Transcripts For CSPAN2 The Long Game 20161106 : vimarsana.co

And then well had q a. You will look all look very smart. Im sure you all have a lot to say. ÷÷÷÷÷÷ and most recently at the u. S. Secretary of defense he is currently a council and senior advisor. On a regular contributed to defense one. The previous books include america between the more. He lives in washington dc with his family. Lets give him a round of applause. How did you end up in dc. All with all of these important meetings. And the situation room. That you talk about. Give us the cliff notes version. I really want to thank everyone for being here this afternoon. And braving the rain. Working in washington dc for over 20 years im from lincoln nebraska my first like many is probably college football. And worked in and out of government for 20 years. Its a very typical dc career. And then eight years ago exactly to this day i joined the obama obama biden transition team. Working with their teams as they transitioned into the government. Taken over from the bush administration. Working with secretary clinton did in the white house. In terms of how i got in the room where it happens i ask myself that question oftentimes. But i what i wanted to try to do with this book is not right about my experience. I try to buck the trend. There is usually one of two kinds of books. Its a kind of book that places the author at the center of every pivotal event that occurred while they were in government. Also the kind of book that says all of their former colleagues screwed everything up and if theyve only listen to the author than everything would be great. Some of them try to do both at the same time. I try to defy that in this book. It draws on my experiences serving as a state department. As i think about obamas Foreign Policy in the americas role in the world. In the debate weve been having. In a challenging question that we have before us on military intervention u. S. Leadership. It draws on my experiences but its not about that. This is a book that tries not to just of defendant president obama the Foreign Policy legacy as we will reflect upon starting early next year. In the years ahead will be seen as a positive legacy for the United States in the world. Thats why i call it the long game. I believe it will be remembered as a very consequential president for the better. And i build that case by drawing on many of my experiences in government. Why not you remind us what the foreignpolicy situation was like obama enters office in january of 2009. I am struck in our current political debate how there is a healthy degree of amnesia about the state of the nine states if we were sitting here eight years ago. We would be talked about a hundred thousand americans easing their losing their jobs every month. Unemployment above 10 look at america and the world where at the november 2008 we have a hundreds of the 5,000 troops deployed abroad in combat in wars that were not going well into many corners of the world including among many of our closest partners in the United States was identified now with hope and opportunity but torture and guantanamo bay. There was a quite serious deficit that we were in. On one of the first orders of business for president obama was to arrest the decline that we were in and put us in a better position to lead the world and also to help solve problems around the world. When it was in our interest to do so. You have a fastening sentence that the typical american doesnt understand how complex foreignpolicy is. I think it is hard for anyone whos not in the mix to understand the complexity of it. I thing its one of the most humbling things for any of us who serve in government particularly if we come from the outside and we enter government with all sorts of grand ideas about how things should work and then once you get into the middle of it and you see how difficult everything is i think that is what i wanted to try to do in this book. Not try to make excuses for tough choices. But to try to give a better explanation for those of you interested in these issues on how we got to where we are today. Were able to look at a particular issue in isolation as though there was nothing else happening whether thats happening in syria or libya or china. The challenge for a president and those who are advising the president. To have an overall strategy not just to worry about how we fix uplift particular problem. When it fits with what our goals are also around the world. He is playing a long game. He often talks about decisions to turning an aircraft carrier. We have to do to set a new course is to do great turns which means over a Long Distance or overtime nothing to be quite a shift. It often demands for much starker more severe term. It might be something that could capsize the ship. I think obama has the long game strategy and has tried to put america on the course for leadership over time not just today which i think is markedly improved today but also in the years and decades to come. Eastman a specific and amount of time. With them particularly in egypt. An invasion of ukraine and also iran. This is some complex stuff. Its like sitting down and playing a game of war. Which do you think in many ways gave obama the most headache. Whether it is what is happening in libya or serious today. The iran nuclear threat. These head been the most time consuming and the most challenging issues that president obama and his team had faced. I think of those issues looking back the crucible in many ways will be syria. Because of the dramatic tragedy that is occurring every day in syria. The mass migration that has been sparked. The way the conflict is in many ways what were seen in the world. Thats not to say that theres a bunch of easy answers that the president and those of us who are advising that we decide not to take the easy way out. Just like a dr. Sometimes need to deal with the disease that theres no