Transcripts For DW To 20240704 : vimarsana.com

West. The welcome to to the point. It is a pleasure to greet our guest, sabina as the reports for the german broadcaster, deutschland folk. Shes an Eastern Europe expert and has just published a book on what will become of russia. Its also a pleasure to welcome raphael, los, hes a policy fellow at the European Council on foreign relations. His work focuses on security and defense in the euro, atlantic area, and my esteemed colleague roman gunter, and co also joins us. Hes a news editor on t ws, europe and russia, desk, and frequently reports from and on ukraine. So id like to start out by asking all of you to share your assessment of the situation in ukraine 2 years after russia launched the attack roman. Whats the perspective in ukraine at this moment as well . The situation is very, very critical. I would say we cannot say often enough. So a people were not expecting in ukraine. The west, especially the United States, will just stop supplying weapons. In particular, i see a lot of shelves which are very important and this will adjust that this moment um they will, they will probably expecting this to happen after the president ial elections in United States. So they are not prepared for this. And europe, the European Union is not fulfilling on its promise to deliver 1000000 up to the shelves to ukraine by march. So those 2 developments are very, very dangerous and we see the results. The results. Are you grand losing territory again . And exactly, i wanted to ask you about that. The town of, of disco. So it just in the past weeks and that had been very important for ukraine. Ukraine held it for 10 years following russians, evasion of on boss in 2014. Whats that done tomorrow in ukraine as well . Um, of course is a hard blow for your grand because as youve just mentioned of div, which is a small town very close to the nascar. Now what was the statistic point of ukrainians have built very, very sophisticated facilities the and were able to hold it for, for any other 10 years. Things 2014, when the russian under covered invasion, invasion started in dont boss. But the ukrainians were just out numbered and out. Gun today are enough to youve got and they losing that strategic strategic town. Ukraine now lose is the opportunity to advance further and it opens up to them maybe to, to direction advance. Felt that some of the to the west, and its a good question. No, we dont know the answer yet. How good are the pregnancy buchanan defense facilities behind of the youve got because the impression is, and this is also something that people in ukraine discussed or are discussing. Now, if your brain had enough time to build facilities, the 2nd of the 3rd line of defense behind of the car, because the opinion presents savanski has only ordered 2 to dig in, as he said. And to build a new concrete facilities in awesome. So somebody that let me come to you, i know youve just come back from a key of youre also an expert on russia. So share your perspective if you would, on both sides. And particularly with regard to russia, its mobilizing fresh troops, its manufacturing new weapons. Its pushing now on multiple fronts. Is it more resilient than many of us had thought . Uh, it seems to be bought. Uh the last us in us do you have car also very high. Uh, what do you heard um, 16000 soldiers on that. And uh, one guy, so quote, military broke on a road about this and suddenly he died into the 2nd. And this was in a week. And obviously its not a fact which places depending and, and president put in that somebody is so open a speak. So open the about losses about numbers, but on the other hand, i, i would say of to youve got, its very serious. Thats right. Its a dollars. But theyre on success as well for Ukrainian Military for the army, especially when it comes to crimea. When you look at the sol called a fleet to of a restaurant in a sea of us to poor, for example, the most is also very high. They lost a tour of the whole fleet and that means that the ukrainians, its more in a shy the will on the sides, but we shouldnt forget the crime. Yeah. Is the starting point of very, very of, of, of a lot of attacks of ukraine cities and in these over the whole country roughly. Oh, during last years grinding war of attrition, a word we were using a lot not on here on this program but elsewhere was stalemate. Is it one still or are things now tilting in russias favor . I think changes are happening on the ground of being allah pointed to the situation in the black sea, the Russian Black Sea feet being largely decimated and unable to you know, threaten ukraines going next board. So thats a, for example, if things are happening in the air as well, we see a precarious situation for you cleaning out for us to f. 16 deliveries from the west should happen soon, but these things sort of happened early as well. Were seeing intense efforts, bye ukraines wisdom support us to get more at defense of missiles to ukraine, to protect cities, but also to protect the troops on the front lines. Just the fact that we dont see changes and the sort of line of contact between the 2 ground for us. This doesnt mean that we do have a stand made at the strategic level. And both sides, i think, are working hard to identify ways to get out of this. They are made on the ground and to exploit opportunities as they arise out of technology increased more likely to be to take the advantage. To a large extent, i think that depends on the west on us, on decisions that we make in the coming days and weeks and months. Weve seen now a couple of the western countries signing a Security Agreement with ukraine out of that could emerge and new momentum for a defense deliveries to