the disaster of the war but the greatest the solid discredited western civilization coming out of the First World War one of the statements is you cannot make an omelet without breaking a sweat that massive killing was partly the discredit of western civilization and other system would work better if it was justified its 20 of all british officers were killed 12 percent of the soldiers at of every 20 englishmen at the end the three were dead and five were wounded. The devastation cannot be measured by had the opportunity in the crimea i went to the battle site i always wanted to see the charge of the brigade i saw the valley brett have been to end the british were still wearing bright red not the generals fight the last war but from 75 years from the year before actually they started with the tactics of the first british battle plan for the infantry to clear out the machine guns and barbwire to have the of a cavalry charge theyre all cavalry officers and they wanted to do that even the germans had the calvary troops in the back. I am as written about that with an article on the internet also americas way of war and i think of the lessons to learn is that there is never a short war israeli Prime Minister was supposed to the first attack 21 years ago and said you never know when a war starts where it will end that is the first rule. The second was the disaster of American Intervention we go into the war like a Football Game that we seldom have plans what to do when we delivered to europe and manchuria to the communist. Tom paine had one of his writings stuck in my mind whether what worser started to raise taxes or taxes are raised to start wars because they go so close to get there but you never know. With the internet americas way of war but the great generals with without going to war it is a last option because you never know when you start where it tends. Be careful of your generals the gross incompetence sending their young men into a machine gun fire over and over again. Another point to bring up to date is watch out for your allies. This started because of serbia killing the archduke with these vast empires in europe think of thats whatever small allies with nato guaranteeing up borders all over the place but fate of taiwan, israel, japan now we were about to have a military confrontation because of deserted islands in the Pacific Ocean because we guarantee japan . Any of these countries could put us into a major war that could escalate into a nuclear war you the allies that help you not dry q. Another lesson perhaps is today we have the experts on fourth degeneration warfare and today his point is when we win like libya what we crea