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Is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. i think that's at the real danger point. if you're at 49 or 50, that's a very different deal. at that 47 or 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. >> do you think that? >> i think there's a chance. i wouldn't be surprised. i think with my head, i look at all the polls, i look at the totality of the polls, and it's clear in the totality of the polling the president has the lead. i also know if that lead is at 47, 48, it's a race, anything could happen going into election day. this is as close a pr...

Seeing the leaks about paul ryan's future in this we didn't want you, we want ed when you look at the swing state polls overall, why does the romney campaign see that they are going to win even in the face of that? >> they are looking at two things. they are looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. and i think that's at the real danger point. if you're at 49, you're at 50, it's a very different -- that's a very different deal. at that 47, 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for the...

Romney. >> let's divorce the national polls from the other polls. romney leads in 7 obama leads in five. 11 are tied tied. romney leads 50 percent or more in one of them obama leads with 50 percent or more in one of them. the average 48.2 for romney 48.0 for obama. see what the gallup says tomorrow. it has been out of commission since sandy hit the east coast. they will finish the polling tonight release it tomorrow. see what the mriekly voter number says among gallup. the last we saw was four points 51-47. we will see where that is. >> you think sandy had an impact. we will find out in the ga...

Take "wall street journal" and nbc policy if ohio there was a six-point lead for obama but nine more points for democrats than republicans meaning turn out for democrats is more enthusiastic than 2008. but the national polls, the average which is of ten polls, take 22 polls conducted as of midnight last night, romney leads in 12, and obama leads in four and tied in six and romney is at or above 50 percent and obama won and the average of them? 48.2 to 47.5 so that is a sense of a strength for romney that could be expressed particularly against an incumbent. incumbent gets not were more than th...

Today, of course, it is windy and rainy and rick leventhal is there for us tonight. how are things looking? >> we're getting a stinging sideways rain here, shepard right now. wind speeds roughly 30 to 35 miles per hour steady. we're getting tropical storm force gusts of 39 and higher. clocked one at 48.2 within the last half hour oso. take a look out at dolphin island bay with the white caps and water smacking up against this concrete dock here. riding waves along the side of the dock. right up over our feet. keep in mind, this is low tide or low tide is about two hours away. so, tomorrow morn...