That Something Else behind it . In any case, the rest of the leadership is threatening retaliation and continuing to use drones and miss solves also against keith, where civilians are still dying. We look at the constantly shifting battlefields and ask all those drawn attacks on russia part of the ukrainian conference. The welcome to to the points. Im pleased to introduce todays panel. Lets go stuff. Presto, military ex, but either you or p and council on the forward relations. Are they say you support the head of the Russia Department of state sleep . It was a but Foundation Think time on while ukrainian colleagues sent me a postcard from. Go to bellas studio in brussels and welcome to all of you. Go stuff. Let me start with you. Um lets just look at the most recent developments. The rushes increase to strong attacks in, in recent days, even during the day. Why is that happening . Uh, how many shows available. Uh, where you see from the wreckage is over these me size to the produce fairly recently. And so basically me size of all fi it has to leave the factory rush. I had a, a slumping production because of sanctions because of interruptions. Supply chains. I bought uh these uh, these interruptions only hold temporarily. So the substitution programs to use Chinese Electronics instead of west and ones now smuggling programs to kind of buy these up components and special materials through search countries and bras. Plate Enterprises Avoid the 2 boys being function yes. To, to avoid being sanctioned. And to, or at least in this part of, of russias arms, industry of the production curve is, again pointing upwards. So they have caused their have more combination to fire. And thats, thats what they use. Except ukraine seems to be defend quite well against these attacks. They shoot down arrow believes cruise missiles, parents, but how much of that success is, is owed to, to west and Weapon Systems. Actually, most of it, because without it, we would see much more deaths, we would see much more casualties. We would see so much more destruction. Just remember that the 1st of such Defense System i think, got into ukraine in october last year. So what we, what were you seeing before that there were lots more there with thousands of people dying after each attack was much more dangerous now from the psychological point of view as well. Ukrainians feel that they are much more protected every time they say thank you to our defenders, but also thank you to the new Defense Systems. It is quite obvious that it had made a huge change in the if we can call in the quality of life of ukrainians, but at least they dont have to fear in the immediate death. Id say that one only drone to tags by russia and attacks on keith, but they will also join attacks by upfront on russian territory. Whats behind that . Strategically, what do you think . Its a good question because theyre quite silent for obvious reasons about what exactly was the aim and we have to see that there are different logics behind. And i think that tax that has to have happened in moscow, although its not completely clear if it was, the drone crashed on purpose. If they were armed with explosives, its a bit unclear in the russian propaganda, of course frames all of them as terrorist attacks suits the narrative. But in general, this is for me more apt, psychological parts of this content offensive to show that the reach of a potential strike is quite expensive. And also you have to imagine most cars, not the board, a city. So they are flying over quite some area with other People Living and its, and to be honest, most going itself is defensible in defense. But the general idea that, you know, its not the uni latrell shooting and being, its shooting and being shot at. Thats important, although i would say that the results, the psychological, the political results of the most co attacks are most, it to be seen that the kremlin is deciding how to react properly. Thats how im clear. And the people are getting nervous, the russians because they also didnt know what the criminal will decide. Its not about the immediate danger of continuous attacks. Its the uncertainty of it. And thats, thats helpful. This is a different story from the attacks in the border areas where there are ukrainian drawing to know terry and so on. Because this is actually an exemplary form of account to offensive now, and it goes to the kremlin toko, you mentioned, just mentioned that the, the possible reaction, the credit talked about the harvest possible retaliation to those attacks. What does that mean . Basically nothing because they are able to continue their strikes as they would continue without those. And there is no 2nd guard wonderland because ive got the guards, one, the army and living in one of the lands training with one of the weapons thats on the fully will change the cause of the war for, for boating. And the Russian Military already is quite stretched, of course that has to be restored, that defense has to work. So probably that there will be resolution cetera. But thats part of the college she um there, the russia has exhausted a lot of its, its military means it is, it is playing a long war game now. And in that its also full. Russels corps means that during the calls of the long will, it will be hit a one or the other time. Now, the longer those will, the higher, of course, the death toll gets, especially for some of the soldiers fighting this war. Nobody knows the exact numbers, but according to us, intelligence estimates ukrainian side alone and stuff at about 20000 deaths. And far more than 100000 injured soldiers sofa, but all remains high. And a warning some view as may find the images in the next report, upset a so they was full most around the clock and save anyone they can severely injured soldiers transported from the front and dropping disability hospital and keys. We tried to save