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Hong Kong Stocks Fall as Asia Enters Holiday Mode: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- European futures slipped, as investors remained cautious ahead of US inflation data and Asia settled into holiday mode for the Lunar New Year. US stock-index futures inched lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, though was still on track for its third weekly gain amid a flurry of stimulus announcements as China attempted to stem an equity market slump. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and a measure of Chinese equities in Hong Kong dropped ahead of early closures, though both gauges are higher for the week thanks to a big gain on Tuesday on optimism around state support. “What we need in China in terms of catalysts is a large coordinated fiscal easing targeting demand,” Florian Neto, head of Asia multi-asset at Amundi Hong Kong Ltd., said on Bloomberg Television. “What we have is market stabilization, but it’s not tackling the fundamental issues in the Chinese economy.” Markets were shut for the holiday in mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the World Australian equities were little changed and Japanese stocks were mixed, with the weaker yen offering some support. The currency steadied after slipping 0.8% against the greenback on Thursday, in the wake of comments from a Bank of Japan deputy governor suggesting the central bank will be in no rush to shift its easy policy settings. An index of the dollar was steady ahead of the annual revisions to monthly US inflation data, after last year’s adjustments cast doubt on the Federal Reserve’s progress in taming consumer prices. “CPI revisions could throw cold water on the recent good inflation numbers — but this is a wonky number,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “We think the next move comes off the CPI number next Tuesday.” Japan-listed SoftBank Group Corp. rallied 8.7% after exceeding net income forecasts in its latest quarterly results, and from further gains for Arm Holdings Plc, in which it owns a stake. Nissan shares slid 12% after the company missed profit estimates. Listen to the Big Take podcast on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Read the transcript here. New Zealand yields and the currency climbed after ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. forecast that the central bank will raise interest rates twice more this year. Treasuries were little changed in Asian trading after a decline on Thursday. Selling came even after the US government sold $25 billion in 30-year bonds at a lower-than-expected yield, in a sign of healthy demand. The 10-year yield rose three basis points Thursday and has added 13 basis points this week as investors adjust interest rate forecasts on strong economic data and comments from central bank policymakers. Bitcoin’s Advance Bitcoin reached a one-month high above $46,000. “Analyzing 10-day returns after the Lunar New Year, Bitcoin has only experienced negative returns twice since 2011 and none since 2014, boasting an average return of over 10%,” said Sean Farrell, head of digital-asset strategy at Fundstrat, in a note Thursday. Key events this week: US CPI revisions, Friday Germany CPI, Friday President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:20 a.m. London time Hang Seng futures fell 1.1% Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) were little changed S&P/ASX 200 futures were unchanged Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.0771 The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.40 per dollar The offshore yuan was unchanged at 7.2135 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6497 The British pound was unchanged at $1.2617 Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $46,190.96 Ether rose 1% to $2,449.48 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.15% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 0.720% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.13% Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed Spot gold was little changed This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi. ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

China , Hong-kong , Tokyo , Japan , Beijing , Taiwan , Texas , United-states , South-korea , Philippines , Australia , Singapore

