Enter the no spin zone. The factor begins right now. Hi, im bill oreilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. The truth about donald trump and Hillary Clinton, the truth. That is the subject of this evenings talking points memo. In the wake of the latest email chaos, donald trump is gaining in the national polling. Latest abc news tracking poll has trump up by 1. Rasmussen has the race tied. Investors business daily has Hillary Clinton up by 1. The real clear politics average, clinton by 2. 2 , which is a virtual tie. It all comes down to electoral votes and we will analyze those in just a few moments. No matter who wins the presidency, americans will be uneasy. Lets take Hillary Clinton first. Mrs. Clinton has devoted herself to Public Service in three decades but has not really achieved anything outstanding. Her major accomplishment was helping the state and city of new york after the 9 11 attack. As senator here she did a very good job getting resources in to a devastated area. As secretary of state, mrs. Clinton actively participated in president obamas failed attempt to place the u. S. A. In a subordinate position overseas. As we all know, mr. Obama did not want to lead, rather he hesitated in the middle east, in afghanistan, in confronting russia. That policy is turning out to be disastrous and Hillary Clinton was his secretary of state for much of the retreat. That is not a partisan analysis. That is a fact. All you have to do is look at what is happening in syria, iraq, afghanistan, europe, south china sea, iran, and the persian gulf not to mention north korea. Foreign policy under barack obama has been a chaotic failure. Our enemies do not, do not fear us. If Hillary Clinton is elected president , there is really no reason for optimism. She supported the failure of obamacare. She has veered sharply left in her social beliefs. Now, she doesnt even oppose partial birth abortion on the day a baby would be born. As for the economy, mrs. Clinton is a tax and spend liberal. And that policy has not stimulated growth for 8 long years in this country. Now, on the other side there is donald trump. Completely untested in geo politics. Mr. Trump has made big promises that he will return prosperity to the u. S. A. And regain a leadership role for america and the world. That will not be easy. And mr. Trump has no track record, no achievements to bolster his rhetoric. Instead he has a checkered business record. Although, to be fair, he has overcome big set backs to build a very powerful business brand. Mr. Trump is running as an outsider who promises to clean up washington and that message alone has a tremendous appeal. As everyone knows, his personal life as entertainer has been controversial. He is a blunt speaker who sometimes does not think before he makes public statements and that has hurt him with minority americans and those who fear confrontation. If mr. Trump is elected president , he will take office with the least amount of political experience of any commander in chief in history. So voters, you guys are faced with more negatives than positives in this election. Hillary clinton is portrayed as a dishonest person who has had controversy after controversy. Donald trump is portrayed as an immature rogue who has had controversy after controversy. Thats the choice america faces one week from today. In the end, it should come down to your own belief system and which candidate better reflects that. Its personal. And thats the memo. Now for the top story tonight, whose winning right now . Joining us from boston anderson democratic pollster who works for fox news and dr. Darren shaw, a republican pollster who also works for fox news. The next fnc poll will be released next friday evening. Dr. Shah begin with you, are you seeing a shift in the polling because of the email frakus this week . Well, bill, its not clear that its entirely dual to the email frakus. I think what you have seen in the national polls, the polls we pay a lot of attention to high media polls change from 7 pointed clinton lead down to 3 or 4 point clinton lead. Yeah, there has been movement in the polls. The question though is how much of this sort of email fake can you say iemail frakg it. Republicans come home and what looks to be happening right now is Gary Johnsons support, to lesser extent jill Stein Johnson support create cratered also. See Hillary Clinton up by double digits and short time later donald trump up by one. How do you process that . I want to see more polls. And this is little bit of an odd comment here but i have found that halloween and halloween weekend are not trust one way or the other times to be in the field i have seen some strange samples. I want to see a little more polling. To darons point the race is tightening with republicans coming home, consolidating there. But were still left with this 5 or so undecided in the underlying structure of that was not changed in that. No, here is what has changed in my opinion. Voter suppression, not showing up not showing up there are manies that have had it if voters particularly in the minority precincts dont show up. Thats got to help donald trump. I think you are channeling the Clinton Campaign right now. I think this is their fear. What we have seen in the data and you are hearing the same thing coming from the clinton camp now through back channels very concerned about africanamerican turnout which has been very stable over the last not just because of obama last three or four cycles is they have done a good job of mobilizing africanamerican voters. The enthusiasm levels are not what they have been at. Conversely the up side for the clinton people is that these collegeeducated voters who they use to lose. Democrats have never really had much of an inroad with White College educated