single cure for. On the best the dr. Can do is mitigate and buy time into try to extend the life of the patient its applicable to Foreign Policy foreignpolicy as well. There are problems that defy easy solutions. They have that. Its not doing something or doing nothing if the in between. Weve seen things that we can bring to try to affect an outcome but its all been very difficult. In the book you talk about obama was big on that. He encouraged it that is not do this or do that. Its about finding some kind of compromise in the middle. You also point out that obamas critics call and say it makes the u. S. Look weak in the eyes of the world. It is a bit of a paradox. Youve one side of the debate that you been hearing a lot about that says hes weak he doesnt believe that america is a great country he doesnt like to use military force but that then on the other side of the debate you hear obama is not that he uses it to a little. He uses it too much. An unprecedented and counterterror campaign using tools like the remotely piloted aircraft. In our debates it likens to look at things like either or. Hes the in between. I actually think its a more subtle complex conception of what leadership is. Is more fitting for plane a long game. Then the black or white solutions. Once you ill be glad when its over. I cant wait until tuesday night. What advice would you say. If hillary is elected what her foreignpolicy approach will be. Despite what trump says publicly in reality if you selected what do you think his Foreign Policy course will be. With clinton. I have the opportunity to work with her for two years very closely and of course one i was at the white house and she was still the secretary for two years. A lot of interaction with her. She was at terrific secretary a terrific secretary of state. I think it gets lost in the debate she ran the department very well. She was a rock star around the world. I think again. Take ourselves back to eight years ago. Its a price everyone. They were predicting that it was can be atrophied tricky relationship. To me the most remarkable thing of their partnership was how will it worked. Whether it is Climate Change the effort to rebalance america and if attention. She was a co architect of many of those policies. There is no greater statement of the closeness of the relationship than what you see tomorrow. Where her closing rally will be she and her husband together at a rally in philadelphia. President obama has been campaigning his heart out because he understands the stakes in the election. He understands and what is to come. Although she has articulated some honest policy differences on certain issues and trade on situation in syria. I think this story is for the large continuity. With trump you dont need me to tell you it would probably be the greatest disaster in american Foreign Policy in modern memory. Its one of the reasons why youve seen most of the foreignpolicy establishment the community all either saying theyre not for traversing or even republicans saying theyre going to vote for secretary clinton. I spent a lot of my time around the world especially europe. They feel like the stakes for themselves are as high as for any american. I was in the baltics last weekend. And they see their future directly related to the decision to bring in a make tuesday they have a very different relationship with russia. It is a very scary prospect for our friends and partners around the world. [inaudible] [inaudible] on obamas decision on syria is it not strong or did it not become strong. The delay caused it you have it with a comment on that. I had two chapters of the book that deal with the Syrian Crisis in different dimensions. ÷÷÷÷ he gets into the detail of the episodes when syria and they used chemical weapons in the United States prepared for a military response to the use. I was at the pentagon at the time. I was part of the Group Planning and advocating for the use of force we decided to go to congress to gets congressional operation. I was one of those folks that spent a lot of time with members of a congress trying to advocate. We were met with a lot of skepticism about the wisdom of whether we should use of force in syria. He ended up achieving number design but something that was very improvisational and made us all safer. It was the peaceful removal of 1300 tons. I exploit dash i explore this. To deal with weapons of mass distraction that turned destruction that turned out not to exist. Were still dealing with the consequences of that decision. In syria we did not use force and we ended up dealing with the mass destruction threat. It was as much as ten times greater in what they thought that was a mistake. I tried to dive into that puzzle. I get into that. That is separate. It is separate from the fundamental drivers of the Syrian Civil War on what the nine states United States could have done differently in the years 2012 particularly when it comes to the use of military force to affect the outcome in syria. And this is the explanation part of the book. We considered a lot of options. That was my job when i was at the pentagon. To influence outcome. There was a lot they can do but they opened up a lot of questions about where this would lead to what sort of future it would be for american policy. We were very mindful of the lessons of iraq. It was a war that president obama we were involved in that war in 2011. We decided after 2011 for the United States not to be a central player in the post libya. And we see where that is today. Those lessons were very much in our minds when we are considering about what to do about syria. I dont think anyone involved in the making of the u. S. Policy is satisfied with where things are. But we also are greatly humbled by the limits of what the United States can actually do about this problem. ÷÷÷÷ do you think it was dishonest of obama to use to use the ms from 2001 for the authorization of syria with