January 25, 2021:
Iran, frustrated by Israeli air strikes and some commando raids, have backed off on their efforts to establish a clearly “Iranian” presence on the Israeli border. Instead, the Iranians are playing a long game and attempting to gain the support of the largely Sunni and Druze civilian population along the border in (from west to east); Quneitra, Daraa and Suwayda provinces. Total population of these provinces in 2011 was 1.4 million but only about 20 percent of that was on or near the border. After the 2011 Civil War began much of the Sunni population fled. How much remains on the border is unclear but is apparently at least 100,000. Only Queneitra and Daraa border Israel. Israel has occupied most of Queneitra province since the 1967 War and the Israeli controlled area is mostly the Golan Heights. This is the high ground overlooking northern Israel where the Syrians made a major, desperate and ultimately failed effort in the 1973 War to retake Golan. Since then, the Assads have maintained that they will eventually get the Golan back and the Iranians tell Assad that this will happen because of the current Iranian effort. This does not please the Assads because the Iranian plan includes turning the border area into something similar to southern Lebanon, where the Iran-backed Hezbollah controls the population and the border. There is a token presence of Lebanese troops along that border but it is understood by Israel and the Lebanese government that Hezbollah controls southern Lebanon, and Iran controls Hezbollah. The Assads would prefer to control their own southern border but the Iranians have made it clear that there is no choice and if there is any interference by the Assads the Iranians will put a new government in power.