Transcripts For LINKTV Quadriga 20240703 : vimarsana.com

Point. Im javier and im glad to be joined by todays guests. Im going to introduce them to you. Is point. Im javier and im glad to be joined by the senior germany correspondent for the economist based in berlin felix lie is a journalist, a longtime correspondent in china and currently works for the specialist german news outlet china table. And isha baa is my colleague from dw. She is joining us from delhi to all of you. Thank you very much for being with us and lets cut right to the chase. Felix. Id like to start with you xi jinping certainly knows how symbolic it is not to attend a g 20 summit for the very first time. What do you make of his decision . Well, officially theres no, theres no official announcement, so we do not know for sure what the reasons why hes not attending theres no, theres no official announcement, so we do not the g 20 summit in delhi. But i think its not so much meant against india. I mean, there are rivalries, there are disputes, border disputes, but they exist, they exist already for a longer time. So i dont think rivalries, there are disputes, border disputes, but they exist, they this is the current reason why hes not attending if i would interpret something. Uh i think he want xi jinping wants to show that g 20 is not the i would interpret something. Uh i think he want xi most important meeting anymore. And this is more meant against the western countries on bricks. He attended two weeks ago in johannesburg. Uh the western countries werent uh at, at the brick on the g 20 the western countries are part of it. So he wants to show a little bit. So its a little bit meant i think more meant against the west, especially against the usa. Thats a very important perspective. And yet we know that the g 20 is highly symbolic. Isha weve seen many reports on how big the g 20 summit has been promoted inside of india. How big a blow is xis absence for the host country . India is not reacting in a way that it is a blow and i completely agree with the host country . India is not reacting in a way lee. Uh the official statement that india has given is that this has got nothing to do with india. Uh the foreign minister is shankar and in fact, even the that this has got nothing to do with india. Uh indian she amit af khan, they have gone on record that this has got nothing to do with india. Uh and said that in the past also a lot of leaders have had to miss uh the summit because of and said that in the past also a lot of various reasons. Of course, this is the first time that china is missing. But of course, he is sending his representative and all the discussions, all the meetings will be done with the representative. So china is not missing, it representative and all the discussions, all the meetings will be is the leader that is missing. And uh very recently ja shankar even went on to say in an interview that um the countries he meant china and russia, they would know best why they are doing it. He signaled towards the west, he did not name west, he did not say us or europe or anyone, but he did towards the west, he did not name west, he did signal that this is probably chinas way of showing uh to the west that g 20 cant be all about the west because china as li said china was there for the bricks. China xi jinping has met Narendra Modi in bricks. So it does not look like it as of now that china is trying to block india when it comes to g 20. So if its not a blow to india, it certainly is for the platform. As we heard, van do you agree with that assessment . And if so, how much does it affect the possibility to actually find Common Ground in the summit . I agree with that assessment, but i would add that, i think one of the additional reasons might be that he just feels he should not leave china at the moment. The economy is in really poor shape. Plus there is some political turmoil at home that we may not even know about is in really poor shape. Plus there is some political i mean, theres certainly something going on, but you know details are sketchy. So i think in addition to all i mean, theres certainly something going on, but you know the other reasons, i think maybe he just feels its not a good moment to leave beijing. Um well, there are two putin and she are missing, right . So um in terms of finding Common Ground for the big challenges of our time, i do think that makes it more difficult, right . Because you have a big chunk of the represented of the World Population not represented in, in some ways. Um i still think, you know, you can probably achieve important, at least symbolically very important things, but its its not how it was meant to be. I think initially for sure. And the other important aspect is that this might leave the stage free for india to become the so called voice of the global south isha. Do you think this is among modis ambitions to become the bigger voice, at least in front of the west . Absolutely and uh india and espspecially modi and his team, theyve never shied away from saying that they want to be the big brother in the global south. In fact, um as i was mentioning the foreign minister very recently, he even went on to say that uh in the beginning of last year, we he mentioned india that we started using the term global south that was not being used for a very long time. And we made sure that we tell the world that there is a difference between the global north and the global south and the global north is actually where all the decisions are taken and global south is lagging behind. So we really went ahead north is actually where all the decisions are taken and and talked about it and now the whole world is talking about it. Now, the western countries are also thinking about the global south. So wherever possible, modi and his team, they are taking credit for everything good thats happening in the global south and that the countries of the global south are being pushed on the main stage except there is a gigantic powerhouse. On the way the g 20 represents a whopping 85 of the worlds economic power xi jinping didnt only turn his back on the west 20 represents a whopping 85 of the worlds economic power or joe biden, but also in a way