ukraine. But its a political decision ultimately. And the fact that in germany and the bonus tag, just this moment, were still wrangling around the question of whether or not to deliver taurus, cruise missiles, for example, is one that is extremely frustrating, not only from an analytical perspective, but shortly, also for ukrainians on the ground on the frontline. Lets drill a little bit deeper now on what the defeat at of these con tells us about the larger picture weve been calling it a pivotal battle for months here on to the point. And as weve heard it has fallen. What does that tell us about ukraines situation . Exactly 2 years after proteins launched his attack as the last images of ukrainian soldiers, enough deeds costs, at least for now, they had to abandon it to avoid being surrounded by Russian Troops. For russia, the capture of the almost entirely destroyed town is an important symbol. It represents its greatest military success in almost one year. The last was when the ukrainian city of buck mood fell. The decisive factor here, russian air superiority, plus a large contingent of tanks, artillery and soldiers. Beautiful, this is an obvious success. I congratulate you. It must continue to the right side of concentrated or it is now an extremely difficult situation at several parts of the front line. Exactly where Russian Troops had concentrated maximum reserve. If they were taking advantage of delays and aid to you cream. And this is a very sensitive matter. There are tillery shortages, there is a need for front line air defense and for a longer range of our weapons and offers boy instead of a 1000000 artillery shells. So landscapes troops will initially only receive around half from e u countries, and in the us, republicans are blocking urgently needed funds. After the fall above discard, the president visited the front near the strategically important city of coupons. There could soon be another russian breakthrough here. 2 years after russias invasion, how long can you crane hold out . And let me put that question directly to roman or so the answer is simple. As long as you can can hold out for a long time, but the west must deliver at the moment to the west is not getting enough weapons until the ukrainians have to retreat. If this tendency wouldnt, will not change in the coming weeks and months, then we can expect more traits from ukrainian trope. So you kind of just throw in more and more. So well just, ukraine doesnt have enough. Some just, this is a huge problem. The as ation a new bill is now a new grain empowerment, the but the presence of lensky is very cautious. And with that, because more than ukraine is also slightly changing. But there, im not enough. And so um it is a very tense situation for ukrainians, but to answer your question once again and its its, its for the west to delete what happens without the less than the punch requirement. You can will not be able to whole tell the story. Raphael, you mentioned, of course, the same point in the report that we just saw. A president soleski russo landscape refers directly to, to ukraines need for front line air defenses. And indeed, to the russians took of, theyve got not least because they had the aerial advantage. Where are those gonna come from who, who are the key partners who could provide what your credit needs . Right. No, that is a good question. And there defends, i think from your draft that of consist of, of 2 parts. One is ground based there, defends and we see some capabilities having been supplied to you cry and be trained also primarily im task was protecting civilian infrastructure and population centers. What your credit is lacking as mobile ad defends on the front lines and then its uh, you know, get parts to dump sort of anti aircraft tanks that are very effective that were provided by germany early on in the war. But theyre too few one number and the 2nd leg of your credit defense will be the 16 that us with and allowing new claims s last to replace the losses and make a cross that they were using since the war began. But it is not at the scale or at the speed of relevance to the degree that ukraines air force. Youd be able to push back russias f was from using these kinds of fly bombs that happened pummeling of this gun and other places on the front line. What is required is a more modern version of this, and the more im sustained effort at an increasing the scale of west and support and, and the out of funds where im both on the ground but also in the air. So the western support at the moment is not increasing, so be now it is decreasing or at least suspended, particularly in the us president. So landscape fluid in germany recently to make his case. And in fact, germany has now become the 2nd biggest donor of military 8 and as a major donor of humanitarian aid as well can germany make up for the gaps that the u. S. Is leaving currently . Oh, i think its difficult to, but what in difference between the beginning of the war and now is that the will to feel at least a pop the of this gap. And what i saw when i was in key if was how frightening it this, when you know that the systems on to able to shut down or drones or rockets and to sit in the cellar and to wait and not a to know. But uh, its over or not, and this interrupt every day and several times. And this was really in the capital of the queen and then the other cities, of course, the, the very, very, a feeling of war. The war isnt over what, what some might think. And in europe, in germany, smell, we are in the middle of this war and to this war has at least sweet benefits. And one better for you to put foot. So cold is valid as a field, the constancy liverts in, in different cities which disrupt the