Stocks, Bonds Steady Ahead of US CPI Revision Data: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Global markets were treading water on Friday before the release of US inflation data that could shift the narrative of the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. The US is expected to release its annual revisions to its consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Last year, the update was significant enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress and traders were speculating again that the recalculations might sway views over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. “This could have important implications for the Fed,” wrote analysts at Rabobank in a research note. “It could increase or decrease the confidence that the FOMC has in a sustainable return to 2% inflation.” Europe’s Stoxx 600 and US stock-index futures were little changed. Ten-year Treasuries held steady, leaving their yield up about 15 basis points in the past five days. The next key data point will be the regular US inflation print due Tuesday. L’Oreal shares tumbled 7% as Chinese shoppers reined in travel spending, while Tesco Plc advanced after Barclays Plc said it will acquire much of the supermarket chain’s banking business. Bond traders have spent the week juggling a string of well-received US debt sales against cautious language on rate cuts from central bank policy makers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pushback on a March reduction has left the bond market in limbo —- encouraging derivative trades that bet on a dip in bond market volatility. In stocks, the S&P 500 briefly hit 5,000 for the first time on Thursday before closing little changed. US equities have posted only one weekly drop since late October and the gauge has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic-low — driven by expectations for a soft economic landing and optimism about the impact of artificial-intelligence. “The equity market is responding to the positive data story and quite incredibly continues to march on,” said Charles Diebel, at Mediolanum International. “If growth holds up and there is a soft or no landing, that’s good for equities. And if something bad happens, the Fed will cut rates.” According to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett, the rally is getting close to triggering sell signals. The bank’s custom bull-and-bear indicator is nearing a reading that could be interpreted as a contrarian signal to sell, he said. Listen to the Big Take podcast on iHeart, Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Read the transcript here. In Asia, markets were shut for the Lunar New year holidays in mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The Japanese yen steadied after slipping 0.8% against the greenback on Thursday, in the wake of comments from a Bank of Japan deputy governor suggesting the central bank will be in no rush to shift its easy policy settings. Corporate Highlights: Barclays agreed to buy Tesco’s retail banking unit, which includes credit cards, unsecured personal loans, deposits and the operating infrastructure, according to a statement. Hermes sales surged at the end of last year as the Birkin bag maker weathered the slowdown in demand for luxury goods with its unique model driven by scarcity. Grab Holdings Ltd. and GoTo Group, Southeast Asia’s biggest ride-hailing companies, have restarted talks for a merger, a potential blockbuster combination aimed at staunching years of losses at both companies resulting from tough competition between the two. Key events this week: US CPI revisions, Friday Germany CPI, Friday President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% as of 10:16 a.m. London time S&P 500 futures were little changed Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.3% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0763 The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.41 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2151 per dollar The British pound was little changed at $1.2606 Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $46,646.17 Ether rose 1.8% to $2,468.27 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.17% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.36% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.05% Commodities Brent crude rose 0.1% to $81.72 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,031.27 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi, Divya Patil, Richard Henderson and Sujata Rao. ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Taiwan , Japan , Vietnam , Republic-of , Indonesia , China , Goto-group , Nagasaki , South-korea , United-kingdom , Philippines , White-house