the yemeni situation. I dont think it was dishonest and i think the president has been very eloquent on this himself. We need it. It was what Congress Passed in the two weeks or so after the 911 attacks. It has been the operative legal operation. For the activities in many parts of the world. But principally the middle east. And that is the current domestic Legal Authority that the United States is using for our counter iso campaign. Recall about two years ago the administration offered a new authorization to the congress and said lets retire this authorization must pass a new law to give us new authorities to persecute the campaign and congress unfortunately like on sony other things has failed to pass that new law. Despite the administration asking them to. It will be the first order of business for the next president however she is going to be. [applause]. I will throw out two topics and let you choose. One is compare clinton in character. On the other is blues allen. The contractor and the massive security breaches. I will take the clinton in cary. They outsource their different source. In the United States that is engaged in the world that is out there leading and trying to bring countries together to solve problems and believes that it is not just defense but what we call the three ds. That we need to use the full toolbox of American Power to try to affect outcomes and both of them have shown that they are willing to throw long passes its a vigorous example that i believe is the right style of leadership and i would expect the next secretary of state will carry that forward. I like to reflection back in 2008 to see how much progress we have made. But one of the things that is disappointing to me is the lack of strategy on drones which i thought at the time was another huge issue and im a little bit disappointed that i dont think theres been any former policy on the use of drones which i think such a terrible precedent for the future so my question is this. Do you know that there has been any discussion about why or why not that was happening and i would like your opinion is its as big of issue as it might be to you or do you think its a relatively minor issue the use of drones and how they could be used in the future. It is an example of the tool of American Power that has advanced in terms of the technology and the ability to be more precise that is only going to continue to advance overtime. And also the nine states is United States is not the only player in this. We will have more and more companies be able to pilot that. This is been an issue that has been on president obamas mind thinking through his successor and the rules that that person will operate under for the use of this particular tool. He has actually done more than any other president laid out and tried to be transparent as possible. For the use of drones around the world. He talked openly about the use of drones this was after i left government. The white house has released several documents documenting the times in which they were used outside of combat theaters then also declassified the rulebook that this administration uses for conducting those kinds of operations. I think its very important to have that transparency because you all need to be part of this discussion. In order for this to be sustainable over time the American People need to be bought and to why we are doing it and understand the best they can white they use this tool and also we need the role world to buy into this because were not the only actor here we want to have some standard that is set and they acquire this kind of capability they are held up to the same standards that we hold ourselves up to. If secretary clinton wins the election do you think there is a list of names who might come into a defense. I stay out of the name game. Its kind of a cottage industry. All i can say based on my past experience in 2008 if we were having this conversation like anyone in this world. The way of saying dont believe it until you see it. Im wondering if obama and the connection to kenya plays much role in terms of foreign dash the Foreign Policy. I dont cover that in my book but there had been others who have talked about that since as he grew up obviously spent formative part of his life in indonesia but he also grew up in hawaii. The longest time he ended up living in the continental United States was when states was when he went to college. He has a view of being an american from looking from the outside in this is way beyond the scope of my book. I cant help but think that perception and not just the United States in american looking at the u. S. From the outside. It has to inform his thinking. I think thats one of the reasons if im right about that my he has made some Foreign Policy decisions that i think are ones that the world has actually liked. He has in his mind. Does anybody ever consists dash confuse you with ed snowden. Thats a first. I have a broader question that deals with this regime change. Sometimes they say it seems like my problem with the Foreign Policy is theyve been overthrowing secular nationalist regimes in the middle east and those regimes were oppressive but they were oppressed also with the jihadist movements. We support the overthrow of government. So obviously there with the bombing and supporting the overthrow there. And then also in syria they supported the insurgents which included isis. So, is there any planning post overthrow. This can be replacing them. A couple of comments on that. When you look at what is happened in the middle east over the last several years what youre seeing is indigent as to whats going on in that region. Its not the United States going to impose its will on the people of the middle east. The challenge we have when the arab spring was still considered a spring when it was seen as hopeful was how we adjusted in reacted to what was happening on the ground in those countries. When