voters. They are coming out, my understanding of the analysis those voters are maintaining preference for clinton and maintaining numbers. Unusual election. I would be surprised, mr. Anderson, if millennials turned out big this time around but i have been wrong before. But i just would be real shocked if they come out big. Well, i have always advised candidates against counting on young voters any time. They are undepend being. They are a bonus if they come out. Structurally its pretty clear that the Clinton Campaign has a major election day advantage and early voting advantage. Just we know they have vastly more field offices. Vastly more people going door to door. If the poll narrows to a point it looks like a dead heat a lot of the battleground states you give clinton a point on operation. Enthusiasm gap favors trump and all the polls say that, that trumps people are much more jazzed than clintons people are. Gentlemen, thank you very much. We appreciate it next on the rundown, the electoral vote scenario. What does trump have to do to defeat Hillary Clinton . I have done some math here. Later, governor mike pence enters the no spin zone. He is campaigning in pennsylvania, a state trump desperately needs. Those reports after these messages. Well, here we go again. Bad judgment. Issues, not insults. She should be ashamed of herself. Fair and balanced, Fox News Channel has Election Night covered because we are whatcha doin . Just checking my free credit score at credit karma. What the . . . Youre welcome. I just helped you dodge a bullet. But i was just checking my. Shhh. Dont you know that checking your credit score lowers it just be cool. Actually, checking your credit score with credit karma doesnt affect it at all. Are you sure . Positive. So i guess i can just check my credit score then . Oooh check out credit karma today. Credit karma. Give yourself some credit. Sorry about that. I am totally blind. I lost my sight in afghanistan. If youre totally blind, you may also be struggling with non24. Calling 8448442424. Or visit my24info. Com. They offer a claimfreerance a smdiscount. Because safe drivers cost less to insure, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Esurance does Auto Insurance a smarter way. Like their photo claims tool. It helps settle your claim quickly, which saves time, which saves money. And when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Campaign 2016 segment tonight, the Electoral College for those of how dont know much about it just a system by each state gets votes based upon population. If there were just a popular vote, you guys just voting for president , the large cities would have an unfair advantage. For example a candidate could put together a package of entitlesments for new york city, chicago, dallas, miami and win. Thereby leaving out the People Living in less Populated Areas hello montana. There are 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency and right now Hillary Clinton is in the need here in new york city arnon head of the fox news decision desk. I want you to bear with me here. Sure. I have done my own analysis and i have to admit arnot is a lot smarter than i am. I have told him in the break tell me where im crazy. But lets just go down the list first of all. All right, leaning democratic states. Yes. You have colorado and North Carolina in the lean. Yes. But the latest polling in North Carolina has trump ahead. All right . There was one poll, yes. But thats the latest poll. Yes. Colorado trump he is campaigning very hard in that state. Which tells me the internal republican polling says he has a shot there. Am i wrong . You know, Trump Campaign doesnt have that big of polling operation. But there are clearly some signs that colorado could go for trump. My own. Its close. Yeah, its close. Absolutely. All right. So your own you were saying. My own sense is that his opportunities in terms of stealing states that currently we have. I dont want to get okay. Colorado, if they dump out of gary johnson, the pot guy which all over the country thats happening. Yes. That helps trump . Most likely, yes. Thats why trump is there so im going to say colorado and North Carolina are the leaning democratic states that you have are possible for trump. And maybe he can pick off maine one electoral vote there. Absolutely. Now we go over to leaning republican states, all right . Yeah. Alaska, georgia, indiana, missouri, nebraska, texas. Im giving all of those to trump. I think thats a good bet. All right. So thats 70something 79 votes. So i have just given trump, im giving him North Carolina. I think trump is going to win North Carolina. Okay. Just giving him 1899 electoral votes. Colorado im not so sure about. Are you with me so far . Yes. All right. So he has got 189. Okay. Then we go to tossup states. Yes. He needs 270. The tossup states first one is arizona. I say trump wins because mccain is going to win big there. I think arizona of all those states, we actually have leaning republican. I think its very possible. So i say he takes arizona. Florida, its impossible to call. Its going to be like the bush gore thing. Very possible. 