Treasuries Retreat Despite Solid $25 Billion Sale: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street struggled to gain traction on Thursday, with the bond market digesting another big sale of Treasuries and stocks hovering near records. Bonds fell despite a strong $25 billion auction that reduced jitters about an oversupply. Equities closed little changed after the S&P 500 briefly hit 5,000 for the first time. A sense of caution prevailed as investors positioned for Friday’s consumer-price index revisions thinking about what happened a year ago: The update was significant enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress. “There is some talk that tomorrow’s CPI revisions could throw cold water on the recent good inflation numbers — but this is a wonky number,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “We think the next move comes off the CPI number next Tuesday.” Ahead of those figures, investors got a jobless claims reading that added to evidence of a still strong labor market and gave credence to the recent cautious rhetoric from central bank speakers. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin was the latest to reiterate policymakers have time to be patient about the timing of rate cuts. The S&P 500 closed at 4,997.97. As the earnings season rolled in, Walt Disney Co. and Arm Holdings Plc jumped on upbeat outlooks, while PayPal Holdings Inc. sank on an underwhelming forecast. Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.15%. Bitcoin topped $45,000. Oil rallied amid doubts over a potential cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. To Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, a solid jobs market and a resilient consumer continue to bode well for the economy and should push back on immediate recession concerns. Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley says the next few inflation reports may determine whether stocks will be able to keep setting new records in the near term. “We remain cautious,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. “On this front, we note narrowing of breadth, ongoing divergences in momentum, overbought conditions in leadership areas, and sentiment that can approach extremes relatively quickly.” From its March 2020 pandemic-low, the S&P 500 has more than doubled, with gains in the past year fueled by bets on a soft economic landing and optimism about the impact of artificial-intelligence over corporate earnings. While US stocks are now pricing in plenty of good news, UBS’s Chief Investment Office sees the potential for further gains in the event of a “Goldilocks” economic outcome. “Our base case remains for a soft landing for the US economy, with the S&P 500 ending the year around current levels,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “However, recent economic data have highlighted the potential for a period of continued stronger growth, tame inflation, and swifter monetary easing. In this event, we believe the S&P 500 has the potential to rise to around 5,300 this year.” Stronger-than-expected earnings are leading companies to announce share buybacks at a blistering pace as 2024 gets going — a potentially crucial pillar of support for stocks already trading at all-time highs. US companies have announced $105 billion in planned share repurchases in the first seven days of February, surpassing the full-month tally in January. It’s the strongest start to a February ever for announced buybacks and the second-best start to a year after 2023, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc. Meantime, a survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 56% of the investors polled think economic growth will be stronger than consensus estimates in 2024. That’s up from 35% two weeks ago. Recession odds are down to 7%. The tally also showed that tech is the “most-popular long” for the rest of 2024. An index of sentiment among chief executive officers of US companies has turned positive for the first time in two years, according to the Conference Board. Stocks have tended to rally after the first Fed rate cut, but the phase of the economic cycle matters, according to Ed Clissold at Ned Davis Research. The strongest performance has come during soft landings, while the weakest has come when the economy entered recession less than a year after the first cut. “Growth has outperformed value after first cuts — especially during slow cycles,” Clissold wrote in a note entitled: “Dear Jay: move slowly. Sincerely, the bulls.” Big tech — the group that’s powered the equity resurgence — is bringing in more cash than ever before, priming the group to return money to shareholders and potentially adding fuel to a rally that’s already sent most of the group into record territory. The five biggest technology companies that have reported earnings so far — Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. — generated a record $139.5 billion of combined cash from operations in the quarter that ended on Dec. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At these levels, the equity market appears overbought — but the fact is that many traders don’t want to miss out on continued gains. That has prompted outsized interest in options contracts that provide upside exposure for minimal premium. The premium in implied volatility of 3-month 10-delta calls to 40-delta calls hovers around its highest in a decade, as pointed out by Susquehanna International Group. That relationship signals added demand for call options implying higher gains relative to those seeking more modest advances. Increasingly, traders are turning to the cheap contracts to position for broad market advances without having to purchase pricey benchmarks. Corporate Highlights: Walt Disney Co. reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter and issued an upbeat profit outlook for the year, giving Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger ammunition to deflect proxy challenges at its shareholder meeting this spring. Chip designer Arm Holdings Plc issued a surprisingly bullish earnings forecast, showing its push beyond smartphones is helping fuel growth. PayPal Holdings Inc. said it expects earnings to be flat this year as it continues to cut costs and streamline its operations. Harley-Davidson Inc. eked out a fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates as sales fell as the rugged American brand boost incentives to offset high-borrowing costs on slow-selling motorcycles. Under Armour Inc. raised its outlook for full-year earnings, with cost cuts in its turnaround effort making up for a continued decline in revenue. Philip Morris International Inc. forecast high single digit profit growth in 2024 as shipments of its Zyn nicotine pouches surge in the US, offsetting lower cigarette sales. Spirit Airlines Inc., fighting to preserve its acquisition by JetBlue Airways Corp., said revenue will increase this quarter more than analysts were expecting and that it has the liquidity needed to stand on its own even as concerns mount about its financial future. Key events this week: US CPI revisions, Friday Germany CPI, Friday President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% The MSCI World index was little changed Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% The euro was little changed at $1.0777 The British pound was little changed at $1.2619 The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 149.27 per dollar Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 2.8% to $45,435.07 Ether fell 0.3% to $2,423.82 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.15% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.35% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.05% Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.5% to $76.45 a barrel Spot gold was little changed This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Carly Wanna, Alexandra Semenova, Allegra Catelli, Jessica Menton, Elena Popina, Michael Msika and Subrat Patnaik. ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

White-house , District-of-columbia , United-states , Germany , Israel , United-kingdom , Texas , New-york , Japan , German , Britain , Japanese

