Studio 1a in rockefeller plaza. And good morning, everyone. Welcome to today on a monday morning. Weve advanced a year, and, i mean that literally. Happy birthday belatedly. Thank you, to you as well. Yeah. Do you believe it . Were so much older. Did you celebrate . I did. Thats why im on a tensecond delay. My new years is extending to monday, january 4th. Well catch up in a while. Well start with our top story. New fireworks in the president ial race to begin the new year, including Donald Trumps very First Television ad. We have it all covered beginning with nbc National Correspondent peter alexander. Peter, good morning to you. Reporter matt, happy new year to you. Donald trump ringing in the new year with what is in effect his campaigns closing argument. This long awaited first tv ad is provocative, a lot like his candidacy, focusing on illegal immigration and the threat from donald trump, and i approve this message. Reporter overnight donald trump released his first tv ad of the campaign, a move hes hinted at t r months. Airing in iowa and new stance on isis and immigration. Thats why hes calling for a temporary shutdown of muslims entering the United States. Hell quickly cut the head off of isis and take their oil. Reporter the new ad comes on the heels of a new recruitment video from al qaeda affiliate al shababn africa, highlighting trumps proposed muslim ban, trump shrugging it off. What am i going to do . I have to say what i have to say. Reporter instead citing an fornicators. Reporter that attacks former president bill clinton for his i think its an isis, and they really put him down as a degenerate. Reporter frontrunner now targeting both clintons. Hillary clinton created isis with obama. Reporter just as the former president gets set to hit the trail today on his wifes behalf tweeting the worst thing hillary could do is have her Husband Campaign for her, just watch, and hammering bill clinton for his alleged misconduct. Picture for her or for bill because im the only one thats willing to talk about his problems. I mean what he did and what he has gone through i think is, frankly, terrible, especially if she wants to play the woman card. Reporter clinton is even hearing about t on the road. IniNew Hampshire she dismissed a republican state lawmaker who heckled her about her husbands alleged extramarital affairs. You are very rude, and im not going to ever call on you. Reporter across the board the candidates are now in the final sprint. Listen to this. This week alone theyre going to hold 44 events in iowa. In fact, the majory of them have about 28 from the freshman senator ted cruz. Shows you just how important the caucuses are to his candidacy, and there in New Hampshire 58 events overall, all in the first week of what is certain to be a historymaking year. Matt, savannah, back to you. All right. Peter alexander. Peter, thank you very much. What can we expect to hear from former president bill clinton as he hits the campaign trail for his wife . Nbcs Kristen Welker is in New Hampshire with that side of the story this morning. Kristen, good morning. Former president bill clinton will try to seal the deal when he campaigns here in New Hampshire. Campaign aides tell me expect him to be a frequent presence on the trail. Of course, this first stop does come amidst t barrage of criticism from donald trump as peter just talked about. Clinton Campaign Officials really brushing that aside. They say, look, hes one of the most popular politicians in the country. They believe the benefits far outweigh the costs. In terms of strategy, they tell me dont expect secretary Hillary Clinton to engage in some type of verbal tit for tat with donald trump over the issue. Of course, its the last thing she really wants to be talking about. Instead youll see her do what she has been doing consistently, which is to criticize donald trump over his controversial comments, including his call to ban all muslims from entering the United States. From a political perspective, New Hampshire is really anyones game right now. Clinton and Bernie Sanders if clinton wins, it would allow her to lock up the nomination early, but for Bernie Sanders this is really do or die. Polls show he has a lead here. Hes from neighboring vermont, but, of course, Hillary Clinton has a close relationship with New Hampshire as well. She won here in 2008. By the way, she could explain a loss in New Hampshire, but a loss in iowa would be devastating, and that is where she will be campaigning later today. Savannah. All right, Kristen Welker, thanks. Lets bring in chuck todd, nbcs political director and moderator of meet the press, and nicolle wallace, msnbc analyst and former White House Communications director under former president george w. Bush. Good morningnghappy new year. Happy new year. W wre going to meet here often over the next month or s s theres an election this way, have you heard that. People are going to start covering it. Lets talk about Donald TrumpsFirst Campaign ad of this president ial election. It phes all the buttons. You hear him push as a campaign stop. These are his applause lines. Right. It . No. No, but i im not sure why thats necessary. The thing with Donald Trumps candidacy is that it is blaring out of every speaker you come across, so im not sure what a paid ad gets you that his campaign isnt already achieving. They saturate the airwaves. Everyone has heard these messages either from donald trump himself or in the coverage of it. Shes saying why spend the money. Look, what he needs to be spending the money on is organization, organization, organization. Thats what im trying to figure out. You knkn, his folks are not frequent voters. They show up in general elections, but theyre not frequent primary voters. He needs to be coming up with ways to make sure these folks come, particularly in those caucuses but also as well as