8 vote. 8 guys living in the everglades, all right, dodging boa constrictors are going to make the call here. But thats a 29er down there. Trump could win that. He absolutely can win florida. Iowa, im saying that he is going to win iowa. Thats 6, all right . That trump will win because of the demographic is all white. All right . Its another good bet. Okay. Maine, the one vote, way, way up in the northern reaches, again, all white, he has been up there, trump, hillary doesnt even know where it is. Possible to get that. Nevada, the latest poll show trump is ahead and so is the senatorial republican there, correct . Thats another tossup state that he could easily win, yes. But is he gaining in nevada as johnson is losing. See wherever johnson is losing votes trump gains. Johnson is losing in colorado and nevada. Yeah. So far you are with me. You havent made fun of me once. I have got two more. [ laughter ] all right. I have got utah. Okay. And here we have got this guy running against him, its impossible to know the mormons dont like trump. They dont like him. They dont like his personal life or anything about him. Yeah. Trump could lose utah with the other guy winning, not Hillary Clinton. But in a sense it doesnt matter because if trump doesnt get to 270 but would have gotten to 270 with utah, the race goes to the house of representatives. And there the republicans will take. Because she would be below 270, too . Precisely. Ohio is the last one, 18 electoral votes. Trump is running slightly ahead in ohio. Portman, the senator running way ahead. Big ahead. Kasich voted for john mccain. He is out of it. If cleveland doesnt show up and i think cleveland may win the world series tonight. If the minorities dont show up there, trump wins. Trump could very easily win ohio, iowa, and florida. Absolutely. Looking at the polling today. On the electoral vote you and i agree that he has got a good shot. Not a good shot he has got a fair shot. He has a fair shot. But i dont think even if you get to your arithmetic he gets to 270. I have it 270 if he takes all the states that i mentioned. One state that i think needs to be in the trump calculus is pennsylvania. He is not going to win pennsylvania, i dont think. We are going it talk to pence, he is in pennsylvania tonight. What i found interesting about the way he is spending his time. He is all over pennsylvania. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, florida, which i think is very shrewd. I would be if trump wins pennsylvania, he is president. He is president. I think the race is going to boil down to pennsylvania. Absolutely. Arnon, thanks very much. Directly ahead, lots of whining about Hillary Clintons gender again. Well take a hard look at it mike pence enters the no spin zone. He is in pennsylvania must he is in pennsylvania must win millions of women worldwide trust tena with their bladder matters. Thanks to its triple protections from leaks, odor and moisture. Tena lets you be you this artoo unit must be delivered to the rebellion. Come on artoo artoo the rebellion. This is for you. Duracell and Childrens Miracle Network hospitals are powering imaginations everywhere. Want a great way to help our children thrive . Then be sure to vote yes on proposition 55. Prop 55 doesnt raise taxes on anyone. Instead, it simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians to prevent education cuts that would hurt our kids. No wonder prop 55 is endorsed by the california pta, teachers and educators. Because all of us want to help our children thrive. Its time to vote yes on proposition 55. As californias former director of finance, i assure you, proposition 64 is a smarter, safer, more fiscally sound approach to adultuse marijuana than what our states currently doing. So, though ive never tried marijuana, and i dont advocate others doing so, im voting yes on 64. To legalize, regulate and tax marijuana for adults 21 and over. 64 has strict safeguards for families. And a billion dollars in new revenue for our states greatest needs. So, vote yes on 64. Personal story segment tonight, gender and politics. You may remember that in 2006 i wrote a book called culture warrior spelled out intense fight between traditional americans and those who want to revamp our entire system. One of the men in the book is george who teaches at the university of california berkeley. His former wife also teaches there and said this after Hillary Clintons email story broke on friday, quote i am mad because i am scared. And if you are a woman, you should be, too. Email gate is a bitch hunt, but the target is not Hillary Clinton. Its us. The only reason the whole email flap has legs is because the candidate is female, unquote. Sorry about the b word but i had to do it. With us now here in new york city to react is lisa booth and juan williams. And you say, juan. I was a little taken aback when i read it because i dont think thats right. She says its an attack on us and here she is talking about a universe of women. Yes. To me there is legitimate issue about the emails and about National Security and mrs. Clintons decision to use the private server. I think its overblown but i think its a legitimate issue and not a genderspecific issue. And why do you think a professor at the university of california berkeley would inject this insane thesis so if donald trump had violated National Security we would have ignored it because only women, lisa, are going to be subject to this National Security scrutiny. This woman is a teacher as well which is more troubling. Here is what is worse you have to pay to take her class. Which blows my mind. You have to pay. Im surprised that Time Magazine ran this column. Its asinine. The column doesnt make any sense to juans point which is reasonable, im surprised but, no,. [ laughter ] im just kidding. No, what kind of message is it sending her students that somehow as a woman you can do whatever you want and then use your gender as a shield to insulate yourself from lets be fair, Hillary Clinton is not using a shield this nut is. Not in this specific instance we havent heard her. You can go back and look at the democratic debate even with Bernie Sanders. She is trying to use her gender as a shield and a sword. She is trying to use her gender to sway women voters to say look, im the first female president. Here is my gender card all over the place. She hasnt done that all that much. She has. Go back to the debate and Bernie Sanders tried to hold