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Owa caucus. so think they would love to beat santorum, but if santorum beats them, they're still in the top two and there's great clarity. there's no way romney comes t of here loser if he's in the top two. now he knows who his opponent is going to be in new hampshire, which is not social conservative territory at all, and will roll the process out. i think the romney people would ke a win. i'm not sure they need one. >> part of that analysis is hey, santorum's good for us, we keep it expanded, take thatield to south carolina, he'll go after rick perryf perry can stay in the race, bet are for ...

Proving his conservative credentials. to say you'rnot going to end this early. you've goto go out there and earn the conservative vote. >> matt, what about turnout? because this is a big key. bigger turnout, presumably better for romney because a lot of strategists i've talked to say thoseou bemoderates those could be independents. en democrats, who come out and say, no, we don't want a santorum, a bachmann, or paul doing that well, we don't want to present iowa that way. we want to go with romney. >> one thing you see, in 2008 we ha a record turnout wth just under 120,000 iowa republicans. an...

Here in iowa, former two-term senator from pennsylvania, rick saorum. >> santorum has spent more time in iowa this cycle than any other candidate and was the first to visit l 99 counties in the state. with limited resources and moneyae staff he's been traveling fromevent to eventn a pickup truck. earlier is week, a cnn/"time" poll showed him forhe first time in the top three. now he's suddenly turning out larger cros and drawing more media atteion. so he could make a strong showing in iowa by courting conservative voters like previous winner mike hkabee did four years ago. senator santorum, we...

Neverose in the long run and maybe even the medium run to santorum or paul. gingrich and perry represent bigger treats for them. and i think the worst case for romney is if one of those two guys surgn the last few days. no indication that will happen. t they're both out there working hard. >> andrea mitchell, you' been out here reporting. what are you seeing? >> well, the crowds are mu smaller th you'd expect. smaller than the huckabee crowds were four years ago. but there's that evangelical core. when we talk about organization, and enthusiasm, they're going to come out. and i think that as m...

Chairman of the rty herein the state. and this is important. this is the first voting in the presidential campaign. what's the mind-set o an iowa republican going in to this caucus? > well, i think the other y take awy, not just in the nbc/marist poll but in the "des moines register" poll is two in five voters could change their mind between caucus day. it's moved from three out of five which it was just a couple weeks ago. i think that's the juxtaposition between the desire to beat barack obama t also making sure we have a minee that c addressively articulate th republican, principle, conserv...