the people of egypt crowded the square to call for their overthrow of their government. Or when they rose up in benghazi libya and were calling for recline for democratic change. In their peaceful protests were about to be put down by the government when Peaceful Protesters took to the streets in 2011 and 2012. And as they began the brutal crackdown others protest. And oftentimes here in the United States and in the region there is an over interpretation of how much we the United States is actually driving a lot of this. Its not to say we dont have any tools at our disposal but it means that oftentimes whats happening is indigenous to those places in the question for us is how we respond to appeared how we try to shape in a way. When it comes to the post conflict reconstruction. Is what we spent a lot of time in government. We have learned a lot of hard lessons over the last 15 years. When the actually occupied two countries. We seen how difficult that can be. The kinds of reform in the development needs. The good news is theres been a lot of for extended to try to get better at this. That is what is foremost on the leaders mind when it comes to thinking about post a sound syria. We should just go in there. We can do it. If theres one thing they have shown it can take down governments. The problem is what comes next. Who is on the hook for that. I think it explains to me what many perceive as a very deliberate way that weve gone about trying to handle some of these crisis. With time for a couple more questions. Do you think were able to have any meaningful influence great question. A great boss of mine. Has a sane that we cant want peace more than the parties themselves. That we have a huge role to play in secretary carey and clinton tried very hard to play that role to bring the parties together and find ways that we can and will be of the parties themselves that are going to need to want that solution. Can you talk a little bit more about how you think the legacy will be viewed. Great question. One of the reasons why i wrote the book was not just to put myself into a therapy and work out what i experienced in government but also to try to explain to you all what happened. As an early attempt to think about president obama historically. As youre sitting on the stage. About the legacy. One of the ways you can evaluate that legacy. If you compare him to other president s. Its interesting where to start. Its where obama compared himself to on Foreign Policy. The two president s he compares himself to our george hw bush. Its interesting. A political comment. I cant think of any National Republican leaders today who want a foreignpolicy like that. With a democratic president those are the two guys that he mentioned. When you look back on those two president s its very striking in the parallels between their foreignpolicy leadership to eisenhowers address. The theme of the address was balanced trying to have balance in your foreignpolicy. Balance in the tools that youre using. Is not just all about military force. Involvement and economic tools. Balance has been a big thing for president obama as well. In the way that he goes about conducting foreignpolicy. You look at george hw bush. And of course we remember him now as a very good foreignpolicy president who presided under historic. But at the time when he left office in 1992 he was criticized for not intervening enough in places. He was criticized for leaving who dumps the same in power. And for being humbled in ways that the u. S. Should project its power around the world. Those are traits in our political debate which wants to head leaders dos things that are really decisive hits the idea of strength which is the macho idea of what it means to be strong. You dont get credit in the moment. We think of them is really good president s. I think thats over to think were to be see president obama in the years to come. Thank you for your time. Lets give our author a hand. We will be signing books somewhere. Thank you everybody. ÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷÷ that wraps up the live coverage of the texas festival. You make your watching book tv on cspan two. Top nonfiction books and authors every weekend. Television for serious readers. One of the largest museums in the country with a collection of close to 300 aircraft. It was here that we interviewed leo barron on his book patent in the battle of the bulge. It was hugely important in world war ii. It was the last gasp on the western front. It was the last chance in trying to change the course of the war the russians were knocking on the door to germany the americans and britons were coming up. And of course they were coming in from the west. They were looking at the strategic situation and realized that he have to change the equation and being the gambler that he was decided to go and launch this huge counteroffensive. That was why he did it. He launched this huge counter offensive. An operational level of surprise. In his overall goal was to get to the city of antwerp. In the and the allies got most of their supplies through the port if he could capture that port. It would upset the alley timetable. What he was hoping for was while the western allies were reorganizing themselves he could then swing his attention towards the russian coming in from the east. And thats why the battle of the bulge was so important. It was his last chance to kind of change the course of the war. I think we really had to start back all the way to june the sixth. At that point. We really only had two major fronts. They come in from eastern europe. And then you head at the americans and the brits coming up through italy. And as you know there was a lot of ground that the russians have to take to get to the heart of germany. The commanders mainly in the west they said the easiest way to get to germany is through northwest france. Is the shortest distance. They decided to