Stocks Extend Advance After Wall Street's Record: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Global equities powered higher, with US futures pointing to another record for Wall Street, as investors continued to bet on falling interest rates and a strong earnings season. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.5%, with banking, real estate and tech stocks among those leading the advance. Futures contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.6%, while those on the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, after it became the last of the three major US equity benchmarks to reach a record closing high. Equity markets have shrugged off January’s rise in bond yields on optimism over the US economy’s resilience, conviction that central banks will start cutting interest rates later this year and signs the artificial-intelligence boom is set to continue. Meanwhile, results from a majority of S&P 500 companies have surprised positively during the latest earnings season. “We are heading into an environment where the economic slowdown seems to be more of a soft landing, at the same time we are talking about rate cuts,” said Jun Bei Liu, a fund manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. “All of that together does look pretty positive for the equity market.” In US premarket trading, tech shares gained, led by Western Digital Corp. and Paypal Holdings Inc., ahead of this week’s earnings releases from Netflix Inc,. Tesla Inc. and Intel Corp. The so-called Magnificent Seven companies are expected to deliver combined profit growth of about 46%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. European markets have been underperforming their tech-heavy US rivals, and remain in the red for the year so far. Monday’s main stock moves were driven by M&A, with Swedish online gambling firm Kindred Group Plc jumping 19% after La Francaise des Jeux SA offered to buy it for 27.95 billion kronor ($2.7 billion). Worldline SA rose as much as 6% after Credit Agricole acquired a 7% stake in the payments firm. Investor attention is turning to meetings at the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and the European Central Bank Thursday, with both institutions likely to leave their policy settings unchanged. US fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday could offer clues on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Ten-year US Treasury yields flatlined at about 4.1%, standing more than 20 basis points higher than end-2023 levels as Fed officials have pushed back against expectations of early rate cuts. Even so, bond markets were given reason for optimism by Friday’s University of Michigan survey, which showed a mix of high consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations, and many analysts expect yields to drop in the coming weeks. Meanwhile in European debt markets, Italy’s yield premium over Germany, a key measure of risk in the region, shrank to its narrowest since April 2022 as investors rushed to lock in some of the region’s highest rates before the ECB embarks on easing monetary policy. Official borrowing costs on 10-year debt fell six basis points to 3.82% on on Monday, reducing the spread to German’s benchmark to 152 basis points at 8:14 a.m. in London — down from over 200 basis points in late October. Earlier, Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong dropped 2.4%, approaching a 2005 low, and mainland Chinese stock indexes also fell as banks kept lending rates unchanged, after the central bank refrained last week from cutting borrowing costs. Japanese shares extended gains, meanwhile, up more than 9% year-to-date. Oil fell as OPEC member Libya restarted output at its largest field, bolstering global supplies and helping offset concerns that Red Sea shipping tensions will disrupt energy supply. Key events this week: US Conference Board leading index, Monday Bank of Japan rate decision, Tuesday Eurozone consumer confidence, Tuesday Netflix Inc. to report earnings; the streaming service is set to post a strong finish to 2023, Tuesday Japan trade, Wednesday Eurozone S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday UK S&P Global / CIPS Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday US S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday Tesla Inc., International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) to report earnings, Wednesday European Central Bank rate decision, Thursday Germany IFO business climate, Thursday US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, wholesale inventories, new home sales, Thursday LVMH, Northrop Grumman Corp., SK Hynix Inc. to report earnings, Thursday Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday Bank of Japan issues minutes of policy meeting, Friday US personal income & spending, Friday In China, the holiday rush starts ahead of next month’s Lunar New Year, Friday Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% as of 9:58 a.m. London time S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.6% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was unchanged at $1.0898 The Japanese yen was unchanged at 148.12 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2029 per dollar The British pound was little changed at $1.2705 Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $40,693.25 Ether fell 3.4% to $2,388.49 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.12% Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.30% Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.90% Commodities Brent crude was little changed Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,021.88 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Garfield Reynolds, Nicholas Reynolds and Jason Scott. ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Sydney , New-south-wales , Australia , United-kingdom , Red-sea , Djibouti-general- , Djibouti , Sweden , China , Singapore , Michigan , United-states