these lives fast, but sometimes we have to amputate. Its especially difficult on young people who suffer from war. Chroma will watch. Ready the soldier just about managed to survive, but he lost his leg and he has to learn to live without his for all this power trooper was seriously injured on the very 2nd day of the russian invasion. Now he wants to return to the front. I was afraid because the town way i spent my whole childhood was on fire and being destroyed. How long can the ukrainians soldiers hold down against the russians who mount number them all too bad those those images. Um, i like say that as we just saw, the pricing spirit are things too crazy and soldiers seem seems lawfully unbroken. But, but in the end, she and number took the balance and pollutants vegas. Its more the fact that the rush has no and the strategic defense. They dont need to actually advance. And this is actually a shift, as opposed to last year when the strategy was to subdue and actually concur and destroy ukraine. Now, while you see the Russian Forces are overstretched and exhausted, but the most, they need to regroup and hold the line. And, and as i mentioned, the whole idea that russia can injure ukraine for a very, very, very long time. Thats the strategy. So the momentum is often cited is there, and the question is of the contract. And so were to put your brain into position to seize the momentum on the minimum is a very strange word to use, but of consist of different things. At the moment its unclear, so the longer the account offensive is not convincing and invisible way and its clear its not the decision the scenario, but still the longer it isnt getting more comfortable for russia to just sit it out. So thats actually not about the numbers and the motivation by itself. Its also a bit about the timing and this leads back to supplies. Im addition, west and support and so on. Time is not working for ukraine at the moment to now talk about the whole time is working a note for ukraine. How much more loss is, how much more suffering as weve just seen. Can you find that ukraine has no choice and ukrainians have no choice and this is what everybody keeps repeating. We have to hang on. We have to hold on and survive and try to make the most out of it. People in the front line, people away from the front line people in the. Occupied areas, they all have different problems now, but at the same time, they are all trying to carry on their old trying to survive and bring ukrainian victory closer. So of course they are living under enormous stress. They constantly experienced a cocktail of emotions, which is fear, which is joy when they may live, maybe one more day or one more months. So maybe their whole life because then miss, ill hit a neighbors house and not theres, you know, and then theres whole that this would end soon because there is another Weapon System coming from the west, which can change the situation in the battlefield. And then theres another attack, and theres fear again, and stress stress stress because of the unknown. And because theres very limited input and even though as an ukrainian you send your money to help the army or to support civil initiatives. But theres very limited influence of a citizen can have on the situation. That good stuff, if you kinds of military leadership said the ready for the content offensive. Weve had that for a long time. Were waiting for this counter offensive. Whats all the credible science that we need to look out for that b condra offensive is going to happen while were on the preparatory phase. So at the time still we, were still uh um i think dean turns if attacks on come on in control posts in your trend sales or something to watch out for robin indication that the ground offensive might commence ra the sooner because of these attacks that the basically, the estimate, the, the local russian on forces groupings to react on these come on post will be rebuilt in a couple of days, a weeks of. So if you want to use the moments whom you build with a storm shelter strikes and ill be quicker. The other thing is, ones that have on time lines a lot about this offensive is logistics to get the munition, but also to get it into ukraine to disperse it, to prepared the cetera. Logistic preparations all extensive because were talking about a very large mos off of soldiers tanks, equipment that will be part of that offensive. And thats all very trivial on, on hands. But its also very difficult for us to look into these preparations that goes ukraines kept them as secret as can be about they billed by and large to, to him on the timeline. So what do you think . What are the, whats the likelihood that we see the contra offensive process to start within the next 4 weeks . Like here it seems to be very good. Thats a set. This strikes in the south indicate that that for mental needs to be billed while the sooner and uh the. So of course with my question, how big would it be . Will it be smaller offenses or will ukrainians achieve a breakthrough that enables them to exploit them in from the inter, bigger games. Thats that verdict is still out there. Of course theyre all good chances for your train to have a major breakthrough bought in military. Theyre always chances there, youve never secure whether a band might work or not. Because its, its a very complicated affair. Ive seen it. Let me just put this in question to you. I mean, you have your feel as into the country that is under attack the. Whats the feeling inside of ukraine about this congress offensive . People are hoping that it would come and soon, and people are hoping that it would bring the victory close or victory, meaning liberating the occupied territories by russia and people. Of course, they would like to believe that its coming very soon. They are optimistic because as i said, sometimes hope is the only thing they have. And sometimes