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The president promised change but it can't be measured in speeches. it's measured in achievement. >> president obama today in wisconsin. the campaigning continues. national polls stand at this tonight -- president obama 48.8%. governor romney 48.1%. the polls have been tied. ohio, real clear politics average. we talked about ohio, the average of the most recent polls there and the president holding roughly a three-point lead over governor romney. let's bring in the panel. steve hayes for the "weekly standard." kirsten powers columnist for the daily beast. brit hume, and "fox news sunday" host ...

Each. this can be six points apart. >> it could be even bigger. the nbc "wall street journal" poll had nine point advantage in democrats in the poll. that is bigger than 80. 12 will be democratic year than 2008. >> bret: for romney to win tuesday, polls have to be wrong. >> some have to be wrong a little because the vase that close. the national polls in the last, in the last week, 23 polls,be if you average them together. 48.3 for romney. 48.1 for obama. as of 10:00 this morning. so it's dead especially. knife's edge, exciting outcome. >> bret: we said. we want no tossup. joe, first. predicti...

Of them showing the president leading. in the face of that, the sea of blue, why does the romney campaign see that they're going to win in the face of that. >> they're looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. i think that's at the real danger point. if you're at 49 or 50, that's a very different deal. at that 47 or 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. >> do you think that? >> i think there's a chance. i wouldn't be surprised. i think with my head, i look at...

Is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. i think that's at the real danger point. if you're at 49 or 50, that's a very different deal. at that 47 or 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. >> do you think that? >> i think there's a chance. i wouldn't be surprised. i think with my head, i look at all the polls, i look at the totality of the polls, and it's clear in the totality of the polling the president has the lead. i also know if that lead is at 47, 48, it's a race, anything could happen going into election day. this is as close a pr...

Seeing the leaks about paul ryan's future in this we didn't want you, we want ed when you look at the swing state polls overall, why does the romney campaign see that they are going to win even in the face of that? >> they are looking at two things. they are looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. and i think that's at the real danger point. if you're at 49, you're at 50, it's a very different -- that's a very different deal. at that 47, 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for the...