everyday life. Very much of people and that we have to consider. And when we count on give a good numbers, how many rockets or bones are shut down or bad or shut down . This is really frightening because if he goes off fuel and fewer and this speaks of the lack of munition and this is really serious. Let me ask you briefly if you would, you said, certainly germany has heard the call. Interestingly enough, a recent survey shows that german Public Opinion is changing. For a long time, there was a lag between what the leadership wanted to do or lack schultz with his famous speech that site vendor right after the russian invasion. Where said, we have to step up, Public Opinion long lagging behind, but it now looks to be that the majority of german say, the situation is serious. We must act. This is essentially a wake up call. Well that change how rapidly the government response. And i think this is really a move we see, and this is very important because its of the hesitation of the government, of the leaders of different parties in the core. Initially, they responded every time on a certain pacific, a pet sophistic knew it was in the members. And now i would say it isnt over, but its not as strong as a to used to be. And now the government isnt it for you. Then if it has been bought, be you are in the middle of all the and just as a beginning of the discussion uh, as to spend money for uh for veterans for your painful own purpose or for social needs. And, and coming with this uh to, to discuss the question whether its necessary to think about the draft uh to, to uh, strength and openness, where at least the needs of 20000 soldiers and a re, this question is really very sensitive. And i would think that its a long way to go. Roman Public Opinion, of course, is shifting not only in germany, but also in the United States. Were seeing particularly among republican voters. And there is a president ial election coming up in the us. So their opinion is very important. A rising on willingness to support ukraine saying that us money should be spent at home to secure the us southern border. And in the face of that, and with republican front runner, donald trump saying that he could and the ukraine war in a day, presumably by negotiating with vladimir putin. Would you say that president s lensky is coming under increasing pressure to go to the negotiation table as well . Of course this pressure has been growing for some time now. And youre absolutely right. I was at the Munich Security Conference just a few days ago. And i spoke to the western intellectual and analytic, yvonne christophe, who just throws an oscar about that, saying that now wars are sometimes decided to develop books and theyll just on the battlefield. And he said that the more just changing, just if, as youve mentioned in the United States in europe, i knew crime himself was there on no more ukrainians and thinking positively that both negotiations negotiations in general. There are still about 90 percent of ukrainians who are not ready to see territories. But what the cost of said, i think is very important. He says we might and might suggest to a point to interest in, in, in, in the coming months this year. Probably after president ial elections in russia when rush, i would be ready to negotiate some kind of a cease fire. And he says that that is only would only make sense to talk about it if, if uh, if nato would be ready to, to accept you crying on a fast track. So that you kind would have security guarantees. Otherwise, there is a great danger that the russian, i would seek ukraine to become some kind of a how this time. So no mans land, you know, a no rule of law and nothing. This is, this is what motors him and not content or disagree. Very interesting, very briefly, if you would raphael of negotiations, even the chairman of the Munich Security Conference prior to the conference, talked about the need for a negotiated solution. Is this the time . I mean, if you look at the sort of universe of cases of wars around the world, 12 times most was and then negotiate settlement. But the single sheet and settlements usually reflect the balance of forces on the ground. And i think no side at the moment, faces and incentives to really make a compromises. I dont quite agree with romans pond on the, on the russian president ial election. I think the us president ial election is probably the more decisive factor in both sides. Attitudes, 20 goal. She, asians, but theres efforts, of course, by all sides, and among the coordination of support us of ukraine, ukraines government incorporation with the swiss government organizing a peace conference, various delegations from african states, from brazil, from china, trying to bring the slides together. These havent produced anything meaningful yet. And so i think over the close of the but probably be on the next year. What was the movement on that front . As western politicians were debating in unit one piece of news temporarily to silence the noisy hall, the depths of opposition liter, ill explain the volume the, and his widows defiant call for justice served as a reminder of putting perfidy and the consequences of western equivocation. After alexia of all of these death in a penal colony, Russian Police are taking action against people who want to pay tribute to the coach and critics, even if just with flowers mountain, it never seems that it is now worse than installing this time to deal with him in the most to much them. So it is important to live in a Democratic State in the 21st century and not in a dictatorship. What is this is what pollutants russia looks like. Here he has shown what soldiers from the forces fighting and ukraine. Hes using all his power to