their principals is the only thing they have. They dont want this bad piece as they say they dont want just, you know, for this to stop, but to be frozen for, you know, as is uh in the state of school. If possible, right . Is it . Well, nobody knows whats going to happen really, but ukrainians, according to statistics and according to what people i know say they dont want this kind of scenario to happen. They really want to recover all the territory and they want russia out of the country because anything russian right now is extremely irritating and causing more every time its more and more rage. This is very interesting that you mentioned this. So let me put this to you the is, is it likely that that will be a compromise, i mean, with just uh, the most ukrainians, one to find that so to the end, the russian solid as a country lets truth to what does it mean to find it to the, there is the language saying the moment the last russian soldier leaves the legal territory of ukraine. There is the military, victoria, but again, lets see that most of aggression in violence was inflicted at the moment to ukraine in cities. Are rockets strikes and drones . This will not happen by the late a soldier just leaving your claim. It doesnt. So here with this. So this is for a 2nd. Maybe your brain would have the play by that time. The, the, the fighter just which includes its waiting for your bringing. Yeah. So the question is, this is one second is a military success. How does it translate into political change . There was a theory of change saying look, that you create an offense if its successful means some kind of familiar to reading and humiliation for the russian side minutes recommendation could be imagined in terms of a collapse of the front line. So maybe there was a large number of people encircled, so something which ignites a disruptive moment inside the russian state apparatus. Im very skeptical about this because i see a high capacity of the kremlin to manage any kind of technical military defeat. Even if we would agree that this is a defeat. This doesnt necessarily translate into political turmoil. This is the 2nd thing, the front thing is that in order to maintain Ukrainian Security outside of nature, you wouldnt need to much higher sustained level of supply. Some good stuff instead of going mentioned, its a bulky, munitions, but fuel its about training. Its about a repair basis and so on over a continued period of time years. Im not quite sure isnt your opinion where they are yet. There is this catch 22 problem. Everyone expects wonders from the ukraine and offensive when you get a pee inside, in order to trigger a conversation about how were going to do this for the next 10 years. And they can work inside of this. There might be a time for that political process, but this is what the expectation that theyve already seen wonder is because lets, lets remember the talks about how you cream would fall in 3 day is, you know, and yeah its, its my favorite example. It was a wonder because as you say, it was, you know, a russian knew very well what they were doing and ukraine was standing there alone. No 4 and soldier would help ever under ukrainian territory. Ukraine didnt have all these weapons. The thing is russia was an offense and now rushes when the defense. Yeah. So it takes a completely different momentum and effort to change the situation. So the comparison is correct in terms that ukraine has. And you can know the train that people have performed are absolutely amazingly beyond any expectations. But the thing is that even if this counter offensive fis extremely successful, it doesnt necessarily end the war at this very moment. Its really smart, but it might change it. And i think this is the most realistic that we can expect. Let me pick this up, a good stuff if there is a problem, is that of all i seen, wrist and strategy, we have this verse for it as long as it takes a lost those ass leave off. Theres a huge delta between the rhetoric and the actual supply extreme gets. Now, of course everybody understands that there is no the come to offensive. And for a lot of european countries, theres a kind of a trial balloon. They hold for a settlement to happen. Theyre off to like, yeah, this would be embarrassing for putting wouldnt that embarrassing if hed make them negotiate . What if not, that the problem is, as we seen with this counsel, friends, if you knew we have the pulse, basically since last, last all to him about the supply of certain weapons system. Lets remember the low part to debate. It takes months to bring them into your train, it takes months to prepare them for shipment, et cetera. Now everybody is basically waiting for the account to offensive and will happen to over the summer. You train us time over the summer to make good and territory. And i dont even watch them then watch where it is all preparation for the next shipment, very solid Defense Industrial strategy to relieve equipment that ukraine would need. And ive said if we can replace it in europe, its not there. Everybody is like sitting there saying watch what is going on in any autumn is oh my god, we should have, we should have, we should, im the losing time again. And then basically we have these opera, these falls as the go with the winter, etc. And most coolest fine was that as by now basically putting has realized with a note when the war by the merits of his own glory is ami bought by the whole world that donald trump maybe if he returns in 2024 by political divisions in the west, he may be present at where the rectory in ukraine because of sort of western supply drying out. So hes playing for time and we are not on the cutting his confidence in the play for time buying what were doing. Unfortunately, it takes too long its true because if youre, if youre in union says, uh lets create this asap be. So act in support of the munition