Davos Live: Carlyle's Rubenstein Sees Rate Cuts Triggering M&A

(Bloomberg) -- After a politics-heavy couple of days — including JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon telling US Democrats to “grow up” — the focus shifted to finance on day four of the World Economic Forum and the mood so far has been positive. Carlyle Group’s David Rubenstein expects dealmaking to pick up after a likely cut in interest rates, with others optimistic about profits and expansion. Highlights still to come Thursday include a panel on uniting European markets with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing and a Bloomberg TV interview with UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Bloomberg’s team of reporters is bringing you the highlights of what’s happening on the ground. You can sign up for our daily newsletter here. And if you’re in Davos, don’t forget to drop by Bloomberg House. Register here. (Times CET) Talk of the Town Buoyant Bankers (12:30 p.m.) It’s been a morning of upbeat messaging from finance executives with Goldman Sachs’ Richard Gnodde talking expansion, Andrea Orcel saying he’s certain UniCredit will hit profitability goals and Carlyle’s Rubenstein — a Bloomberg contributor — predicting an M&A rebound. It might be tricky for new Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick to strike a similarly jaunty tone when he talks to Bloomberg later. His bank’s earnings disappointed investors on Tuesday after its traders fell short of expectations and executives indicated lower wealth-management margins may prove persistent. We’ll also be hearing from Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman and Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan. Will the merry sentiment continue? Read more about the financial mood here: Carlyle’s Rubenstein Sees M&A Pickup as Rates Drop in 2024 UniCredit CEO Certain of Hitting Targets Amid Global Turmoil Barclays CEO Defends Investment Bankers Ahead of Investor Day Uranium Stockpiles (10:45 a.m.) Back in the world of politics, it’s much less positive. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has continued accelerating its accumulation of uranium enriched close to weapons grade and now has enough of the material to produce several nuclear warheads. While the IAEA hasn’t detected any uranium diverted for weapons, the Persian Gulf nation’s stonewalling of investigators raises suspicions, Rafael Mariano Grossi told Bloomberg TV. “It is a very frustrating cycle,” he said. “We don’t understand why they don’t provide the necessary transparency.” Red Sea Turmoil (10:15 a.m.) The cost of insuring ships sailing through the Red Sea has gone up about tenfold, Marsh & McLennan CEO John Doyle said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Some shipowners aren’t willing to put their crew and their vessels through the vital waterway, he said. Doyle described the shipping sector globally as a major challenge at the moment for the clients that Marsh advises. Long Haul (9 a.m.) Speaking at the Ukraine breakfast discussion Thursday morning, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned Europe to be prepared to support Ukraine for a long fight against Russia, and that help should include confiscating Russian assets. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the country’s leaders were “encouraged and reassured” after meetings in Davos. He added that if frozen assets in the UK, Luxembourg and Switzerland were seized, there would be enough money to fix all of Ukraine’s damaged infrastructure. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron reiterated that UK is with Ukraine for as long as it takes and said he hopes EU and US will unlock funds soon. ‘Grow Up’ Democrats (9 a.m.) Dimon’s comments in a CNBC interview praising aspects of Donald Trump’s record in office will sting in the corridors of power in Washington and might reflect Wall Street’s openness to Trump 2.0. “Just take a step back, be honest,” Dimon said. “He’s kind of right about NATO, kind of right about immigration, he grew the economy quite well.” “He wasn’t wrong about some of these critical issues and that’s why they’re voting for him,” he added, calling for more respect for Trump voters and urging people to think more about why citizens support him. “I think this negative talk about MAGA is going to hurt Biden’s election campaign,” Dimon said. In Case You Missed It ECB officials who until recently had been wary of even discussing interest-rate cuts now look increasingly open to commencing them in June. French President Emmanuel Macron backed the issuance of joint European debt to pay for priorities including defense and technology in order to ensure Europe remains sovereign amid increasing competition with China and the US. There’s a repeated refrain from bankers in Davos this week, including the likes of JPMorgan’s Daniel Pinto and Standard Chartered’s Bill Winters: rein in your rate cut expectations. Too much debt — and the danger that global economies could take on even more of it — is troubling Davos participants confronting dangers posed by the year ahead. Davos After Dark A long queue of attendees waited for a spot at a McKinsey nightcap at the Ameron Hotel. Partners Sven Smit and Liz Hilton Segel enjoyed cocktails and food with global execs as a lively band dressed in silver and neon entertained the crowd, which included Unilever boss Hein Schumacher. The festivities aren’t all fun and games for some. Samir Mastaki and his partner Irina Biss waited two years to get a room at the Belvedere Hotel to host a party featuring minestrone and other delicacies in a bid to launch a business idea selling Italy-themed networking. It’s a big gamble. A room at the Belvedere — one of the top locations — can cost about 100,000 Swiss francs ($115,480) for just a few hours. And there’s competition everywhere. The couple attracted a relatively small crowd compared to a throbbing adjacent event hosted by tech company Hedera. While the entrepreneurs are hoping for big-name sponsors next year, the event on Wednesday only got minor supporters and guests were initially asked for about 5,000 francs for a seat. Many snuck in for free. AI Buzz High Stakes (2 p.m.) Sam Altman said that his dramatic and quickly-reversed firing from OpenAI was less nerve-wracking than the task of making artificial intelligence as capable as humans. Altman’s ouster by the board in November was “probably not the most stressful experience we ever face,” he said during a panel about technology in a turbulent world. The episode had taught the company to avoid letting “not-urgent problems” linger, the ChatGPT-maker’s chief executive officer and co-founder added. As the world gets closer to human-equivalent AI, “the stakes, the stress, the level of tension — that’s all going to go up,” Altman said. Accenture Hubs (8:30 a.m.) UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is planning to meet with executives from technology giants like Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. in Davos later today as part of a push to spur investment in Britain’s tech sector. It sounds like Accenture’s Julie Sweet is already on board. “The UK is an absolutely critical market for us” and “we see the UK as being a very important place for us to invest over the long term,” Sweet, who leads the consultancy giant’s nearly 750,000-person workforce as chairman and chief executive officer, told Bloomberg TV. Read More: Accenture to Open 10 AI Hubs Globally, Including One in London One of the 10 generative AI “innovation hubs” Accenture plans to open globally will be in London, she added. Just months after shedding 19,000 workers, Sweet’s firm announced plans to double the number of staffers that specialize in AI to 80,000, part of a three-year, $3 billion investment in Accenture’s data and AI practice. In the House Green Disconnect (9 a.m.) There’s plenty of money to be made by investing in the green energy transition, and financial professionals who say otherwise aren’t paying attention to the facts, according to Brookfield Asset Management Chair Mark Carney. Read More: Carney Sees ‘Massive Disconnect’ in Green Finance Rhetoric During a conversation at Bloomberg House on Wednesday,

