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>> bret: beautiful downtown portsmouth, new hampshire. as we already told you, we're in rockingham county. to get a sense of what voters in this crucial area are saying, the real clear politics average says they're virtually split down the middle in the state of new hampshire. president obama is at 48%, mitt romney is at 47.3. one of the benefits of hitting the road every so often is to look people in the eye and listen to what they're concerned about and learn what will make them pull the lever for one candidate over the other. >> nicole oka and dawn are relatively new moms with a lot to talk...

And, florida. obviously, those three states are critical to the -- any victory, either side. and we think we can win all three of those and win those three states plus ohio and, wisconsin and, missouri, which we won last time and we have over 270 electoral votes and they've got to basically take something out of the mix and take north carolina, florida, ohio, out of the mix and it is hard to get to 270 but i think, we are well positioned at this point. >> bill: this is a battle ground state and a lot of folks before 2008 would not consider it that way. look at the other battleground states now...

Groaning and romney's strategy, but at least for today, it doesn't seem so bad. but, it's entirely possible that obama will manage to survive what the first president bush couldn't. why? just look where obama's approval rating sits now. 47.3%. compare it to where bush was at this point in 1992. 34% in a cbs news new york times poll from june of that year. this tells us that obama is getting the benefit of the doubt. he's personally popular, but the big one is this. people still remember when, where and how this economic mess started. it's why polls continue to show that voters are more likely ...

Problems there, jon, there is no question about it. you know, it is interesting even john kerry did better in many of those blue-collar counties than barack obama did. of course obama carried ohio fairly handily and carry kerry lost ohio. that is why he lost the 2004 election. president obama has an enduring problem with many of these blue-collar workers in ohio and elsewhere. jon: let me start with the ohio, "real clear politics" average of the polls. i'm going to show ohio first. i hope i'm taking these a little bit out of our intended order. in ohio, according to "real clear politics" avera...

Washington post" says it is nearly impossible for anyone else to capture the republican presidential nomination. is that a fact? >> let's look at the numbers. there have been 743 delegates awarded thus far in the contest. there are 1,543 more yet to go. romney to secure the nomination which takes 1,144 delegates. romney would need to win 47.3% of the delegates. and forum 62.7%. romney is winning 56% of the delegates. santorum 24% and speaker