land on june 6, 1944. They land for about a month. They are able to keep them kind of lodged up there in northwest europe but then towards the end of july beginning of august. The breakthrough it becomes a race all the back to the german border. Patent kind of leads the way. He made a huge name for himself. They push it all the way back to the german border. The lines stabilize in september of 1944. The allies have outgrown their supply lines basically. They were literally running out of gas. Thats why it was so important. They need to open and that so they would have shorter supply lines. It was actually pretty famous by that point. Kind of going back in his history they went to west point. They graduated from west point. Was one of the few tank commanders in the first world war. And in between the worst they slowly achieved the rank. And moved up in the rank structure. He have already kind of made a name for himself as being a good guy when he came to understanding tank warfare. The germans thought the americans were to land. He was the fake commander and first u. S. Army group. When he finally got to the continent it was the u. S. Third army. He took off like a rocket. After the allies broke through. The german were done in normandy. They completely kept the germans off balance. If it wasnt for the fact that he read out of gas which is literally what happened. He probably would have raced all the way to berlin. He was moving that fast. He cut them completely off balance. And when you read the german plans for the defensive patent was very much on their mind. Thats great. You have a great plan. What is patent to do. The guy that was in charge of the army which was general brandenberger it was his job to contain paned and he was like youre not giving me enough stuff to be able to contain this guy. We already know he is probably one of the most. He was already kind of in their minds. When they kicked off. He was actually to the south of the german offensive. But because the germans did actually penetrate the allied lines there were can have them drive their army to the south into cut the bolts in half. You are facing east you have all these men several core divisions we need you to turn them 90 degrees and have north. It wouldve been difficult for most generals and even more difficult because it was onthefly. And by the way the weather was terrible. Your bad roads heavy snow patent of course told eisenhower i can do it and i can do in 48 hours. A lot of the guys in the meeting room one of them said dont be silly. It sounds like i can do it. Im can focus on the town. At this point they were going to be surrounded. They all recognized that it was the key. It was a major road network. In order for the germans to succeed in making their advance all the way to the river and then onto antwerp they needed to have bastogne. It was terrible terrain everything had to be on the road. Anything in place for you the town became very important. To kind of give it a historical comparison it was a lot like gettysburg. Having all of these roads they have the same level of importance. The focus became your an your gonna turn your army around and we want you to basically get to their and leave the hundred and first. I was a they will defend the city. Thats how patent became involved. He turned his army 90 degrees headed north and true to his word he kicked off his counterattack in 48 hours. He breaks through the german Court Ordered it was kind of seen as the turning point in the battle of the bulge. Because that pretty much cut into the german forces. It was for another three or four weeks. And then after that patton says ive done this. We had reestablished. Weve gone back to the german border. And in march he bounces of the rhine. That was the the term you used. They had reached it. It was a pretty significant obstacle. It was very wide. It is seen for the germans as our last line of defense in the west. In so they know that they were gonna fight hard for it. There was all of these preparations to get across the rhine. They have operation diversity going. There was a lot of preparation. And then all the sudden the germans forget to blow that. The night armor division. It was actually a movie about it. Patent, sees whats going on. The germans are already on the back foot because of this. One day they decide organ across the rhine. He gets across the ride. In the southern part of germany. And of course now we are there. Its a race across germany. Once they get across. If you look at the history of the u. S. Army its about a long and illustrious history. The worst month of casualties and sound was basically december and january of 1944 the American Army suffered hundred 44,000 casualties. A lot of that is killed in action. A lot of it is wounded. There was all kinds of fighting going on. Youre talking about an 80mile front worth of combat. You can pretty much walk the whole battlefield on foot in one day. It would take several days if youre walking. It was a month long. Its generally seen as going from december 16 to mid january. Youre not talking about one or two days. July 1, 2nd and 3rd. June 6 is dday. One day. Pearl harbor one day. Its a great book. Thats like 600 pages. Is not something you can just pick up. It is run one weekend. Its a kind of intimidation from any potential reader. It is a huge battle. Its kind of hard to take it all in. When i do talk to the veterans. In some cases you able to say hey im a veteran as well it does a grease the wheels a little bit and get some to open up a little bit more. And you have the ability to connect with them on a couple of levels. When i would talk to these guys. They would say you have it worse. You are in the desert. You guys were fighting the germany german army. They were always very humble. Great stories but i think having that perspective i kind of give me a little bit of an end. I get some of it. It was great talking to these veterans