Italy , Ukraine , United-kingdom , China , Switzerland , Davos , Switzerland-general- , France , Brookfield , Washington , United-states , Red-sea

Oil Rises as Middle East Tensions Ratchet Higher, Equities Gain

(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose alongside equities, with the widening conflict in the Middle East adding to crude’s gain. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.1% to settle above $74 a barrel for the first time this year, with crude futures tracking broader markets for much of the session. Geopolitical risks also bolstered prices as the US struck more than a dozen Houthi missiles in Yemen, its latest response to the Tehran-backed group’s repeated attacks on shipping. Elsewhere, Pakistan carried out retaliatory strikes in Iran. Meanwhile in the US, crude stockpiles dropped 2.49 million barrels last week and now are at the lowest level since October, according to an Energy Information Administration report Thursday. Despite the muted activity in headline prices in recent days — WTI futures have traded in a roughly $6 band so far this year — there have been some bigger moves further along the curve. Key timespreads in the US surged on Wednesday as a chunk of domestic production was curtailed by cold weather. Crude has remained rangebound in the opening weeks of the year, looking for direction amid the escalating crisis in the Middle East and bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later than had been expected. Traders are also gauging the impact of supply cuts from OPEC and its allies. The Paris-based IEA said supply from the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana will lead to another year of robust additions from outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. To get Bloomberg’s Energy Daily newsletter into your inbox, click here. ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Yemen , Guyana , Iran , Canada , Pakistan , Tehran , Paris , France-general- , France , Brazil , Texas , United-states

Six reasons why Switzerland is one of the most globalised countries

Little Switzerland regularly comes first in the Globalisation Index, but why?

Russia , Geneva , Genè , Switzerland , Ukraine , France , United-states , Slovenia , Belgium , Netherlands , Austria , Luxembourg

