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Reason people i think are hurt is because we got a little bit inflated with these polls. >> all right. guys. thanks very much. let's get a key race alert right now. arizona, a key battleground state, 11 electoral votes. 79% of the estimated vote in arizona is now in. joe biden maintains his lead, 163,000 vote lead over donald trump. 52.6% to 46.1%. biden is still ahead in arizona with 79% of the vote in, john. we're watching arizona very, very closely. that would be a switch. >> that would be a switch. so, let's start from where we are on the map. it's going to take a minute, but let's build u...

Electoral vote, cnn projects joe biden will win that second congressional district in nebraska. the last time that happened was in 2008 for a democrat. one electoral vote that biden will win in that second congressional district in nebraska. the other 4 out of 5 electoral votes in nebraska, donald trump, the president, will win. he will win 4 electoral votes out of nebraska. joe biden will take one. where it stands right now, look how close it is. biden has 220 electoral votes. trump has 210 electoral votes. 270 of course the magic number needed to win the presidency. let's get a key race aler...

Zbli? >> i think that's reasonable. prufrp is probably 47%. he won his first term with 46.1% and losing the popular vote by 2.1. the reality for democrats is they're only continuing to add support in california which is utterly useless to them. they're continuing to cut the margin in texas, but probably not by enough to make it a key tipping point state in 2020. if i really to narrow it down, i would continue to say that the two most valuable states, the two closest to the tipping point are wisconsin and arizona. joe, i was in wisconsin last week talking to a lot of dairy farmers in green bay....

Get up to for you to start saying, okay, now democrats are in the game? does it need to be 51%, 52%? >> i think that's reasonable, 51%, 52%. president trump's win number is probably 47% in my estimation. keep in mind he won his first term with 46.1% and losing the popular vote by 2.1%. the reality for democrats is they're only continuing to add support in california, which is utterly useless to them. they're continuing to cut the margin in texas but probably not by enough to make it a key tipping point state in 2020. if i really had to narrow it down, i would continue to say that the two most ...

Gal vinnize the people who really like him while also trying to paint the democrats as extremely far to the left so people who are on the fence about the president would back away from thinking about voting for any democrat and maybe hold their nose and vote for him again. that's the strategy we're seeing. >> he's trying to make the democratic party party be represented by the four women he went after. is this prying us apart into groups, does that work? >> if you look at the last election, trump got 46.1% and was able to win. romney lost with 42%. if trump got every vote that he got last time...