New Hampshire. This doesnt feel l le a get out the vote message. Lets talk about Hillary Clinton. Shes deploying bill clinton who, of course, democrats consider to be one of their best surrogates, a great campaigner. Meanwhile, donald trump is pulling up all this stuff from the past. The clinton side wants to blow it off, nothing to see here, but hes putting things back out into the ether that we havent really heard about in ten years. Smart politics for trump . Last week, if youre a normal every into this campaign, congratulations, i was not among you. Last week donald trump had some voices from the Mainstream Media really say that these were legitimate attacks, both on the race questions for 2008, some of bill clintons rather questionable moves against then senator obama, and then on the fidelity question. So i dont think that its surprising that donald trump is going after the clintons. I think the clintons can look to jeb bush and others to say the perils of ignoring an attack from donald trump. L lk, i think its smart on trumumbecause theres been all this speculation, isnt he really actually secretly wanting to help the clintons. Now, number one, hes not trying to help the clintons. Hes attacking them. Two, it gives this idea of inevitability. Hey, im already looking to the general election, i dont need to be dealing wititthe whole primary mess. I think it will be interesting to see if the clintons take the bait. I hear you. You dont want to ignore it, but and look whats happening. Weve done an entire interview only talking about donald trump and Hillary Clinton. So its wildccd football weekend coming up. Each give me your wild card. Who should we be looking at . Its possible the true frontrunners lose one or both of the first two votes. I think rubio and christies camps feel very strongly they are peaking at exactly the right time, rubio making a speech this morning in National Security. They feel like that gives them an edge and christie making some stealth moves in iowa. The one thingnghat could happen thats not out of the alm, ted cruz could win iowa d New Hampshire. Why . So many people trying to make New Hampshire make or break. They will split up the moderate vote, and nobody is competing for cruzs vote in New Hampshire. Trump may ask himself why he didnt attack cruz with the tv ads as opposed to what we see right now. Chuck, nichollk nicolle, thank you. Thank you, guys. President obama will meet lynch in the oval office today. They will discuss options on the steps he could take to help reduce gun violence. The president expected to use executive action to strengthen background checks for those who want to buy firearms at gun shows. Republicans strongly oppose any moves the president may make, and legal fights seem likely. Donald trump called possible actions an assault on the second amendment. In other news, a tense situation playing out in oregon this morning. Armed protesters are occupying buildings on a federal wildlife refuge. Nbcs joe fryer is near the scene of the standoff which is now entering its third day. Joe, good morning. Reporter good morning, savannah. Authorities are urging the public to stay away from this refuge. There is no visible Police Presence here, but the fbi says it wants a peaceful resolution. Protesters here want local control of this federal land and say if necessary, theyre prepared to stay here for years. The headquarters of ththmalheur National Wildlife refuge has been turned into a compound for an armed occupation. Inside, they are making soup and stocking up. We are setting ourselves up to help the citizens here in Harney County to reclaim their lands back. Reporter throughout this remote community, theres occupation. The county canceled school all week out of a concern for safety. I dont like the militias message. Its sort of frightening when theres people making threats and people touting guns. Reporter over the weekend activists took over the refuge which was empty at the time. Its unclear how many are here. In a statement the sheriff says the group wants to overthrow the county and federal governmenenin hopes to spark a Movement Across the United States. Protesters say they wont get violent unless the government does. We are here to defend the people, and we will not take aggression. Reporter ammon bundy is the groups leader. Hes thehe son of cliven bundy, the nevada rancher who in 2014 had his own standoff with the government over grazing rights. This latest protest centers around oregon ranchers Dwight Hammond jr. And his son stephen. Both are supposed to report to prison today, convicted of lighting firings on public land time, but a judge ruled it wasnt enough. Seems like a bit of an n overkill. Reporter dozens rallied peacefully saturday in support of the ranchers. Thats when a small group splintered off, driving to the refuge and taking it over with no plans to leave any time soon. The attorney for the hammonds have said they do plan to report to prison today. In t t past that attorney has said that this group thats here right now does not speak on behalf of the hammonds. Matt and savannah. All right. Joe fryer, thank you. Now to a diplomatic crisis overseas. Its being closely watched by the obama administration. Saudi arabia severing ties with iran amid escalating tension over the saudis execution of a prominent cleric. Nbcs chief global correspondent bill n ely has more on this. Bill, good morning to u. Reporter good morning, matt. This is a war of words, and it is dangerous. Irans diplomats, the two nations trading warnings and insults. Of course, they both claim to lead the muslim world across which there are being riots and protests over an extraordinary execution. Tensions are growing with mass demonstrations above all in iran at the killing of a shia cleric by its main sunni rival, saudi arabia. Protests from india where rioters condemn saudi