production. Uh, lets vote for it. Lets have this 3 phase plan where we give you crane the im, you mentioned that we have been reimbursed the countries then we, we change our contracts, then we produce more. Uh, even if its done at the fastest, you know, pays that the European Union can go. Its still too slow for ukraine in there. Of course you are. Right. And there i am safe with, you know, you very well what he was doing. So anything that the you does or the community of 50 plus states does in order to militarily support ukraine, shows great. Anything shows great support, but still, unfortunately, its an ukraine says that as well, they admitted its not fast enough and its simply not enough. Theyre happy about any kind of help they are expecting to get the fighter jets now, which were considered to boil, actually up some time ago for them to every to boil. So far has been negotiate. I was negotiated, but still anything in terms of looking at the suffering of you create his last lives of how fast it should actually the dynamics of the war. Just anything right now that were seeing is too slow, can i . Um, it just points towards the the might might sound a bit heretical, but lets bear with thoughts. So the average russians in the area is that uh now uh, getting attacked. Uh, whats the mood that you think the mood, i mean there are areas at the board, the on the russian sides have been witnessing a as a war creeping into their actual cities for a long time. Now its not like now is there is a what a shed moment for a year long . Yeah. Oh yeah, almost 4 year they have been strikes and struggle since comments just as incursions. So the war is the reality there. And there is a big difference between the population of the big cities, including most consensus, but because they feel that the very this, the both come ukrainian suffering but also from the suffering of their own competitor. Its at the border. So for them now, the uncertainty is both about its just there, there was a lot of, um, there was a lot of anger about the local authorities about board a troops. And this is why the government in the military will need to react in this works. So military, really speaking, reinforcing your board a means that youre taking away forces, which i use for the aggression. This is a good strategy in terms of the day to day. Most people dont really think about the politics of it. So they see kids have to be about create that some houses are attack, there was a need to go back into areas which have been quite a few to check on your houses and so on. Their reality is they are, and i think the less mature is that, even if you think your political mazda might, you can put a war into a box in to say, this is a special military operation. And this is war. And this is peace. And i will be able to contain it, what russia is with this thing right now is that you cannot hold a war on the leash, it takes that space and it goes and expands by itself. This is whats happening. Let me pick this up. You kind of a, keep a boy on a lease. If we zoom out a bit and talk about the roofs and, and what was happened, there is neighboring, both russia and ukraine. And its president said recently that Russian Nuclear weapons and i was stationed in investors is about to be taken serious. A normally happens. Does it matter . It makes no difference administered terms. I think it makes a lot of difference in political terms as little question co sees that as a, as an insurance policy for his personal life. He wants to have a guarantee that russia will fight for him. And of course, if the Russian Nuclear weapons on the ground, the bellows is one incentive for, for, for, for these are we, we will not take chances in, in any form of unrest. We will have to keep location, couldnt place. That is actually a Russian Nuclear storage site just behind the board or federal. So any new kill and the bar nuclear sharing, so called india, sharing agreements between the better russian on forces and the russian. Unfortunately before that because that in the context of the union state, uh, even according to pre will ministry doctrine and on and rush documents that are fellows would be defended also by new care means instead of the very we are a combination of the 2 state entities which theyve had for the case for 5 years, the better than you have excuse for both parties to do basically whatever, whatever they want to do, whatever the accountability and we perceive right now, the more it goes on, the more we perceive voters as just an extension of russian, you know, policies and politics are ukrainians, worried about bill of whos getting rolling into this . Well of course the thing is the worried of ukrainians basically are worried. But the thing is there is nothing new that one can expect from lucas shang call. So its, its quite predictable. Whats going to happen . Uh, nobody is, is he is expecting that lucas englewood suddenly change his mind or say, to poor to know, or, you know, drift towards europe. Its, its all quite clear. Lots more to discuss all the time is often unfortunately, thats it for this edition. To the point, i hope you enjoyed the discussion and drawing the conversation. If you happen to watch us on youtube, leave your comments and thoughts down below. Wed love to hear the god offers from me my panel here in the studio and the team. Thanks for the shift your guide to life and look Digital World to explore the latest online, trying to navigate your way through the digital jungle. Get a global perspective will be your guide and show you whats possible. She decides what really matters to use. Shift coming up on d. W. T a 2018 investigative journalist again to see how was magics on covering political corruption, had sealed his face with another was behind the scenes. The case was closed. Thoughts is this the whole truth . 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