Asia LNG Hits Seven-Month Low as Winter Crunch Fears Ease

(Bloomberg) -- North Asian liquefied natural gas prices fell to the lowest in nearly seven months as an outlook for milder weather and high inventories reduced the need to buy more fuel for winter. Spot rates dropped to about $9.80 per million British thermal units on Tuesday, the lowest since mid-June, according to traders. Supply is ample, with exporters from Angola to Papua New Guinea offering to sell shipments this week, they said. Prices of the heating and power plant fuel have almost halved since mid-October, providing relief for households and businesses that were hit by higher bills after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 sparked a global energy crisis. European gas futures have also dropped as a spell of frigid weather is expected to be over by next week. High gas inventories across North Asia, home to the biggest LNG buyers, also means there’s no immediate pressure to procure additional fuel. Temperatures are forecast to be above seasonal norms in China and the Korean peninsula from Jan. 9-17, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Still, the drop is prompting some interest from more price sensitive customers in emerging markets. Buyers in India and Thailand are looking for cargoes for February, according to traders, which may help to establish a floor for prices. Other spot market news: Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is seeking to buy at least one LNG cargo for delivery between Jan. 23 and March 31 Bangladesh’s sate-run Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Co. is seeking one LNG cargo for Feb. 6-7 delivery Angola LNG offered to sell three cargoes on a DES basis for March-July delivery Petronas offered to sell an LNG cargo on a DES basis for Feb. delivery to North Asia Exxon-operated Papua New Guinea LNG sold a cargo on a FOB basis for late-Jan. loading at a discount to the JKM benchmark Buy tenders: Sell tenders: --With assistance from Dan Murtaugh. (Updates with spot market news after fifth paragraph.) ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Kuwait , Bangladesh , Russia , Ukraine , Papua-new-guinea , Angola , Thailand , China , United-kingdom , India , British , Dan-murtaugh

China Woes Cast Markets Shadow as New Year Starts: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- Markets opened the year on a cautious footing as mounting tensions in the Red Sea drove oil prices higher and weak Chinese data weighed on Asian shares. US equity futures were little changed, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded 0.3% higher, buoyed by oil companies as traders awaited euro-zone manufacturing statistics. Chinese shares fell after the factory data and a speech from President Xi Jinping that flagged headwinds facing the economy. Oil jumped jumped after Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea in response to the US Navy’s sinking of three Houthi boats over the weekend, adding to pressure as ships continue to avoid the key waterway. Bitcoin climbed above $45,000 for the first time in almost two years as anticipation of an approval of an exchange-traded fund investing directly in the biggest token intensified. Signs of exhaustion have emerged after a more than $8 trillion surge in the S&P 500 last year. “With an especially rare S&P nine-week winning streak already in the books, the index into resistance near the 4,800 level, and daily and weekly overbought readings, too, these factors combine to say we should expect some type of a consolidation, correction, or pullback — something,” John Roque, technical analyst at 22V Research, wrote in a note. Sentiment in Asia was also dented after people familiar said ASML Holding NV, which makes semiconductor manufacturing equipment, canceled shipments of some of its machines to China at the request of US President Joe Biden’s administration. The yen weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers in thin trading as investors monitored conditions after an earthquake in Japan on Monday. President Xi in his annual new year address televised Sunday pledged to strengthen economic momentum and job creation, while conceding some “enterprises had a tough time” and “people had difficulty finding jobs and meeting basic needs.” Despite the persisting weakness in China, some investors consider a slump of almost 60% is a signal to buy Chinese stocks. Almost a third of 417 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey say they will increase their China investments over the next 12 months. Key events this week: Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday UK S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday Germany unemployment, Wednesday US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Wednesday China Caixin services PMI, Thursday Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Thursday US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, Thursday Eurozone CPI, PPI, Friday US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday Some of the main moves in markets: Stocks The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% as of 8:19 a.m. London time S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.6% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1029 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 141.33 per dollar The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.1368 per dollar The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2751 Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 4.9% to $45,758.51 Ether rose 2.7% to $2,400.49 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.93% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.08% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 3.61% Commodities Brent crude rose 1.5% to $78.20 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,073.65 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Joanna Ossinger and Zhu Lin. ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Red-sea , Djibouti-general- , Djibouti , Shanghai , China , United-kingdom , Hong-kong , Iran , Japan , Germany , Tokyo , Taiwan