arabia to bahrain, where shia crowds called for the death of the saudi royal family, to new york, a protest reported on iranian tv. We pray to god that things are calmed down. Reporter the diplomatic spat is growing too. Saudi diplomats have left iran after crowds burned the saudi embassy. Their spokesman ving iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave saudi. The cleric killed was buried quietly, but the execution of 47 men has echoed around the Muslim Nimr Al Nimr was an internationally known shia scholar, harshly critical of the saudi regime who was harshly executed for its shia minority. Ans Supreme Court leader warned saudi arabia would face divine revenge for a crime. The execution has inflamed tensions. Now worse than ever. Concerned, not just at diplomatic ties have been cuts, but effect that a could have on peace talks. Course, back different sidid in that war. Theres no sign this will boil over into conflict between the two, not yet anyway, but, matt and savannah, this is serious. Bill neely in london on this story. Bill, thank you very much. This morning were getting the illfated cargo ship el faro that sank after sailing into the path of a category 4 hurricane this morning. Nat is following this story. Good morning. Good morning. Its being called the worst u. S. Maritime disaster in 35 years. 33 people died when this ship went down. Now the ntsb is releasing an underwater look at whats been found so far. New overnighgh the first underwater images of the wreckage of el faro, the container ship that was carrying 33 crew members when it sank near the bahamas during a the eerie images show the stern of el faro, the navigation bridge which detached from the deck sitting 15,000 feet below sea level. On october 1st the el faro was sailing from jacksonville, florida, to puerto rico when it lost engine power and got caught in the category 4 storm. Investigators have yet to discover the 35foot mast where located. That socalled black box could which h main a mystery. Viewing the video of the wreckage has been emotional. Were looking, of course, for the bridge and the voyage data recorder, and we got up to that level to see just openness was extremely moving a a difficult. It was a very big surprise to us to see that. Also missing were any remains of the crew or their belongings. All 33 people on board are presumed dead, but none of their bodies or personal effects have the ntsb is considering launching a second investigation to locate additional wreckage and uncover more clues as to what happened. I think it was s series of unfortunate events, and without any other information i truly the ntsb doesnt know if and when a second search for the wreckage could occur, but either way it could take as long as a year before more details about guys. All right, natalie. Thank you. Let us start the new year with a little powerball fever. Its heating up now that the jackpot has reached a whopping that, by the way, the sixth largest in history. No oneneatched all six numbebe on saturdays drawing. The next drawing wednesday. If you are wondering, mr. Roker, about your odds of winning, try 1 in 292 million. Wow. Feeling lucky . Yes, i am. Yes, i am. After all, were all together. I know. Reunited. Happy new year. Good to see you guys. Lets take a look at some of the weather weve been seeing over in missouri. That flooding has beenenust horrible. The good news is were starting to see a little bit of a break. The weather has cooperated. But we still have to worry about folks downstream. Right now the river flood gauges are in better shape than they have been. Over the weekend it was 400 and now its down to 228, 27 locations in major flooding. Memphis, tennessee, they are going to see their crest right stage. Well continue to watch this. Other big thing were watching, the cold air. It was back to normal. Winter is here. Right now it feels like 2 below in buffalo. 21 in new york city, boston 18, washington feels like 26. Today the temperatures will feel anywhere from 13 below to 14 above, 10 to 40 degrees below average. And after a record december, it feels even worse. But look at this. Heres the good news. By wednesday were above average from chicago, buffalo, portland. Were going to get to your local forecast coming up in the next 30 seconds. Well give it a 6 for composition. Scary. Wow, what about just putting a fair, no haggle price on the window . Not zany enough . Are pretty plain to see. Clouds moved in on our sunday for many of us as temperatures were quite a bit cooler than saturday only topping out in the 20s. We could see areas of fog form sunday night and visibilities may be a bit limited early on monday as well. Well have to be careful f some sliik conditionss monday morning because of some freezing fog. Highs will again only be in the 20s on monday but tuesday should be a bit warmer as a stronger south wind should bring highs into the low 30s. Our weather becomes a bit more active by later in the week with some precipitation possible. A few flurries could fall on wednesday with a little light rain or snow chances will come at us thursday night and friday with a mix of precipitation possible. As that syste and thats your latestt weather. All right, al. Thanks so much. Coming up, the push to extradite the socalled affluenza teen from mexico. Plus, well hear for the first time from the family of one of the victims he killed in a drunk driving crash. And then on a new rossen reports, the crash test you need to see before you take your pet first, this is day on nbc. Just ahead, she has had a note. One little girls attempt to get an extra week off for christmas break. I tried that. Andndennifer lopez opens up about her new [ sneezing ] the cold truth is,s, if a cold keeps you up at night. You cant work from home the next day. [ coughing ] thats why you need alka seltzer plus day night liquid gels. Its tou