They will most likely still lose i polling is any indication, we dont know. They could lose by a historic margin to a front runner, who, lets be, clear has spent more time in court attending His Civil Fraud Trial this week than he has in the state of iowa. Even if now it feels inevitable weve come to this, it was not inevitable. It really wasnt. There was a time in winter 2020, one after january 6th, when donald trump was being impeached for inciting the capitol insurrection, his Approval Rating hit an alltime. Low it looked like very well be sent to do a period of political exile. Then he came back, the 2022 midterms, the elections worked out poorly for most trump endorsed candidates. He backed losers in a ton of winnable races and there seemed to be a daunting wherein us in the Republican Party that he was politically toxic. In 2024 could be a wide open race for republicans. All those folks gotta because if i was beautiful. Not now. Trump is polling at 54 , or 30 points ahead of haley. His closest challenger, not even close enough to say its not even close. The only poll that matters is the one on election day, as we like to say here. But there is already a lot of discussion about sort of how we got here. On the threshold of this moment. And there is a lot of factors that have brought us to this point in which trump is leading by 30 or 40 points. There is the terrible, i mean truly almost historically terrible campaign of ron desantis, who once looked like a formidable challenger. There is the growing desire in the republican electorate for authoritarian politics. That is fueled by this ever sort of radicalizing conservative media industry. There is, of course, the complete personal cowardice of republican leaders, who could have voted to convict trump during impeachment and we wouldnt have this problem. It would also have brought interference to trump all along. All those factors are here. But one factor on the eve of this first contest, there is one factor i think does not get enough play. That is the tools of the coercion, the threats of, violence trump and maga movements employ that are constantly shaping the space in which the race is itself contested. I talked yesterday about this, the bomb threat at the home of the judge in trumps civil trial, and how it was not an isolated incident. It wasnt just business as usual. From the maga bomber to the cincinnati fbi shooter, remember that . A guy showed up at the fbi after indictments, the death threats, the fake Emergency Calls against investigators and prosecutors in the past week. Judges, election officials. There has just been a constant stream of threats of violence and actual attempts of violence against people that have tried to hold donald trump to account. The intimidation hangs over all his endeavors, its a big part of his strength. But the place where this kind of politics is the most effective, the most acutely present is within Republican Party circles. For people who exist in that world, inside the Republican Party, inside professional politics, harassment and threat of violence is much more intimate. There were members who told me that they were afraid for their own security, afraid in some instances for their lives. I have colleagues now traveling with armed escorts out of fear for their safety. Many of us are altering our routines, working to get body armor, our expectation is someone may try to kill us. The threats are constant. And they have increased. I even heard a voice mail this morning that we got last night threatening execution. That seems to be the normal thing nowadays. Just threaten execution. Again, that all happened. Not a long time ago. Its regrettably easy to forget how the republicans who voted to impeach or convict trump were, they thought at least, and i think credibly kind of putting their lives at. Risk at least their Family Safety and themselves. Certainly there Peace Of Mind was put at risk. Do you remember this . We learned this a few months ago. Senator mitt romney revealed he had to spend 5,000 a day on protective services, security after january 6th. In fact, as he later revealed to in a biography of romney, one republican congressman confided to romney he wanted to vote for trumps second impeachment but chose notoet out of fear for his familys safety. When one senator, a member of leadership, said he was leading towards voting to convict, the others urged him to reconsider, you cant do, that romney caught someone saying. Think of your personal safety, think another. Think of your children. The senator eventually decided they were right. This extends past people that are at the upper echelons of political power, past politicians or Public Officials. More than just and they have been subjected to this. Election officials and even rioters, just people with opinions, Conservative Writer and trump critic david french has recounted how they went after him. In individual calls, i say im sorry but ive been asked by the Trump Campaign to make sure that david knows that this would be really bad for him. The assault on my family have been overwhelming just as a writer. I have a multi racial family. And so they have gone after my youngest daughter in the worst way imaginable. That was back in 2016. Today, french, who are still a conservative, strongly and staunchly conservative and also anti trump, wrote in the New York Times things are even worse. Quote, eight years of bitter experience have taught us that supporting trump degrades the character of the quarter. Never before have i seen extremism penetrate a vast American Communities so deeply, so completely, and so comprehensively. Im going to tell, you this is all stuff that is sort of on the record undocumented. For every example of, this there is stuff and not on the record. People discuss about their security decisions, which they can talk about publicly, for obvious reasons, anytime they are in the crosshairs, they are dealing with a security issue. This is particularly true for people whose lifes constituents or conservatives and neighbors who are trump devotee, so this extremism, this acceptance of coercion, Political Violence to the threat thereof of terror, of just insane harassment as a tactic. It is really powerful. I think it is fair to say, i really believe this, and that it is completely subverted the ability of the Republican Party themselves to genuinely run a free and Fair Election within their own party to choose their own nominee. Because not only is there this everpresent threat, you know, everyone in the upper echelons of the party also understands that donald trump will never accept defeat. You are having a contest with a guy who is he going to accept a feat . They understand it because of january, six but they understand it before. That they understand it be because of 2016. When trump lost the Iowa Caucuses and reportedly pressured State Republicans to invalidate the results. Does that sound familiar . He ran around afterwards saying it was rigged. Take a second to imagine what it would look like if nikki haley or someone else actually were to start beating donald trump for the nomination this year. If we started seeing some surprises, right . That has happened before in american politics. It is almost impossible not to imagine a situation in