on indias 20 represents a whopping 85 of the worlds economic power Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Lets have a look at the 20 represents a whopping 85 of the worlds economic power current state of the indo chinese relations, august in south africa, the brics summit where modi and xi jinping united against the domination of the west. But in the global south. Each lays claim to the status of economic superpower a rivalry with historic rules for decades. China and india have been fighting over territory in the himalayas. Xis latest provocation, a map that declares indian claimed territory as chinese the authoritarian leader. It has been expanding chinese dominance for years in the indian ocean too. His instrument of power the belt and road initiative, Narendra Modi, the hindu nationalist Prime Minister of the Worlds Largest democracy deals ruthlessly with political opponents and minorities. He is steering his country steeply upwards. There is no other place where the economy is growing as fast as in india most recently overtaking china for five quarters in a row. By the end of the decade, india could become the worlds Third Largest economy with a population that is larger and younger than chinas latest t triumph. Indias firt moon landing, bringing it in line with china is the balance of power shifting in indias favor. And im gonna throw that question directly to you venda. Is it shifting in favor of india . I do think theres a rebalancing of power mainly or certainly in big part because the chinese economy is not in good shape. And i dont think any, i dont think its going to recover any time soon. Youth unemployment is very shape. And i dont think any, i dont think its high. Theres that big property crisis and the property sector is so important in china. I think its responsible for a quarter of gdp and employs, you know, millions of people. So thats certainly, you know, that one economic power waning whilst india is actually doing really well. So, in that sense, there is certainly a rebalancing of power. Politically india is a democracy, albeit an imperfect one, but it is a democracy whereas china isnt. So again, india has an advantage. So, absolutely, i do think theres a, the balancing of power between those two incredibly important countries. And how do you think that is perceived on the other side, felix, do you think china sees india as a big rival as a threat . Maybe not so much, at least not yet because from the size of the economy even though india has surpassed on population. But on the size of the economy, china is still so much bigger than india and the chinese know it. And i totally size of the economy, china is still so much bigger agree china at the moment has huge economic problems and they will not disappear very soon. Whats new about china so far until recently, uh Economic Growth was the top number one priority on everything. We didnt know much about so far until recently, uh Economic Growth was the top how politics worked in china. But at least we could so far until recently, uh Economic Growth was the top somehow trust that Economic Growth is a very important target this has changed under xi jinping. And so somehow it is a little bit also taken into account to have less growth in china at the moment despite the problems with the property bubble, because china of course, is also less growth in china at the moment despite the problems suffering from the sanctions by the us Tech Technology sanctions and this is taken into account, china, we are talking about de risking decoupling from china and europe. China is already doing it. They want to decouple on especially they want to get less dependent on western technologies. And on the other hand, and that means for a short time this will reduce the Economic Growth because they are trying the other hand, and that means for a short time to develop their own technology. And this of course means the other hand, and that means for a short time for the meantime that it might hurt the economy. But felix, when we talk about technology, specifically, india has also banned Different Companies from china operating in their country. How do you think that plays into the equation . Its not banned Different Companies from china operating in their country. How on the on the agenda yet. I would say at least not on the top 10 agenda as a subject i think at the moment, india is also not seen as the main competitor, not yet, maybe in the future time, the main problem china has at the moment to deal, especially with the us, the trade war and all the technology sanctionsns thy do to each other. So this deal, especially with the us, the trade war and all is uh at the moment, the bigger uh topic or deal, especially with the us, the trade war and all the bigger issue in china, lets shift the perspective to india because from what were hearing, china does not really seem to see india as a big threat, but sometimes at least i have the perception that the rhetoric in india could be a little bit different. Talk us through how the perception is in the country in this image of india as a rising superpower, maybe well rising superpower and the next biggest thing that is something that is being sold a lot here. And that has also got to do with the elections that are coming up next year. Um and in fact hosting g 20 in delhi which is a very difficult task uh in a city such as delhi, that is also a sign that the Modi Government wanted to give to the people here that if we can do this, if we can manage this then um me and my government, we can actually take in their two places. So uh that is the the feeling right now. And uh india is also talking about uh becoming the third most important um economy in the next few years. Were talking about 2027 already. And um although there are a lot of studies that show that um even if india were to just grow as status quo, it would still reach number three by the end of the decade. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi made sure that he takes the credit wherever possible because as i said, its election next year and who would not want to take brownie points um when its possible. And uh as far as the rivalry with china is concerned, yes there is a very strong sentiment about rivalry with china and modi keeps pushing about this five trillion economy that we will reach the third position five trillion, the difference between india and china is still going to be huge because by the time india reaches five trillion, china would between india and china is still going to be huge have crossed 25 trillion. So thats still a major difference india would have the opportunity to say that we are right behind us and china, but yet india is still way behind us and china. So um as far as the feeling is concerned, yes, its there. But um india is not going to stand parallel with china. And maybe thats also a reason that i wanted to ask you here in the west. At least theres not this rhetoric of indndia being a big threat as we often hear it with china. Do you think thats because of the of indndia being a big threat as we often hear same reason that theyre not really equal, they are not really equal . And ii, i dont, i mean, i can see felixs point that, that china doesnt perceive india really as a threat but, but, but i do think there is a rivalry and, and, and, and your colleague in delhi mentioned that um and, and, and i do think china is taking this rival seriously. Ok, theres still a very different sort of proportion, but india has the advantage that its not, it doesnt have this very a complex hostile relationship with america, right . America wants to trade with india doesnt really want to trade with china. Thats another huge advantage india has at the moment. I mean, they may, they, they, they could spoil that still relatively cordial relationship. But i mean, there are lots of india has at the moment quite a lot of things going for for the country. However, um we were talking about that when we talk about china, we talk very differently about india in many parts of the world. Do you think theres sort of a double standard taking into consideration that Narendra Modi is also being criticized in many respects. We just saw it in the piece, the way minorities are treated, the way political opponents are treated. Uh is there a double standard in your opinion . No, its because there is a huge difference. I mean, uh yes, uh there a double standard in your opinion . No, its because there are also human rights problems uh india have but india is a functioning democracy and china is not and even are also human rights problems uh india have but india worse it uh we so far called it one party dictatorship. We must say now its a one person dictatorship so its a pure dictatorship. It has become a pure dictatorship. We must say now its a one person dictatorship dictatorship under xi jinping. And we sort of hope in the last 30 years. That of course, china is still authoritarian run by the communist party. But there was this hope and there were good reasons for this hope that china will also be more politically, be more open and more liberal, liberal. But this has totally, this hope has vanished under xi jinping, xi jinping has turned even the communist party into a one person leadership and this is a huge difference despite all the democratic problems india has but this is a huge difference from india and its not the only problem. There certainly is talk of a chinese downfall, china had shown the world how it is able to achieve record after record and Economic Performance. But those times seem long gone and problems are taking over highly qualified but jobless the case for one in five people under the age of 24 living in china. The record figure was published last spring. Authorities have since suspended release of the monthly statistics claiming they want to optimize the methodology. Many chinese have lost their lust for consumption all they can do is look on as the homes they saved up for arent completed. Property developers are getting into financial difficulties. The largest chinese Property Group ever grand they saved up for arent completed. Property developers are getting has the highest debt worldwide and over 300 billion. The they saved up for arent completed. Property developers are getting communist party doesnt appear to be delivering on its promise of growth and prosperity. Exports in july were down 14. 5 on the year before imports down 12. 4 measured in us dollars. Chinas official growth target of 5 by the end of 2023. Seems unfeasible is calling on people to exercise patience, promoting the virtue of hardship. He tells young people to eat bitterness is the chinese economic miracle grinding to a halt. And im throwing that question to you, felix is it running to halt . Yes. The problems are huge the property crisis, the property bubble has burst and this will take at least one decade to get over this the property crisis, the property bubble has burst and this and its also connected with another huge problem. China has a demographic problem. We know because of the one child policy, this will also hurt the chinese economy. But we shouldnt underestimate how powerful the Chinese Government also economically and financially is. So yes, china has this huge economic problems shouldnt underestimate how powerful the Chinese Government also economically and but china has also a lot of power to fight this. So i dont know if you can call it the hope or something that will china will become more this. So i dont know if you can call it modest more again. Yeah, ii i dont share this hope because chchina has become suh a powerful economy, it will be able to, china will be able to deal with at least the biggest problems china has. But can i be able to, china will be able to deal with just pick up on that . You mentioned that before . And its also very interesting that hes priority is not the economy anymore. Its his Foreign Policy ambitions. And you know if he has big successes or perceived from the chinese point of view, big success on the Foreign Policy front he will think you know that will appease the population and maybe paper over some economic hardships which are real and in particular for young people, i forgot the precise number but the young unemployed is Something Like 2025 . I and in particular for young people, i forgot the precise mean its very, very high and thats of course, terribly frustrating