ensure support for his vision of a great russian empire defending itself against the hostile west. Whoever criticizes the war risks, the rest, whoever like bodies, not the listing has the slightest chance of success. And the so called president ial election is not allowed to stand. And now, nope, all of these death. His widow has accused putin of murdering her husband and announced that you are able to continue the work of alex say not only continue to fight for our country, let me just ask you to support me on this, dice it out. Those some really valid these legacy and pollutants. Power will the resistance and your sabina eulley and the volume they received the news of her husbands death at the Munich Security Conference, a number of experts have suggested that that was no coincidence. Youve called russia a mafia state. Would you say that this killing was calculated the way a mafia don might do it to achieve a purpose . Im sure it was calculated and this speaks about pointing susan to avoid. So ill put you as easy a position. And this task for the position to find this where she is silver sheet, which its, its, uh, i would say its unbelievable and its im for, for both. If so will, because this is really a mafia state of what to put is not the state and mafia side by side, but its 11 they are the, the old friends of 14, the dont the power and the government. The most important um, and you know, what, what to say the, the most important parts of a economy. What, when it comes to the private armies, everything is in their hand and to fight such a very strong opponent is almost impossible. Roman. What would you say that the timing and nature of nevada, these depths tell us about put into frame of mind and about put into intentions as well. The timing was definitely to signal to the west before the Munich Security Conference. Look, you wanna negotiate with me. We can negotiate about the ukranian defeat. Thats all. So you want to show strength. I can show you my strength. So i think it was a very clear message and i think that was to receive the message. But what we have to wait for for more, more concrete steps as a response, and well just sanctions. But the best response, and this is what was the modern munich, what being to give more weapons to your crime. And as we have talking about the war, weve just had some remarks by the former action says that the medium and visit said that the restaurant wants key of the of granting and capital and it. So that is one. So i guess a very important lexi port i still held by ukraine. I think of the signals coming from moscow are very clear they will, will continue. So the west needs to bear that in mind. And raphael, that is exactly what the nato member countries on the eastern flank of the alliance are saying, most especially the baltic country is one of whose Foreign Ministers lands bag. As recently said, russians are all in. And if you create and falls protein will not stop, he is coming for us. Would you agree and has the west got that message . Does it have a strategy . I think what was slowly moving towards getting it and, and drawing the right contusions from this challenge that, that, that impact is presenting to us that has a monitor dimension, certainly, and nato is working on that. But it also has a political dimension of reaffirming level or democracy in europe and as an economic that i mention about with making supply chains more resilient about looking also to china at the going challenge that russia and china present to us europeans and the brought up political best, but sabina, the clock is ticking. Has the message gotten through one word. I hope so. A thank you so much to all of you for being with us. Thank you very much to you, roman for joining us virtually. And thanks to all of our viewers. So you said the truly treated by western european patients of the nome and medical textbooks. Does that lead to discrimination against people of color in medicine . Does it result in false diagnoses . And more complications . Is the racism in medicine or in 75 minutes on d w a with finer high i might just do it and im hosting dw and youve called costs. Thanks. Trace amount 5 is actually about join us as we travel around your at tracing the season history of every day. Ok. And that bumpy. Ride around the world. Kind of close to taking the juicy of stories with a Little Mystery of drama along the way. But no need to talk about i just took subscriber id, listen to pa fast and will take you along to the right side. The kid jackie is changing 6 years ago. He said he cant get any was to, but it does guardians of truth. This time, excel gen liz, turned in dar, meets the voices of a free turkey alter as the other one had to flee into exile. I knew the police would search my house. Courageous people are trying to stem the turkish governments all sort of tammy and cools. Of some kids, but really its a crime is addressed in the past of trying to keeps his phone so ability for his action. What about freedom of to print and freedom of expression . Guardians of truth, dots march, 2nd on d, w the, this is the w news, live it from berlin. Germanys Parliament Rejects sending long range missiles to ukraine, at least for now, while makers and Parliament Today voted against sending taurus cruise missiles at the same time voting to send more military aid to help keep a push back. Russian invaders also coming up tonight and is really strong hits a loss in the southern kansas city of bravo. Must run health ministry. He says nearly a 100 fellow citizens were killed in the past 24 hours. And the brazilian football started down the elvis, convicted of rape and sentence to prison by a spanish for a former box alone. A player says he plans to