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>> well, last time virginia was the closest to president obama's national average. nationally, he got 52.9% of the vote. virginia, he got 52.6%. so virginia is increasingly seen as a fulcrum in the national election. doesn't have to turn out the same way this time, obviously, but virginia is a prize that both sides want, and there's a good reason. it's actually very, very close. much closer than some of the national polls have suggested. >> larry, how has the state changed politically and/or demographically over the past four years? >> well, you've added a percent minority to virginia's popula...

The votes and mitt romney with 46.7% of the votes. kyle conduct is a little end of analyst. it is the state where you live in virginia. what is virginia leaning towards this time? >> i think it is basically a total tie this time. one thing that is interesting is that in virginia in 2008, obama got 52.9%. nationally he got 52.6. that was the state closest to the national average. you figure that obama will probably do a little bit worse this time if he wins. that's why it could be the key state in the selection. jon: one of the quandaries for republicans is in that some of the these states that...

Ron paul campaign and delegations are speaking positively about the process but it are folks on the perimeter who could make some noise and they figure they can get it out of way because it's a lengthy process and leave open the big-time production value of the big night with the big speakers later in the week. >> bret: we'll bring the rain slickers down to tampa. okay. i guess you said yes. >> and the big boots. >> bret: c'ya. sick analysis that has correctly picked the winner of every presidential election since 1980 is forecasting a victory for mitt romney. the university of colorado's mode...

You have mixed roars, i think. i don't know if it is a national trend. i think it would be good for the country if it were. >> in colorado, ab, president obama carried the state. 52.9 percent. over john mccain. is seen as a swing state and an indication in colorado that raising tax issue is not selling . yet that is what the president is talking about when he travels the country. >> that is true, i don't think that the people who raise 53 percent of them who voted against raising taxes to improve public education in colorado don't want public education to be improved. i don't think so they are...

Jpmorgan speaking from tokyo. well the tsunami and earthquake's effects are far from over. many fell to its lowest levt level in nearly a decade. we want to show you pmi, purchasing manager's index there. the pmi fell to 46.4 down from 52.9 in the previous month. anything below 50 indicates contraction. carmakers have been hit especially hard. carmakers like toyota. toyota is the world's biggest carmaker and it had to stop production at more than a dozen of its assembly plants in japan. it only gradually began to resume production this past monday. and then honda, they plan to resume limited...