for these youngsters. Biden said china can become even more dangerous under xi jinping, when the economic problems are rising, that he is becoming in Foreign Policy and geopolitically even more dangerous. But doesnt that go hand in hand rising, that he is becoming in Foreign Policy and geopolitically the Economic Performance and the success in Foreign Policy. When we talk about what this all means for the rest of the world, we have to talk about the african countries, we have to talk about latin american countries. What happens if china doesnt have that power anymore . Sure, of course, i mean to some extent, china can have these grand ambition because its such a powerful economy, its already achieved that right . I mean, it it has risen to the second biggest economy in the world. What does it mean . I mean, you know, look at the belt and road initiatives, you know thats still going right . It may be stalling at the moment, but china is very influential in other parts of the world in africa, in particular all of that still remains true. So so im not saying by all means, you know that that we should all of that still remains true. So so im not we should discount china. But but i still think there all of that still remains true. So so im not is in india, an interesting rival that has appeared and will manifest itself increasingly in the next few years. A rival that however might not be immune to that chinese will manifest itself increasingly in the next few years. A power is when we talk about dependence on china. It is often said that china has the bigger power, especially with the disputes with india. Whats your perception on that mhm. Well, uh thats a difficult thing to say whether china has a bigger power. Uh, there are disputes between both the countries. There are border disputes, of course. And china has a bigger power. Uh, there are disputes between despite that both the countries are still trading partners with each other and they cant do without each other. And uh i agree with the, both, both the panelists, what each other and they cant do without each other. And theyve said so far. So, um india is not going to stop trading with china and neither is china going to close its doors for india. Um weve seen this new uh card, the map that has come up where china has shown territories that are disputed and they are part of china in the map. And india has shown concerns over it that it cant be done because its disputed territory. And despite that, none of them has stopped the channels. They are still talking whether xi jinping is coming to a g 20 or not. They are still the channels. They are still talking whether xi jinping is uh in talks and theyre also not clubbing together against the west, they have their own interest, but they are meeting each other in su they are meeting each other in a g 20. So its, its a strange amalgam that uh the global south is witnessing right now. The question of course, here would also be whether india is a true alternative to investments in china to trade with china even as a lender, felix. Whats your take on a true alternative to investments in china to trade with that for the rest of the world . Its always good not to focus on so much on china as the Germany Economy has done in the last two decades. So india should be more on the focus. It would be a good thing. The problem is chinas economy has become so important, especially for the germans and it will be very, very hard to switch to other regions. And its not that all we are talking about diversification to southeast asia, to latin america, to india. And its not that these markets are, we are all waiting for volkswagen, siemens and basf to come, they have developed also their own trade partners. So this will be a tough one for especially for the germans because it was so focused on china. But of course, in mid term or long term it is always good to have different partners and not to focus on especially a very unstable or politically, even dangerous country as china is because they often talk about values. Van do you think theres a true interest in actually following values when it comes to economic decisions . And would that benefit india . In this case . Um i think sometimes ceo s pay a little bit lip service to these values. Sure, in theory, there is, i mean, im sure if youd ask them, theyd say yes, of course we care deeply about human rights but often uh business and commercial considerations prevail. If you look at the figures germanys german Business Investment in china has not really gone down. Even though you know, theres the new the governments germanys german Business Investment in china has not really gone china strategy, the government is really encouraging German Companies to diversify. But some of the biggest dax companies have are making huge investments in china. You mentioned sf theres volkswagen you know it and its partly because the Chinese Markets remains very attractive and and theres not an obvious at the moment, not an obvious country that can replace it at least not in the short term in the longer term. Probably. Yes. But in the short term, i think at least not in the short term in the longer its very difficult road ahead. We have time for one last quick question. I would like to start with you felix in a multi polar world. Will india be one of the polls . Yes, definitely. And what we have seen uh two weeks ago at the bricks is a big turning point for us, especially for the western countries because there we have seen brics 15 years ago, didnt really exist. And now it has become a very important gathering and we are not talking only about the six or five countries which joined the brics. Plus we are talking about 40 other countries who want to join the brics and this should be an alarm sign for the western countries that they have, that they havent opened up the existing international institution. And this would be only fair and an important step now that the western country should open this. So not so that all these countries are not only focus andg yeah, well see how that plays out. Thats all we have time for. Thank you very much to all three of our guests and especially to you for watching. Remember you can watch this and