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>> this is in the state of ohio, a lot of people think that's where this race will be won. how close is it according to polls you're looking at? our last nbc poll had it five points. is it closer than that? >> that's probably about right. the romney folks will tell you that obama, the president, has an edge there. and here's something important to remember. there's been a lot of republican possibly irrational exuberance with the surge that mitt romney has seen in the polls. but here's a problem. mitt romney has not put away a single one of the most crucial states. and you get to be president b...

It's not going to pass. but it's going to keep the issue there on the fore. >> we're going to move on to the next big topic, swing states. chuck todd played out some electoral map scenarios on "the daily rundown." without florida, new hampshire, mitt romney could win both iowa and new hampshire. win ohio, florida and north carolina and because of hispanics -- that's specially what's going on here, he would be seven electoral votes short. that is a map problem like nobody's business. >> a math problem like nobody's business. what's the strategy for romney to win these crucial swing states, espe...

Year. you know how it works. 538 electoral votes and it takes 270 to win the election. there are multiple paths for romney and president obama. it may not run through florida and ohio. let's take a look at where we are at. we have a great touch screen going on. this is where we have the battleground map now. the states in gray are the toss ups. nevada, colorado, pennsylvania, new hampshire. we know a few others are in play. wisconsin is leaning to obama, michigan, too. this is where we think sit now. this is the first scenario that gives you an insight as to why romney may have a map problem w...

Look at this. if you take swing states and assume the hispanic sweep here, if you will, out west and give pennsylvania, which has gone democrat since 1988, look at what's in gray. 262. he needs eight. florida, north carolina, virginia and ohio. of the four, virginia is probably the state that the obama campaign feels the best about because it's a growing state. they have a large african-american population. without ohio, without florida, without new hampshire, mind you, mitt romney could win iowa and new hampshire, win ohio, win florida, win north carolina. and because of his panics, that's wh...

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