Asia Stocks Mixed, Currencies Gain in Thin Trading: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) -- US equity futures edged higher while the dollar extended losses as trading resumed after the Christmas holiday amid investor expectations for earlier and deep interest rate cuts next year. Stocks in Asia were mixed in a thin trading session with markets including Hong Kong, New Zealand and Australia shut. Emerging Asian currencies rose, with South Korea’s won and the Malaysian ringgit leading gains against a weak dollar that fell for a third straight session to its lowest in almost five months. Some on Wall Street are positioning for further stock gains ahead as the session kicked off the start of the “Santa Claus rally” — a seasonal trend where equities tend to climb into the first few days of the new year. The S&P 500 notched an eight-week winning streak on Friday — the longest in more than five years on signs price pressures in the US were easing. Treasuries were little changed in Asia trading. “As for emerging markets in Asia, ‘silent night’ says much, given that there isn’t particularly inspired trading, with Wall Street equivocating ahead of Christmas,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank. “It looks like a case of averting the China drag and hanging on to earlier Santa rallies being the best case for Boxing day - boxing in risks.” Stocks fell in mainland China, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index headed for its first decline in four sessions, as investor sentiment remains weak even after the authorities softened their stance following a move last week to tighten curbs on the videogame industry. Elsewhere, Singapore’s core inflation edged lower in November, giving the central bank room to extend its monetary-policy pause next month to support the economy. Japan’s auction of two-year sovereign debt saw tepid investor appetite, sending a gauge of demand to the weakest in a year, amid speculation the central bank will end negative interest rates in 2024. Its labor market remained relatively tight in November, keeping pressure on employers to boost wages in order to fill positions. The benchmark Topix index traded within tight ranges after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech on Monday that suggested he’s in no hurry to end the ultra-easy monetary policy. “With the Nikkei 225 at high levels, year-end selling to lock in profits and losses is likely to weigh on the upside,” says Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management. In the corporate world, Chinese gaming shares outperformed the benchmark after a number of companies announced plans to repurchase their shares following news of the latest government curbs on the sector. Cathie Wood last week made her first purchase of shares in LY Corp. in over a year, indicating a possible shift toward more positive sentiment on the operator of Yahoo! Japan and popular messaging app Line. Oil rose slightly after posting the largest weekly gain in more than two months, with shipping disruptions in the Red Sea in focus after a spate of Houthi attacks against vessels in the vital waterway. West Texas Intermediate traded near $74 a barrel, after rallying by 3% in the prior week, the biggest advance since October. Geopolitical tensions still remain front of investors minds into the new year as tensions in the Middle East look set to increase. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel will pay a price for killing a senior commander of its Revolutionary Guard in air strike in Damascus on Monday. The US accused Iran at the weekend of an attack on a tanker in the Indian Ocean. READ: Israel Sees Defense Spending Climbing $8 Billion as War Rages US Growth Resilience Global markets have been buoyed in recent months as traders bet major central banks including the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates next year as inflation falls. Bond yields have tumbled while the S&P 500 is nearing a fresh record. Data released last week showed signs of resilience in US growth while the Fed’s preferred underlying inflation metric barely rose in November. Additional reports Friday showed consumers were also gaining conviction that inflation in the world’s largest economy was on the right track despite a bumpy housing market recovery. That helped cement investor expectations for earlier and deeper interest rate cuts next year, despite pushback from several Fed policymakers. Swaps traders are betting interest rates will be eased by more than 150 basis points in 2024, double the Fed’s forecast. Read more: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauges Cool, Reinforcing Rate-Cut Tilt Key events this week: BOJ releases summery of opinions from December meeting, Wednesday China industrial profits, Wednesday Norway retail sales, Wednesday Japan industrial production, Thursday South Korea industrial production, Thursday Thailand trade, Thursday Mexico unemployment, Thursday Bank of Portugal releases quarterly report on banking system, Thursday South Korea CPI, Friday Spain CPI, Friday UK nationwide house prices, Friday Brazil unemployment, Friday Chile unemployment, Friday Colombia unemployment, Friday Some moves in major markets: Stocks S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 2:10 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix fell 0.1% The Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% Currencies The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1022 The Japanese yen was little changed at 142.25 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1495 per dollar The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to $0.6815 Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $43,383.48 Ether fell 0.2% to $2,266.8 Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.89% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 1.5 basis points to 0.625% Australia’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 4.01% Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $73.82 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,064.28 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. --With assistance from Akemi Terukina. ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Malaysia , Australia , South-korea , Colombia , Norway , Mexico , Brazil , Mizuho , Hokkaido , Japan , Chile , New-zealand