which you end up with a scene that looks like january 6th outside the Republican National convention. Right . If trump starts losing, what is going to happen . Play that out. They all have, they all understand what they are dealing with. Its under those conditions. Those are the conditions under which we are having this contest, this election for the republican nominee. Whatever happens on monday in iowa and later in New Hampshire and South Carolina and super tuesday, you just cannot separate trumps performance from these everpresent, deeply ominous, antidemocratic threats of harassment and violence. It is just a central part of what donald trump stands for and how he and his movement pursue political power. Miles taylor served in the Trump Administration as a National Security official. He resigned in june of 2019, since left the Republican Party. Hes the author of blowback, a warning to save democracy from the next trump. He joins me now. Miles, i want to talk to someone who is from the world of conservative and republican politics, because every time ive talked to folks in that world who themselves have come out against trump or post trump, the stories they tell me about the proximity of this kind of, you, know it is one thing if people are mean to you or say nasty things to you. That is just life. But something more than that. The stories ive heard are pretty chilling. I wonder what you think about the general thesis, this kind of a invisible force really does exert some real pressure on the sort of basic shape of this contest. Of course it does. I remember something alex vindman once told me after his testimony. When we are comparing notes about how he wished more people had testified in trumps impeachment, he said, miles, intimidation works. And he is right. It works. And they know it works. Trump knows it works. I was really struck by something, chris, in your opening remarks tonight about how a lot of these votes are facing threats. And they dont talk about it on the record. Anwhen i talk to a lot of people whove been in these circumstances and they dont even go into the detail of how serious it is. I think it is important, though, when people are willing to share those things. I will give you an example, chris. Just last weekend, i had to buy another gun. Because we are worried about threats from maga stalkers and concerned we have not armed ourselves sufficiently in every circumstance we might be in. And that is years after i came forward against donald trump. And it is still happening. Why . Because they are so fearful of this messaging from conservatives against him. They are worried it will deny him victory. But more so than that, chris, weve seen trump repost videos, these messianic videos, where in the videos people claim he is our savior. Thats how he has radicalized supporters. Do you think they are defending some kind of messiah. That is beyond what people do when it comes to backing their political candidates. And it explains again this messianic level of violence people are worried about. And certainly. People within the party have opposed trump feel bubbling just under the surface. To the point about your personal experience was just striking, it sounds awful. And that sort of intimidation works. I do think it is the most effective in this sort of internal discipline function. If you look at judge chutkan or jazz smith or judge engoron, all these, people i dont think they will be intimidated. What it is is its a hassle for them. It is disruptive, bad for their families. But its not going to stop them from doing what they are doing. I think there are people in republican politics where it will. I think the romney point about, it i think that again, i dont want to take away from the fact that trump genuinely has this organic, this real appeal. I think he would be probably winning even without this aspect of his politics. But again, this aspect of the politics colors enough that, like, i just think it is difficult to disentangle his ability to reclaim his position as front runner from that force that is sort of just offstage. Chris, it doesnt stop people from coming forward. I agree with your point and that folks whove already come out, there they are out there. But ive had folks in the backyard sitting around the bonfire that were senior trump officials, who have not come forward, who have said, i just dont know if i want to go through what you guys have gone through. It works. The intimidation works. Unfortunately, because of donald trump, this is going to be a historic election, chris. But for all the wrong reasons. Historic because the Political Polarization is at historic levels. The disinformation is at historic levels. The attitudes towards Political Violence, as you pointed out, are at historic levels. The volume of threats from Extremist Groups around the country are at historic levels. And we are also seeing direct threats to Public Officials and absolutely historic levels. I can backup every single one of those things with statistics. This is an unprecedented election in terms of the fear and division and violence. I would agree with you. I worry it could boil over should donald trump not get what he wants. We already have precedent for. That and we are seeing an intimidation bubble up within the Republican Party. Today i saw videos of ron desantis being mercilessly mocked and stop all the way up, almost to his hotel room in iowa and it wasnt by democratic operatives. It was by trump operatives and pro trump operatives who seemed to almost want to walk into his hotel room with him. That is pretty menacing behavior. We havent seen things like that in american elections before. We are going to see what the voters say about, at least the voters, the small percentage of islands that participate in the republican caucus, which is a very, very small number of people in the absolute terms. But we will see what they have to say. Miles taylor, thank you for making time tonight. Primetime weekend continues ahead, with lawrence odonnell. Ith wrlaence odonnell christina wanna know the secret ingredient to running my business . tina her. christina being all over, all at once. tina all the time. christina but my old network wasnt cutting it. And thats not good for baking. Or judging. Or writing. So, we switched to verizon, the Network Businesses rely on. With Verizon Business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. So, no matter what, im running this kitchen. vo make the switch. Its your business. Its your verizon. Jordans sore nose let out a fiery sneeze, so dad grabbed puffs plus lotion to soothe her with ease. 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Section three of the 14th Amendment says, no person shall be a senator or representative in congress, or elector of president and Vice President , or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States comp, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But congress may, by a vote of two thirds of each house, remove such disability. Former federal Appeals Court judge michael luttig, who was appointed to the court by republican president george h. W. Bush, believes Section Three couldnt be any clearer. The Supreme Court is not wrong to decide this case. 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