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Military operation about to be launched? >> anderson, we don't have people on the ground. our embassy has been closed for, you know, have a very long time now. so we don't have any eyes or ears on a very complex and rapidly changing situation. but beyond that, i'm not sure we've ever understand syria very well. 1982 very few americans understand the significance of that, no syrian will ever forget it -- >> that's when thousands were killed by bashar al-assad's father. >> that's correct, upwards of 10,000 innocent civilians as he went after the syrian muslim brotherhood by destroying the center...

Possible word and they will dance in the streets. >> do you really believe a political solution that negotiations are possible at this stage given all that's happened and the nature of the regime and opposition at this point? >> it is difficult to see. that's why i'm saying hopes are really small. this is what i'm saying. it is the only hope. air strikes will not give us anything. the only thing we can just see right now is the americans talk to the russians, find some solution, compromises from both sides and then come out with a solution. i know the regime will hate, hate peace. it lives on ...

Going to be a fragmentation of syria. the breakup into different, smaller states, which i think will be catastrophic and something that we will be reeling from for decades to come. but the longer it goes on, the nastier it gets. the more complicated it gets. but at the same time, anybody that is saying that the bashar regime has weeks to live, really doesn't know the reality on the ground. they still have capability. so, i give them a strong showing, at least for the first half of 2013. >> how much jihadi penetration into syria do you sense? >> well, al qaeda is established in syria. they have...

Of foreign fighters as a terrorist organization. listen. >> resistance movement against the bashar regime. it's tears organization. we have seen no them which indicates they would be terrorists. we believe they will leave the country following the defeat of the regime. >> of course, u.s. officials say in this group is linked to al qaeda and they would probably think it very fanciful to think that those particular fighters at the end of the assad regime would say you are welcome and simply go home. >> shepard: some refugees from this crisis in syria. new concerns about not just how many of them...

And this source told me that he sees the syrian government as wobbling. that was something i was not expecting. he sees the syrian government as much weaker than it has been, even in the last few weeks with some defections going on, with the syrian government not fully in control of these road militias. not fully in control of all of its units. this western official saw that there are -- this western diplomatic source saw that there were numerous gunfights taking place regularly in demas kus, a couple of miles away from the presidential compound, all indicators that while the bashar regime con...